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Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

Page 365 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.

Ultrairon

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Spoken like a true vaccine extremist who's against natural immunity. Lol. Frankly, I have no idea what the heck you're talking about other than making your ad nuseam points against natural immunity once again. All you have done is troll me on the issue of natural immunity like you're threatened by it. And I'm surprised that you're not informed about how memory T cells work from previous infections. Don't you recall all those links I posted on the benefits of T cells from prior infections? For example this study on T cell responses remain significantly strong against variants:


And this is a good one:


"A recent CDC report that [COLOR=var(--sc)]looked[/COLOR] at COVID-19 cases in California and New York — the two states with arguably the strictest coronavirus clamp-downs on freedoms — concluded that “surviving COVID-19 provides excellent natural immunity not only [against] repeat infection but also to hospitalization and death for the delta variant,” The Hill [COLOR=var(--sc)]wrote[/COLOR]."

"Welcome to the world of sanity, CDC."

"That’s after weeks, months, years even of headlines like this: “Vaccines beat natural immunity in fight against COVID-19,” as Johns Hopkins University Hub wrote in September 2021."

"Or this: “Why COVID-19 Vaccines Offer Better Protection Than Infection,” as Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health wrote in May 2021.
"

"Seems the scientific community is coming ‘round to — wait, what’s this? — what the scientific community itself recognized as truth for oh, so many decades. Finally. About time. About freaking time."

"Now that the scientific community is finally awakening to the idea that, hey now, perhaps thousands of individuals were vaccinated who didn’t have to be vaccinated — ain’t tax money great! — and that ho, now, perhaps thousands of people were fired who didn’t have to be fired — and all the Anthony Fauci types go, ‘Oops! My bad!’ — the next piece of the puzzle deals with the return to normalcy."


My son & I both had the original strain exactly 2 years ago to the week where we experienced moderate symptoms & were both pretty ill but neither one of us required any medical intervention. Fast forward 19 months to last Sept when we both got overlapping cases of Delta. He picked it up a packed indoor concert where he wasn't wearing a mask and obviously infected me. The adaptive immune system kicked in with the benefit of the memory T cells. I experienced mild symptoms that were nothing compared to what I experienced with the original. And neither one of us has had Omicron yet - though the other day doing a weight workout I had a few sneezes & a cough or two - so maybe that was a bout of Omicron? Lol.

The difference between you and I is that I have natural immunity and you have vaccine immunity and for some effin reason you just don't like it constantly trolling me. You'd think you be content with your triple vaxx booster protection and feel good about yourself and get on with your life and quit trying to pick a fight with me over natural immunity. And another difference between us is I don't tell people not to take the vaccines but you feel compelled to tell people to take it showing absolutely no respect for informed consent. What an imperious attitude you have telling people to take the vaccine - is this your Lib mindset? Who would have thought - since its Liberal leadership and not the conservatives who have implemented these mandates. And since we're on opposite sides of the political spectrum, the vaccine issue not withstanding, we'd adversaries anyway.
It is almost as if dare I say some do not trust the triple vax? Before it was disposable and cloth masks then double up now get that n95 made in ? No regard for asking anyone the question who are we protecting. I sure hope they don't go back to that other thread and trash talk you or Me. SMH they say report it and I did and then suddenly their post were removed and a warning.

We disagree on the vax I respect your opinion while I disagree with it. Keep being fit!
 
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No idea what you want me to reply. Can you ask again?
Glad you brought up the fraud Fauci he is useless. Tv dr.

This is from the CDC.

2020-2022 All Sexes All Ages 880,487 from covid. Deaths from all Causes 6,988,650
898,216 as of Friday Feb. 4 in the graph

898, 216 right at the top of the page

898, 216+3,295=901,511 boxes at the top
 
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It is almost as if dare I say some do not trust the triple vax? Before it was disposable and cloth masks then double up now get that n95 made in ? No regard for asking anyone the question who are we protecting. I sure hope they don't go back to that other thread and trash talk you or Me. SMH they say report it and I did and then suddenly their post were removed and a warning.

We disagree on the vax I respect your opinion while I disagree with it. Keep being fit!
You and nomad offended two of the nicest people on the entire forum (who no longer post here now) so we were discussing that in plain sight (you could have joined us to set the record straight). More of your dishonest twisties , our posts were removed Thursday before I said "report me" today. SMH indeed.
 
