Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Ultrairon]

120k cases today. See why focusing on weekend numbers is misleading?

Yes, the difference is not significant. That is my point. There have been 20k cases a day for a month. The numbers aren't falling like before. They have hit a plateau. So R= 1. It won't take much to cause another wave of cases with flu season approaching for your hemisphere.

If you compare this last weekend to the previous weekends the decrease is noticeable.
Who was it that posted a link that was alarmist with respect to this year the flu and covid was going to be worst case scenario. That never materialized and was over hyped media.

Take for example this one county in texas R(t) numbers.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Updates - Texas Medical Center

Thanks to your hard work, dedication, and sacrifices, we were able to collect and analyze critical data to track the virus’s impact on the greater Houston community. Your unwavering commitment to keeping our communities safe and healthy has truly made a difference in the fight against COVID-19...

www.tmc.edu

 

[jmdirt]

I think you know I can read a graph.

But the difference between Feb 2 and Feb 27 is statistically insignificant looking at the full dataset. Curious that you accuse me of cherry picking. You are cherry picking metrics and time scales.

With respect, nobody in NSW Australia would prefer to be in Maryland USA. And we don't even need to wear masks shopping now (I do as a precaution). Hospitalizations and ICUs continue to trend downwards despite your attempts to catastrophize and patronize.

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

Hospitalizations are now down 63% since Jan 25.
Ventilated patients down 85% since Sep 18 (delta)
ICU patients down 93% since Sep 21.

Good news based upon irrefutable data !

That is a plateau.

Its good that your health care numbers are coming down. IMO, it makes for better comparison if you use a common date for reference (you use Jan 25, Sept 18 & 21).

 

[Cookster15]

Yes, the difference is not significant. That is my point. There have been 20k cases a day for a month. The numbers aren't falling like before. They have hit a plateau. So R= 1. It won't take much to cause another wave of cases with flu season approaching for your hemisphere.

Yes, the difference is not significant - but it is 10k/day not 20k/day. And any R at or below 1 is nothing to be concerned about now. But the key metric is hospitalizations, not cases. Hospitalizations continue to fall, along with ICU patients. I have posted that link quite a few times now, I just rechecked now and it is still steadily falling despite 10k / day in new cases. Locally nobody is talking about cases any more.

We have also not seen any spike in cases over winter since this began - two winters. Having said this, I do expect a big rebound in flu cases as flu (and colds) were at record lows during the pandemic due to masks and other restrictions. I posted an anecdote here a while back mentioning that my local medical center rather than usually busy was virtually empty during the pandemic.

 

[Cookster15]

That is a plateau.

Its good that your health care numbers are coming down. IMO, it makes for better comparison if you use a common date for reference (you use Jan 25, Sept 18 & 21).

Here are those numbers again. Yes, still coming down. Locally I notice stories in the news media about overworked hospital staff have disappeared.

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

 

[jmdirt]

Yes, the difference is not significant - but it is 10k/day not 20k/day. And any R at or below 1 is nothing to be concerned about now. But the key metric is hospitalizations, not cases. Hospitalizations continue to fall, along with ICU patients. I have posted that link quite a few times now, I just rechecked now and it is still steadily falling despite 10k / day in new cases. Locally nobody is talking about cases any more.

We have also not seen any spike in cases over winter since this began - two winters. Having said this, I do expect a big rebound in flu cases as flu (and colds) were at record lows during the pandemic due to masks and other restrictions. I posted an anecdote here a while back mentioning that my local medical center rather than usually busy was virtually empty during the pandemic.

Mask mandates are falling like crazy in Idaho so I'm wondering if we will see an increase in cold and flu cases?

 

[Koronin]

Mask mandates are falling like crazy in Idaho so I'm wondering if we will see an increase in cold and flu cases?

Colds likely. Other than possibly Raleigh/Durham area I think the mask mandates in NC are gone. Haven't paid much attention but the statewide one have been gone for awhile. The larger cities (with or without mandates) have a lot more people wearing masks than smaller cities.

 

[movingtarget]

Scientists seek to solve mystery of why some people do not catch Covid

Experts hope research can lead to development of drugs that stop people catching Covid or passing it on

www.theguardian.com

 

[Ultrairon]

120k cases today. See why focusing on weekend numbers is misleading?

