Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Cookster15]

Easy to forget that there are other health issues outside Covid at the moment :

UN urges resumption of mass measles and polio vaccinations

Unicef and WHO say Covid disruption has left 94 million without measles immunisation

www.theguardian.com

I had to visit my local medical centre again yesterday. I wondered if this time there might be more people waiting. But no, I was the only person there. This was my 3rd visit to this place since June and every time it has been empty or near empty of waiting patients. Normally it is a 1 to 2 hour wait time to see a Dr. It is quite eerie.

My conclusion is in places where the population has adhered to social distancing not only Covid is rare but now even colds and flu are rare. Pretty sure based upon my own observations I now know colds and flu are what fills up medical centres and keeps GPs busy. Interesting.

In the state of NSW, like all of Australia except Victoria, the wearing of masks is not compulsory. So I would argue that social distancing is easily the most effective way to keep Covid-19 infections to a minimum. Masks are helpful if you have no choice but to be in close proximity with other people.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Nope.

Here’s what I wrote:

We’ll see what happens. My assumption is the global spike/American spike will subside over the next several weeks. The press will suddenly shift from the 100% full-time negativity of all things COVID. You’ll see stories about how much better results of various therapies are becoming and the need to stabilize the economy and thus those suffering the mental distress from government action and the financial destruction that followed. The press in concert with their corporate partners will decide it’s time to get back to work and to school.

Define 'several'. There is no evidence that we are nearing the peak.

As for schools, I don't think you are paying attention. And the outbreak here is not even that bad.

School Reopening Plans Postponed In Anne Arundel County As COVID-19 Cases Rise

Anne Arundel is the latest area district to change course as coronavirus cases rise.

www.npr.org

 

[Unchained]

Chris you and I and a majority of the world disagree on you and your definition of not gambling.
World wide, the was hardly a harmonious blend of professional voices on anything,except that the virus,the characteristics of the virus would probably spread more in fall and winter as humans consolidated against the cold outside.
You, and it is the season for it apparently,like Trump are betting against everyone else being wrong and that fall\winter will just see the virus politically willed to extinction..
so I rescind my cash wager and instead will just let history pay us both out personally with real life outcomes..
There are others that will also get a history helping of crow to eat,like another famous first son that said that the 1000+ who died of Covid was negligible..obviously I can't control where lighting strikes or you would have read about it..
RIP to all the fallen, the suckers and fools who did it in uniform,and those who died believing someone was trying to help them..all for these last years would be wrong to believe..golf,tweeting and bickering were more important than their lives..
any order..
Truly sad or sad but true

 

[djpbaltimore]

So it still sounds like it's not exactly useful to the vast majority of the population of the planet. As it appears currently the vast majority of people getting it have mild to no symptoms to being with. It's not exactly going to do them any good.
To add to this, if all the vaccine may to is keep you from getting moderate to severe symptoms, I personally don't see a reason to bother getting the vaccine as outside of chronic sinusitis (not officially diagnosed, but my doctors have said it's likely I have it) I rarely get more than mild cases of anything anyway. My husband doesn't want the vaccine due to fears of interactions with the RA medications he takes.

It depends on whether you consider vaccination a personal choice or a societal responsibility. As I have discussed with Nomad, I doubt it will be mandatory. The only way that we will see if it works to limit transmission is if a lot of the population gets it. The CDC recommendation will be that everyone should be vaccinated. All I am saying is that the clinical trials are limited in scope by their very nature and people should be as informed as possible about what they tell us. The early trials suggest that the vaccines generate immunity of unknown duration. Personally, that alone makes me want it because I have zero immunity right now. I am generally healthy, but that is no guarantee. I would rather get a jab than take my chances.

The odds are still in your favor if you don't get vaccinated. Just like the odds are in your favor if you don't take the polio vaccine or the measles vaccine or the tetanus vaccine or the flu vaccine.

 

[jmdirt]

Just because the trials are not designed to detect whether the hospitalizations and deaths are decreased in people who receive the vaccines does not mean that an effective vaccine that prevents moderate illness will not help prevent serious outcomes too. It is just that we won't be able to determine that in these 30K person studies. The purpose of the COVID-19 vaccine is to limit the disease in the individuals that get infected by decreasing colonization of the lower airways. Hopefully turning people who would normally die into hospitalizations. Turning people who would normally be hospitalized into mild symptoms and turning people with mild symptoms into asymptomatic cases. Essentially, turning COVID into a seasonal common cold type CoV. It is highly debatable whether you can prevent colonization of the upper airways, which means it might not be possible for a vaccine to prevent transmission between people. But it might limit the severity of the infection enough that it quickly fades into anonymity.

