CQ ranking

[Dutchsmurf]

No unfortunately I didn't.. I'm not very good at Excel so I couldn't get the "countif" function to work.

I found a way, but it might crash Excel when used
Trying it now to see what happens. Meanwhile trying to think of a less intensive way of doing it (read: more elegant). I do have a plan B in case this doesn't work. So no need to count manually yet.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I found a way, but it might crash Excel when used
Trying it now to see what happens. Meanwhile trying to think of a less intensive way of doing it (read: more elegant). I do have a plan B in case this doesn't work. So no need to count manually yet.

Sounds great - I guess it would take a lot of time counting manually anyway

 

[ingsve]

HAUSSLER Heinrich 72
PELLIZOTTI Franco 63
VANDE VELDE Christian 49
GERRANS Simon 42
RICCO Riccardo 42
SOLER HERNANDEZ Juan Mauricio 42
PHINNEY Taylor 40
DUARTE AREVALO Fabio Andres 38
BOONEN Tom 36
BOS Theo 35
COBO ACEBO Juan Jose 35
SICARD Romain 33
KASHECHKIN Andrey 31
FEILLU Brice 30
ANTON HERNANDEZ Igor 29
DEGENKOLB John 28
DEIGNAN Philip 28
CUNEGO Damiano 25
LÖFKVIST Thomas 25
NUYENS Nick 25
MATTHEWS Michael 24
RUJANO GUILLEN Jose Humberto 24
STYBAR Zdenek 24
RENSHAW Mark 23
DI LUCA Danilo 22
DOWSETT Alex 22
SEELDRAEYERS Kevin 22
URAN URAN Rigoberto 22
CAVENDISH Mark 21
TXURRUKA ANSOLA Amets 21
WIGGINS Bradley 21
OSS Daniel 19
ARVESEN Kurt Asle 18
CHICCHI Francesco 18
KESSIAKOFF Fredrik 18
NAVARRO GARCIA Daniel 17
HOOGERLAND Johnny 16
HOWARD Leigh 16
TAARAMÄE Rein 16
IVANOV Serguei 15
MAASKANT Martijn 14
MASCIARELLI Francesco 14
VAN GARDEREN Tejay 14
BLANCO RODRIGUEZ David 13
BOBRIDGE Jack 13
BOOM Lars 13
BOZIC Borut 13
CLEMENT Stef 13
IGNATIEV Mikhail 13
MEYER Cameron 13
SIUTSOU Kanstantsin 13
STEEGMANS Gert 13
CIOLEK Gerald 12
KREUZIGER Roman 12
BALLAN Alessandro 11
BETANCOURT GOMEZ Carlos Alberto 11
CAPECCHI Eros 11
GUSEV Vladimir 11
KROON Karsten 11
LLOYD Matthew 11
POSTHUMA Joost 11
SCHUMACHER Stefan 11
SELLA Emanuele 11
TALANSKY Andrew 11
FELLINE Fabio 10
GALIMZYANOV Denis 10
GASPAROTTO Enrico 10
KENNAUGH Peter 10
KWIATKOWSKI Michal 10
MADRAZO RUIZ Angel 10
MOLLEMA Bauke 10
POELS Wout 10
TERPSTRA Niki 10
GOSS Matthew 9
KUMP Marko 9
RASMUSSEN Alex 9
ROE Timothy 9
VAITKUS Tomas 9
BOASSON HAGEN Edvald 8
BRUSEGHIN Marzio 8
DE LA FUENTE RASILLA David 8
INTXAUSTI ELORRIAGA Beñat 8
KRUIJSWIJK Steven 8
O'GRADY Stuart 8
POPOVYCH Yaroslav 8
SCHLECK Andy 8
SINKEWITZ Patrik 8
SWIFT Ben 8
SÖRENSEN Chris Anker 8
ULISSI Diego 8
VALLS FERRI Rafael 8
VANSUMMEREN Johan 8
BOOKWALTER Brent 7
CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan 7
CLARKE William 7
GERDEMANN Linus 7
NORDHAUG Lars Petter 7
PLAZA MOLINA Ruben 7
RASMUSSEN Michael 7
SAMOILAU Branislau 7
AUGUSTYN John-Lee 6
CHAVANEL Sylvain 6
EFIMKIN Vladimir 6
GESINK Robert 6
GUARNIERI Jacopo 6
HOSTE Leif 6
KISERLOVSKI Robert 6
KRISTOFF Alexander 6
MEYER Travis 6
MODOLO Sacha 6
MOINARD Amaël 6
OLIVEIRA Nelson Felipe Santos 6
PAUWELS Serge 6
PORTE Richie 6
QUINZIATO Manuel 6
RATTO Daniele 6
SUTTON Christopher 6
TANNER David 6
TEN DAM Laurens 6
VELITS Peter 6
VIVIANI Elia 6
BAKELANTS Jan 5
BAUER Jack 5
CARUSO Damiano 5
CATALDO Dario 5
