Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[dusty red roads]

Another promising treatment:


https://japantoday.com/category/nat...r-oral-covid-pill-approval-next-week-in-japan

 

[jmdirt]

Another promising treatment:


https://japantoday.com/category/nat...r-oral-covid-pill-approval-next-week-in-japan

I just caught the end of a story on my commute home:

"Fox says her health system in Utah has treated only about 15 early COVID patients with remdesivir so far. A larger-than-expected shipment of monoclonal antibody treatments received last month, provided free by the U.S. government, puts remdesivir on the backburner for now. "We have it, we want to use it, but we're kind of turning it on and off depending on how much sotrovimab we're getting," Fox says.

Baylor St. Luke's Medical Center in Houston also recently received an influx of other COVID-19 medications, and has ample supplies of monoclonal antibodies and COVID-19 pills, says Dr. Mayar Al Mohajer, chief of infectious diseases there. "We have access to three out of the four therapeutics. So, we didn't feel that providing outpatient remdesivir would provide an extra benefit for us," he says.

Remdesivir's role as a top COVID treatment may be short-lived. "I think 'stop-gap' is probably a good description," says Michael Ganio of the American Society of Health System Pharmacists. In other words, its use may be limited to times when monoclonals and pills are in short supply.

Over the next few months, the supply crunch on other highly effective COVID treatments – that can be taken at home as pills, or given in a single infusion – is expected to ease. "Those therapies are just easier to administer, and they're going to end up being preferred," Ganio says."

 

[dusty red roads]

Back to Vit D again - certainly doesn't hurt to try it (I take it anyway as my levels were low a few years back):

Vitamin D could be a piece of COVID-19's 'complex puzzle,' Israeli scientists say, after a new study finds a link between deficiency and severe illness

Vitamin D helps bolster the immune system to tackle viruses that attack the lungs, the researchers said.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[dusty red roads]

I just caught the end of a story on my commute home:

"Over the next few months, the supply crunch on other highly effective COVID treatments – that can be taken at home as pills, or given in a single infusion – is expected to ease. "Those therapies are just easier to administer, and they're going to end up being preferred," Ganio says."

Bring it on, the more (that are effective) the merrier!

 

[Nomad]

Back to Vit D again - certainly doesn't hurt to try it (I take it anyway as my levels were low a few years back):

Vitamin D could be a piece of COVID-19's 'complex puzzle,' Israeli scientists say, after a new study finds a link between deficiency and severe illness

Vitamin D helps bolster the immune system to tackle viruses that attack the lungs, the researchers said.

www.businessinsider.com

Vitamin D Status and SARS-CoV-2 Infection and COVID-19 Clinical Outcomes

Background: Several studies suggest an association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) and the outcomes of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona-Virus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, in particular Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) related severity ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[Mayomaniac]

Back to Vit D again - certainly doesn't hurt to try it (I take it anyway as my levels were low a few years back):

Vitamin D could be a piece of COVID-19's 'complex puzzle,' Israeli scientists say, after a new study finds a link between deficiency and severe illness

Vitamin D helps bolster the immune system to tackle viruses that attack the lungs, the researchers said.

www.businessinsider.com

Same here, even after riding my bike all sommer long my levels were at the lower end of the normal spectrum at the start of october.

 

[BullsFan22]

Some countries seem to have given up (for various reasons) while others are doubling down on tough measures and vaccinations.

I hope not, but it could be chaos before this is done.

 

[Cookster15]

Avoiding parroting antivax talking points would be a good start. But your reply underscores my point. Public health requires collective actions. The U.S. being so obsessed with individualism does not coexist well with public health. As I've stated, we should not need mandates because people should volunteer to do the morally correct thing. Most polio infections are minor in children, do you think polio vaccines should be mandated?

And now polls have come out showing that getting the flu vaccine has become aligned with who you pull the lever for. What has started as opposition to the covid vax is metastisizing into more generalized vaccination opposition. I expect this is going to get worse.

People should volunteer? Good luck with that. In western societies people do lots of things we don't want them too. Illicit drug use? There is ideology and then there is reality.

