Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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At this stage the TDF will probably not be impacted because Europe has decided to live with the virus - The only way the TDF will be impacted is if the hospital system is over-run which is not happening at this stage.

Technically it could be impacted by riders/staff or even teams being sent home due to testing positive. However, it being cancelled it unlikely.
 
Chris,you and I fundamentally disagree,respectfully on my part. I think that the meatpacking workers were forced back to work with a gun to their heads. Many with pressures underneath the surface so great,again another labor travesty organized and unorganized alike.
teachers are way way way worse off,first for testing. Temperature checks are not an effective test for Covid 19. That is confirmed world wide scientific fact.
All students,and school staff should be tested for Covid before , during the continuing school year.
social distancing and masks should not be optional, or to put it another way,if 100% of the school staff and every vendor entering the school grounds and every parent of a student, that includes parents w responsibility, like a mom or dad that gets weekend visitation, if all those people agree that masks should not be used and deep documents are signed releasing everyone from liability, then proceed..but if 1 person from any group objects masks should be worn,100% of the time.
contact tracing information should be provided by everyone in all those groups before having a student participate in any school activity, on or off campus.
All the government guidelines,ventilation and distancing should be observed by a 3rd party for compliance.
so if you can't change your school to comply with standards, retrofit your facility or start over.
It's a little bit like the water situation in Flint Michigan, pretty close is not good enough, comply period.
We didn't have emergency bacon or hot dog demands nationally that commanded that food processing workers engage in deadly work place behavior,before and during the crisis.
I for one am backflipping over F-ing overjoyed that liability protection was not in place for giant corporations..I hope that they take big big hits for the contempt they showed workers for things like 3rd shift chicken nugget production without any PPE..I hope that people like Bimbo that made people work making and delivering chocolate cupcakes lose millions in and out of court settlements..I think teachers that look at classrooms and facilities that do not meet safety requirements are cowards.
 
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If correct, why are there so many deaths in Italy currently?

According to who? According to the worldometer, Italy has had only a handful, at most a few dozen, deaths per day for the last two months.

2020 - 526,764
2019 - 520,011
2018 - 546,008
2017 - 531,597
2016 - 504,747

2020 deaths for the first 6 months are only higher than 2019 & 2016 with 2018 recording 19,243 more deaths than 2020.

It appears that people are dying with and not of the virus.

This is really shoddy statistics, as Baltimore alludes to. If the year-to-year variability exceeds the recorded COVID deaths, that's because the recorded deaths are a very small proportion of the total deaths, not because people died with COVID rather than from it. People who use excess deaths have to understand that it only works when the recorded or official number of deaths from one cause is large enough to constitute a significant proportion of total deaths. It obviously doesn't work for Germany, at least not using a six month period. It might work if you focus on a single month when COVID deaths were at their highest number.

I could use expected deaths to prove that no one ever dies from (as opposed to in) an automobile accident in the U.S., because the total number of official annual deaths, around 35,000 or so, is within the year-to-year variability of total deaths, which is well over 2.5 million. So all those 35,000 people who die in accidents every year actually died from some other cause, just by coincidence. Can't you see how absurd that is? There are different ways to count deaths, different approaches have to be applied to different situations.

July 23, 2020 new COVID cases in France eclipsed the 1,000 per day mark. Yesterday the new case for the day total was 4,774.

At the peak of their outbreak in late March/early April they were in the low-to-mid 5,000's.

I'm wondering how the TdF will be impacted.

I'm wondering too, though from the way the sports minister or whoever has been saying we HAVE to have the Tour, I'm guessing they will forge on, regardless of the risk. They definitely need to ban spectators, except that that seems to be impossible to do.

France has > 4000 cases again, for the second day in a row, so this doesn't appear to be some random blip. France has about 20% the population of the U.S., so this is equivalent to 20-25,000 cases in the U.S., getting to the point where they are about as bad as we are (though a much higher population density needs to be taken into account). There's a resurgence throughout most of Europe, but France, Spain and Belgium appear to be the worst. Whether this is because of factors specific to these countries (Belgium has the second highest population density in Europe, after the Netherlands), or whether other Euro countries will also get worse, remains to be seen.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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I think that the meatpacking workers were forced back to work

No actually.



Close schools. Close Universities. Take no risk there and make it permanent. There is no reason not to. None. I completely disagree with this admin on this issue. We can keep kids and teachers and all other admin safe by distance learning. I was wrong before and jmdirt was/is right. The risks are too high and it’s not worth it. There’s a safe way to educate kids so let’s pursue it.


retrofit your facility or start over.

