Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[movingtarget]

virus mutation

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2020/05/501_287862.html

 

[movingtarget]

sexual transmission

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...n/news-story/a67acb7a5125de110e98992b3ab98c26

 

[Merckx index]

An antibody test across Belgium (c. 3500 samples) suggests that around mid-April, about 6% (i.e. 650.000 people) had covid antibodies.

Which would put the mortality rate at about 1.0%.

virus mutation

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/world/2020/05/501_287862.html

According to the link, the mutation is thought to reduce affinity for ACE2, which would weaken the virus's effectiveness. So I don't see how that strain could flourish, unless it was able to infect large numbers of people with much reduced symptoms, in which case it would be like seasonal flu, or even more benign.

Beyond that, I doubt very much that a single aa mutation would change the conformation of the RBD such that all antibodies made to that region would become ineffective. It's known that some antibodies to the original SARS-CoV cross-react with SARS-CoV-2, and their RBD differ by about 50 aa, or 25%. There also are other portions of the spike protein that I believe some researchers are trying to develop antibodies to.

 

[Jagartrott]

Do you have a link to that? I'd be interested in sharing this.

This is a translated article from a Dutch newspaper:

Philip overcame corona, but turns out not to be immune: 'He did not make antibodies'

Three months ago, Philip Soubry (54) was the only Belgian infected with the corona virus. After eleven days of quarantine, he was declared cured. A new test shows that he did not produce antibodies at all during his illness and is therefore probably not immune. Professor Katrien Lagrou, head of clinical microbiology at the university hospital in Leuven, confirms that the test is reliable.

Soubry was Belgium's first corona patient after being repatriated in early February from the Chinese city of Wuhan, which then went into lockdown. The man in his fifties tested positive for the virus on arrival in Belgium. He ended up in the Sint-Pieter hospital in Brussels and was quarantined for eleven days. He was never sick: he had no cough, no runny nose, no fever and was certainly not short of breath.

"It is only now that I realize that I have been lucky," he says. "I am not one of the youngest anymore and I take medication for the heart." During his stay, Soubry became the most famous patient in the country and noticed it later. “After I was released from the hospital, they sometimes asked me for a photo in the cafe. "Take a selfie and get a free pint," people said. Now I am not asked this anymore, fortunately. "

The Belgian currently resides in Kortrijk in Flanders, but has already traveled twice in the past few months to Parma where he had to work in the Italian branch of LVD Group, his employer. Soubry has also been working for machine builders in China for more than five years. ,, The first time my colleague and I were able to take the plane to Italy, but we had to flee there at the end of February because the north went into lockdown. The next time we went by car, through Luxembourg, Germany and Austria. I thought I could go anywhere safely, because the doctor in Brussels had told me: "You are immune, you can never get the virus again." But on Wednesday I suddenly got other news. ”

Always a mouth mask

Because Soubry has a small cold, and his employer wants everyone who travels to and from abroad to be tested, he went to a lab in Ghent on Tuesday. There he was tested for corona and also underwent an immunity test to see if he had produced antibodies. The result was negative twice: so I don't have a corona, but more strikingly: I don't seem immune either. Fortunately, I always pay close attention and have been wearing a mouth mask for weeks. I have already visited my parents. ”

Professor Katrien Lagrou, head of the clinical microbiology lab at UZ Leuven, confirms that the tests are reliable. "I prefer to speak of an antibody test rather than an immunity test," she says. "Even if antibodies are found in someone who has been infected, it doesn't mean that the person is actually immune to the virus."