This is how I understand it from reading/hearing things from people like Osterholm.

 

[jmdirt]

You really do think the US exists in a vacuum, huh.

Its heading for the toilet, not the vacuum!

 

[jmdirt]

I had to visit my local medical centre again yesterday. I wondered if this time there might be more people waiting. But no, I was the only person there. This was my 3rd visit to this place since June and every time it has been empty or near empty of waiting patients. Normally it is a 1 to 2 hour wait time to see a Dr. It is quite eerie.

My conclusion is in places where the population has adhered to social distancing not only Covid is rare but now even colds and flu are rare. Pretty sure based upon my own observations I now know colds and flu are what fills up medical centres and keeps GPs busy. Interesting.

In the state of NSW, like all of Australia except Victoria, the wearing of masks is not compulsory. So I would argue that social distancing is easily the most effective way to keep Covid-19 infections to a minimum. Masks are helpful if you have no choice but to be in close proximity with other people.

The bold ^ exactly.

Here in Boise, ID USA, and Missoula, MT USA (where my mom and sister live) most people with colds, flu, minor lacerations, etc. are treated at "doc in the box" type facilities. In my experience they are never busy (10ish minute wait) because there are a lot of them. I can't speak about hospital emergency rooms because I haven't been to one in 20ish years.

I assume that you are correct though that there might be less seasonal sickness (cold/flu) this year.

 

[jmdirt]

So it still sounds like it's not exactly useful to the vast majority of the population of the planet. As it appears currently the vast majority of people getting it have mild to no symptoms to being with. It's not exactly going to do them any good.
To add to this, if all the vaccine may to is keep you from getting moderate to severe symptoms, I personally don't see a reason to bother getting the vaccine as outside of chronic sinusitis (not officially diagnosed, but my doctors have said it's likely I have it) I rarely get more than mild cases of anything anyway. My husband doesn't want the vaccine due to fears of interactions with the RA medications he takes.

I understand where you are coming from on this because I have some of these same thoughts. If a vaccine would have come online already, I wouldn't even consider it. If one is available to me in Sept, I will likely get it.

With the exception of three years ago I haven't had a bad flu reaction in 20 years so we are in the same boat there, but as I've already stated, the long-haul affects worry me more than anything. If the vaccine can reduce the severity, and therefor the potential for lasting issues, I'm in. Plus, as dj said, there is a societal piece as well.

 

[Unchained]

I am assuming that Dirt is saying the country going down the swirly bird is at least partially in jest. I really think that the future both immediate and long-term is good..sure the pandemic has redlined misinformation..to the point were it looks like we are going to throw a rod..or minimum blow a bald tire on our old American machine. Youth will probably,my hope swing to science,history and logic. Covid-19 will be part of a rancid disease buffet of old and new if we don't break out of this funk. ha
Science says that Covid's brothers,sisters and cousins are on the way..and if as a country we say out loud that we are no longer afraid of HIV-Aids ,mumps,measles,polio, tuberculosis and all the others that vaccines have shielded us from then yes we are collectively f-cked. But you have to have some faith..maybe the outgoing think windmills cause cancer,coal is clean or that water is already clean enough..but that generation and their thinking are going to fade.
maybe in January the US will start working towards common goals internally and w the rest of the world. It should strike every American,that right now,today, who is at fault for the virus is a dumb question to try and answer,until the fire is out or at the least has died down to controllable levels..2 weeks ago American governors air lifting people to other states for treatment is not an example of control,1000+ dead a day, 80,000+ new cases a day,further proof that we don't have control.
We have not turned any corners towards a finish line..
America is caught in a 2 billion lap office park crit and the officials have lost count so the lap card is never flipped. With a loon President of the race organization insisting it's bell lap and falsely flailing the bell confusing everyone!!!

 

[yaco]

I suggest that if you enjoy international travel then you will have a vaccination or otherwise you will not be travelling.

 

[Koronin]

The bold ^ exactly.

Here in Boise, ID USA, and Missoula, MT USA (where my mom and sister live) most people with colds, flu, minor lacerations, etc. are treated at "doc in the box" type facilities. In my experience they are never busy (10ish minute wait) because there are a lot of them. I can't speak about hospital emergency rooms because I haven't been to one in 20ish years.