No and yes. Don’t retrofit facilities. Re-purpose for something else. Start over? Absolutely. Zero in class learning. See above.

I for one am backflipping over F-ing overjoyed that liability protection was not in place

Ok. Let us all hope every single business that operated during the lockdown and after is driven out via tortious liability suits Countrywide. Those suits are coming by the way. If you think the aftermath of COVID might be challenging from both a livabilty and economic standpoint just wait until you are done backflipping. You won’t even recognize the ‘society’ that remains.
 
Chris,you and I fundamentally disagree,respectfully on my part. I think that the meatpacking workers were forced back to work with a gun to their heads. Many with pressures underneath the surface so great,again another labor travesty organized and unorganized alike.
teachers are way way way worse off,first for testing. Temperature checks are not an effective test for Covid 19. That is confirmed world wide scientific fact.
All students,and school staff should be tested for Covid before , during the continuing school year.
social distancing and masks should not be optional, or to put it another way,if 100% of the school staff and every vendor entering the school grounds and every parent of a student, that includes parents w responsibility, like a mom or dad that gets weekend visitation, if all those people agree that masks should not be used and deep documents are signed releasing everyone from liability, then proceed..but if 1 person from any group objects masks should be worn,100% of the time.
contact tracing information should be provided by everyone in all those groups before having a student participate in any school activity, on or off campus.
All the government guidelines,ventilation and distancing should be observed by a 3rd party for compliance.
so if you can't change your school to comply with standards, retrofit your facility or start over.
It's a little bit like the water situation in Flint Michigan, pretty close is not good enough, comply period.
We didn't have emergency bacon or hot dog demands nationally that commanded that food processing workers engage in deadly work place behavior,before and during the crisis.
I for one am backflipping over F-ing overjoyed that liability protection was not in place for giant corporations..I hope that they take big big hits for the contempt they showed workers for things like 3rd shift chicken nugget production without any PPE..I hope that people like Bimbo that made people work making and delivering chocolate cupcakes lose millions in and out of court settlements..I think teachers that look at classrooms and facilities that do not meet safety requirements are cowards.
Is that a typo?
 
At least 41 Berlin schools report infections in students or teachers

By Associated Press02:16

At least 41 schools in Berlin have reported students or teachers are infected with the coronavirus — not even two weeks after they reopened in the German capital.
The daily Berliner Zeitung published the numbers on Friday and the city's senate for education confirmed them to The Associated Press.
Hundreds of students and teachers are in quarantine, the newspaper reported. Elementary schools, high schools and trade schools are affected. There are 825 schools in Berlin.
The reopening of schools and the risk of virus clusters building up there and spreading to families and into communities has been a matter of concern.
Berlin was one of the first places in Germany to reopen schools after summer holidays. Children are obliged to wear masks in hallways, during breaks, and when entering the classroom, but they can take them off once they sit down.
Some critics say the measures in Berlin are too relaxed and both students and teachers should wear masks.
Coronavirus cases in Germany have been going up again since late July, driven by returning vacationers and social events.
 
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At this stage the TDF will probably not be impacted because Europe has decided to live with the virus - The only way the TDF will be impacted is if the hospital system is over-run which is not happening at this stage.
What I find interesting is some places show a rebound in cases but not deaths. Spain is a good example. Spain's lockdown initially almost stopped new cases. But then economic reality became a real concern and they eased restrictions. Coronavirus cases inevitably rose, But not deaths. It has been discussed earlier in this thread that when virus's mutate I think they usually become less deadly? Is this happening with covid-19? Does this change the game?
 
What I find interesting is some places show a rebound in cases but not deaths

I don't know Spain's situation specifically, but a lower death rate in the U.S. has been mostly associated with a younger age of positives. Part of that is because when the states opened up, people of working age, who tend to be younger, began interacting more. I suspect another factor is that by this time, older people make a concerted effort to avoid unnecessary social contact, whereas younger people--driven by hormones and by the confidence that they're unlikely to suffer serious consequences if they get infected--don't.

There is another strain that is thought to be transmitted more easily, but is less deadly, which makes sense in terms of selection, but I don't kow how much of a factor that has been.

Here's a 40 year old woman who hasn't died, but who has been hospitalized for more than five months, and faces amputation of her hands from loss of circulation to them. This is the ultimate lockdown, hasn't seen her family in all this time.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6bobmaLGys
 
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I don't think he's in any danger of losing his job:

 
But the ASO has said that any teams that have two or more infections will be sent home. ...........hopefully after they quarantine..............