No antibodies were found in Soubry's blood. "That is probably because he was not ill and therefore the virus went through asymptomatic," the professor continues. ,, Previous studies on antibodies have been done in patients who have been seriously ill and have been hospitalized. This showed that the vast majority had indeed built up antibodies. In any case, the results are limited: very few people have generally been tested. ”

So it may be a coincidence that Soubry is not immune, she concludes. ,, But it is equally possible that those who have never had a fever or have never been seriously ill, like him, have never developed antibodies and can therefore be carriers a second time. It seems very unlikely that he once produced antibodies and that they would have disappeared from his body by now. No one knows for sure. A lot of research still needs to be done. ”

 

[Jagartrott]

I've heard that these are smaller and easier to mass produce than antibodies, which are difficult to produce. That is one reason why Humira costs so much. They should also better penetrate the tissues, but they do have a much shorter half-life and I would worry about serum sickness. Interesting more for the future than COVID19 IMO.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1258105499611877376

View: https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1258105499611877376

A news story (again translated):

Human interaction with bats has burdened us with a new coronavirus. The remedy may come from a llama and, indirectly, from a Flemish professor with stubborn students and a supply of dromedary blood. Xavier Saelens has little time, because he will soon be on Canadian radio. The researcher at UGent and the Flemish Institute for Biotechnology (VIB) will explain how a Flemish llama currently has antibodies in her blood against the coronavirus sars-CoV-2 and how that could lead to a medicine against the fatal lung disease covid-19.

The llama is four years old, is called Winter and lives with 130 peers on a farm in Antwerp. In a study conducted by Saelens with colleagues from Texas, the llama was brought into contact with proteins from sars and mers viruses, so that she would produce antibodies against it. The antibodies in blood Winters prove now presumably be suitable to a similar virus that did not exist when the study began, the new coronavirus that human slaughter since the end of 2019 makes sacrifices Saelens hopes to warn against rushing euphoria. It will be months before the Winter antibodies can be tested on humans. The road to a usable medicine is even longer, dotted with obstacles and perhaps dead.
Antibodies are proteins produced by an immune system to, for example, defuse a virus. They do this by attaching themselves to the tentacles that the virus uses to enter cells. It is not uncommon for human medicines to be based on such antibodies. But why would a researcher work with antibodies from llamas if he can also do this with smaller, more handy animals? This is an indirect consequence of a difficult course at the faculty of biology of the VUB in 1989.

Sleeping sickness
That lab was led by Professor Raymond Hamers, who asked his students to isolate antibodies from blood. His then assistant, Serge Muyldermans, still happily tells that story. 'The idea was that the students would isolate antibodies from the blood of a human volunteer, which was then still possible. But the students refused, because they were afraid of becoming infected with HIV or hepatitis. We understood that. We suggested killing a mouse and using that blood, but they also found it unethical. We were pissed. It seemed as if they just wanted to avoid doing the practical. Fortunately, we still had blood from a dromedary from Mali in the refrigerator, the remainder of an investigation into sleeping sickness. The students could think of no objections and went to work, but the antibodies they found were much smaller than the animal antibodies we knew. It is to the credit of Hamers that he did not see that as a failure, but went to work with it. That characterizes him. He was interested in everything. That's why it was so nice to work for him. You could do anything you suggested. "

Raymond Hamers soon saw that certain camelid antibodies, such as the dromedary, are smaller because they consist of only one protein, while the antibodies of other complex animals, such as humans and mice, are a combination of two different proteins. That seemed absurd, but Hamers soon saw the benefits. Smaller antibodies can reach places on the surface of a virus where larger ones can be difficult . The fact that an active antibody can be made from one molecule, rather than a combination of two, also seemed to facilitate the reproduction of antibodies in laboratories.

It took hard work and a lot of extra investment to prove those suspicions. Because smaller antibodies were first discovered in a dromedary, the researchers initially went to great lengths to get more dromedary blood. It took them a while to realize that the size and character of llamas made them slightly easier to work with.

Ablynx
It took much longer before the technique could lead to a useful drug. To do that, Hamers, Muyldermans and a few others founded a company in 2004, Ablynx, which still exists today and has around 450 employees, but no longer as an independent company. Antibodies made by llamas are reproduced by Ablynx through genetically modified yeast cells, making it much easier to produce large amounts. Because the first patents on the insights of Raymond Hamers have expired, other companies and institutions are also working with antibodies from llamas. Ablynx is not involved in the research of Xavier Saelens and his colleagues. In 2018, when it was about to make the first useful drug from llama antibodies against a blood disorder, Ablynx was bought for € 3.9 billion by the French pharmaceutical group Sanofi (Dromedary leads to billions of dollars, DS February 3, 2018) .