I assume that you are correct though that there might be less seasonal sickness (cold/flu) this year.

My husband was at one of those about a month and a half ago (pneumonia) and it wasn't that busy when he was taken in. It, however, got crazy about a half hour after that (while he was still there). Got released later that night.

 

[Unchained]

I have on good authority that the United States will be introducing an entirely new Covid -19 strategy in @45 days!!
Windmills can only cause cancer for a month and a half more!! All malaria drugs will expire as a Corona virus treatment in 6 weeks!! All US tanning salons that were Presidentially designated for emergency,effective Covid treatment centers will get new signage in 2 months..
And the dancing in the streets shall commence..and in the town there was much rejoicing!!!

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kPIdRJlzERo

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Define 'several'. There is no evidence that we are nearing the peak.

As for schools, I don't think you are paying attention. And the outbreak here is not even that bad.

School Reopening Plans Postponed In Anne Arundel County As COVID-19 Cases Rise

Anne Arundel is the latest area district to change course as coronavirus cases rise.

www.npr.org

More than a couple and less than dozens.

Good call by the County. We don’t need schools In the traditional sense. Too risky.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

I doubt it will be mandatory

True. Unless parents wish to send their kids to school while wishing to avoid CPS raids at home for putting their kids at risk. Or mass congregation events. Maybe an identifying mark on the forearms of those safely vaccinated will help with the segregation of those safely obeying mandates and the rebels.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Chris you and I and a majority of the world disagree on you and your definition of not gambling.
World wide, the was hardly a harmonious blend of professional voices on anything,except that the virus,the characteristics of the virus would probably spread more in fall and winter as humans consolidated against the cold outside.
You, and it is the season for it apparently,like Trump are betting against everyone else being wrong and that fall\winter will just see the virus politically willed to extinction..
so I rescind my cash wager and instead will just let history pay us both out personally with real life outcomes..
There are others that will also get a history helping of crow to eat,like another famous first son that said that the 1000+ who died of Covid was negligible..obviously I can't control where lighting strikes or you would have read about it..
RIP to all the fallen, the suckers and fools who did it in uniform,and those who died believing someone was trying to help them..all for these last years would be wrong to believe..golf,tweeting and bickering were more important than their lives..
any order..
Truly sad or sad but true

I’ll go ahead and add the skilled nursing patients in NY State to your list.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

I suggest that if you enjoy international travel then you will have a vaccination or otherwise you will not be travelling.

I think this is absolutely true.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

I have on good authority that the United States will be introducing an entirely new Covid -19 strategy in @45 days!!
Windmills can only cause cancer for a month and a half more!! All malaria drugs will expire as a Corona virus treatment in 6 weeks!! All US tanning salons that were Presidentially designated for emergency,effective Covid treatment centers will get new signage in 2 months..
And the dancing in the streets shall commence..and in the town there was much rejoicing!!!

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kPIdRJlzERo

Yup. Just like it never happened.

Social distancing? Just take a look at the videos of the thousands gathered in DC just today. The virus is over. Finally.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

A-Mazing how quickly things are turning around.

https://thehill.com/changing-americ...or-concerts-may-be-made-safe-from-coronavirus

 

[Tricycle Rider]

A-Mazing how quickly things are turning around.

https://thehill.com/changing-americ...or-concerts-may-be-made-safe-from-coronavirus

Dude, it's actually all about the gridlock. Which, as you get older, you will understand the importance of.

 

[Unchained]

