Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Cookster15]

He posted the death rates with his tweet. They are rising. False positives sounds like the typical 'they died with covid, not from covid' BS that we have heard for the last two years. And his data is more updated than your link. Whether you think this is the appropriate strategy is another debate. But Denmark shows that even the most vaccinated countries are going to have large outbreaks due to Omicron family variants if you stop mitigating. People should be told this when countries declare victory. But I'm guessing that you weren't and now you are carrying water for them.

Rate: a measure, quantity, or frequency, typically one measured against another quantity or measure.

The death rate is not rising looking globally. World-o-meter shows the global death rate is now .43% (moving 7 day average daily deaths vs daily cases).

At the beginning of December the global death rate was 1.16% calculated the same way via World-o-meter stats. That's a fall in the death rate of about 60% - during the Northern hemisphere winter. Omicron wasn't really prominent in early December. But you don't need to be an expert to apply basic math. Then consider with omicron total cases is likely hugely under reported.

 

[djpbaltimore]

What is your point using global numbers when we were talking about individual countries? Global IFRs are going to improve as vaccination and infections generate immunity. And earlier waves have knocked off the more vulnerable people as well.

 

[Cookster15]

What is your point using global numbers when we were talking about individual countries? Global IFRs are going to improve as vaccination and infections generate immunity. And earlier waves have knocked off the more vulnerable people as well.

This thread isn’t just for localised stats. I choose not to see everything as glass half empty.

 

[Koronin]

Just a note for everyone. As you know my husband is going through Chemo (as of today he has 2 treatments left). He is fully vaccinated and got his booster shot (for Covid all Pfizer) the day of his first Chemo treatment. Today he was offered a fairly new preventative treatment for Covid specifically for immune compromised individuals. In the last two weeks it was just opened up to all Chemo patients (before this it was only to people getting very specific Chemo treatment). It's a monocional antibody preventative treatment called Evusheld. The hospital my husband is going to is a test clinic/hospital for many treatments/vaccines/etc. They have confirmation it does help with a patient who had gotten this treatment and has no immune system currently. He tested positive a week after getting this treatment and was asymptomatic. The catch is, this preventative treatment only lasts about 6 to 8 months. This is a big reason why it currently only has an EUA for Chemo patients who should be able to start building their immune system back after they finish their treatments. Also they are recommending a 4th booster shot specifically for Chemo patients around 6 months after their last Chemo treatment.

Just wanted to give this info in case anyone knows someone who is immune compromised for a specific reason that would be more short term if that person may be interested in finding out more about this.

As for how my husband is doing, well I think about as well as can be expected. He is having issues with his hands (known side effect they are working on), the rest of the side effects are under control. He's eating better now and gaining some strength back in his legs. Unfortunately his knees are still extremely week and his right one specifically is collapsing without warning. If anyone has any thoughts on how to help strengthen that, I'll listen. The doctor is planning on getting him into rehab after he finishes Chemo. We do have braces for his knees.

 

[jmdirt]

Just a note for everyone. As you know my husband is going through Chemo (as of today he has 2 treatments left). He is fully vaccinated and got his booster shot (for Covid all Pfizer) the day of his first Chemo treatment. Today he was offered a fairly new preventative treatment for Covid specifically for immune compromised individuals. In the last two weeks it was just opened up to all Chemo patients (before this it was only to people getting very specific Chemo treatment). It's a monocional antibody preventative treatment called Evusheld. The hospital my husband is going to is a test clinic/hospital for many treatments/vaccines/etc. They have confirmation it does help with a patient who had gotten this treatment and has no immune system currently. He tested positive a week after getting this treatment and was asymptomatic. The catch is, this preventative treatment only lasts about 6 to 8 months. This is a big reason why it currently only has an EUA for Chemo patients who should be able to start building their immune system back after they finish their treatments. Also they are recommending a 4th booster shot specifically for Chemo patients around 6 months after their last Chemo treatment.

Just wanted to give this info in case anyone knows someone who is immune compromised for a specific reason that would be more short term if that person may be interested in finding out more about this.