Ablynx still has more than a hundred laboratory animals. Half of them are llamas, the others are alpacas, which look like llamas but are smaller. That makes them even easier to handle. Carlo Boutton, who works with the animals at Ablynx, emphasizes that the tests are not particularly painful or harmful. He compares the pain of inserting a virus with the pain a person feels when he gets a flu shot. Blood samples then follow. The animals are only used for a few years. After that, they are not killed, like most lab animals, but placed in a herd of 'retired' animals. Since 2017, they have been given up for adoption to people whose ability to care for the animals has been assessed in advance.

According to several researchers who have worked closely with him, the chances of a discovery such as that of Professor Hamers have decreased today. Jan Steyaert, who was involved in the founding of Ablynx, still teaches at the VUB and has also started several other companies, says Hamers' success demonstrates the value of 'fundamental research initiated by the researcher'. 'Researchers have less and less time for this, because the funding of their research often depends on well-defined results. That's not a good thing for accidental discoveries. ”

Serge Muyldermans agrees. The success of the lamas antibodies can also be seen as an anthropocentric argument for the conservation of biodiversity. Animal species that become extinct due to human activity may also have special properties that can eventually lead to medicines against deadly human diseases. Finally, you can also read the 1989 practical story as a plea for empowered students and resourceful professors. If Hamers' students had been more accommodating, he might have missed the discovery of his life.

 

[search]

The half life for IgG is about 21 days. Once the antigen is cleared, antibody starts to wane. It is quite a bit more involved to detect whether there are memory T and B cells in the people who have recovered. Just one more mystery that scientists lack a good answer for.

yes, and the antibodies are only an indication for immunity - but not having them show up in a test (anymore) doesn't necessarily mean that the person is not immune.

Another explanation is, that the early PCR test was just faulty, and he never was infected at all.

 

[hrotha]

This is a translated article from a Dutch newspaper:

Philip overcame corona, but turns out not to be immune: 'He did not make antibodies'

Three months ago, Philip Soubry (54) was the only Belgian infected with the corona virus. After eleven days of quarantine, he was declared cured. A new test shows that he did not produce antibodies at all during his illness and is therefore probably not immune. Professor Katrien Lagrou, head of clinical microbiology at the university hospital in Leuven, confirms that the test is reliable.

Soubry was Belgium's first corona patient after being repatriated in early February from the Chinese city of Wuhan, which then went into lockdown. The man in his fifties tested positive for the virus on arrival in Belgium. He ended up in the Sint-Pieter hospital in Brussels and was quarantined for eleven days. He was never sick: he had no cough, no runny nose, no fever and was certainly not short of breath.

"It is only now that I realize that I have been lucky," he says. "I am not one of the youngest anymore and I take medication for the heart." During his stay, Soubry became the most famous patient in the country and noticed it later. “After I was released from the hospital, they sometimes asked me for a photo in the cafe. "Take a selfie and get a free pint," people said. Now I am not asked this anymore, fortunately. "

The Belgian currently resides in Kortrijk in Flanders, but has already traveled twice in the past few months to Parma where he had to work in the Italian branch of LVD Group, his employer. Soubry has also been working for machine builders in China for more than five years. ,, The first time my colleague and I were able to take the plane to Italy, but we had to flee there at the end of February because the north went into lockdown. The next time we went by car, through Luxembourg, Germany and Austria. I thought I could go anywhere safely, because the doctor in Brussels had told me: "You are immune, you can never get the virus again." But on Wednesday I suddenly got other news. ”

Always a mouth mask

Because Soubry has a small cold, and his employer wants everyone who travels to and from abroad to be tested, he went to a lab in Ghent on Tuesday. There he was tested for corona and also underwent an immunity test to see if he had produced antibodies. The result was negative twice: so I don't have a corona, but more strikingly: I don't seem immune either. Fortunately, I always pay close attention and have been wearing a mouth mask for weeks. I have already visited my parents. ”

Professor Katrien Lagrou, head of the clinical microbiology lab at UZ Leuven, confirms that the tests are reliable. "I prefer to speak of an antibody test rather than an immunity test," she says. "Even if antibodies are found in someone who has been infected, it doesn't mean that the person is actually immune to the virus."