Yes, the difference is not significant. That is my point. There have been 20k cases a day for a month. The numbers aren't falling like before. They have hit a plateau. So R= 1. It won't take much to cause another wave of cases with flu season approaching for your hemisphere.

Oh no its still going down. Focusing on a one day total is misleading.

CDT Redirect Page

 

[djpbaltimore]

If you compare this last weekend to the previous weekends the decrease is noticeable.
Who was it that posted a link that was alarmist with respect to this year the flu and covid was going to be worst case scenario. That never materialized and was over hyped media.

Take for example this one county in texas R(t) numbers.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Updates - Texas Medical Center

Thanks to your hard work, dedication, and sacrifices, we were able to collect and analyze critical data to track the virus’s impact on the greater Houston community. Your unwavering commitment to keeping our communities safe and healthy has truly made a difference in the fight against COVID-19...

www.tmc.edu

I don't know what you are referring to. We have never turned off flu for a season like we did in 2020-1, so nobody really was sure how it would bounce back. And people were worried because one of the vax strains was a mismatch. It wasn't media driven alarmism.

Mask mandates are falling like crazy in Idaho so I'm wondering if we will see an increase in cold and flu cases?

Mask mandates ending for Baltimore. I think flu is mostly done for this season, but these could lead to a covid surge. But the weather is starting to help. My work is now allowing surgical masks instead of kn95 mandates which is a positive.

Oh no its still going down. Focusing on a one day total is misleading.

CDT Redirect Page

Yes, you quoting 10k cases a day when the 7 day average is 5x higher is very misleading. I'm glad that you understand that now.

 

[Ultrairon]

Great news.

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Thumbs up!

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Thumbs up again!

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[Ultrairon]

Falling trends.

South Africa - COVID-19 Overview - Johns Hopkins

South Africa - COVID New Cases, Deaths, Testing Data - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

coronavirus.jhu.edu

An interactive visualization of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC

An interactive, data-forward visualization of COVID-19 data by Prof. Wade at The University of Illinois. Updated daily.

91-divoc.com

 

[Ultrairon]

Lets get a thumbs up am I right?

South Africa: the latest coronavirus counts, charts and maps

Tracking the COVID-19 outbreak, updated daily

graphics.reuters.com

 

[djpbaltimore]

Somebody is going to have to explain to me what people in Hong Kong were thinking. The whole point of zero covid was to give time to vax the population... and they just didnt.

Really shows how deadly omicron is in a naive population if it wasn't clear from the thousands of daily deaths in the US.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499330139057971200

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1499330139057971200

 

[yaco]

Somebody is going to have to explain to me what people in Hong Kong were thinking. The whole point of zero covid was to give time to vax the population... and they just didnt.

Really shows how deadly omicron is in a naive population if it wasn't clear from the thousands of daily deaths in the US.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499330139057971200

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/PaulMainwood/status/1499330139057971200

It's fairly simple - Older people those in the 70+ group chose not to be vaccinated - There are a myriad of reasons such as the conservative nature of GP's in HK, the belief in non-traditional medicines while some of the older, fragile groups may not benefit from a vaccine - I'll also add that VAXX mandates are an irrelevancy for this group of people as they are not working, barely visit restaurants and the like or jump on a plane - Vaxx rates for the other age groups have been more than acceptable - The bigger question moving forward is what is the next step chosen by the authorities - Compulsory Community Testing along with a short lockdown is unnecessary and a waste of resources - The HK Govt has dropped the ball with their handling of COVID since Mid 2021 - The genie is now out of the bottle.

 

[Koronin]

It seems the NFL has ended their Covid 19 restrictions (at least for now).

NFL, NFLPA agree to end COVID-19 protocols immediately

After almost two full years, the NFL is finally back to normal.

www.bostonherald.com

 

[jmdirt]

It seems the NFL has ended their Covid 19 restrictions (at least for now).

NFL, NFLPA agree to end COVID-19 protocols immediately

After almost two full years, the NFL is finally back to normal.

www.bostonherald.com

This is mostly symbolic since there are no games or practices.

 

[jmdirt]

Mask mandates are falling like crazy in Idaho so I'm wondering if we will see an increase in cold and flu cases?

The City of Boise just dropped the mask mandate which should see the rest of them go too because many places had mask mandates to comply.