DE MAAR Marc 5
FAIRLY Caleb 5
GADRET John 5
GOMEZ MARCHANTE Jose Angel 5
HENAO MONTOYA Sergio Luis 5
HUTAROVICH Yauheni 5
KING Benjamin 5
KIRYIENKA Vasil 5
KOREN Kristjan 5
LANGEVELD Sebastian 5
NOCENTINI Rinaldo 5
SAGAN Juraj 5
SLAGTER Tom Jelte 5
STETINA Peter 5
THOMAS Geraint 5
VAN POPPEL Boy 5
WURF Cameron 5
APPOLLONIO Davide 4
BENNATI Daniele 4
BLYTHE Adam 4
BRESCHEL Matti 4
BURGHARDT Marcus 4
DENIFL Stefan 4
GREIPEL Andre 4
GUARDINI Andrea 4
IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Gorka 4
KIRCHEN Kim 4
LEQUATRE Geoffroy 4
MARTENS Paul 4
NAPOLITANO Danilo 4
NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel 4
NIZZOLO Giacomo 4
PONZI Simone 4
POSSONI Morris 4
SANTAMBROGIO Mauro 4
SULZBERGER Wesley 4
SZMYD Sylwester 4
TONDO VOLPINI Xavier 4
VEIKKANEN Jussi 4
WILLEMS Frederik 4
BASSO Ivan 3
BOL Jetse 3
BOLE Grega 3
BONNET William 3
BRAMMEIER Matthew 3
CANTWELL Jonathan 3
CHRISTENSEN Mads 3
DANIELSON Tom 3
DAVIS Allan 3
DESSEL Cyril 3
DEVOLDER Stijn 3
DI GREGORIO Remy 3
DURBRIDGE Luke 3
FRANK Mathias 3
GALLOPIN Tony 3
GRABSCH Bert 3
GRETSCH Patrick 3
GULDHAMMER Rasmus 3
HAEDO Juan Jose 3
HAEDO Lucas Sebastian 3
HERRADA LOPEZ Jesus 3
HUNTER Robert 3
JEANNESSON Arnold 3
JOLY Sébastien 3
KARPETS Vladimir 3
KEUKELEIRE Jens 3
KLIER Andreas 3
KOLOBNEV Alexandr 3
KREDER Michel 3
LANCASTER Brett 3
MALORI Adriano 3
MARTIN Daniel 3
MORABITO Steve 3
NAVARDAUSKAS Ramunas 3
OFFREDO Yoann 3
PARDILLA BELLON Sergio 3
PAULINHO Sergio Miguel Moreira 3
POZZATO Filippo 3
QUINTANA ROJAS Nairo Alexander 3
SAGAN Peter 3
SASTRE CANDIL Carlos 3
SERGENT Jesse 3
STANNARD Ian 3
SUTHERLAND Rory 3
TIRALONGO Paolo 3
USOV Alexandre 3
VAN AVERMAET Greg 3
VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen 3
VANMARCKE Sep 3
VELITS Martin 3
WALKER Johnnie 3
WEGELIUS Charles 3
WEGMANN Fabian 3
AGNOLI Valerio 2
AVERY Clinton 2
BELLETTI Manuel 2
BOIVIN Guillaume 2
BUGGE Vegard Robinson 2
BUSCHE Matthew 2
CANCELLARA Fabian 2
CARDOSO Manuel Antonio Leal 2
CHAVANEL Sébastien 2
CLARKE Simon 2
DEBUSSCHERE Jens 2
DEKKER Thomas 2
DEL NERO MONTES Jesus 2
DIDIER Laurent 2
DOCKER Mitchell 2
EIJSSEN Yannick 2
EVANS Cadel 2
FARRAR Tyler 2
FISCHER Murilo Antonio 2
FLECHA GIANNONI Juan Antonio 2
FUGLSANG Jakob 2
FURLAN Angelo 2
GAUTIER Cyril 2
GENIEZ Alexandre 2
GODDAERT Kristof 2
GRILLO Paride 2
HANSEN Adam 2
HAYMAN Mathew 2
HINCAPIE George 2
IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Ion 2
KING Benjamin Aus 2
KITTEL Marcel 2
KLÖDEN Andreas 2
KONOVALOVAS Ignatas 2
KRITSKIY Timofey 2
KUSCHYNSKI Aleksandr 2
LAENGEN Vegard Stake 2
LE LAY David 2
LE MEVEL Christophe 2
LOWE Trent 2
MENCHOV Denis 2
NIEMIEC Przemyslaw 2
OVECHKIN Artem 2
PATE Danny 2
PAURIOL Rémi 2
PERAUD Jean-Christophe 2
PETERSON Thomas 2
PINEAU Jérôme 2
PINOT Thibaut 2
PIRES Bruno Manuel Silva 2
RABON Frantisek 2
RAKE Christer 2
REIJNEN Kiel 2
ROCHE Nicolas 2
ROULSTON Hayden 2
SABATINI Fabio 2
SALERNO Cristiano 2
SELANDER Bjorn 2
SILIN Egor 2
SPILAK Simon 2
STAUFF Andreas 2
STEENSEN André 2
TEKLEHAIMANOT GIRMAZION Daniel 2
TSCHOPP Johann 2
VALJAVEC Tadej 2
VAN IMPE Kevin 2
VAN STAEYEN Michael 2
VAN WINDEN Dennis 2
VERMELTFOORT Coen 2
VICIOSO ARCOS Angel 2
WEYLANDT Wouter 2
ZABRISKIE David 2