No antibodies were found in Soubry's blood. "That is probably because he was not ill and therefore the virus went through asymptomatic," the professor continues. ,, Previous studies on antibodies have been done in patients who have been seriously ill and have been hospitalized. This showed that the vast majority had indeed built up antibodies. In any case, the results are limited: very few people have generally been tested. ”

So it may be a coincidence that Soubry is not immune, she concludes. ,, But it is equally possible that those who have never had a fever or have never been seriously ill, like him, have never developed antibodies and can therefore be carriers a second time. It seems very unlikely that he once produced antibodies and that they would have disappeared from his body by now. No one knows for sure. A lot of research still needs to be done. ”

Thanks! I assumed asymptomatic people were those whose immune systems quietly developed antibodies to deal with the virus, goes to show how little I know about this. I'm not sure why they conclude he must never have developed antibodies, though. Again, I know veeery little about this, but shouldn't it be possible he had only short-lived antibodies and immunity? If I'm not mistaken, that's how it works with the coronaviruses that cause the common cold.

 

[Merckx index]

I assumed asymptomatic people were those whose immune systems quietly developed antibodies to deal with the virus

You're right about that. Asymptomatics are defined as people who have been exposed to the virus, made antibodies to it, but don't show symptoms. But some people may be exposed to very small loads of virus, and never make antibodies to them. The virus never enters target cells in quantities enough to trigger a response. I wouldn't call them asymptomatics. They're really not that different from someone who has touched the virus but washed it away.

That guy Phil sound as though he could have been a false positive.

 

[djpbaltimore]

It is plausible that some people clear the virus with IgM antibodies and a strong innate response before IgG develops. IgM producing plasma cells are rather short-lived AFAIK.

As to the mutation article, I think there has been little meaningful mutation because the current virus has found the optimal solution to spread through a species that has no pre-existing immunity. The selection process happened in 2019. Any meaningful change now is likely to make the mutant virus less competitive. This isn't like X-men. The virus is mutating according to sequence analysis, but only in regions that don't effect viral proteins. Where you might start to see mutants arise are in hotspots where immunity starts to create selective pressure for mutants that can evade neutralizing antibody responses. There has been talk recently about East coast vs West coast strains, but I think that is premature as what is likely happening is that there are founder effects leading to differences seen in different regions. An analogous thing happened with the different serovars of HIV. And as noted on twitter, there was a similar mutation scare during the Ebola outbreak that came to nothing.

This study is a little more rosy about the development of antibodies.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.30.20085613v1

Here we show that the vast majority of confirmed COVID19 patients seroconvert, potentially providing immunity to reinfection. We also report that in a large proportion of individuals, viral genome can be detected via PCR in the upper respiratory tract for weeks post symptom resolution, but it is unclear if this signal represents infectious virus.

 

[Oldermanish]

Speaking of wild West....health officials revealed some local intellects conducted a Coronavirus Party in Walla Walla, Washington State, USA. I think several dozen infected, one fatality.
And today the US suspended information from the CDC on a national forum as someone has deemed the opening of States is the responsibility of each Governor. Oh, a direct servant to the Prez tested positive; details on the pending 14 day Presidential quarantine have not been confirmed.

Update: 1. Walla Walla "party" was unintentional. Just a case of Stupid is as Stupid does as attendees knew others had been exposed.

1. CDC is expected to "amend" procedures and recommendations to Nation. Religious freedom is apparently a stumbling block for the WH.
2. Mike Pence (VP) aide also tested positive today. Total staff exposed not known but Administration meeting and travel plans apparently not changed to observe quarantine.

 

[djpbaltimore]

The name Katie was mentioned in the press scrum, so the aide in question is almost certainly Katie Miller, wife of Stephen Miller. I wonder if she got it from the valet?