I am vaccinated against Covid. I also received the flu vaccine every year for over 20 years. But that was annual and optional. Nobody made it mandatory ("fully vaccinated"). Keeping my job was never at risk due to my vaccination status. But now we are asked to get boosters far more frequently than annually. Now to do such mundane activities like entering a club we must show proof of vaccination status to a burly security guard.

Meanwhile in my country I note new cases of omicron are rapidly falling away, repeating the trend seen elsewhere. This didn't happen purely thanks to vaccination. Time to consider this is well on its way to becoming endemic.

 

[jmdirt]

I'm confused: If you're "100% pro-recognizing DAI" then why would you make the comment that my son should just take the "two shots" to avoid the stress of having to submit to weekly testing per the college mandates? Since I'm "100% pro-DAI," having DAI myself, my response is that requiring testing in lieu of vaccination for those with DAI is unjustifiable & unfair. If the powers to be want to test every student regardless of vaccination status then that would be fair. However, if we agree that DIA is on equal footing with vaccination then it would only be fair that those with proven DIA would be on par with the vaccinated thus exempted from mandates.

And even more convincing is the recently released CDC study showing the effectiveness of natural immunity against Covid (in this case it was the Delta variant).

The CDC's Study on Natural Immunity Explained ⋆ Brownstone Institute

The Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) published by the Centers for Disease Control has released a fascinating study on comparing hospitalization with Covid-19 immunity status, thus addressing a topic of pressing concern for public health.

brownstone.org

In essence, the CDC is confirming the power of DAI to serve as protection against severe outcomes from reinfections. And since the vaccines appear to be doing a very good job in preventing severe disease & hospitalization - DAI is proving to provide the same level of protection. So, vaccines are good & so is DAI in combating this pandemic.

The $64,000 dollar question is will the Democratic governors & mayors amend their mandates to exempt those with proven DAI? The same with the existing Federal mandates (e.g. healthcare workers, universities & colleges, public schools, etc). If Liberal leadership refuses to amend the mandates ignoring the science that's problematic & how can I not be suspicious of other motives by the party leadership. If you look at the GOP states most have executive orders or have introduced legislation that makes DIA an exception to the mandates.

Some GOP states carving out "natural immunity" exception to COVID vaccine requirements

But currently authorized tests cannot measure how much protection you actually have from a prior infection.

www.google.com

Your son's college has a vaccination policy so his options are get vaccinated, stand in line for testing, or go to another school. I think that DAI should be an option (with some parameters that I can't define because that' beyond my understanding...this also includes a discussion about these parameters with vaccination).

EDIT: I'm not sure how you confused the college policy with my opinion.

 

[djpbaltimore]

People should volunteer? Good luck with that. In western societies people do lots of things we don't want them too. Illicit drug use? There is ideology and then there is reality.

I am vaccinated against Covid. I also received the flu vaccine every year for over 20 years. But that was annual and optional. Nobody made it mandatory ("fully vaccinated"). Keeping my job was never at risk due to my vaccination status. But now we are asked to get boosters far more frequently than annually. Now to do such mundane activities like entering a club we must show proof of vaccination status to a burly security guard.

Meanwhile in my country I note new cases of omicron are rapidly falling away, repeating the trend seen elsewhere. This didn't happen purely thanks to vaccination. Time to consider this is well on its way to becoming endemic.

That mindset is why the last two years have gone the way that they have.

Other than for work to keep my job, I have not been asked to show my vaccine status once. That is the problem with Nomad's whole argument. Vaccine passports are not a thing in the US, so how infection induced immunity is treated vis a vis vaccination is rather moot.

Define what you mean by endemic? I doubt omicron has infected enough people including the immune naive to prevent another wave. Canada has a similar vaccination rate and they are having a rough winter.

 

[Cookster15]

That mindset is why the last two years have gone the way that they have.

Other than for work to keep my job, I have not been asked to show my vaccine status once. That is the problem with Nomad's whole argument. Vaccine passports are not a thing in the US, so how infection induced immunity is treated vis a vis vaccination is rather moot.

Define what you mean by endemic? I doubt omicron has infected enough people including the immune naive to prevent another wave. Canada has a similar vaccination rate and they are having a rough winter.

My definition of "endemic" is what happened to H1N1 (Spanish flu).