 

[ingsve]

AASVOLD Lorents Ola 1
ABDULMANOV Ruslan 1
ABERASTURI IZAGA Jon 1
AGOSTINI Mauro 1
AKVIK Niklas 1
ALMURRAWI Tariq Murad Mohamed 1
ASTARLOZA CHAURREAU Mikel 1
BANDIERA Marco 1
BARLE Florent 1
BARREDO LLAMAZALES Carlos 1
BARRY Michael 1
BARTA Jan 1
BELL Zachary 1
BERCZ Patrick 1
BERGSETH Asgeir 1
BERTOGLIATI Rubens 1
BEYER Chad 1
BLIKRA Håvard 1
BODIOT Alexis 1
BODROGI Laszlo 1
BOECKMANS Kris 1
BONNAFOND Guillaume 1
BORGERSEN Reidar 1
BORRAJO Alejandro Alberto 1
BORRAJO Anibal Andres 1
BRAJKOVIC Janez 1
BRAMBILLA Gianluca 1
BROWN Graeme 1
BRUTT Pavel 1
BRÄNDLE Matthias 1
BUTLER Christopher 1
CALZATI Sylvain 1
CANO ARDILA Alex Norberto 1
CAPPELLE Andy 1
CARDOSO Andre Fernando S. Martins 1
CARRARA Matteo 1
CHAINEL Steve 1
CHALAPUD GOMEZ Robinson Eduardo 1
CHAMPION Dimitri 1
CHOI Seung Woo 1
CIONI Dario David 1
COOKE Baden 1
CORNU Dominique 1
COUSIN Jerome 1
CRETSKENS Wilfried 1
DE GREEF Francis 1
DE VOCHT Wim 1
DEKKERS Hans 1
DENNIS Rohan 1
DEVENYNS Dries 1
DUEÑAS NEVADO Moises 1
DURAN AROCA Arkaitz 1
EIDSHEIM Filip 1
EISEL Bernhard 1
EL FARES Julien 1
FAILLI Francesco 1
FEILLU Romain 1
FORBORD Kristian 1
FROOME Chris 1
GALVIZ GARCIA Carlos Johan 1
GARATE CEPA Juan Manuel 1
GARCIA ETXEGUIBEL Egoitz 1
GAVAZZI Francesco 1
GIANETTI Noe 1
GILBERT Philippe 1
GINANNI Francesco 1
GNEZDA Matej 1
GRABOVSKYY Dmytro 1
GRIVKO Andriy 1
GUTIERREZ PALACIOS David 1
HADDOU Saïd 1
HAMMOND Roger 1
HEGREBERG Roy 1
HENDERSON Gregory 1
HERMANS Ben 1
HERNANDEZ BLAZQUEZ Jesus 1
HESJEDAL Ryder 1
HIVERT Jonathan 1
HONDO Danilo 1
HORNER Chris 1
HOWES Alex 1
HULSMANS Kevin 1
HUSHOVD Thor 1
HUZARSKI Bartosz 1
HØYDEN Øyvind 1
IGLINSKIY Maxim 1
IGLINSKIY Valentin 1
IRIARTE GARRO Francisco Javier 1
IVO Dominik 1
JACQUES-MAYNES Ben 1
JARSTO Daniel Egeland 1
JENKINS Max 1
JENSEN Christer 1
KANGERT Tanel 1
KEIZER Martijn 1
KING Edward 1
KLEMME Dominic 1
KONIG Leopold 1
KYER Julian 1
LACOMBE Keven 1
LADAGNOUS Matthieu 1
LAENGEN Oystein Stake 1
LANDA MEANA Mikel 1
LANDIS Floyd 1
LAPTHORNE Darren 1
LAVERDE JIMENEZ Luis Felipe 1
LE BON Johan 1
LEWIS Craig 1
LOBATO DEL VALLE Juan Jose 1
LODDO Alberto 1
LOHNE Mats 1
LORENZETTO Mirco 1
LOUDER Jeff 1
LUND Anders 1
MACHADO Tiago Jose Pinto 1
MAES Nikolas 1
MAI Nguyen Hung 1