This just goes to show how difficult it would be to keep the virus out of nursing homes if you can't effectively keep it out of the white house with all the testing resources in the world at their disposal.

Positive test rates in the DMV are all still over 20% indicating that the outbreak here is quite a bit worse than people realize. It is about 11% nationwide.

 

[Rollthedice]

The disaster in nursing homes was preventable and I'm talking all over the world where it occurred. It is a criminal negligence of the respective governments, they did not understand the scale and the implications of a major outbreak and did not act accordingly. If there are no strict measures, protocols, testing, isolating positives, disinfection, protection of the personnel then it's up to God or luck to survive if you're around 80 and stuck in a nursing home with other fellow humans of the same age and health problems. This is not right. Sure there would have been deaths but not at this scale.

 

[Merckx index]

The projection system I linked to about a week ago is ongoing, and now they project U.S. deaths by early August to be 182,000, up from 168,000. Obviously, there is a high degree of uncertainty, but their 2.5% percentile projection is 110,000 deaths. IOW, they regard the odds as 40:1 that there will be at least these many deaths.

Several posters here have noted the polls/evidence that even if the country is opened up in some states, large numbers of people won't participate. Major League Baseball is considering starting play with no fans, and while one of the biggest objections from players is being quarantined away from their families for months, one player just came out and said he regards playing as risking his life, and he doesn't see how MLB can compel him to do that if they do decide to start the season. These are guys in their 20s and 30s who should have a very low risk of dying, but this fear reflects not only uncertainty, and unwillingness to take an unnecessary gamble, but the fact that even young people might develop severe/critical cases, and as links upthread have pointed out, this can potentially affect them indefinitely even if they do survive.

I expect to see more objections like this, from ordinary workers who do not want to be put in the position of either risking getting the virus, or being perhaps replaced if they refuse to return to work when their business resumes. For many, opening up is actually bad news. As long as their state or locale was on lockdown, there was no conflict. They couldn't work, and couldn't be penalized for not working (other than not being paid, of course). But now that conflict is real.

This just goes to show how difficult it would be to keep the virus out of nursing homes if you can't effectively keep it out of the white house with all the testing resources in the world at their disposal.

I'm continually astonished to see no one wearing a mask or even practicing social distancing at these briefings. These are mostly old men, who are at significant risk, and even if they weren't, what kind of example does this set for everyone else?

Positive test rates in the DMV are all still over 20% indicating that the outbreak here is quite a bit worse than people realize. It is about 11% nationwide.

It was about 20% nationwide until recently. The lower figure seems to reflect an increase in tests, which is a little encouraging, though still nowhere near the rock bottom minimum of 500,000 per day that is said to be necessary for opening up (while millions per day is much more realistic for getting control of the situation). There still seems to be no serious talk about ramping up tests, at least not from the Administration, and i have seen an article from the right actually claiming that more tests are a waste of time and money, given their belief (and hope, obviously) that eventually the large majority will become positive.

The disaster in nursing homes was preventable

A prevailing view now seems to be that the spread is driven mostly by large numbers of people in relatively confined spaces. In addition to nursing homes and hospitals, we now have a major crisis in prisons. For people who are not institutionalized, the risk seems to be greatest in public places, like the super-spreading in European festivals, and probably in malls everywhere.

in other important news, the UK now has another Scientific Advisory Group:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/...0)31098-9/fulltext?dgcid=raven_jbs_etoc_email

 

[Jagartrott]

Another translated newspaper article:

Antibodies in your blood are not a promise that you are safe
Hundreds of thousands of Belgians have antibodies against sars-CoV-2 in the blood. What are they doing with that now?

In mid-April, an estimated 680,000 Belgians (6 percent) already had antibodies against the new coronavirus in their blood ( DS 8 May ). You would think they are among the lucky ones among us: they are now immune. 'But science is not yet ready for that,' says Herman Goossens, professor of microbiology at UZ Antwerp. Over the past week, he has plowed through dozens of papers to review the state of affairs and advise his colleagues on antibody testing.

