Remember when I claimed months ago that the US strategy was basically herd immunity. I would say tonight vindicates that assertion.
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States the error rate for false positives from the PCR test is over 50%
I've never hear it defined the second way.It depends on how you define false positive. If you mean the % of negative people who test positive, it's very low, probably less than 1% or even 0.!% in a lab that knows what it's doing. But if you mean the % of people who test positive, it can be as high as 50%.
If the population being tested has a very low rate of true positives, say 1%, and 1% of negative people test positive, then half the people who test positive are false positives. That's why false positives are such a problem in bubbles, leading to testing twice to increase certainty. The lower the incidence of true positives, the greater the false positive rate in the second sense.
Never mind. She just told the boss (main boss not team boss) that if she can't work from home, she is going to resign.Question for everybody, but especially dj et al who work in this field: does vigorously rubbing your hands under running water remove most virus? I'm asking because a colleague's hand are absolutely raw from the soap here at work and whatever hand sanitizer she is using between washes (my hands get dry, but hers look angry!). I encouraged her to use lotion, try other hand sanitizers, and maybe bring her own soap to work, but if rubbing her hands under running water could reduce the number of times that she has to fully wash her hands that might help as well. ??
I believe that his quote was "heard mentality".Remember when I claimed months ago that the US strategy was basically herd immunity. I would say tonight vindicates that assertion.
Now with the Big Ten committing to a season every jerk with a kid wanting to play football will throw the 1st Amendment argument forward to allow unchecked activities. Not blaming the Big Ten; it seems anything that allows spoiled Americans to reclaim their niche identities is the only thing they'll fight over. Nothing reasonable and forward planning is considered possible; in fact the buzzwords of "manifesto" and "socialism" are almost immediately attached.To me it seemed like a struggle to repackage the arguments given to him by Atlas. He also mentioned excess mortality figures last night. Where else have we heard that rationale recently? Atlas is the one who has the sway on the task force.
Good information coming from hearings in DC. Redfield of the CDC saying that vaccines will not be widespread until next summer. That shouldn't be news to people here, but worth repeating.
Peak Florida. I just don't think people who live in Europe realize how nuts people are here. And how easily a some people slip from being anti- lockdown to anti-mask to anti-test.
View: https://twitter.com/KFoleyFL/status/1306254415754559488
DT referred to it as "herd mentality"......he must believe ABC broadcasts exclusively to his loyal base.Remember when I claimed months ago that the US strategy was basically herd immunity. I would say tonight vindicates that assertion.
I'm not misrepresenting anything: Chien - Te Tseng et al tested a vaccine against SARS-CoV-1 back in 2012. The animal models showed a robust antibody response but on challenge all the animals suffered a hyper-immune response including serious pulmonary inflammation:SARS 1.0 disappeared before the vaccine was ready to be tested. You are misrepresenting what happened there. The vaccine did not fail by any definition and animal models suggest that it would be successful in humans. Speculating that the vaccine will be unsafe given that tens of thousands that have taken them is a bit overdramatic. They would not be in Phase III if they didn't pass safety benchmarks.
They're reporting a heart blood clot(s) - coronary thrombosis. High BMIs are a major risk factor for thrombotic disease. Stephens was a big guy with a BMI of ~44.ETA. On a separate football note, it looks like there is resolution on the Jamain Stephens story and it looks like the death was caused by a clot due to COVID-19. He was on campus working out, but did not catch it with the team.
Here is the most recent paper on the subject. One of the authors, Hotez, is on TV regularly and has talked about SARS vaccine development.I'm not misrepresenting anything: Chien - Te Tseng et al tested a vaccine against SARS-CoV-1 back in 2012. The animal models showed a robust antibody response but on challenge all the animals suffered a hyper-immune response including serious pulmonary inflammation:
Oxford's ChadOxl vaccine for COVID-19 tested the vaccine which failed to prevent infections in the animal models:
And Moderna's vaccine is deploying an experimental RNA technology. RNA tech has never been approved for any product.
It is worth reading the introduction as they have a discussion of why the other vaccine may have failed. If your argument is that some vaccines failed for SARS in preclinical models, that is correct. But claiming that the vaccine process failed is incorrect IMO. A vaccine with a reasonable high probability of success was developed and ready to be tested in humans, but the will to test it in humans was lost due to SARS being effectively eradicated. Hard to get grant money or Pharma support for something like this nowadays. The beneficial part of that research was finding out what vaccine platforms did not work. The COVID-19 vaccines benefitted from that process and are not using the type of vaccine platform that failed for SARS.In this work, the RBD219-N1 formulated with Alhydrogel® resulted in significantly increased antigen-specific IgG titers and neutralizing antibody responses when compared to other RBD constructs. After challenge with SARS-CoV, 100% of mice immunized with RBD219-N1 survived, while only 89% of mice immunized with other RBD constructs and less than 70% of the mice immunized with SARS-CoV spike protein survived and none survived in the control group.
Agree with this. The benefit to a live vaccine is that it will induce cytotoxic T cells as well as antibody and the phase I results from the Oxford group are consistent with that theory. In general, there is more of a threat to adverse reactions with a live vaccine, but these vectors have been widely tested in people as a vaccine vector for diseases like Malaria, Ebola, etc. One of the reasons that groups were so quick to get vaccines into humans was because the technological framework to make them was well established. The Moderna RNA vaccine had the worst adverse reactions in the early trials despite it being a 'safer' subunit vaccine, so I would be more hesitant about that one. The technology has never led to FDA approval, so it is bit more of a wild card.
Good thing that BMI is generally low in.. <checks notes>.. football players?!?! That really is an MO of COVID-19. It is very good at tipping vulnerable people over the edge. Doubtful he dies of a clot without the infection, but that is all speculation.They're reporting a heart blood clot(s) - coronary thrombosis. High BMIs are a major risk factor for thrombotic disease. Stephens was a big guy with a BMI of ~44.
The allure of easy answers to complex problems allow people to think that they personally will get a vaccine soon after one is approved. Responsible people should disabuse that notion. The logistics of immunizing 300m+ people is not something that will sort itself out quickly. And that assumes that there is no issue with supply, which is a big assumption. And the kicker is that it is likely the vaccine approved will require 2 doses, complicating things further. By the end of October, it is debatable whether there will be enough infection within the two arms to declare whether the vaccine works or not. Anyone that suggests that vaccinations will happen in October is blowing smoke up your orifice IMO.
We don't know what the vaccine companies are targeting for infection events because they have not been transparent about their methodologies. Until today when that changed. Seems like they need about 150-60 to get clinical disease. Depends on who is enrolled, but even with 30k people, that might take awhile. Also interesting that they are both expecting 60% efficacy.
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/virginiahughes/status/1306763103913246720