Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Cookster15]

Data from the outbreak in Indiana supporting what I said yesterday. You really can't protect the elderly in the middle of a pandemic. At least, Indiana has shown that they couldn't. Rising tides lift all boats.

Actually I think you can. Obviously something wasn't handled well in Indiana.

 

[Oldermanish]

Newsome now saying that he expects California to get 327,000 doses. How things can change in 24 hours.

Love the new trollers here! "California has stated they need 10 million (doses)". Who said it and in what context? Your spin is purposeful but really amateurish. Every Governor would place the number they need based on a dramatic impact on their State's current exposure. That is their job and acknowledgement of what the program will actually delivery is just that.

By the way; the WH who committed to letting the scientists fully vet the respective vaccines to assure public confidence and, hopefully, widespread and totally voluntary inoculation has now demanded a face to face with the FDA's Steve Hahn. Clearly they want to pressure the FDA to get shots-in arms prior to the inauguration of President elect Biden. It also would help the Trump "defense fund" initiative that so far has elicited $170mil and counting from the faithful. Trump can use that cash for virtually anything he wants. He still does not find the pandemic newsworthy enough to come on-air to say something other than "gather" for holiday events so it's fairly obvious any emphasis on Warp Speed is part of the pr campaign to increase donations to his cause. Hopefully more Republicans will realize that the money will not be used to help them. Quite the contrary.

 

[Cookster15]

OECD growth forecasts have been lifted with news of the vaccine.

Some selected examples (2020 forecasted economic growth YOY):
World -4.2%
G20 +1.8%
USA -3.7%
China +1.8%
Euro area -7.5%
Japan -5.3%
Australia -3.8%

World economy: OECD lifts outlook on vaccine progress, sees China driving recovery (cnbc.com)

 

[Oldermanish]

6 million Americans flew for Thanksgiving holiday. 800,000+ with zip codes in the NYC area. Where is all the outrage? Crickets from the most vocal as usual.

Where were they flying to? You want to assign some sort of blame for attitude you might want to see where they went and why, wouldn't you? Hard to get outraged over statistics that don't track to anything.

 

[Oldermanish]

Looking at those death numbers- what's up with Pneumonia at 566.

Total deaths are 28,020 so maybe we need to look hard at swimming pools and automobiles after this covid 19 is over.

Schools are closed and demonstrations and riots are essential?

Schools are not totally closed, particularly for the younger elementary students in many areas. Demonstrations and riots are essential?????? Has the forum suddenly been overrun by bots? At least make a case for what you're stating that has some factual basis.

 

[BroDeal]

OECD growth forecasts have been lifted with news of the vaccine.

Some selected examples (2020 forecasted economic growth YOY):
World -4.2%
G20 +1.8%
USA -3.7%
China +1.8%
Euro area -7.5%
Japan -5.3%
Australia -3.8%

World economy: OECD lifts outlook on vaccine progress, sees China driving recovery (cnbc.com)

Wow. Europe getting killed there, and it was already on the brink of recession before covid with much of the area not fully recovered from the GFC.

 

[Cookster15]

Wow. Europe getting killed there, and it was already on the brink of recession before covid with much of the area not fully recovered from the GFC.

Yes. I know America has copped a lot of criticism here and elsewhere for its handling of the pandemic and the shocking covid statistics (and rightly so) but I felt it was worth highlighting that those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

 

[Jagartrott]

Yes. I know America has copped a lot of criticism here and elsewhere for its handling of the pandemic and the shocking covid statistics (and rightly so) but I felt it was worth highlighting that those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

I hope everyone realizes economic growth only tells a very partial story. I would be more interested in how much poverty changes, or learning difficulties, inequality in general.

 

[Cookster15]

I hope everyone realizes economic growth only tells a very partial story. I would be more interested in how much poverty changes, or learning difficulties, inequality in general.

Economic growth directly correlates with poverty, learning outcomes, inequality, mental health and crime statistics. Europe needs to stop pointing the finger across the Atlantic and accept responsibility for its own failings with Covid-19. Too many excuses.

