Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Unchained]

COVID-19 cases and deaths in nursing home residents and staff U.S. 2021 | Statista

As of March 7, 2021, there had been a total number of 641,608 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 130,296 deaths among nursing home residents in the United States.

www.statista.com

 

[Unchained]

COVID-19's toll on nursing homes

Nursing home-related deaths account for 39 percent of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., says a new report in the New York Times.

arktimes.com

 

[Unchained]

The numbers are there..you just have to care if old people are dying,pretty straight forward..but I will put on my social catchers mitt and prepare for another wild pitch like the comment about the young guy having a stroke as no big deal..to flip to be believed..
we have over 1000+ people a day dying,no end in sight,stormy medical forecasting and 280,000+ already dead.
Covid on the podium for the number one cause of death in the United States..
tweeting and tee times don't work for medical issues..they just don't.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Not to beat a dead horse, but these numbers do not happen if there is significant immunity from cross-reactive T cells.

AAAS

science.sciencemag.org

 

[Jagartrott]

Well then we should keep doing the same thing while expecting different results.

That's not what it said. It said combining high infection rates and low infections with vulnerable groups. Plenty of countries have shown that you can keep infections down, protecting the vulnerable at the same time (which is completely logical). Countries that are able to do that, also have less economic damage - a good comparison is for example Norway and Finland vs. Sweden: the first two had far less cases, far less dead, and suffered lower economic losses in the first wave compared to Sweden. It's mainly the virus that is causing harm to the economy.

Right. Because we know who is vulnerable (elderly, morbidities, etc) so it’s just not fair to even suggest that those at most risk shelter until vaccines are available. Yes, far better to demand the whole of the population shelter so we can destroy many more lives.

So mental problems are irrelevant for c. 20% of the population (i.e. the vulnerable). Way to counter your own empathy argument. How does an 85-year-old who needs daily care "shelter" exactly?

I’ll go ahead and guess you aren’t being harmed financially by the shut downs.

Duh, I live in a welfare state dude. People are actually supported by their government.

By the way: you still haven't proposed what measures you would support then.

 

[Merckx index]

The nursing home data show that deaths continue to rise there more or less in parallel with cases in society. Here's a radical idea:

Require all NH staff to live in the NH 24/7. Maybe allow them to go outside once a week to visit their families or whatever, but mostly lock them in. If they can't go out, they can't get infected, and they can't bring the infection back to the NH patients. Spare those patients, and you cut the mortality rate by 40%.

Given that NH patients are first in line for vaccinations, this would only have to be temporary, so it wouldn't be that much of a burden on the staff.

 

[Sciatic]

The nursing home data show that deaths continue to rise there more or less in parallel with cases in society. Here's a radical idea:

Require all NH staff to live in the NH 24/7. Maybe allow them to go outside once a week to visit their families or whatever, but mostly lock them in. If they can't go out, they can't get infected, and they can't bring the infection back to the NH patients. Spare those patients, and you cut the mortality rate by 40%.

Given that NH patients are first in line for vaccinations, this would only have to be temporary, so it wouldn't be that much of a burden on the staff.

I see that this would make sense epidemiologically, but have you ever spent day after day just visiting with a nursing home? Oh god, I’m pretty sure I would quit if I was told I had to stay in the NH 24 hrs a day. I could totally see that in hospitals I’ve worked in, but not in a nursing home.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

It's mainly the virus that is causing harm to the economy.

No. It's our reaction to the virus that's causing harm to the economy.

So mental problems are irrelevant for c. 20% of the population (i.e. the vulnerable). Way to counter your own empathy argument. How does an 85-year-old who needs daily care "shelter" exactly?

Not irrelevant at all. But to the point, if we knew that the virus brutally attacked the young (H1N1) but had posed very little risk adults would we shut down schools and the economy and sequester kids, or just shut down schools and sequester kids?