As for how my husband is doing, well I think about as well as can be expected. He is having issues with his hands (known side effect they are working on), the rest of the side effects are under control. He's eating better now and gaining some strength back in his legs. Unfortunately his knees are still extremely week and his right one specifically is collapsing without warning. If anyone has any thoughts on how to help strengthen that, I'll listen. The doctor is planning on getting him into rehab after he finishes Chemo. We do have braces for his knees.

I'm glad to hear that you husband is doing well!

 

[Netserk]

He posted the death rates with his tweet. They are rising. False positives sounds like the typical 'they died with covid, not from covid' BS that we have heard for the last two years. And his data is more updated than your link. Whether you think this is the appropriate strategy is another debate. But Denmark shows that even the most vaccinated countries are going to have large outbreaks due to Omicron family variants if you stop mitigating. People should be told this when countries declare victory. But I'm guessing that you weren't and now you are carrying water for them.

He posted the official numbers of covid deaths, not deaths in general (while he just wrote deaths). As I just showed you, deaths are declining. Delta caused a significant amount of excess mortality, Omicron not:

We boosted a third of the population in December:

While at the same time we went from Delta to Omicron:


The excess deaths we have seen this winter was caused by Delta (on the unboosted).

You may call it BS to distinguish between with/by covid, but given the very large number of cases and a definition of covid deaths as all deaths where the deceased had tested positive within the last 30 days, it's clear that the ratio of with/by shifts after boosters and the transition from Delta to Omicron. And I thought you have maybe just have the tiniest respect for the quality of the Danish data, when the authorities are examinating all death certificates of the official covid deaths and that the story it tells match what you'd expect (and the data you see for overall/excess deaths).

 

[Netserk]

I'm unable (even after waiting some time) to edit the post above, so here is the missing chart:

 

[djpbaltimore]

He posted the official numbers of covid deaths, not deaths in general (while he just wrote deaths). As I just showed you, deaths are declining. Delta caused a significant amount of excess mortality, Omicron not:

We boosted a third of the population in December:

While at the same time we went from Delta to Omicron:


The excess deaths we have seen this winter was caused by Delta (on the unboosted).

You may call it BS to distinguish between with/by covid, but given the very large number of cases and a definition of covid deaths as all deaths where the deceased had tested positive within the last 30 days, it's clear that the ratio of with/by shifts after boosters and the transition from Delta to Omicron. And I thought you have maybe just have the tiniest respect for the quality of the Danish data, when the authorities are examinating all death certificates of the official covid deaths and that the story it tells match what you'd expect (and the data you see for overall/excess deaths).

You keep saying deaths are not increasing, but the data say that they are.

Denmark COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Denmark Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

The delta vs omicron distinction is not as big as you suggest. Omicron is as deadly as OG SC2, so it will target the immune naive to a similar (albeit lesser) extent. It will have an IFR lower than delta, but the IFR is not 0. It looks like case counts have peaked, meaning deaths will likely increase for a few weeks or so due to the lag between the metrics. You can argue whether this was a good decision, but I don't think it is arguable that this decision has inevitably led to increased death. Cherry picking comorbidity from death certificates by motivated parties is something that has been repeated over and over and is not something that I find persuasive. Ymmv....

 

[Netserk]

Motivated parties? Is that also how you refer to CDC? (and I would argue that there is greater reason to trust Danish authorities than American authorities, but ymmv)

You link to number of official covid deaths, which I too have said is increasing. You don't link to deaths in general. Overall deaths is on the way down, deaths caused by covid have plateaued.

Given our vaccine status, the high level of evasiveness of Omicron means that the functional CFR is far lower now than the CFR was for Delta. That in turn logically means that the ratio of false positives (deaths with, not deaths by) has changed since then.

 

[jmdirt]

He posted the official numbers of covid deaths, not deaths in general (while he just wrote deaths). As I just showed you, deaths are declining. Delta caused a significant amount of excess mortality, Omicron not:

We boosted a third of the population in December:

While at the same time we went from Delta to Omicron:


The excess deaths we have seen this winter was caused by Delta (on the unboosted).