 

[djpbaltimore]

That is probably true in most cases, but I can almost guarantee you that there has been less effective education in the USA than in most European countries as a result of COVID-19, especially for those in poverty. There were tradeoffs made to get more potential growth here, so I wouldn't raise the victory flag yet until we have a better idea of the cost.

 

[Cookster15]

That is probably true in most cases, but I can almost guarantee you that there has been less effective education in the USA than in most European countries as a result of COVID-19, especially for those in poverty. There were tradeoffs made to get more potential growth here, so I wouldn't raise the victory flag yet until we have a better idea of the cost.

Thanks, yes I understand Europe has done what it felt was the best compromise. Something I missed early when this started was how the virus originally arrived in Europe and why nothing was done to restrict movement of people across borders to stop the spread? I only comment from my limited experience in Australia but here we had states closing borders. For example, I could not drive my car across the Queensland border from NSW. Similarly from NSW we could not catch flights to the states of Western Australia or Queensland. The Queensland border was only reopened yesterday! Was it not possible to do similar in Europe e.g close travel from Italy to Belgium, France etc?

 

[hrotha]

Economic growth directly correlates with poverty, learning outcomes, inequality, mental health and crime statistics. Europe needs to stop pointing the finger across the Atlantic and accept responsibility for its own failings with Covid-19. Too many excuses.

Who is this Europe you're talking about? European forumers?

 

[Merckx index]

The surge in cases began slowing down two weeks ago, and appears to have peaked at about 200,000 a day, though as others have pointed out, we have yet to see the consequences from Thanksgiving. There apparently was under-reporting for several days, so expect a surge as the records catch up, plus whatever more results from the holiday travel. Still, it looks as though the number of daily cases will ultimately settle down to what it was a week or two before Thanksgiving. Some were projecting 300,000 a day, so that is a little good news. However, if cases level off at 150,000 or so a day, the situation is still pretty bad.

Deaths exceeded 2600 today, the most since April. As I posted earlier, we can expect them to exceed 3000 by the second week of this month, given the number of cases a few weeks ago. But if cases have peaked, deaths will, too.

This was posted by a fb friend:

Percent of wages currently subsidized by governments due to COVID:

Japan: 100% for small businesses; 80% for large firms
Netherlands: Up to 90%
Norway: Up to 90%
Germany: Up to 87%
France: Up to 84%
Italy: 80%
United Kingdom: Up to 80%
Canada: Up to 75%
United States: 0%

 

[yaco]

Actually I think you can. Obviously something wasn't handled well in Indiana.

Except like in most countries inc Australia 80+ per death of deaths were older people 70+ and most came from nursing homes - Few countries have protected older people.

 

[Cookster15]

Except like in most countries inc Australia 80+ per death of deaths were older people 70+ and most came from nursing homes - Few countries have protected older people.

There is a reason for that. Look at Sweden. Nearly all the elderly deaths were early in the pandemic before the virus became better understood. Since then in Sweden, like Australia, very few deaths in aged care. Of course as you know the Australian state of Victoria was an exception but they learned a painful lesson.

 

[yaco]

Cookster espouses the 'small village mentality' view of many in Australia - In their world there was never a lockdown in Europe, even though there was a strict lockdown in a number of European countries for between 8 to 12 weeks from March to June - And these lockdowns in some countries were more severe than what happened in Australia, excluding Victoria who went through a second lockdown - For Europe to become like Australia or New Zealand they would need a continent lockdown of five or six months which is not feasible.

 

[yaco]

There is a reason for that. Look at Sweden. Nearly all the elderly deaths were early in the pandemic before the virus became better understood. Since then in Sweden, like Australia, very few deaths in aged care. Of course as you know the Australian state of Victoria was an exception but they learned a painful lesson.

The fact is that 80% of deaths in Australia came from the elderly and mostly in nursing homes - Australia like most countries failed their elderly people because they did not put into place protocols to better protect elderly people - Such as they never introduced mandatory testing of staff in these establishments - After all, Nursing homes had no visitors for many months, so exposure to the virus could only come from staff.

 

[Cookster15]

The fact is that 80% of deaths in Australia came from the elderly and mostly in nursing homes - Australia like most countries failed their elderly people because they did not put into place protocols to better protect elderly people - Such as they never introduced mandatory testing of staff in these establishments - After all, Nursing homes had no visitors for many months, so exposure to the virus could only come from staff.