I couldn't quickly find the official government info but this article is what I am seeing here:

When NSW reopens, who's going to be checking the vaccine certificates?

With NSW venues preparing to reopen to the fully vaccinated, here's what we know about how the vaccine certificate system will work.

www.abc.net.au

Maybe the US emphasis on individual freedom is why you don't have this requirement? You see, depending on where you draw the line of what constitutes as "fully" vaccinated can have a major impact on freedom.

In my country at first double vaccinated was "fully" vaccinated. But some politicians and business groups are now demanding fully vaccinated to mean double vaccinated plus the booster. Then what about future boosters?

By the way, our data is still improving. 162 fewer hospitalized today. That is a fall of 1,037 (35%) since January 25!

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in NSW

covidlive.com.au

Daily new cases are also falling quickly. So our immune naivety isn't showing in the data?

 

[Ultrairon]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1490741276513243138

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BioTurboNick/status/1490741276513243138

Avoiding parroting antivax talking points would be a good start. But your reply underscores my point. Public health requires collective actions. The U.S. being so obsessed with individualism does not coexist well with public health. As I've stated, we should not need mandates because people should volunteer to do the morally correct thing. Most polio infections are minor in children, do you think polio vaccines should be mandated?

And now polls have come out showing that getting the flu vaccine has become aligned with who you pull the lever for. What has started as opposition to the covid vax is metastisizing into more generalized vaccination opposition. I expect this is going to get worse.

Lets check back on Gauteng's numbers next week. That bump is not nearly a spike.

 

[Ultrairon]

That mindset is why the last two years have gone the way that they have.

Other than for work to keep my job, I have not been asked to show my vaccine status once. That is the problem with Nomad's whole argument. Vaccine passports are not a thing in the US, so how infection induced immunity is treated vis a vis vaccination is rather moot.

Define what you mean by endemic? I doubt omicron has infected enough people including the immune naive to prevent another wave. Canada has a similar vaccination rate and they are having a rough winter.

I do believe in order to eat at a restaurant in NYC you have to have a vax card.
Some schools were requiring it before and still? You had to show proof. Or at least my daughter had to do it. Then again in the North East all types of mandates are in force. I wish she would have chosen a good school in the south or Utah / Arizona.

Anyway My Job required a copy the vax card and we also had to show proof of booster.

 

[jmdirt]

My definition of "endemic" is what happened to H1N1 (Spanish flu).

I couldn't quickly find the official government info but this article is what I am seeing here:

When NSW reopens, who's going to be checking the vaccine certificates?

With NSW venues preparing to reopen to the fully vaccinated, here's what we know about how the vaccine certificate system will work.

www.abc.net.au

Maybe the US emphasis on individual freedom is why you don't have this requirement? You see, depending on where you draw the line of what constitutes as "fully" vaccinated can have a major impact on freedom.

In my country at first double vaccinated was "fully" vaccinated. But some politicians and business groups are now demanding fully vaccinated to mean double vaccinated plus the booster. Then what about future boosters?

By the way, our data is still improving. 162 fewer hospitalized today. That is a fall of 1,037 (35%) since January 25!

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in NSW

covidlive.com.au

Daily new cases are also falling quickly. So our immune naivety isn't showing in the data?

Sorry for the repeat, but based on what I read from sources who did this for a living long before 2020, a three shot regimen is more standard anyway so I'm OK with that and yearly updates if needed for a while.

H1N1 was most recently called Swine Flu (obviously a much smaller spread than 1918-1921, and SC2 now).

 

[Cookster15]

Sorry for the repeat, but based on what I read from sources who did this for a living long before 2020, a three shot regimen is more standard anyway so I'm OK with that and yearly updates if needed for a while.

H1N1 was most recently called Swine Flu (obviously a much smaller spread than 1918-1921, and SC2 now).

The thing is yearly updates were optional and our jobs and freedom of movement weren't at risk. A booster three months after the 2nd shot is fine but we don't know what the future holds with vaccination - or forced vaccination. Interesting what happens when the next variant replaces omicron.

On H1N1, okay. Most experts predict that COVID-19 will become an endemic disease after its pandemic phase, once enough people have developed immunity to COVID-19 (through vaccination or infection). In other words, COVID-19 is expected to become a recurring disease like the flu. Obviously the key is to minimize human suffering until the virus is truly endemic.