1. Who gets antibodies ?

When the body fights against an invader such as the Sars-CoV-2 virus, the immune system produces specific antibodies. Therefore, anyone who has antibodies to sars-CoV-2 in the blood can be sure that he or she has previously had a sars-CoV-2 infection. With the emphasis on 'earlier', because it takes a while for the antibodies to form. Depending on the severity of the disease, this is faster or slower. Seriously ill covid-19 patients who need to be hospitalized will certainly make antibodies within two weeks.

2. Does any contamination lead to antibodies in the blood?

At best, healed patients cannot become sick and contagious a second time. But there is not yet a definite answer. Studies indicate that seriously ill covid-19 patients have a higher concentration of antibodies in the blood than patients with 'mild' fever, cough and / or shortness of breath. But today, due to a lack of large studies, it is unclear how many people with covid-19 do not make (or find little) antibodies. The same uncertainty reigns over the (large) group of patients who remain asymptomatic, who therefore had no fever, cough or other typical signs of Covid-19. Such as Philip Soubry, the first Belgian who was quarantined after a positive sars-CoV-2 virus test for a week and a half but did not feel anything about the infection. Soubry now appears to have no antibodies in the blood. Whether the man is an exception is unclear.

3. Protect antibodies against a new infection?

That is the key question. Because that stands or falls with 'group immunity', in which cured patients with antibodies in the blood become natural obstacles in the spread of the virus. At best, healed patients cannot become sick and contagious a second time. It remains to wait for a decision, says Goossens. 'Studies in the lab have already shown that patients' antibodies adhere well to the virus and thus neutralize it. This is a good sign, but we do not yet have any data from healed patients who are monitored over time to see how high the concentration of antibodies in the blood is. We don't know how those concentrations are linked to the risk of a new infection. ” Such studies with large groups of healed patients are now under construction. The results will not be fast, because the participants have to be followed up months after their healing.

4. Can healed patients become ill again?

Last month, disturbing reports in that direction came from Asia. After healing, patients were found to test positive again for the sars-CoV-2 virus. The South Korean health authorities have now scrutinized such cases extensively. This week they announced the first conclusions: there is no re-infection or reactivation of the virus in the body. The World Health Organization confirms that estimate. What was going on then? No viable and infectious virus particles were found in the throat of South Korean patients who tested positive a second time. The tests were positive, because remnants of the virus were found in the throat. Those scraps coughed up the patients along with dead lung tissue, which is normal during recovery. 'I have not yet come across a convincing description of a re-infection in the professional literature,' says Professor Goossens. But all that says nothing about the risk of becoming ill again six months or more after recovery. The vast majority of healed patients have not yet passed that much time.

4. Can I get tested for antibodies?

This is possible, for example at the GP, if there is evidence of a sars-CoV-2 infection. The lab then searches for antibodies in the blood. In the meantime, there are also reliable rapid tests that provide a definite answer in general practice (comparable to pregnancy tests). "But there is no point in testing everyone for antibodies now," says Goossens. "Don't forget that with" mild "infections, it can take weeks for a patient to make antibodies." When the blood tests for antibodies come in very handy: if no virus is found in the throat swab of a patient with the typical symptoms against all expectations. That virus test becomes less reliable after one week of symptoms. The patient may already have antibodies in the blood and so a certain diagnosis can be made.

5. Is it useful to test travelers or healthcare personnel?

Individuals are considering tests, and hospitals are also thinking about testing their staff for antibodies or are already doing so. But the question remains what it will bring. Because if antibodies are found in someone's blood, it is not conclusive about the current or future risk of covid-19. "A positive test for anti bodies may also give a false sense of security," said Goossens. "That is why the idea of an immunity passport (with which citizens could travel freely) Is nonsense at the moment."

 

[Merckx index]

Studies in the lab have already shown that patients' antibodies adhere well to the virus and thus neutralize it. This is a good sign, but we do not yet have any data from healed patients who are monitored over time to see how high the concentration of antibodies in the blood is. We don't know how those concentrations are linked to the risk of a new infection.