MALACARNE Davide 1
MANCEBO PEREZ Francisco 1
MANGEL Laurent 1
MARANGONI Alan 1
MARQUE PORTO Alejandro Manuel 1
MARTINEZ DE ESTEBAN Egoi 1
MARTINEZ MONTEREO John Edilberto 1
MARYCZ Jaroslaw 1
MASCIARELLI Simone 1
MAYOZ ETXEBERRIA Iban 1
MCEWEN Robbie 1
MEIER Christian 1
MIRONOV Alexander 1
MOAZZEMI GODARZI Arvin 1
MOERENHOUT Koos 1
MOL Wouter 1
MOLMY Arnaud 1
MONCOUTIÉ David 1
MONDORY Lloyd 1
MONSALVE PERTSINIDIS Yonathan Alejandro 1
MORAJKO Jacek 1
MORENO BAZAN Javier 1
MORKOV CHRISTENSEN Michael 1
MORTENSEN Martin 1
MURPHY John 1
MUTO Pasquale 1
NEPOMNYACHSNIY Yevgeni 1
NERZ Dominik 1
NIBALI Vincenzo 1
NIERMANN Grischa 1
NILSEN HOEM Bjorn Tore 1
NOSE Tomasz 1
OCHOA Carlos Jose 1
ORTEGA OCAÑA Manuel 1
PANTANO GOMEZ Jarlinson 1
PEDERSEN Martin 1
PEÑA GRISALES Victor Hugo 1
PEREZ ARRIETA Aitor 1
PEREZ MORENO Ruben 1
PERGET Mathieu 1
PETIT Adrien 1
PETROV Danail Andonov 1
PETROV Evgeni 1
PINFOLD Andrew 1
PLIUSCHIN Alexandre 1
PORTAL Nicolas 1
POUX Paul 1
POZZOVIVO Domenico 1
PUJOL MUÑOZ Oscar 1
RABOTTINI Matteo 1
RABUÑAL RIOS Gonzalo 1
RAIMBEKOV Bolat 1
RASCH Gabriel 1
RAST Grégory 1
REIMER Martin 1
REMME Stian 1
REUS Kai 1
ROCCHETTI Federico 1
ROGERS Michael 1
ROJAS GIL Jose Joaquin 1
ROLLAND Pierre 1
ROLLIN Dominique 1
ROMERO AMARAN Luis Alberto 1
ROUTLEY Will 1
ROUX Anthony 1
RUTKIEWICZ Marek 1
RYABKIN Alexander 1
SANTAROMITA Ivan 1
SANZ UNZUE Enrique 1
SARMIENTO TUNARROSA Cayetano Jose 1
SAUGSTAD Stian 1
SCHÄR Michael 1
SERBAN Albert Filon 1
SIEBERG Marcel 1
SOBRINO MARTINEZ Joaquin 1
SOLARI Luca 1
SOLBERG Frode 1
SOUPE Geoffrey 1
STEVENSON Michael 1
SUAREZ SUAREZ Juan Pablo 1
THURAU Björn 1
TJALLINGII Maarten 1
TROFIMOV Yury 1
TUFT Svein 1
VACHON Florian 1
VALENCIA OCAMPO William Andres 1
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro 1
VAN DEN NOORTGATE Kevin 1
VAN DIERMEN Johnny 1
VAN EMDEN Jos 1
VAN HUFFEL Wim 1
VAN HUMMEL Kenny 1
VAN LEIJEN Joost 1
VANENDERT Jelle 1
VANOTTI Alessandro 1
VANTOMME Maxime 1
VEELERS Tom 1
VEILLEUX David 1
VENTOSO ALBERDI Francisco Jose 1
VERMOTE Julien 1
VICHOT Arthur 1
VIGANO Davide 1
VINOKOUROV Alexandre 1
VISCONTI Giovanni 1
VOLD Svein Erik 1
WEENING Pieter 1
WOLSKI Marcin 1
WYSS Marcel 1
ZANDIO ECHAIDE Xabier 1
ØLMHEIM Ole Martin 1

