This is why I'm not looking forward to the TdF.
I've just read an article in which Vinegegaard is boasting that he literally feels like a "different person" (aka stronger). We've got Pog who's Pog and Evenepoel is apparently also going better than last year.
I dunno guys but with all the optimism in the universe I just think this is a bit of a long shot here. Without divine intervention (like the other guys taking the wrong turn at some point, i.e. something that does happen eh) I feel like it's going to be a tough TdF.
Rog is going to have to be dialled in from minute one, basically, with a monster second week necessary - even just for survival. Any performance like his recent climbing in the Giro (even stage 7 won by Ayuso which happened before Rog's crash on the gravel) will spell game over for Rog's podium chances. And he had a performance like that in last year's Tour (San Luca) which put him in difficulty in GC on stage 2 already.
The thing about Rog that often confounds fans and critics alike is he's totally capable on his day of matching the best and he's also super consistent throughout the season. So yes, on his day I can totally see him dropping Evenepoel. But his baseline for a regular mountain performance in the Tour de France is going to be tested in July, i.e. where on days he doesn't feel super-duper he's going to have to still be in the mix. And no, his 'bad days' aren't always injury or crash related either. Sometimes he just does an ITT or a climb where he blows for whatever reason.
And lord knows it pains me to be a bit of a downer here because I'd love for nothing more than a triumph in Paris. But it's a difficult scenario to imagine.
Pretty much agree with all this. It was the same with Contador in later years. He couldn't stay on his bike, couldn't avoid the random off day (like that first mountain stage in his final Vuelta where he dropped a couple minutes despite being arguably the best climber in the race after that), didn't command the same respect in the peloton, couldn't stay focused, and, on top of that (and not unrelated to all that), he couldn't avoid ill fortune. That's where Roglic is now. I think he
could win the Tour against Pogacar and Vingegaard in the absence of falls but only if they massively screw up tactically watching each other like Del Toro and Carapaz. I see no way they make their usual attacks from far out on pretty much every stage where you can attack and Roglic wins.
With his Giro form, Jorgenson and Almeida would be a problem next month. In fact Jorgenson was a problem in the Dauphiné last year. Sure Rog had crashed in that race but that's like constantly staring down the barrel of a gun anyway, i.e. we know that even the smallest slip or tumble on the road can have dire consequences a few days later. So it's like 1 crash and GC is done. That's what it feels like going into the TdF 2025.
(1) He basically needs his Vuelta 2024 form here (where he didn't crash at all over the 3 weeks). That's literally a prerequisite. He was much better in Spain than he was in the Tour last year but even then he had a bit of a weaker day when he got dropped by Mas on Hazallanas (stage 9 I think). He also had a not-so-great climb up Cuitu Negru as well.
That's what I'm getting at here. Because like I said on his day when everything is working, then yeah he can do one of those super performances that very few riders can. A fantastic performance. But the consistency has often been missing (& how to maximise good days versus bad days) and in France there's just a whole load of other stuff that's ruined his Tours as well.
(2) I think Rog's fans just have to embrace the whole underdog role and go with it because that's the truth.
(1) Yes agreed. And that's to beat Remco, IMO, not to compete with Pogacar and Vingegaard. To do that, he needs to level up again, which doesn't seem likely based on what we've seen this year.
(2) I think there's exactly one Roglic fan who doesn't view Rog as an underdog...
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