Goossens is right to be cautious, the stakes are too high not to be, but the betting is that people who have recovered from C19 will have long-lasting antibodies. A study showed that antibodies to the original SARS-CoV lasted in almost all subjects up to two years:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2851497/

As for the protective effect, a preprint study with macaques showed that after infection with SARS-CoV-2 and antibody production, the animals did not show symptoms after a second exposure to the virus:

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.990226v1.full

 

[Jagartrott]

Up-to-date testing rates for a number of countries:

Testing rate for COVID-19 most impacted countries worldwide 2022| Statista

As of December 22, 2022, Austria had performed the most COVID-19 tests per one million population among the countries most severely impacted by the pandemic.

www.statista.com

 

[del1962]

Found this on the BBC

Sounds like there may have been cases in UK in December!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52589449

Among the first singers to get ill was the partner of a man who returned from a business trip to Wuhan on 17 or 18 December and developed a hacking cough.

 

[Mayomaniac]

The disaster in nursing homes was preventable and I'm talking all over the world where it occurred. It is a criminal negligence of the respective governments, they did not understand the scale and the implications of a major outbreak and did not act accordingly. If there are no strict measures, protocols, testing, isolating positives, disinfection, protection of the personnel then it's up to God or luck to survive if you're around 80 and stuck in a nursing home with other fellow humans of the same age and health problems. This is not right. Sure there would have been deaths but not at this scale.

I think the main problem here (South Tyrol) was the lack of testing for the residents, but mainly the workers early on. They actually acted rather fast and didn't let anymore visitor inside them about 10 days before the actual lockdown started and the situatuion went south.
It would be really interesting to know when the Virus was already spreading in certain areas, we had a pretty aggressive wave od Pneumonia in out local nursing home at the end of January, so who knows.
Closing the Ski stations one week earlier would have already made a big difference around here when all the tourists from Northern Italy came here shortly before the lockdown started.

 

[Unchained]

sexual transmission

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...n/news-story/a67acb7a5125de110e98992b3ab98c26

this is not a big problem for me because all women in my life require that I am at least 6ft away. Also I get multiple compliments per day about how much better I look w a mask.
it looks like I will get tested next Tuesday.
Ensenada Baja Mexico is dependent on tourism..all kinds..but short stay cruise ship visitors are key..from what I have read which doesn't look to be propaganda..cruise travel companies are planning on sailing again in August.
As many of you know.. San Diego and SCal as a region have lots of tourism and..lots of beer.. As of now the proposed restart for the California economy has beer..bars and restaurants as part of a final phase.. Comic con is cancelled this year..most big music festivals are way way fragile..Cochella, Burning man..?I don't see it.
And our seasonal stuff..wine tasting and fishing here in Baja..not looking..
California will need to probably write off a big profit summer..but a Covid ski season..I really don't see how it works. Even w decent fitness level..I need lodge time to rest..if I ski bumps or if it's powdery conditions..you work harder..I can't imagine..California ski lift chairs w social distancing..don't see how to get a beer and burger and seating for enjoying your food and the company of friends..
We have a trip scheduled to Bahia Lo s Angeles in late September..don't see how to get in a small boat no matter how beautiful the scenery

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0NET36TuyRI

 

[movingtarget]

this is not a big problem for me because all women in my life require that I am at least 6ft away. Also I get multiple compliments per day about how much better I look w a mask.
it looks like I will get tested next Tuesday.
Ensenada Baja Mexico is dependent on tourism..all kinds..but short stay cruise ship visitors are key..from what I have read which doesn't look to be propaganda..cruise travel companies are planning on sailing again in August.
As many of you know.. San Diego and SCal as a region have lots of tourism and..lots of beer.. As of now the proposed restart for the California economy has beer..bars and restaurants as part of a final phase.. Comic con is cancelled this year..most big music festivals are way way fragile..Cochella, Burning man..?I don't see it.
And our seasonal stuff..wine tasting and fishing here in Baja..not looking..
California will need to probably write off a big profit summer..but a Covid ski season..I really don't see how it works. Even w decent fitness level..I need lodge time to rest..if I ski bumps or if it's powdery conditions..you work harder..I can't imagine..California ski lift chairs w social distancing..don't see how to get a beer and burger and seating for enjoying your food and the company of friends..
We have a trip scheduled to Bahia Lo s Angeles in late September..don't see how to get in a small boat no matter how beautiful the scenery