 

[ingsve]

That didn't take as long as I thought.

The total number of riders chosen are 517. The average number of teams for a rider is 29.5 teams but the median number is only 2 teams so there are a relatively small number of riders that are on many teams and lots and lots of riders that are only on 1-3 teams.

I'm a bit surprised that only 3 riders are on more than half the teams but I guess that is good since it means the teams are less alike than I thought.

 

[will10]

Thanks for counting the riders up, is quite cool to have a couple of riders on my team that no-one else picked (and a few 1 or 2 others picked). Hopefully they will turn out to be the diamonds!

 

[The Hitch]

But most riders in the 150-300 range aren't going to explode and earn 1000 points this year. IMO it's better to have one consistent point-getter, and build from there.

the point about 150 - 300 point riders is that they get their 200 or so points by finishing races and having a go at one or two. They are all extremely likely to at the very least get the same points total next season.

If for 1000 points you choose 5 at 200 each then even if one or two gets a season long injury(very unlikely), the other 3 will compensate. If one or 2 have a very bad season (which is more difficult when your just finishing races) the other 3 will compensate.

On the other hand if you pick a 1000 point rider like Cav to get that 1000 points he needs to be on top form, winning as many races as he did last year. an injury for him gets you big losses.

To illustrate my point Look at Tjanlingee.

67th Quebec 5
47th Vattenfall 5
132 Tour De France 20
19th Dutch road race 5
9th Dutch itt 7
68th Criterium Dauphine 5
46th Tour of California 5
31 Paris Roubaix 5
46th Flanders 5
85th San remo 5

THats 57 points right there, just for riding. Just for domestiquing. Theres not a single finish there that he even cared about where he finished.

On top of that he got 150 points for the race he targeted. He didnt win the Eneco tour of Beneloux. He came 7th. and got 150 points for that. Just like Johnny walker got 120 points for the Tour of Hainan, his race.

Or greg henderson


6th Giro stage 7
69th PR 5
89th RVV 5
99th MSR 5
113th TA 5
90th Montreal 5
95th Quebex 5
75th Eneco 5
17th Vattenfall 19
13th Dutch food classic 15
135th TDp 5
4th TDp stage 10
6th TDP stage 4

95 Points for that.

Another 110 for some good performances here and there.

And for every one of those 200 point riders you select theres always the chance theyll fail, but they limit their losses for sure, and theres always the chance they do an Albasini and win a race and double their total. A lucky break at a pt race can = a few days in the leaders jersey and theyll be getting 600 points, whereas when they fail, they only lose you a 100 or so.

 

[jaylew]

Hey, guys. I was wondering if there's any way I could still join? As most of you know, I'm an active member of the forum but I have to take short sabbatical at the end of the season and limit myself to reading the main site to keep abreast with cycling news for a couple of months. With the start of the new year, I'm back and I was really hoping someone would organize something like this but I didn't think it would start so early. I could throw a team together asap and would really appreciate if I could be included.

thanks

 

[Dutchsmurf]

That didn't take as long as I thought.