Not everybody in high risk groups need daily care. An 85 year old that needs daily care is at risk (not just from COVID either) and there's no way around it. CDC has published guidelines and access to PPE, testing and training at these facilities hopefully is extremely high on the priority list. Do we shut down the economy to then do a miserable job protecting those in nursing homes? It's really not can we protect this group it's will we protect this group. See MI's post above.

Duh, I live in a welfare state dude.

You sound proud of that.

People are actually supported by their government.

Belgian GDP 2020 Q1, -2%, Q2, -13.9%, Q3, -4.5%. You guys were locked down again in Q4 so those numbers will be bleak and Q1 2021 probably won't be much better and the EU heavy hitters are doing as bad or worse than Belgium.

I think the question you should be asking yourself is how long do you think that welfare support can continue?

 

[Chris Gadsden]

but I will put on my social catchers mitt and prepare for another wild pitch like the comment about the young guy having a stroke as no big deal..to flip to be believed..

You can make whatever case you want about a young guy and his resulting issues with COVID. Here's a fact for you. If anyone in that age range - the world over - is infected with COVID they have a 99.8% chance of not dying.

I know you expect that number to be 100% and also expect a 100% antiseptic existence, but 99.8% is about as good as you will be getting. Sorry.

Everybody feel bad for the .2%. Everybody.

 

[movingtarget]

Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid vaccine has 70% efficacy, full trial data shows

Newly published data shows 90% efficacy only in small group who got half-dose first

www.theguardian.com

 

[movingtarget]

US coronavirus cases pass 15m amid stark warnings over hospital care

Pennsylvania governor voices fears for hospital capacity while senior WHO doctor calls US virus epidemic ‘punishing’

www.theguardian.com

 

[djpbaltimore]

No. It's our reaction to the virus that's causing harm to the economy.



Not irrelevant at all. But to the point, if we knew that the virus brutally attacked the young (H1N1) but had posed very little risk adults would we shut down schools and the economy and sequester kids, or just shut down schools and sequester kids?

I think we went over this before, but influenza doesn't really kill school age children unless they have other issues. Under 5 are the susceptible ones.

 

[Unchained]

Chris I would say after today " my reaction to the virus " probably won't change.
As President Trump acknowledged to Bob Woodward,the virus is dangerous,deadly and contagious,I agree then and now, 110%.
President Trump doesn't use email or read by his own admission, I agree with that,but wish he did.
President Trump has disagreed,often strongly w subject matter expertise both from people in his employ and w most worldwide.
Today,@38 weeks into Covid worldwide pandemic, the UK began aggressive distribution of a vaccine, in contrast, President Trump said in a news conference that he still wants to wait and see who will oversee the vaccine rollout and national distribution,because he is not sure who won the election yet..OK.
But the only thing you would never do is entertain both outcomes for the good of the American people,put the other possibility in motion,so that any possible winner would be in an informed and good position for the distribution of the vaccine..any delay or impediment should be unacceptable to any person assuming the office of President of the United States..
Anything else makes you a C-NT.
As a young man,seeds were segregated to leave only leaf for smoking,later hybrids that were 100's of times stronger have been developed as by one hit,a single toke, or cleared bong bowl will blow your mind..
Not sure what drugs the Donald is doing..but this type of behavior during a critical Covid vaccine press conference is completely whack..out of this world crazy and irresponsible..
Contempt for our people..

 

[Unchained]

And an executive order saying Americans will get the vaccine before other people of the world..
Pfizer has trumped, Trump, they didn't use government money for the drugs development..they didn't stack manufacturer drugs using federal dollars on the assumption of success and approval.. Warp Speed cash was used by others, not Pfizer.
they are saying that the second availability date for the US is June..
The question of which administration will distribute and oversee the majority of the vaccine process to the American public is settled,it will be President Biden doing that..at this point, it's obvious to any thinking person that giving more misinformation is stupid.