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Ultrairon

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898,216 as of Friday Feb. 4 in the graph

898, 216 right at the top of the page

898, 216+3,295=901,511 boxes at the top
The numbers I point out are the confirmed numbers. The graph below that box you point out are the confirmed numbers. Those numbers will change + and - .

None of those are 100% confirmed and we should wait until you proclaim the number right?
 
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You and nomad offended two of the nicest people on the entire forum (who no longer post here now) so we were discussing that in plain sight (you could have joined us to set the record straight). More of your dishonest twisties , our posts were removed Thursday before I said "report me" today. SMH indeed.
i don't know who the other one is but i'm still here :)
 
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Hey iron, I gave a thumbs up to both Cookster and dj not because I'm cheering either way, but because I like that Aus health care didn't get pounded, but I also agree that people frequently make claims about other posters and then go quiet (not accusing Cookster specifically). I just wanted to help you understand so that you wouldn't still be confused.

Shouldn't you stay focused on the media talking about 900,000 dead USAers? 2,300 more dying per day? Stupid media! :rolleyes:

Laughing face here:
When I find the quote I will share. In meantime I appreciate your attempts to see all points of view.
[

The only reason the hospital system has not been overrun and that is arguable according to the people that work in them is because the uninfected medical staff are working much longer hours and also being propped up by retired doctors and nurses who have returned to the workfoce and also possibly with some support from student doctors. If it's not overrun its certainly far from normal and aged care is currently running at an average of 75% of its workfoce due to staff infections. Some people have asked for aged care to be supported from the army but they are also using retired staff to prop up the system. Even if the numbers are dropping in ICU and the actual amount of infections,to say that the the system in both sectors is not under major stress is naive If you listen to medical staff who work in the system instead of politicians who have an election to reckon with in four months time.

Aged care has worried some families so much that they have removed their relatives into their own care at least in the short term. Doctors are also warning about the next flu season in four months time. and tourists are about to be allowed into the country soon. Nothing wrong with being optimistic but lets not wander too far far from what is really happening. Australia has also been recruiting medical staff from overseas to help out where its been possible to do so.It's basically been a war for the medical system for months, Sydney hospitals were sending Covid patients to my local hospital months ago because they were at capacity and I live 80 kms from Sydney. Omicron has been a disaster for staffing levels and the ambulance service has also been under major stress with some people waiting an hour or more for an ambulance and the public has sometimes been transporting patients in private vehicles instead.

A case is a case. How hard health workers are working once patients are admitted to hospital does not prevent people being admitted to hospital in the first place. This downwards trend in hospitalizations is being confirmed elsewhere, not just Australia. I simply posted irrefutable data for NSW that shows the situation is improving? That isn't simply thanks to health workers' sacrifices. Here is another update which confirms the positive trend.

Nobody is denying health care workers are under stress. But the negativity is unhelpful.


Today (Feb 7)
Hospitalized 2,099 (peak 2943)
ICU 137 (242)
Ventilated 60 (123)

Please tell us how these are not massive improvements and exactly what Dr Nick Coatsworth suggested recently that I posted here?

It looks to me like there is significant cause for optimism compared to the peaks for hospitalizations, ICUs and ventilated patients.
 
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respectfully,this makes absolutely zero, no, nada sense. We learned..sorry..we know the following:
Way to many people don't have health care
Way way too many don't have access to care..w or wo a pandemic our entire medical infrastructure is under staffed and lacks in every type of delivery system.
The pandemic, thank God has only killed @900,000 people when we got caught w our collective pants down.
There is no health care professional anywhere in the United States that is breathing easy,saying no problem bring on the next variants..or natural disaster,or completely different pandemic occurring in parallel..
And testing and tracing? Succeeded? By nobody's measure..