The total number of riders chosen are 517. The average number of teams for a rider is 29.5 teams but the median number is only 2 teams so there are a relatively small number of riders that are on many teams and lots and lots of riders that are only on 1-3 teams.

I'm a bit surprised that only 3 riders are on more than half the teams but I guess that is good since it means the teams are less alike than I thought.

I see you already did the counting. My first method indeed crashed Excel. Plan B did work tho. With the added advantage you can see who was smart (or stupid) enough to pick a certain rider. You can find it here. If there is anything else worth adding, I can always take a look.

For the people checking out the macros used. There probably is a better way to do it, but this was the best I could think of.

 

[EvansIsTheBest]

For counting, a bit late but still better than nothing, simply use Ctrl F, with options choose search in the sheet go on the team sheet enter the name of a cyclist and it should tell you the numbrer of cells (cyclists here) found

Three originals for me : Bonnin, Le Bon and Soupe. Go France

EDIT : forgot Reimer also alone.

 

[Passista]

I think I have 8 unique riders, which might be the only thing I have to boast about all year, so I will. Looked like a couple of teams had loads of obscure riders on them though: TeamSkyFans, Wigginsfan?

Although that may just mean I spent too many points on unlikely riders.

 

[skidmark]

But to be more general the better teams should have 33 ridrers and preferably no one costing more than 600. Unsurprisingly a lot more people who submitted their list with CObo and Deignan and Schumacher and Di Luca after December 10th or so, went for 33 riders, no doubt reading not just other peoples lists but the discussion on this subject in the early pages.

But a lot of people included a 700 - 1200 rider and then to compensate for the lack of points left, included a bunch of guys who cost 0- 50.

IMO this is like sprinting the first half of a time trial and then being a bit tired for the second half. Consistency is a good thing. THe average cost per rider for 7500 points is something like 215 so with the exception of the steals mentioned above, its best to keep many riders close in the 150- 300 range as they have a bigger room for improvement than the 500 + riders.

I agree, for the most part. I think for sure 33 riders is the way to go, that seems a no-brainer to me. Especially if you think all 33 are going to do better than the year before. It's better to spread out your risk, I think. Although a lot of people like the thrill of picking one or a few hot favourites and then cheering for them all year. As far as having 'many riders in the 150-300 range', I didn't use that strategy, so much as I only asked 'how much more can each of those riders get me'? I think my team ends up having few in the 150-300 range. It has 3 riders over 700, 4 more over 400, 3 more over 300, only 4 in the 150-300 range, 4 more between 100-150, 5 between 50-100 and then 10 between 0-50. It will be interesting to see which strategy works best of all the ones people employed. My rationale was that the low scoring guys were all quite capable of breaking out to varying degrees, but at least would probably ride solidly enough to improve a bit. And then the higher scoring guys would probably improve more, if they did improve... if that makes sense.

One more note - you seem to be implying that you think that anyone who entered after the false 'deadline' has taken advantage of the ability to see who was on the other teams. I just want to let you know that is not the case with all of us, at least. I was around for the whole thing and glanced over the thread, but decided that the fun was in the process of picking, so I avoided all that. I say that because, if you looked at my team from the outside, you see that a lot of riders I took ended up being very popular. But rest assured, despite the fact that I didn't send my team in until the 30th, I wasn't 'tipped off' to anyone, I followed a method that had me poring over all 30-odd pages of cq rankings, then going back in previous years to see who might be missing from the list, or long term patterns of riders' consistencies. It was hours of research that I'm hoping pays off. I just don't want that work to be misunderstood or dishonoured by a broad assumption that everyone must have taken some shortcuts or something.

Oh, and good luck, to you and all. I can't wait to get this season underway.

 

[skidmark]

Thanks for all the summary work, Ingsve!

The biggest shockers for me:

BALLAN Alessandro 11

BENNATI Daniele 4

I mean, Ballan seems to me to be a pretty likely bet to get about 3-400 points more than this year, making him a strong value, and he has the talent to get even more than that if he has a good year. And Bennati - granted, I didn't take him but was close - he's got the potential to have a wicked year with a new team, although he's had the 'potential' to have another 2007 for every year since then. But still, I thought more people thought he'd be worth the risk.