You may call it BS to distinguish between with/by covid, but given the very large number of cases and a definition of covid deaths as all deaths where the deceased had tested positive within the last 30 days, it's clear that the ratio of with/by shifts after boosters and the transition from Delta to Omicron. And I thought you have maybe just have the tiniest respect for the quality of the Danish data, when the authorities are examinating all death certificates of the official covid deaths and that the story it tells match what you'd expect (and the data you see for overall/excess deaths).

RE: dying of vs. with SC2: If you are in a care facility for breast cancer treatment and die because SC2 devoured your lungs, you died of SC2. It doesn't matter if you caught SC2 in the facility, it killed you. I don't think that there are any care facilities that are listing people who had SC2 in January, then die in a car crash today as "cause of death: SC2". I don't think that your definition is being used by any reputable care facility. Every cause of death has parameters.

 

[Netserk]

RE: dying of vs. with SC2: If you are in a care facility for breast cancer treatment and die because SC2 devoured your lungs, you died of SC2. It doesn't matter if you caught SC2 in the facility, it killed you. I don't think that there are any care facilities that are listing people who had SC2 in January, then die in a car crash today as "cause of death: SC2". I don't think that your definition is being used by any reputable care facility. Every cause of death has parameters.

It's not clear to me what you think I said.

The official definition of a covid death is any death where the deceased has tested positive within the last 30 days. That includes (the very small number of) car crashes. For the most of the pandemic that has only led to a small amount of false positives, and it has been somewhat stable. That has changed over the last two months, and because of that our CDC (SSI, Statens Serum Institut) have closely examinated our covid data to better correct for the change of the rate of false positives. That has led to better death data and better hospitalisation data.

 

[Ultrairon]

I guess you don't have young family members that have had Covid....twice? Their at risk Grandparents think they should now wear masks. I'm not the at risk portion of the equation but the other GP were poo-pooing the whole gravity of the matter until one of them spent a week hospitalized after he and golfing buddies came down with it. Granpa's cardiologist said next time don't call him to reinforce the seriousness.
The histrionics at school board meetings appears largely about parents' perspective and long held opinions; not child abuse via masks. The behavior of the parents sometimes calls into question what priorities they actually have.

It is child abuse in my opinion. Especially when you have a child who might have a learning disability due to speech. Then you turn around and force them into a mask and they endure the torture of being picked on. Not to mention the time lost on trying to sound out words with visual help.

Paper and Cloth masks make for a show and litter. They are not good for anything else.

I need to find the video of a teacher letting kids know they did not have to wear a mask anymore. You think they were all down in the dumps about it? Nope the opposite because we have tortured the kids long enough.
If grandmother and grandfather are at risk then they should stay away from them.

I lived with a father who was dying of lung cancer and emphysema way back in the 1980's. Every time my sister or I caught a cold or any type of illness we were unable to go home and had to live with an relative until we were better. That is essentially how we have to approach high risk people these days. They are unable to get around large crowds and certainly do not want people who are unvaxed to be around.

 

[Ultrairon]

Oldermanish, your point is spot on.
The team troll thing is always going to be alive and well in internet culture. The statement that it's never ok to physically and verbally abuse a teenage girl was a standard,not anymore.Serious subjects raised by Covid like intimidation and physical threat to people in the workplace were,are ignored as a new cultural norm. Centuries of " don't kill the messenger " are in the trash as loons go off the rails being asked to comply with policy in a private property,private business, choosing to vent on a teenager as a larger symbolic gesture and f-ck the kid,and the ultimate costs to all, involved or not.
if people don't think that there is a long term cost to Covid crazy conduct unbecoming of a human being they are wrong..Airplane,market,restaurant or coffee shop..behavior that used to get you shot,tazed or arrested is applauded and encouraged..sad for all..especially the kids who had way way way too many instances of instability and insanity about Covid from every direction.
YouTube a school board of city council meeting..looks like straight jackets and tranquilizer guns should be standard equipment and extra tin foil hats all around..

I am unsure but the rules of the forum might mention something about inadvertent accusations of trolling.

 

[jmdirt]

It's not clear to me what you think I said.