There is a famous,infamous bike racer that has a podcast w sponsors that include tequila and a bio measurement ring. The wearable technology currently available could be a game changer as far as a forewarning in individual health diagnostics and community health are disease spread and hopefully containment.
2 years in do we know if a person getting in a plane,bus or train is infected? Infectious? No..
Can hospitals instantly access the health status of people walking through their doors? No..
some signs of progress,most certainly..but signs..a sign that things are under control nationally,internationally? Not one..not even a hint of worldwide anything other than complete chaos.
..and just a start is African nations trying to get access to proprietary vaccine data to speed in manufacturing of vaccine..no company or country w the technical know how is playing ball.. Africa will have self produced vaccines going to clinical trials in July or August of this year..
so is everyone at your local bar and grill,laundromat or hardware store..doing great..community spread down to nothing? Are local doctors able to get back to sports physicals? Probably..does that mean the coast is clear? No
I think any guess about how people are feeling optimistic is just that a guess because the data says a completely different thing. Show me a disaster preparedness expert that says we are ready for anything..including zombie apocalypse
And please always keep in mind, the American population..they are in poor health, are under or uninsured..and all forecasts are saying that watching American health and age statistics should scare the living **ck out of everyone....
seeing how few hospitals,nurses,doctors,in home care givers that are not being cultivated..it's 911..if we even have a half of a pandemic in the next 10 years yikes..half the country doesn't believe that the sky is blue..again feel lucky that we got crushed by Covid and not a Ebola hybrid..
I am sure someone thought that the band on the Titanic was awesome,or comfy deck chairs. We need to roll up our sleeves and get to work..

Rather than spend my valuable time picking apart your very long and poorly punctuated post I will simply repost this data.


Getting better or not - the data and trend is very clear? Nobody denies health workers have suffered but there is very significant cause for optimism that the plight of health workers will improve drastically if not already.
 
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When did I say that? Let's be clear on what I wrote.



As for infection vs vaccine. An infection might provide better immunity than a single dose of vaccine. But the antibody titers are clear that 2 doses are better than 1 infection. Read about affinity maturation due to multiple antigen exposures and it is likely that 2 doses gives better antibodies than a single infection. And boosting is even better. Look at the graphs below and realize that a lot of the unvaccinated were infected previously.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BrianRWasik/status/1489664087139266562

Here is a quote from yourself:

Considering how few infections you had I imagine that the number of immune naive is not far from 100%-vax rate

I think there were one or two others but this makes my point.

So you did suggest Australia was vulnerable because we didn't have much natural immunity.
 
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We have to remember that yes the COVID wards are incredibly busy in some countries but at the other end, some parts of hospitals are quiet because of COVID - Swings and roundabouts - One should not worry about bringing in tourists unless you are running a zero COVID policy.
A lot of countries have had to put elective surgery on hold and delay chronic condition treatments also sending patients home earlier than usual after treatments. Hardly ideal. As for tourists I think that decision has pretty much been made now with the failure to keep out Omicron. Tactics that worked before had to be changed. Damage control replaced quick wins.
 
Here is a quote from yourself:



I think there were one or two others but this makes my point.

So you did suggest Australia was vulnerable because we didn't have much natural immunity.
Yes. And that was accurate. Looking at your stats, the number of people who died from covid19 has doubled since we had that discussion. As many deaths in 1 month as you had in nearly 2 years. And nowhere do I make any prediction about overwhelmed hospitals. But you were ripe for a big outbreak. And you got one. Because you did vaccinate well as a country, you did fare better than Maryland. Heading toward your winter, I wonder how many immune naive you still have. That is the most important number in terms of predicted mortality to omicron which to the immune naive is as severe as OG SC2. I have been saying this for a year, but everyone who is not vaccinated will eventually get infected.
 
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A lot of countries have had to put elective surgery on hold and delay chronic condition treatments also sending patients home earlier than usual after treatments. Hardly ideal. As for tourists I think that decision has pretty much been made now with the failure to keep out Omicron. Tactics that worked before had to be changed. Damage control replaced quick wins.

When you delay elective surgery that means one cohort of hospital workers are less busy than normal - The bigger issue is medical staff being furloughed because they are close contacts - You have to expect that at times, hospitals would be busier during a pandemic - Omicron has made vaccine mandates unworkable and unnecessary, yet Government's don't seem to understand - This is a big failure by Governments.
 