 

[Unchained]

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mBwQTghCs2A

 

[Unchained]

A few things to make perfectly clear..the background says Warp Speed..the press conference was called for details about the vaccine distribution process..
The election he is talking about was a month ago..
If the stock market,getting lots of votes, unemployment have anything to do with Covid-19 in his mind,
it's clear how we got where we are leading everyone in deaths and cases..
it's like watching a drunk high person play Pandemic Mad Libs..
this has to be LSD or Angel Dust

 

[Koronin]

With more information released today on the Pfizer vaccine, it looks extremely good. Maybe by next fall it will be available to actually receive. I'd be willing to take it. I'm still not sure about the Moderna one. I refuse to take the AstraZenica one. There are way too many problems with it's study and it's effective rate is way, way, way below the other two. Obviously we still have no information yet on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine and won't until sometime in January at the soonest. The big difference with the J&J one is that it's just one shot compared to two shots.

 

[BroDeal]

Jeebus! Can you do whatever is required to cure yourself of Trump Derangement Syndrome? Take some of those drugs you have been talking about. Get laid. Go ride your bike. Do something. The election is over. It has been over for a freaking month. Nearly every one of your posts is just using covid-19 as a pretext to spray your bile over Trump into the thread. It is not useful and, even worse, it is boring.

People like you are the reason why half the population cannot determine what they should believe about the virus. To you the virus is just something that can be used to push your political agenda, and you don't give a damn about the people who die because of turmoil and toxic environment you deliberately create.

 

[Merckx index]

Maybe by next fall it will be available to actually receive.

Not clear to me what the Pfizer situation is. The media have reported that the Administration turned down a chance to buy more than 100 million doses, so there won't be enough for the country until maybe June or later. However, Azar says that when the Administration committed to paying for the 100 million doses, they also signed an agreement to negotiate on further doses, and he seems to be saying the Administration is still negotiating.

The election is over. It has been over for a freaking month.

Well, that's about 1% the length of time since the reasoned decision, and you're still trashing Tygart, and even Betsy and JV. None of them, even according to their worst critics, has caused remotely as much damage as the President's attacks on the electoral system probably have.

People like you are the reason why half the population cannot determine what they should believe about the virus. To you the virus is just something that can be used to push your political agenda, and you don't give a damn about the people who die because of turmoil and toxic environment you deliberately create.

If the paragraph preceding this one hadn't referred to someone's posts, I might have thought this one was addressed to the President.

Given that any pandemic demands a political response, anyone's view of it is going to be colored by one's political views. But there is a huge difference--which seems to get lost in all the political sniping--between promoting a certain political response based on your understanding of the virus, on the one hand, and using the virus to reinforce a political view, on the other. Most people who advocate social restrictions do so because they they believe, rightly or wrongly, that these will save more lives, NOT because they see this as a way of promoting more governmental control, or as an excuse to bash Trump.

Whenever there's a horrific crash on certain stage finishes, many riders complain about the lack of foresight by the race organizers in allowing that kind of road conditions. Are they using the crash as a way of promoting more control over all aspects of the race by the organizers? Of course not, they're just trying to stay safe.

 

[Koronin]

Not clear to me what the Pfizer situation is. The media have reported that the Administration turned down a chance to buy more than 100 million doses, so there won't be enough for the country until maybe June or later. However, Azar says that when the Administration committed to paying for the 100 million doses, they also signed an agreement to negotiate on further doses, and he seems to be saying the Administration is still negotiating.



Well, that's about 1% the length of time since the reasoned decision, and you're still trashing Tygart, and even Betsy and JV. None of them, even according to their worst critics, has caused remotely as much damage as the President's attacks on the electoral system probably have.



If the paragraph preceding this one hadn't referred to someone's posts, I might have thought this one was addressed to the President.