Pre-race testing is weeding out the positives as we've seen this week - so you can only enter the bubble if you test negative and theoretically nothing should happen in the bubble - My argument about outside influences affecting racing is Europe seems to be living with the virus BUT is closely monitoring hospital admissions.
 
Chris,I gotta say you are staying the party binary line..it's either wide open,spin the wheel and hope Vanna and Pat don't say,bankrupt,dead,infected,lose your turn,permanently disabled,out of business,job gone,no money, debilitated economy,ect
Or just go the way of everyone else and get high levels of public participation. There have been some that echo their inner Chris,w calls for unskilled labor,coal mining,factory work doing old school repetitive tasks,but for the most part, the first world embraces education and the derivative of education, technology and innovation and the development that often follows.
So if you are posing your choices of shutter all schools rather than take simple measures like wear a mask, increase sanitary conditions and practices,ten fold, I personally think we should chose education.
Yes your widely held view of giving up is popular. The give up culture...this is too hard..it's how the Nazis did it..it's socialism..it's anti freedom,anti American to wear a mask, etc etc etc
There are hundreds if not thousands of other reasons being offered up..almost always the @175,000and counting dead Americans are not included in any reasoning. And more than half a year into the Covid crisis,serious heart and respiratory problems are revealed and some may have long lasting or permanent damaging effects. So along with the easier to count dead bodies,the disabled created are not currently being factored in the overall American damage report.
We really only have the 2 ways,and that was clear before day one..we either accept science or science fiction, for success the only right answer is science. Any hybrid combo of Q-anon soup mixed with crazy irrational emotions and out of the universe political interpretation, get us to here..increasing despair and fear,no clear path forward..
Your idea to toss the compass, navigation equipment and maps overboard when the US is in sea state 100 is against my grain. I dream of the day, when that population in America gets that hard movie slap in the face to retain composure and sense of renewed reality.
If we give up,we still die, so we might as well make a fight of it..my country,my friends,family and colleagues all worth it..and American history is worth fighting for..
The world I hope is simply(incorrectly) blaming the President. He is one guy,the problem of hundreds of thousands of dead and sick,suffering Americans is bigger than one person..

No we shouldn't close the schools permanently
 
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....... a lower death rate in the U.S. has been mostly associated with a younger age of positives.

There is another strain that is thought to be transmitted more easily, but is less deadly, which makes sense in terms of selection, but I don't kow how much of a factor that has been.

I found this story in my local media which quotes a story from the UK Times. It is hidden behind paywalls but I will quote three snippets below which are from a UK medical researcher:-

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/wo...y/news-story/3749cb65fcf152ec24faf15d0f37faee

Something does appear to have changed. We don’t know for certain what that is at the moment

It may not be that the disease has altered, or that treatment has. It could simply be that the people getting it have.

I think the more susceptible people have got the virus and been sick with it,” she said. “Now the people who are getting it respond in a different way
 

Chris Gadsden

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No we shouldn't close the schools permanently

You can’t guarantee the safety of kids and faculty with in school instruction. Don;t pretend otherwise.

Give up culture? Lolz. Complain about 175k dead then speak of a give up culture while bashing people desperate to save their livlihood.

You are as confused as they come.
 
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Chris I will restate what accomplished and trusted scientists said from the beginning, a healthy economy is based on health,not economy. The dull end of the American spear can't hit the unknown,completely undefined target. To say that schools and school kids can't be protected is completely wrong,soon we will hear arguments that water in bathrooms is a luxury or that school building costs w and without fire alarm and extinguishers should be explored depending on our budget,
should we start the padded dash board,leaded gas,catalytic converter discussion? After all what's the use.?
the federal government stance of step back,this thing will burn itself out,hasn't worked and theoretically can't work. And the other ace in the hole,which is an non ace in the hole is a vaccine. If one is available and is @75% effective,we still have 18-24 months of ramped up immunity time..so 18 months from whatever date is still 18months..so play golf or dominos for a year and a half and revisit the issue then? This is a can that can't be kicked down the road.
View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TFBrDeB_7xw

This is the absorbing public getting the consistent and clear message from the government(s)
This is my country. We don't agree on buying cans of soup or bananas in safety,forget about schools. Schools and elder facility safety is way way way way over the heads of American idiots. This video is last week,this is not March or April.this is public reaction to @175,000 dead fellow citizens..this isn't give me freedom or give me death, this is I want my White Claw and hot pockets and I don't care if it kills you..
 
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