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Yes. And that was accurate. Looking at your stats, the number of people who died from covid19 has doubled since we had that discussion. As many deaths in 1 month as you had in nearly 2 years. And nowhere do I make any prediction about overwhelmed hospitals. But you were ripe for a big outbreak. And you got one. Because you did vaccinate well as a country, you did fare better than Maryland. Heading toward your winter, I wonder how many immune naive you still have. That is the most important number in terms of predicted mortality to omicron which to the immune naive is as severe as OG SC2. I have been saying this for a year, but everyone who is not vaccinated will eventually get infected.
  1. Except I have posted data that proves omicron is rapidly fading in our hospitals and ICUs. So much for this wave of immune naive.
  2. I have told you before winter is no big deal here it hasn’t caused any spikes so far. If there was nobody was pointing to the weather - we don’t have to huddle indoors. Plus the spikes in cases were overwhelmingly vaccinated people. Clearly vaccination is keeping us out of hospital. - but not stopping us getting infected. Plus I notice infections are already waning - a trend confirmed elsewhere with omicron.
 
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  1. Except I have posted data that proves omicron is rapidly fading in our hospitals and ICUs. So much for this wave of immune naive.
  2. I have told you before winter is no big deal here it hasn’t caused any spikes so far. If there was nobody was pointing to the weather - we don’t have to huddle indoors. Plus the spikes in cases were overwhelmingly vaccinated people. Clearly vaccination is keeping us out of hospital. - but not stopping us getting infected. Plus I notice infections are already waning - a trend confirmed elsewhere with omicron.
Winter may be a lot milder in Australia but it also means that many people generally do spend more time indoors in winter than other seasons and of course winter in the southern states is much different to winter in the northern states. This will be the first winter with Omicron but because of the timing, NSW and Victoria might get lucky, with infections already dropping and a still a few months till winter. The last bad flu outbreak on a world scale was quite a while ago now and of course no one knows how so called Flurona will go if Corona is still still circulating. That's something that some of the epidemiologists are concerned about in the long term and with vaccines needing to be continually boosted if the variants keep hanging around, depending on the severity of the new variants.Australian aged care is now being helped out by the army as well.
 
There will always be a sub-set of the population, whether it's age related or co-morbidities who will be more suspectible to COVID - You could give them 28 booster shots, however, some will still be vulnerable - Check your data and you'll find around 25% of aged care residents in Australia die within 12 months of entering aged care - These are very fragile people.
 
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It's not a good feeling to talk so regionally..makes me duper over the top worried for the US. There were centuries old traditions, like hurricane,tornado sirens,volunteer fire department bells going off and as an American tradition,people responded accordingly. In just a few short years those warning signs are more frequently ignored as possible false alarms.
We all saw toilet paper,food, gasoline, basic services fall short,sometimes completely unavailable during the pandemic..and now a new national catch phrase, supply chain issues or disruption is part of everyday conversation from Costco to Walmart.
We saw gas cut off completely when cyber terrorists turned it off,demanding ransom,weeks to correct it and for how long?
100's of hospitals and clinics had ransomwear infected computers have them shut down..
I hope all Americans know that the new way of thinking is ultra dangerous
on many many levels,but the scariest to me is seeing what Covid revealed without dozens of bad actors,terrorists seeing,seizing the opportunity that the pandemic has caused,caused chaos..
Sure toilet paper is not the end all,and after a few months we got PPE and other supplies to our hospitals,but what if these types of shortages happen on a grand scale,intentionally?
Decades, near 100 years in some cases, Americans during times of crisis,war..always rallied around vaccines and the common good, but there is a new reality.
The mental health aspect of Covid has effected 10's of millions of Americans and is in a state of emergency..from routine interacting with grocery store employees,restaurant staff,retail, Starbucks,..you name it,Covid has dramatically changed the way people act..the numbers are staggering..and cars,planes , trains and buses have people acting out criminally while screaming out something about Covid..PTSD has inflicted harm on millions in the population. Watch a few airplane videos or people attempting to get food and if you are not embarrassed and scared,cool..that proves the point,but it's a matter of time before crazy Covid behavior ends up in mass tragedy.
everywhere you look Covid has crushed or crumbled things that were in place for centuries..profound sadness for those who recognise it and for those who don't.
Covid looks pretty random w timing of the troubles,but for American enemies, Covid revealing the vulnerability of everything American..I by everything,I mean everything..from getting a cup of coffee,getting gas,military, elections, you name it,the US is laid bare..
So if I had to assess which is worse,900,000 dead and the suffering of themselves and their families or the collective damage and PTSD of the United States I have no fast answer.
 