The powers that be at my work have been quiet since they sent us the opinion poll about masks. We might hear something today since the city dropped theirs.

 

[Koronin]

This is mostly symbolic since there are no games or practices.

The Combine is currently taking place and the draft is next month. Mini camps depending on teams start in May.

This does effect the Combine and the draft.

 

[djpbaltimore]

It's fairly simple - Older people those in the 70+ group chose not to be vaccinated - There are a myriad of reasons such as the conservative nature of GP's in HK, the belief in non-traditional medicines while some of the older, fragile groups may not benefit from a vaccine - I'll also add that VAXX mandates are an irrelevancy for this group of people as they are not working, barely visit restaurants and the like or jump on a plane - Vaxx rates for the other age groups have been more than acceptable - The bigger question moving forward is what is the next step chosen by the authorities - Compulsory Community Testing along with a short lockdown is unnecessary and a waste of resources - The HK Govt has dropped the ball with their handling of COVID since Mid 2021 - The genie is now out of the bottle.

Vaccines don't work as well in the elderly, but it has 0% efficacy in people that don't take it. There probably is some thought by individuals that a vaccine isn't needed if the country uses zerocovid policies. Some here use that argument with measles. Why vaccinate if the disease is barely present? It is not a good argument, but public health authorities and the govt needed to get that point out. They had one job and now old people are parked in gurneys outside waiting for treatment. Nyt had a story about the whole debacle, but it gets pretty political, so I won't post the link.

 

[yaco]

Vaccines don't work as well in the elderly, but it has 0% efficacy in people that don't take it. There probably is some thought by individuals that a vaccine isn't needed if the country uses zerocovid policies. Some here use that argument with measles. Why vaccinate if the disease is barely present? It is not a good argument, but public health authorities and the govt needed to get that point out. They had one job and now old people are parked in gurneys outside waiting for treatment. Nyt had a story about the whole debacle, but it gets pretty political, so I won't post the link.

My guess is that as 25% of residents die within 12 months of entering a nursing home, combined with the conservatism of the medical profession in HK, along with care plans is a contributing factor for the low take up rate for the over 70's - Zero Covid policy bears no relationship with the lack of vaccine take up for the over 70's as they are the outlier, not just in HK, but throughout the whole world - Vaccine rates for the other groups in HK would be on the low side if everyone believed in the Zero Covid policy, which plainly is not the case - All the other groups are around 90% VAXX rates - There is not much more authorities could do with the over 70's - Possibly they could sell a more positive or different message to this elderly cohort, especially through the medical profession - Things like vaccines or mandates have no effect on this group of people - Mainland China has a similar problem with this group, although not to the same extent as HK.

 

[Ultrairon]

No Mandates in public schools where I am at. Companies only have the "if sick do not come to work" rules in place.
All previous covid protocols have been suspended.
Great News.

 

[jmdirt]

The Combine is currently taking place and the draft is next month. Mini camps depending on teams start in May.

This does effect the Combine and the draft.

The combine has pretty relaxed protocols anyway (vax for support people, a negative test upon entry), and May is too far away to be part of this discussion/decision.

* There is a combine bubble, but the kids are allowed to leave during their free time so that's really not a bubble.

 

[Koronin]

The combine has pretty relaxed protocols anyway (vax for support people, a negative test upon entry), and May is too far away to be part of this discussion/decision.

* There is a combine bubble, but the kids are allowed to leave during their free time so that's really not a bubble.

It had the same rules the teams had.

 

[jmdirt]

It had the same rules the teams had.

It didn't because about half of the agents/athletes refused to attend the skills part so the NFL relaxed things.

This isn't the article I read last week, but it says basically the same thing (I can't find the one I read).

Home

Home Page

www.nbcsports.com

Masks recommended, vax recommended, tests available, bubble that they can leave...not very strict.

 

[Koronin]

It didn't because about half of the agents/athletes refused to attend the skills part so the NFL relaxed things.

This isn't the article I read last week, but it says basically the same thing (I can't find the one I read).

Home

Home Page

www.nbcsports.com

Masks recommended, vax recommended, tests available, bubble that they can leave...not very strict.

That is for THIS YEAR in which the change for the entire NFL came out on the SAME DAY the Combine started. Last year the Combine DID have the EXACT same rules as the teams had.