Given that any pandemic demands a political response, anyone's view of it is going to be colored by one's political views. But there is a huge difference--which seems to get lost in all the political sniping--between promoting a certain political response based on your understanding of the virus, on the one hand, and using the virus to reinforce a political view, on the other. Most people who advocate social restrictions do so because they they believe, rightly or wrongly, that these will save more lives, NOT because they see this as a way of promoting more governmental control, or as an excuse to bash Trump.

Whenever there's a horrific crash on certain stage finishes, many riders complain about the lack of foresight by the race organizers in allowing that kind of road conditions. Are they using the crash as a way of promoting more control over all aspects of the race by the organizers? Of course not, they're just trying to stay safe.

They can still buy more vaccine from Pfizer, but Pfizer has other countries with contracts for already purchased vaccines. Pfizer has said after the first 100million doses any more vaccine the US buys can't be delivered until June at the soonest due to other contracts with other countries that have already been purchased. New purchases go AFTER current purchases. They can keep negotiating, but the longer before they actually pay for more the longer it's going to be before more can be delivered. It sounds like negotiating would be on number of doses and price, but there is no negotiating on when they anymore will be delivered. I suspect the longer they wait the longer it will be before more will be allocated for the US.

 

[Jagartrott]

No. It's our reaction to the virus that's causing harm to the economy.

You quoted the last sentence only, thus removing the part where I demonstrated that stricter measures early on actually save the economy. If you keep the virus in check, you're better off than when you keep things open 'for economical reasons', as in the latter case, you'll be overwhelmed eventually, thus having to cut deeper or risk dead bodies piling up. Even if you do nothing, there will be plenty of people not going out anymore, thus hurting the economy as well. Moreover, there's an economic cost to people getting sick, suffering from long term covid effects.

Not irrelevant at all. But to the point, if we knew that the virus brutally attacked the young (H1N1) but had posed very little risk adults would we shut down schools and the economy and sequester kids, or just shut down schools and sequester kids?

Not everybody in high risk groups need daily care. An 85 year old that needs daily care is at risk (not just from COVID either) and there's no way around it. CDC has published guidelines and access to PPE, testing and training at these facilities hopefully is extremely high on the priority list. Do we shut down the economy to then do a miserable job protecting those in nursing homes? It's really not can we protect this group it's will we protect this group. See MI's post above.

Again, no country has succeeded in having high infection rates AND avoid the infections reaching the vulnerable. Sweden has tried, and failed. So your argument is neglecting reality.

Belgian GDP 2020 Q1, -2%, Q2, -13.9%, Q3, -4.5%. You guys were locked down again in Q4 so those numbers will be bleak and Q1 2021 probably won't be much better and the EU heavy hitters are doing as bad or worse than Belgium.

I think the question you should be asking yourself is how long do you think that welfare support can continue?

As long as the Belgian government can borrow at negative rates (i.e. we receive money for new debts), I think that is not the most pressing issue. I'd rather sacrifice some economic growth for a society in which people are supported for bridging the tough times, don't get evicted from their homes, and can avoid ending up in poverty and all the problems that causes in the longer term. If economic growth means Jeff Bezos can buy 10 new private planes but average Joe needs to work two jobs just to get by, what is it worth then?

You're still staying silent on any feasible way forward, by the way. I guess I shouldn't hold my breath.

 

[8472]

With more information released today on the Pfizer vaccine, it looks extremely good. Maybe by next fall it will be available to actually receive. I'd be willing to take it. I'm still not sure about the Moderna one. I refuse to take the AstraZenica one. There are way too many problems with it's study and it's effective rate is way, way, way below the other two. Obviously we still have no information yet on the Johnson & Johnson vaccine and won't until sometime in January at the soonest. The big difference with the J&J one is that it's just one shot compared to two shots.

AstraZeneca vaccine study published in the Lancet today.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext

AstraZeneca found by chance that its vaccine works best when the first dose is smaller than the second one. Vector immunity can explain why this is the case. A first high dose will create some immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 virus but also some immunity against the vector virus, so when a first high dose has trained the immune system to fight the vector virus the second 'booster' vaccine dose using the same vector will become inefficient. A lower first dose can make sure that the second higher dose is not prematurely defeated by vector immunity but can still do its work.