 

[movingtarget]

The thing is yearly updates were optional and our jobs and freedom of movement weren't at risk. A booster three months after the 2nd shot is fine but we don't know what the future holds with vaccination - or forced vaccination. Interesting what happens when the next variant replaces omicron.

On H1N1, okay. Most experts predict that COVID-19 will become an endemic disease after its pandemic phase, once enough people have developed immunity to COVID-19 (through vaccination or infection). In other words, COVID-19 is expected to become a recurring disease like the flu. Obviously the key is to minimize human suffering until the virus is truly endemic.

Covid will always be an epidemic virus — not an endemic one, scientist warns

Covid-19 will never become an endemic illness and will always behave like an epidemic virus, an expert in biosecurity has warned.

www.cnbc.com

 

[jmdirt]

I do believe in order to eat at a restaurant in NYC you have to have a vax card.
Some schools were requiring it before and still? You had to show proof. Or at least my daughter had to do it. Then again in the North East all types of mandates are in force. I wish she would have chosen a good school in the south or Utah / Arizona.

Anyway My Job required a copy the vax card and we also had to show proof of booster.

Utah State, University of Utah, and Arizona State require vaccinations (AFAIK). BYU has some requirements (depending on several factors), and recommendation for all others. Others colleges in those states might as well.

 

[Cookster15]

Covid will always be an epidemic virus — not an endemic one, scientist warns

Covid-19 will never become an endemic illness and will always behave like an epidemic virus, an expert in biosecurity has warned.

www.cnbc.com

Nearly 90% believe it will become endemic.

The coronavirus is here to stay — here’s what that means

A Nature survey shows many scientists expect the virus that causes COVID-19 to become endemic, but it could pose less danger over time.

www.nature.com

 

[Oldermanish]

The thing is yearly updates were optional and our jobs and freedom of movement weren't at risk. A booster three months after the 2nd shot is fine but we don't know what the future holds with vaccination - or forced vaccination. Interesting what happens when the next variant replaces omicron.

On H1N1, okay. Most experts predict that COVID-19 will become an endemic disease after its pandemic phase, once enough people have developed immunity to COVID-19 (through vaccination or infection). In other words, COVID-19 is expected to become a recurring disease like the flu. Obviously the key is to minimize human suffering until the virus is truly endemic.

Just to be clear; is there actually a democracy that is physically forcing vaccinations? I'm not talking about prisons, either.
That actual idea that someone would force an injection into an adult seems unlikely. We've all continually agreed that freedom of movement carries responsibility. After a natural disaster it is not unusual for freedom of movement to be restricted for the health and safety of people. Is it so different or do people who get used to see tornado-bait locations get devastated have a problem with a preventative treatment or protective behavior solely on opinion? Especially when they have friends, relatives seriously sickened or killed by a disease?

I get that people are polarized. I was done recreating outdoors at temperatures below freezing and walked to the parking lot to leave, unmasked. The local mask mandate was removed yesterday as well. Still, I had some evil stares from masked people that were at least 20' away from my path. As some have said a mask can't protect you from no risk and reinforces that mask use has evolved on both sides as an emblem rather than a protective measure. We're a long way from healing on this thing, for sure.

 

[Cookster15]

Just to be clear; is there actually a democracy that is physically forcing vaccinations? I'm not talking about prisons, either.
That actual idea that someone would force an injection into an adult seems unlikely. We've all continually agreed that freedom of movement carries responsibility. After a natural disaster it is not unusual for freedom of movement to be restricted for the health and safety of people. Is it so different or do people who get used to see tornado-bait locations get devastated have a problem with a preventative treatment or protective behavior solely on opinion? Especially when they have friends, relatives seriously sickened or killed by a disease?

I get that people are polarized. I was done recreating outdoors at temperatures below freezing and walked to the parking lot to leave, unmasked. The local mask mandate was removed yesterday as well. Still, I had some evil stares from masked people that were at least 20' away from my path. As some have said a mask can't protect you from no risk and reinforces that mask use has evolved on both sides as an emblem rather than a protective measure. We're a long way from healing on this thing, for sure.

This is the path to totalitarianism - there are limits to what we should accept.