The official definition of a covid death is any death where the deceased has tested positive within the last 30 days. That includes (the very small number of) car crashes. For the most of the pandemic that has only led to a small amount of false positives, and it has been somewhat stable. That has changed over the last two months, and because of that our CDC (SSI, Statens Serum Institut) have closely examinated our covid data to better correct for the change of the rate of false positives. That has led to better death data and better hospitalisation data.

According to NCDHHS data, “COVID-19 deaths include people who have had a positive molecular (PCR) or antigen test for COVID-19, who died without fully recovering from COVID-19, and who had no alternative cause of death identified. Deaths are reported by hospitals and clinicians directly to the local and state health departments.”

When discussing this topic the director of our largest care system (actually the regions largest care system) explained the parameters for determining cause of death, and he listed the factors (plural). He said that in most cases (I think that he said 99+%) there is literally zero question that SC2 was the cause of death. The interviewer asked him about a case that caused a lot of public noise in our community where a prominent 35 year old lady who had been fighting SC2 for threeish weeks died of a SC2 heart attack. A local hate group used it as a rally point that she had a heart attack with SC2, they insisted that the hospital was just trying to 'pad' the numbers. The director said that her cause of death was completely due to SC2 consuming her lungs and cutting off oxygen to the cardiac muscle (all muscles). He also said that there was no indication that she would have had a heart attack otherwise.

 

[Netserk]

Just to be clear, the 30 days definition is the one that counts for the official covid deaths in Denmark (https://covid19.ssi.dk/datakilder-og-definitioner). Given that we were discussing those numbers, I thought it relevant to highlight what that included.

Different definitions in different countries easily lead to misunderstandings, so I try to be clear that I'm only talking about the Danish data.

 

[Oldermanish]

It is child abuse in my opinion. Especially when you have a child who might have a learning disability due to speech. Then you turn around and force them into a mask and they endure the torture of being picked on. Not to mention the time lost on trying to sound out words with visual help.

Paper and Cloth masks make for a show and litter. They are not good for anything else.

I need to find the video of a teacher letting kids know they did not have to wear a mask anymore. You think they were all down in the dumps about it? Nope the opposite because we have tortured the kids long enough.
If grandmother and grandfather are at risk then they should stay away from them.

I lived with a father who was dying of lung cancer and emphysema way back in the 1980's. Every time my sister or I caught a cold or any type of illness we were unable to go home and had to live with an relative until we were better. That is essentially how we have to approach high risk people these days. They are unable to get around large crowds and certainly do not want people who are unvaxed to be around.

We agree except: a) Using a specific condition like a learning disability along with creating a dramatic scenario to characterize all mask protocols for kids as being abuse is pure drama. How about a kid that's enduring cancer treatment or other immune compromising protocols and wants/needs to go to school? Does everyone wearing masks to protect that child constitute abuse? Is that child the only one that wears one? Do they stay home? Seems like there isn't a simple answer and when people protest with simple solutions they need to look into the real circumstances.
b) The whole litter thing must be your experience. I see it occasionally just like cigarette butts and dog poo. It doesn't make them "not good for anything else".

Your experience with your father rings true and your family's responsible respect is exactly the sort of response a civil society should have; rather than showing up at public meetings unmasked and threatening low-paid public servants.

Both of my parents died of lung cancer. None of it pretty or comfortable. My paternal grandfather went through several cancer-based surgeries: larynx first and continued smoking cigars. Then he gave up a lung. He survived 5 years in a bed with oxygen support and never once acknowledged that smoking was his fault or that he caused my grandmother so much pain. We see ample evidence of that sort of resistance today including tortured, fatal outcomes. I don't make those scenarios up; they're real.