The AstraZeneca vaccine was developed by Oxford Uni and cost per dose will be around $3 per shot, far below the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines that will cost around $30 per shot, and don't require storage at or below -70C, so for the majority of the world, the latter two options are just not viable to be used largescale. If countries want to limit the global effects of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, they will have to resort to the cheaper vector based vaccines, which also includes the Chinese and Russian vaccines.

 

[djpbaltimore]

All that is plausible about vector antibodies. But AFAIK, they are using the higher dose in their big US clinical trial. I don't think they will have the ability to switch dosing schemes when they apply for an EUA. Especially when the data is based on a small subset of a separate study. Regulators do have a lot of discretion, so I am curious to see how they treat this finding. Of course, the higher dose would be on track to be approved because it is above the FDA threshold of 50%, assuming that the efficacy in the new trial matches the old one.

A not great development due to COVID will be qualified medical people thinking twice about doing public service. You couldn't pay me enough to put up with this.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1336671293043863556

View: https://twitter.com/KatyTurNBC/status/1336671293043863556

 

[BlueRoads]

Just something I find interesting, wonder if it's similar in other countries: Germany has a lot of borders, lies pretty much in the middle of Europe. To the north, though, there's a coastal line and a rather small border to Denmark. If you scroll down a bit you will find a map of our current Corona-numbers:

Corona-Zahlen: Zahlen und Grafiken zum Coronavirus

Neuinfektionen, Todesfälle, Testungen und Übersterblichkeit: Aktuelle Zahlen zum Coronavirus in Deutschland und der Welt.

www.sueddeutsche.de

The situation has been like this for some weeks now. The numbers are especially high in the south-east, at the borders to the Tchech Republic. They are pretty low in the north, although Denmarks numbers aren't low at all. There have been discussions about whether people in Saxony (south-east) do not respect the rules like in the north... but what it really shows, in my opinion, is that a coastal line has a huge effect, because the inner-german "borders" are open, and while the north is less populated than for instance the south west, so is Saxony.
(Also the socio-economic relationships are important. While there is cross-border work and economy in all directions, there are many "cheap" workers coming from the Tchech Republic to Germany, they often don't work in offices, which can become home offices, but closer together in tight spaces, eg. factories, or some come to work as nurses, or care for the elderly in the households.)

 

[Unchained]

If reports from company officials hold out to be accurate,Johnson and Johnson has a single dose vaccine in development that could be ready at the end of January..not sure,but it sounds significant that it can be stored and transported at regular temps..no 94 below zero!!
Americans need to keep their fingers crossed for a relief bill before Congress Christmas break..people could use a little good news before the holiday.

Home of the World Championships | Circuit of The Americas

The ultimate destination for racing and entertainment. Home to Formula 1, MotoGP, INDYCAR, Germania Insurance Amphitheater, COTA Karting, Austin Bold FC, and more.

circuitoftheamericas.com

Check out the promo photos for each event..it's hard to believe sitting here today that I was one of those screaming happy people from the crowd shots..Motorcycle racing scheduled for April..

Fast Facts | Monterey County, CA

MotoAmerica premier Superbike class features Yamaha, Suzuki, Kawasaki, Ducati and BMW motorcycles plus king of the baggers and heritage cup

www.co.monterey.ca.us

California in a state of lockdown w a doubling of ICU patients in 16 days..Weather Tech Laguna Seca is at least giving hope, first for the July scheduled races and for putting something other than a doomsday notice for camping..not sure what will happen with showers..before the showers were the size of a large 18 wheeler trailer, w 6 or 8 stalls..unlimited hot water..but it would look to be challenging for social distancing..

California reporting that fishing and hunting licences are way way way up..