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Winter may be a lot milder in Australia but it also means that many people generally do spend more time indoors in winter than other seasons and of course winter in the southern states is much different to winter in the northern states. This will be the first winter with Omicron but because of the timing, NSW and Victoria might get lucky, with infections already dropping and a still a few months till winter. The last bad flu outbreak on a world scale was quite a while ago now and of course no one knows how so called Flurona will go if Corona is still still circulating. That's something that some of the epidemiologists are concerned about in the long term and with vaccines needing to be continually boosted if the variants keep hanging around, depending on the severity of the new variants.Australian aged care is now being helped out by the army as well.

Yes it will be Australia's first winter with omicron and yes infections are dropping.

Influenza was killing an average of 3,000 Australians per year pre Covid. With omicron / vaccination the likelihood of dying from covid which was initially ten times that of the flu must now be approaching that of a typical flu season? Currently the 7 day moving average shows 0.2% of new cases in Australia die. But we know hospitalizations are falling quite rapidly.

If the definition of fully vaccinated is updated to include boosters you watch community resistance rise. One booster, sure, but multiple boosters? Good luck with that. Entering a club has become quite absurd. Eventually the breaking point of ordinary people is met, if ordinary people get labelled as "extremists" then we have a problem.
 
It faded in South Africa too and is starting to re-emerge.

You had severe travel restrictions and NPIs before. If you have seasonal flu, you will have seasonal effects with SC2.

Just checked South Africa on world-o-meter, I am not seeing it starting to re-emerge - 7 day moving average is still falling and way below the peak on Dec 18?

South Africa COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

Hospitalizations (in NSW Australia) have now fallen by 29% since the peak on Jan 25 - more good news for health workers here. This didn't occur due to the weather. In fact we are experiencing the coolest and wettest summer for quite some time in South East Australia. Maybe movingtarget is right we could be lucky that omicron or subsequent variants have faded before the cooler months start. But I remain optimistic.

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live
 
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When you delay elective surgery that means one cohort of hospital workers are less busy than normal - The bigger issue is medical staff being furloughed because they are close contacts - You have to expect that at times, hospitals would be busier during a pandemic - Omicron has made vaccine mandates unworkable and unnecessary, yet Government's don't seem to understand - This is a big failure by Governments.
I don't know if this is the situation with all hospitals or all cases, but my sister in-laws friend had her ICD replacement delayed during the first round of emergency care standards not because of the surgery itself (the cardiologist was scheduled and available), but if something went wrong there was no ICU bed available. They ended up doing it three weeks later because the cardiologist petitioned the hospital decision based on the 1:1,000,000 chance of something going wrong.

EDIT: If you'll remember I also talked about a colleague's mother who had her cancer surgery postponed during that same first round of emergency care standards.
 
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Ultrairon

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It faded in South Africa too and is starting to re-emerge.

You had severe travel restrictions and NPIs before. If you have seasonal flu, you will have seasonal effects with SC2.
On what scale? Do you have a data source for that claim?
Looks from this data source that its not going back up.


 
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View: https://mobile.twitter.com/BioTurboNick/status/1490741276513243138

So my opinion is because I have had covid and I have had 3 shots. I have the attitude because I have done what I will do and now I will live my life.
Funny you mention indifference. I have the vax so who is my indifference effecting? The unvaxed? Ok I would say most likely but surely not the vaxed? You said that the vax stops transmission or the vax stops omnicron. You actually called me out for saying it did not. So what do you want me to do?
Avoiding parroting antivax talking points would be a good start. But your reply underscores my point. Public health requires collective actions. The U.S. being so obsessed with individualism does not coexist well with public health. As I've stated, we should not need mandates because people should volunteer to do the morally correct thing. Most polio infections are minor in children, do you think polio vaccines should be mandated?
Well technically if you won't get vaccinated, for whatever reason, you are anti-vax. There are the reasons that you listed, and people who literally can't take certain vaccines. But at this point if you haven't gotten vaccinated in the USA, you are anti-vax.

EDIT: If you won't eat meat, you are a vegetarian, right?
And now polls have come out showing that getting the flu vaccine has become aligned with who you pull the lever for. What has started as opposition to the covid vax is metastisizing into more generalized vaccination opposition. I expect this is going to get worse.
 

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