Yes. This is old news. No longer relevant.

 

[Cookster15]

Cookster espouses the 'small village mentality' view of many in Australia - In their world there was never a lockdown in Europe, even though there was a strict lockdown in a number of European countries for between 8 to 12 weeks from March to June - And these lockdowns in some countries were more severe than what happened in Australia, excluding Victoria who went through a second lockdown - For Europe to become like Australia or New Zealand they would need a continent lockdown of five or six months which is not feasible.

Can you please quote from what I have actually posted where I said no lockdown in Europe? I have never stated that. To the contrary. Your comment completely missed my points.

 

[8472]

A year after Wuhan alarm, China seeks to change Covid origin story

Reports in state media signal an intensifying propaganda effort to place the birth of the virus in other countries

www.theguardian.com

As more and more evidence emerge, so should the facts regarding the original source or sources (multiple) of the virus, instead of being fixated on blaming China, turning a blind eye on all new evidence acquired. From the Lancet: "Analysts said the incident shows how complicated and tricky it is to answer the scientific question of COVID-19 origin-tracing and it is bound to be completed through joint efforts of the international community, as the virus may have existed in multiple places before it was identified and reported".

"'More evidence suggests the early existence of the virus in the world before human beings became aware of it, and it points to multiple sources"

This from the WSJ:

Covid-19 Likely in U.S. in Mid-December 2019, CDC Scientists Report

The new coronavirus infected people in the U.S. in mid-December 2019, a few weeks before it was officially identified in China and about a month earlier than public health authorities found the first U.S. case, according to a government study.

www.wsj.com

"The scientists based their study on blood samples that the American Red Cross collected between Dec. 13 and Jan. 17 and later sent to the CDC for testing to see if any had antibodies to the new coronavirus, which is named SARS-CoV-2.
In analyzing the blood samples, the CDC scientists found antibodies in 39 samples from California, Oregon and Washington state collected between Dec. 13 and Dec. 16 ". Serum antibodies in mid December means an earlier infection time in early December, which was not reported or "covered up for many months" if you want to apply the same reporting standards instead of the usual double standards. Where's all the outrage?

SARS-CoV-2 infections have been retroactively found in France and Italy in blood samples that were taken in November 2019 or earlier. A study by the National Cancer Institute of Milan found the novel coronavirus in blood samples collected in October 2019, and research led by the University of Barcelona showed the presence of the virus in samples of sewage in Barcelona in March 2019.

 

[Cookster15]

As more and more evidence emerge, so should the facts regarding the original source or sources (multiple) of the virus, instead of being fixated on blaming China, turning a blind eye on all new evidence acquired. From the Lancet: "Analysts said the incident shows how complicated and tricky it is to answer the scientific question of COVID-19 origin-tracing and it is bound to be completed through joint efforts of the international community, as the virus may have existed in multiple places before it was identified and reported".

"'More evidence suggests the early existence of the virus in the world before human beings became aware of it, and it points to multiple sources"

This from the WSJ:

Covid-19 Likely in U.S. in Mid-December 2019, CDC Scientists Report

The new coronavirus infected people in the U.S. in mid-December 2019, a few weeks before it was officially identified in China and about a month earlier than public health authorities found the first U.S. case, according to a government study.

www.wsj.com

"The scientists based their study on blood samples that the American Red Cross collected between Dec. 13 and Jan. 17 and later sent to the CDC for testing to see if any had antibodies to the new coronavirus, which is named SARS-CoV-2.
In analyzing the blood samples, the CDC scientists found antibodies in 39 samples from California, Oregon and Washington state collected between Dec. 13 and Dec. 16 ". Serum antibodies in mid December means an earlier infection time in early December, which was not reported or "covered up for many months" if you want to apply the same reporting standards instead of the usual double standards. Where's all the outrage?

SARS-CoV-2 infections have been retroactively found in France and Italy in blood samples that were taken in November 2019 or earlier. A study by the National Cancer Institute of Milan found the novel coronavirus in blood samples collected in October 2019, and research led by the University of Barcelona showed the presence of the virus in samples of sewage in Barcelona in March 2019.