 

[Unchained]

Sorry Ultra, would you prefer Devil's advocate?
Take any Covid response behavior and the numbers are staggering..police departments and air marshals,TSA, agents,school boards,ambulance operators,hospital staff and security all have documentation showing how many incidents before Covid and the explosion of Covid crazy behavior after the pandemic progressed..
In certain cases like airports and airlines, the government and the airlines themselves have had to modify their business model because they need to anticipate exponential growth in lunatics using their facilities and services.
Many airlines and airports have had to restrict or eliminate alcohol sales because of what alcohol does to those dealing with some type of bizarre and often violent Covid induced behavior.
there are some on the internet that refuse to recognise and acknowledge the Covid correlation to the behavior,even when the person or persons acting out say Covid is the cause, often yelling and ranting about Covid while in the acts of chaos and disruptions,violence.
barring people from entering government buildings, schools and being included on no fly lists should be the simple start to behavior modification for the offenders and the public at large. Seeking financial reimbursement for airplanes delayed,cancelled or turned around again should be a minimum so that this type of terror is punished.
The internet will always shield people who choose the path of contrarian even w evidence easy to access. I personally believe the police and air marshals when they say @1000%+ increase in incidents have occurred in public spaces and airports and aircraft, I don't think that they are conspiring to make it bigger than it is..
alcohol on an airplane is something I enjoy,shame that a mob of Covid @utt plugs messed it up for the rest..and more sorry still to know of the army of defenders that say it is ok

 

[Cookster15]

You keep saying deaths are not increasing, but the data say that they are.

Denmark COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Denmark Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

The delta vs omicron distinction is not as big as you suggest. Omicron is as deadly as OG SC2, so it will target the immune naive to a similar (albeit lesser) extent. It will have an IFR lower than delta, but the IFR is not 0. It looks like case counts have peaked, meaning deaths will likely increase for a few weeks or so due to the lag between the metrics. You can argue whether this was a good decision, but I don't think it is arguable that this decision has inevitably led to increased death. Cherry picking comorbidity from death certificates by motivated parties is something that has been repeated over and over and is not something that I find persuasive. Ymmv....

Omicron is as deadly as OG SC2

Provide the data. I don't see this anywhere. I have read comments and cherry picked opinions from you that it is uncertain if the lower percentage of deaths and hospitalizations from omicron are driven by vaccine or lower virulence. I have not seen this backed up with data. You are equally guilty of cherry picking without making a disclaimer as I do when I post my local data.

I posted expert opinion here that predicted hospitalizations and deaths would rapidly fall - and that is exactly what has eventuated and I have posted that data.

Netserk also posted an excellent chart showing omicron has replaced delta.

As for Denmark, worldometer shows the 7 day moving average is now .05% deaths (daily deaths vs daily cases). The death rate has fallen hugely compared to 1 month ago. We also know from global data that with omicron cases spike briefly then fall rapidly. If health workers in Maine are not under less pressure today than they were just two weeks ago I would be surprised. Likewise I think the immune naive has less to fear.

 

[jmdirt]

It is child abuse in my opinion. Especially when you have a child who might have a learning disability due to speech. Then you turn around and force them into a mask and they endure the torture of being picked on. Not to mention the time lost on trying to sound out words with visual help.

Paper and Cloth masks make for a show and litter. They are not good for anything else.

I need to find the video of a teacher letting kids know they did not have to wear a mask anymore. You think they were all down in the dumps about it? Nope the opposite because we have tortured the kids long enough.
If grandmother and grandfather are at risk then they should stay away from them.

I lived with a father who was dying of lung cancer and emphysema way back in the 1980's. Every time my sister or I caught a cold or any type of illness we were unable to go home and had to live with an relative until we were better. That is essentially how we have to approach high risk people these days. They are unable to get around large crowds and certainly do not want people who are unvaxed to be around.

No matter how many times you type that, it still isn't true.

As I've typed before I live less than a block from our neighborhood school and one of the District Speech and Language Pathologists lives a few houses away. She has a variety of masks similar to these so that kids can see her mouth and she can see theirs.

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If you think that wearing a mask is child abuse, you should come spend a Saturday with me when I'm working (well really playing) with at risk kids.

EDIT: Iron and Oldermanish sorry to hear about your parents. I lost my dad to lung cancer as well. I was an adult so maybe that makes it 'easier', but I was his caregiver for the final 20 days because he didn't want to die in a hospital. He worked on Blister Rust Crews in the 60s and they were basically spraying it with agent orange.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Provide the data. I don't see this anywhere. I have read comments and cherry picked opinions from you that it is uncertain if the lower percentage of deaths and hospitalizations from omicron are driven by vaccine or lower virulence. I have not seen this backed up with data. You are equally guilty of cherry picking without making a disclaimer as I do when I post my local data.