Requiring full vaccination to keep our jobs or simply visit a club or bar is simply going too far. And the definition of "full" vaccination keeps changing. We don't know where this will end yet.

1,080 people died in Australia from influenza in 2019 - many more in 1999. Yet we didn't have vaccination forced upon us. And the requirements I mention are being forced. Keeping your job is forced. Simply entering a club or other business is forced. None of this was the case with the annual flu vaccines (which I received) - they were personal choice. I'll put up with it for a short time but not indefinitely.

 

[jmdirt]

RE: pandemic to endemic (epidemic): As we have discussed, as more people get vaccinated and/or infected that will help us, but so will therapeutics that we have discussed in the last few days (and new ones coming). If the risk of death and healthcare strain/overload gets close to what they were in 2019. If 30,000 (USA) people a year die of SC2 that will probably be 'acceptable' since that is about average for influenza.

Certain parts of the world are going to struggle longer than others and containing that will go a long way to moving away from the pandemic.

*None of those directly meet the scientific definition, but I'm just thinking out loud.

 

[Oldermanish]

This is the path to totalitarianism - there are limits to what we should accept.

Requiring full vaccination to keep our jobs or simply visit a club or bar is simply going too far. And the definition of "full" vaccination keeps changing. We don't know where this will end yet.

1,080 people died in Australia from influenza in 2019 - many more in 1999. Yet we didn't have vaccination forced upon us. And the requirements I mention are being forced. Keeping your job is forced. Simply entering a club or other business is forced. None of this was the case with the annual flu vaccines (which I received) - they were personal choice. I'll put up with it for a short time but not indefinitely.

You're taking a leap on the whole path to anywhere. If anything I would maintain a vigilant level of mistrust toward political and corporate interests that prosper excessively during these situations. I'm a political and social cynic and, like many; tend to turn the other direction on trends that are the next big thing. Practical behavior on health issues is a personal area but the polarizing "facts" people cling to that reinforce their position are usually narrow opinion. Opinions that link to speculative fears. People do stupid things when they're afraid and we should be vigilant towards the people that take advantage of that. There are plenty of villains on both poles taking advantage.

 

[jmdirt]

This is the path to totalitarianism - there are limits to what we should accept.

Requiring full vaccination to keep our jobs or simply visit a club or bar is simply going too far. And the definition of "full" vaccination keeps changing. We don't know where this will end yet.

1,080 people died in Australia from influenza in 2019 - many more in 1999. Yet we didn't have vaccination forced upon us. And the requirements I mention are being forced. Keeping your job is forced. Simply entering a club or other business is forced. None of this was the case with the annual flu vaccines (which I received) - they were personal choice. I'll put up with it for a short time but not indefinitely.

We don't know where it will end yet, but I'll be the optimistic one here and say that it will end with three. I don't know how the yearly will be handled yet.

The definition of fully vaccinated has only changed once so "keeps changing" seems dramatic.

You're only willing to put up with them telling you to get shots, that you're getting anyway, for so long?

 

[jmdirt]

Just to be clear; is there actually a democracy that is physically forcing vaccinations? I'm not talking about prisons, either.
That actual idea that someone would force an injection into an adult seems unlikely. We've all continually agreed that freedom of movement carries responsibility. After a natural disaster it is not unusual for freedom of movement to be restricted for the health and safety of people. Is it so different or do people who get used to see tornado-bait locations get devastated have a problem with a preventative treatment or protective behavior solely on opinion? Especially when they have friends, relatives seriously sickened or killed by a disease?

I get that people are polarized. I was done recreating outdoors at temperatures below freezing and walked to the parking lot to leave, unmasked. The local mask mandate was removed yesterday as well. Still, I had some evil stares from masked people that were at least 20' away from my path. As some have said a mask can't protect you from no risk and reinforces that mask use has evolved on both sides as an emblem rather than a protective measure. We're a long way from healing on this thing, for sure.

I heard that on the radio yesterday and wondered how that will play out in the community.

 

[Ultrairon]

Utah State, University of Utah, and Arizona State require vaccinations (AFAIK). BYU has some requirements (depending on several factors), and recommendation for all others. Others colleges in those states might as well.

NOT FOR LONG.