This sounds similar to what I have heard from a Chinese source. Then there is a suggestion Covid-19 was brought into Wuhan by visiting American soldiers. Not sure how that is possible for obvious reasons but this is what I hear from a Chinese Australian who reads and follows Chinese language news sites. But I guess I am simply espousing the 'small village mentality' view

 

[movingtarget]

The fact is that 80% of deaths in Australia came from the elderly and mostly in nursing homes - Australia like most countries failed their elderly people because they did not put into place protocols to better protect elderly people - Such as they never introduced mandatory testing of staff in these establishments - After all, Nursing homes had no visitors for many months, so exposure to the virus could only come from staff.

Staff that in some cases were poorly equipped and had probably received minimal training regarding Covid issues.

 

[Merckx index]

"'More evidence suggests the early existence of the virus in the world before human beings became aware of it, and it points to multiple sources"

This from the WSJ:

https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa1785/6012472

The question is whether antibodies to SARS-CoV---which were also reported in a study of samples in Italy taken from last fall--could have resulted from immune reaction to another coronavirus. Only one of the 100+ samples in this study bound to the S1 subunit of the spike protein, and one other to the RBD receptor binding domain. The others bound to some other portion of the virus. They did inactivate the virus, which is encouraging, but a recent study reported that antibodies to another, relatively harmless coronavirus also had such neutralizing activity:

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/11/05/science.abe1107

This study is notable, because most of the antibodies, like those in the one reported in the WSJ link, did not bind to the S1 subunit. They were much more prevalent in children than in adults, which might provide at least part of the explanation why the fatality rate is so much lower in children. In any case, I don't think antibodies reactive towards SARS-CoV-2 prove that the people at that time were exposed to the virus.

The possibility that the antibodies resulted from exposure to another, relatively harmless coronavirus is also consistent with the study carried out in Italy. They reported that more than 11% of the samples had antibodies reacting with SARS-CoV-2. That is a rate almost as high as the estimated current seroprevalence in the U.S., with its 14 million documented cases. This raises the obvious question: if the virus was so prevalent in Italy at that time, why was there no evidence of a pandemic?

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journals.sagepub.com

Another possibility to consider is based on the well-established premise that SARS-CoV-2 jumped from a non-human to species. When this occurred, the virus might initially not have been SARS-CoV-2, but a closely related form that was not as infectious nor as deadly as SARS-CoV-2. This virus then mutated to SARS-CoV-2 while within the human population. This would explain why antibodies reactive to SARS-CoV-2 were present in populations before the virus actually began spreading.

Wrt the Barcelona study, only one positive sample was found, way back in March 2019. None was found in the intervening period. It seems implausible that the virus was present in Italy way back then, and did not spread even enough to appear in subsequent wastewater samples. In any PCR study like this, one has to consider the possibility of contamination.

Where's all the outrage?

Outrage over what? Even if could be proven definitively that SARS-CoV-2 was present in populations outside of China last year, the fact remains that the spread did not begin until in China in late December. Why would that be the case if the virus originated somewhere else?

Also, note that the virus with the highest sequence homology to SARS-CoV-2 has been found in a species of bat that lives in China. A virus with the highest sequence homology to RBD has been found in pangolins in China. AFAIK, no one has reported a virus with sequence homology to SARS-CoV-2 of more than 70% in an animal species outside of China--though to be fair, there hasn't been as much research directed to finding one.

Since we're discussing China's role again, I'll note that CNN just published a special report of leaked documents that suggest, among other things, that China was under-reporting its C19 statistics, though as far as I can tell, not grossly so.

It is not clear to what extent the central government was aware of the actions taking place in Hubei at that time, or how much information was being shared and with whom. The documents offer no indication that authorities in Beijing were directing the local decision-making process.

However, Mertha, the JHU academic, said the mismatch between the higher internal and lower public figures on the February death toll "appeared to be a deception, for unsurprising reasons."

"China had an image to protect internationally, and lower-ranking officials had a clear incentive to under-report -- or to show their superiors that they were under-reporting -- to outside eyes," he said.