Chris again you are like that not so famous Todd Rundgren song: Beat on my drum all day..in @45 days there is guaranteed not to be a roll over belly up reversal of mass gather policy from a federal level.
But if you want to lean into it..by all means.
what will probably happen..and 48- 48 will make it over the top crazy..PPE and testing,contact tracing will be struck by a financial lighting bolt..through VP Harris putting her thumb on the scale or using executive order. That's almost assured without either of us thinking about it. Sure not the full weight of federal government,but big bags of gold will go towards at a minimum needed supplies and suppliers.
also carrot and stick is always a nice start but it's best you imagine a cooperative reality. Trump was asked, Trump was directed by the courts not to stomp into town after town ,state after state and hold events against national,state and local guidelines..but you often close your eyes when you expell your every last bit of energy on a hail Mary.
The 100's of jobs that have been vacant pre and during the pandemic at health agencies will be fleshed out and filled.
And as a logical person,a rational administration would do..if you are fighting a world wide pandemic..duh..engage the world..start a dialogue..find out what is working where and see if we can apply it..find out what is not,so we can avoid it.
Get people going in a direction of confidence and understanding,if not support.Sure $1200 bucks 8 months ago may sound like a big bag of loot to Moscow Mitch and his posse but it's not Jack schit. Many eviction moratorium mandates are set to expire,once those people are prioritized over TV news,golfing and tweeting things can't get worse..so sleepy Joe can probably even get his old legs over the stupid low bar height set by the non actors.
maybe we can get ourselves identified as non Lepers..most data says schools and planes are not as dangerous as estimated at the onset..so why fight good news and act on it..go with it..let's wash the ugly American stigma off if only temporarily..let's get business up and running..
Trumps plan for identifying which cars have bad transmissions..by looking at them..we see how that's working. Let's actually test things..people to see which ones are ok and get the others worked on..
Let's make sure that our smallest children to grade schoolers think of an Atlas as a big map instead of a big black hole void of logic and reason..
Let's do everything we can to open our markets , things lost maybe recovered..the reason nuclear economic recovery is essential is straight forward..Americans don't have any money,they are in poor health..and in an upside down market quirk. Americans like no other industrialized nations get their health care,the health insurance for their families through their employers at rates like nobody else.
So during a pandemic,nobody not smoking crack would try and topple a teetering health care system..but crack has been smoked..and our federal government is suing itself to try and get @22,000,000 million people to go in an instant uninsured..not sure why that would qualify as pandemic prowess..a point of pandemic pride ..but some people say..to coin a phrase that is cool to cancel coverage.
No there maybe a Ted Nugent show or 3 Doors down..playing a 99¢ store parking lot..but most regular folk will just change the station when the Kid Rock concert extravaganza is announced..

 

[Unchained]

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gO17hN-YvBc

 

[Merckx index]

I’ll go ahead and add the skilled nursing patients in every State to your list.

Fixed. Nothing different about NY. People who accept the scientific facts understand this.

Social distancing? Just take a look at the videos of the thousands gathered in DC just today. The virus is over. Finally.

i agree. This is hypocrisy, though at least most of the people are wearing masks. But it's not Biden's fault. He didn't show up and tell everyone to gather to celebrate his win. On the contrary, his speech will be attended by people in cars, and he urged other supporters to stay home and watch it on TV. Likewise, he made every effort during the campaign to ensure that people did not gather for his appearances. Not to mention wearing a mask. Anyone who makes a tiny bit of effort to be objective can see the difference in the approaches

My assumption is the global spike/American spike will subside over the next several weeks.

What are you basing that prediction on? The spike in cases in the U.S. has been going on for more than a month, and new daily cases may double the peak reached last July. The number could peak, it will peak eventually, that's why we see waves, but the factors driving the spike don't seem to be abating, except in some countries in Europe, where new lockdown measures are being put into place.

The press in concert with their corporate partners will decide it’s time to get back to work and to school.

This is really conspiracy theory territory. The press does not control the number of cases, except in that it continues to plead for people to take simple, commonsense measures to reduce transmission. Of course, there is continuing, unrelentlng pressure to keep the economy open and open it further, but the spike is not going to be ignored nor belittled.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

there is guaranteed not to be a roll over belly up reversal of mass gather policy from a federal level.

It’s so weird how I haven’t seen or heard the discouragement of mass gatherings today.

Is it summer again?

 

[djpbaltimore]

True. Unless parents wish to send their kids to school while wishing to avoid CPS raids at home for putting their kids at risk. Or mass congregation events. Maybe an identifying mark on the forearms of those safely vaccinated will help with the segregation of those safely obeying mandates and the rebels.

So, we agree that they won't be mandatory. But, rest assured, the govt has the legal right to mandate vaccination. Compulsory vaccination for small pox was challenged and upheld by the supreme court. But this a case where you attract more flies with honey than vinegar. Vaccination will likely be incentivized in some way. I would give people money to get one.

If parents want to utilize public schools, they should consider the societal responsibility first and foremost. Same with intl travel as yaco noted. Freedom comes with tradeoffs sometimes. You can't be employed in health care without Hep B vaccination for instance.

 

[movingtarget]

US confirms over 126,000 Covid cases on Friday, third daily record in a row

Multiple states also announce record high numbers as White House chief of staff tests positive

www.theguardian.com