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0NET36TuyRI

Confusing time for most people. Australia has only eight states and territories but they are all doing things a little differently. God knows what it must be like in the USA with so many borders and state governments. Tourist industry in Australia has been crippled, things are now opening up a little but medical authorities are concerned about the timing. Social distancing seems to be forgotten whenever anyone sees a Sale sign............or a sunny day .......

 

[Koronin]

Apparently Spain is going to start reopening their economy this week sort of. There are a few places that are not moving into phase one, but the ones that are are requiring social distancing for anything that opens and you aren't allowed to leave the province you live in. However, (from what I understand) you can have gatherings of 10 people or less. So possibly group riders of 10 riders or less are allowed again and families and friends can visit each other.

Where I live in NC they will start allowing hotels to have guests and short term vacation rentals, but the beaches are still technically closed. Restaurants are take out only. More stores and manufacturing are reopening. Technically I go back to work Monday, although this week is meetings and getting stuff together to go back into stores the following week.

 

[djpbaltimore]

The beaches in Ocean City, MD opened up on Saturday. It was about 40 degrees F and windy, so it is hard to gauge how the pandemic will effect the typical crowds based on a single frigid weekend. I went over Memorial Day weekend last year and it was jammed-packed. The eastern shore is physically separated from the rest of the state and DC, so it has had very limited numbers of infections. It will be a good test case on how well socially distanced beach activity effects transmission. The problem is that they are more like a rural community in terms of health care and can't really handle big spikes.

 

[search]

It will be a good test case on how well socially distanced beach activity effects transmission. The problem is that they are more like a rural community in terms of health care and can't really handle big spikes.

in his daily podcast, a German virologist and epidemiologist (Prof. Alexander Kekulé) today mentioned that first studies from China indicate that only between 0,1% and 1% of the infections occured outdoor. Last week, another one said that aerosols would be the main threat, which leads into the same direction of poorly ventilated, stuffed rooms being the biggest danger.

Therefor, from what I have heard recently, meetings at the beach (or also demonstrations) are unlikely to be too much of a problem.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I think I read that paper and I agree that outdoor activities are less likely to cause outbreaks*. But, my larger question is whether small probabilities with high frequency start to add up. The boardwalk and concession area is basically like a stadium full of people from Memorial Day until Labor Day. Plus, people spend a lot of time crowded into rental properties with questionable hygiene and decision making practices. I'll post if any interesting data surfaces. Worcester county has only 113 cases at present.

* I think the biggest mistake made across the country has been policy frowning on this type of activity. I think people would've bought in longer to the official lockdowns if they realized that they could go outside without much fear of infection.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1259905254465908736

View: https://twitter.com/bykowicz/status/1259905254465908736

 

[Jagartrott]

(from The Guardian)

Denmark’s chief epidemiologist has said the country is “very unlikely” to be hit with a second wave of Covid-19, after the government laid out plans for increased testing and contact tracing, Reuters reports.

Denmark, which has had 533 coronavirus-related deaths so far, was the first in Europe to relax its lockdown almost a month ago. The infection rate and the number of deaths have continued to drop.

“No country has seen an actual second wave yet. Some countries have seen the spread go up and down,” state epidemiologist Kare Molbak said at a news briefing.

“But with the knowledge we have today, I find it very unlikely that we’ll see second wave,” he said.

Fears that a second wave of infections could thwart the reopening of the global economy were triggered on Monday after Germany, relatively successful in slowing the outbreak, reported that infections had accelerated again after the first tentative steps to ease its lockdown.

Denmark this week began a second phase of relaxing its lockdown which will include reopening of restaurants and shopping malls. Despite the reopening, the so-called reproduction rate, which shows the average number of infections one person with the virus causes, fell to 0.7 in the first week of May from 0.9.