I posted expert opinion here that predicted hospitalizations and deaths would rapidly fall - and that is exactly what has eventuated and I have posted that data.

Netserk also posted an excellent chart showing omicron has replaced delta.

As for Denmark, worldometer shows the 7 day moving average is now .05% deaths (daily deaths vs daily cases). The death rate has fallen hugely compared to 1 month ago. We also know from global data that with omicron cases spike briefly then fall rapidly. If health workers in Maine are not under less pressure today than they were just two weeks ago I would be surprised. Likewise I think the immune naive has less to fear.

I already posted the data. Also, delta was replaced by omicron here too. I don't know how anybody can watch omicron kill nearly 3k people a day in the US and call it mild. Being less virulent than delta is great, but we have to face reality here. It is still pretty bad.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1489168685830868995

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/i/web/status/1489168685830868995

 

[Cookster15]

I already posted the data. Also, delta was replaced by omicron here too. I don't know how anybody can watch omicron kill nearly 3k people a day in the US and call it mild. Being less virulent than delta is great, but we have to face reality here. It is still pretty bad.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1489168685830868995

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/i/web/status/1489168685830868995

It’s about trends. The trend is good. Where did anyone say the US deaths are good?

omicron was about 75% as likely as delta to cause hospitalization in an unvaccinated person with no history of SARS-CoV-2 infection

Even this is positive news. I also posted data from my part of the world which is very positive. I also posted stats from worldometer that prove the rate of deaths is falling everywhere including the US.

Incessant pessimism won’t get rid of the pandemic or help relieve pressures on overworked health workers.

 

[jmdirt]

Ground Truths on Prior Covid

How failure of the United States to acknowledge the evidence has unnecessarily fueled divisiveness and a war against mandates

erictopol.substack.com

 

[jmdirt]

It’s about trends. The trend is good. Where did anyone say the US deaths are good?



Even this is positive news. I also posted data from my part of the world which is very positive. I also posted stats from worldometer that prove the rate of deaths is falling everywhere including the US.

Incessant pessimism won’t get rid of the pandemic or help relieve pressures on overworked health workers.

Being overly optimistic won't get rid of the pandemic or help relieve pressures on overwhelmed health workers either.

 

[Oldermanish]

We agree except: a) Using a specific condition like a learning disability along with creating a dramatic scenario to characterize all mask protocols for kids as being abuse is pure drama. How about a kid that's enduring cancer treatment or other immune compromising protocols and wants/needs to go to school? Does everyone wearing masks to protect that child constitute abuse? Is that child the only one that wears one? Do they stay home? Seems like there isn't a simple answer and when people protest with simple solutions they need to look into the real circumstances.
b) The whole litter thing must be your experience. I see it occasionally just like cigarette butts and dog poo. It doesn't make them "not good for anything else".

Your experience with your father rings true and your family's responsible respect is exactly the sort of response a civil society should have; rather than showing up at public meetings unmasked and threatening low-paid public servants.

Both of my parents died of lung cancer. None of it pretty or comfortable. My paternal grandfather went through several cancer-based surgeries: larynx first and continued smoking cigars. Then he gave up a lung. He survived 5 years in a bed with oxygen support and never once acknowledged that smoking was his fault or that he caused my grandmother so much pain. We see ample evidence of that sort of resistance today including tortured, fatal outcomes. I don't make those scenarios up; they're real.

Thanks to those that try to understand the different opinions and maintain the idea that people should do well to take care of each other.
For those that laugh off the sincerity of the dialogue, the actual pain suffering and death that leads normal people to an opinion based on real experience: I have no deep feelings other than bewilderment.

 

[Cookster15]

Being overly optimistic won't get rid of the pandemic or help relieve pressures on overwhelmed health workers either.

Define “overly” optimistic? Health workers are in a better position today than just a few weeks ago. I’m not reading much optimism here which is why I began contributing. And you can hardly claim the global media is optimistic. I have provided an example of a local expert who has been proven correct on omicron so far. I have posted data from my part of the world. I noticed who didn’t respond to those hence I have provided an alternative view point to provide some balance.