Conversely, however, the leaked documents also provide something of a defense of China's overall handling of the virus. The reports show that in the early stages of the pandemic, China faced the same problems of accounting, testing, and diagnosis that still haunt many Western democracies even now -- issues compounded by Hubei encountering an entirely new virus.

Similarly, no mention is made by officials of a so-called laboratory leak, or that the virus was man-made, as some critics, including top US officials, have claimed without evidence. There is one mention of sub-par facilities at a bacterial and toxic species preservation center, though the point is not elaborated on, nor is its significance made clear.

China and its healthcare workers were under immense strain as the outbreak took hold, said Yang, from the Council of Foreign Relations.

"They had a massive run on the medical system. They were overwhelmed. There was truly despair among medical professionals by the end of January, because they were extremely overworked and they were also enormously discouraged by the high number of deaths that were occurring with a disease they had not treated previously," he added.

Hubei, which lags far behind Beijing, Shanghai and other major Chinese administrative divisions in terms of GDP per capita, was the first region to confront a virus that would go on to confound many of the world's most powerful countries.

Schaffner, from Vanderbilt University, said many of the comments in the documents might have been made in the US, "where, over the past 15 to 20 years, at particularly the state and the local level, public health funding has become constrained."

The documents show health care officials had no comprehension as to the magnitude of the impending disaster.

Nowhere in the files is it indicated that officials believed the virus would become a global pandemic.

The Wuhan files: Leaked documents reveal China's mishandling of the early stages of COVID-19

At several critical moments in the early phase of the pandemic, the documents show evidence of clear missteps and point to a pattern of institutional failings.

cnnphilippines.com

 

[Jagartrott]

Europe needs to stop pointing the finger across the Atlantic and accept responsibility for its own failings with Covid-19. Too many excuses.

I have no idea what you are talking about. How did "Europe" point the finger to the US regarding covid? The only thing that happened the past 9 months or so is that we, like most of the world, have been looking with some bewilderment at the lack of leadership from the US president on this. We have never put blame regarding our own situation on the US. Why would we? The borders between Europe and the US are largely closed off and have been for most of the year. It really is a non-issue, so I don't understand what you're on about. There's plenty of harsh criticism on our own government's responses and failings, don't worry about that.

Also, almost all European countries closed their borders (except for transport of goods etc.) in March, opening them again only early June (Schengen only). The thing is, corona had seeded in January, February, before anyone realized. It's clear that the virus can stay underground for a while, then, when it has surpassed some critical threshold, the spread can be extremely rapid. Responding mid-March was too late, but, like the rest of the world, we were largely oblivious of how far the virus had already spread.

 

[Cookster15]

I have no idea what you are talking about. How did "Europe" point the finger to the US regarding covid? The only thing that happened the past 9 months or so is that we, like most of the world, have been looking with some bewilderment at the lack of leadership from the US president on this. We have never put blame regarding our own situation on the US. Why would we? The borders between Europe and the US are largely closed off and have been for most of the year. It really is a non-issue, so I don't understand what you're on about. There's plenty of harsh criticism on our own government's responses and failings, don't worry about that.

Also, almost all European countries closed their borders (except for transport of goods etc.) in March, opening them again only early June (Schengen only). The thing is, corona had seeded in January, February, before anyone realized. It's clear that the virus can stay underground for a while, then, when it has surpassed some critical threshold, the spread can be extremely rapid. Responding mid-March was too late, but, like the rest of the world, we were largely oblivious of how far the virus had already spread.

I’n not suggesting you are blaming the US. I am suggesting some have suggested the US is a disaster and have ignored their own backyard. What you describe as the reason for the spread of the virus sounds very similar to what occurred in the US although I will concede attitudes by US leadership didn’t help.

It's clear that the virus can stay underground for a while, then, when it has surpassed some critical threshold, the spread can be extremely rapid

Yes it spreads rapidly but critical thresholds? I haven’t seen that discussed here. Europe was too slow to shut the gate. Flights were arriving with the virus from China or Iran before you knew. Much like my country but we have lower population densities and lower foreign arrivals. A lockdown was easier to implement and sustain.