 

[ingsve]

I mean, Ballan seems to me to be a pretty likely bet to get about 3-400 points more than this year, making him a strong value, and he has the talent to get even more than that if he has a good year. And Bennati - granted, I didn't take him but was close - he's got the potential to have a wicked year with a new team, although he's had the 'potential' to have another 2007 for every year since then. But still, I thought more people thought he'd be worth the risk.

No, that seems about right with Bennati. He is way to expensive. The main thing that I focused on was riders that had a good possibility of at least doubling their score or close to that and for Bennati to be worth it he would have to get 1100-1200 which he has only gotten once before and with the way sprinting is right now there is very little chance of that. He's simply not as fast as the Cavs, Farrars, Greipels etc out there. He will most likely end in the 600-800 point range next year if he has a decent year.

 

[The Hitch]

One more note - you seem to be implying that you think that anyone who entered after the false 'deadline' has taken advantage of the ability to see who was on the other teams. I just want to let you know that is not the case with all of us, at least. I was around for the whole thing and glanced over the thread, but decided that the fun was in the process of picking, so I avoided all that. I say that because, if you looked at my team from the outside, you see that a lot of riders I took ended up being very popular. But rest assured, despite the fact that I didn't send my team in until the 30th, I wasn't 'tipped off' to anyone, I followed a method that had me poring over all 30-odd pages of cq rankings, then going back in previous years to see who might be missing from the list, or long term patterns of riders' consistencies. It was hours of research that I'm hoping pays off. I just don't want that work to be misunderstood or dishonoured by a broad assumption that everyone must have taken some shortcuts or something.

Oh, and good luck, to you and all. I can't wait to get this season underway.

Well Cobo remained exactly the same but if you look at Deignan he was chosen four times out of 30 to start.

Thats 13 %. One in every 8 people.

Since then he was chosen 25 times out of 58. Thats 43%. An huge increase. 3.3 times as many people chose him after the deadline.

A far smaller % increase was recently used by a university proffesor in florida to determine that students had cheated. He turned out to be right and it turned out advanced copies of the test had circulated. He had a small increase on which he judged that on. This is a bigger one.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbzJTTDO9f4



Also you will find that one contestant admited to looking at previous posts others said they would if they could and most importantly you have a big increase in the number of people who have ALL the steals. Cobo Vandevelde, Schumacher, Deignan etc. All of them.

I think a lot of the teams submited after are superteams.

I agree, for the most part. I think for sure 33 riders is the way to go, that seems a no-brainer to me. Especially if you think all 33 are going to do better than the year before. It's better to spread out your risk, I think. Although a lot of people like the thrill of picking one or a few hot favourites and then cheering for them all year. As far as having 'many riders in the 150-300 range', I didn't use that strategy, so much as I only asked 'how much more can each of those riders get me'? I think my team ends up having few in the 150-300 range. It has 3 riders over 700, 4 more over 400, 3 more over 300, only 4 in the 150-300 range, 4 more between 100-150, 5 between 50-100 and then 10 between 0-50. It will be interesting to see which strategy works best of all the ones people employed. My rationale was that the low scoring guys were all quite capable of breaking out to varying degrees, but at least would probably ride solidly enough to improve a bit. And then the higher scoring guys would probably improve more, if they did improve... if that makes sense.

As i said the good thing about the 200 guys is that they have it a lot easier to regain their points from last season. See my examples with Henderson and Tangeli (or whatever) getting 90 and 60 points just from finishing in the 145 in the tour and 100th in MSR etc. and those are just 2 random examples i picked. There are definately guys out there who got 200 or so points from mediocre finishes.

As for picking riders you like, well ill be cheering on the riders i like anyway. Choosing lesser riders you dont neccesary feel anything for means you will be cheering them on as well

 

[ingsve]

As i said the good thing about the 200 guys is that they have it a lot easier to regain their points from last season. See my examples with Henderson and Tangeli (or whatever) getting 90 and 60 points just from finishing in the 145 in the tour and 100th in MSR etc. and those are just 2 random examples i picked. There are definately guys out there who got 200 or so points from mediocre finishes.

As for picking riders you like, well ill be cheering on the riders i like anyway. Choosing lesser riders you dont neccesary feel anything for means you will be cheering them on as well

And another thing is that riders that ended at around 100-200 points are likely to be riders that had a bad year who are likely to get a better year next year. When you start creeping up to 400-500 points most of those riders had pretty good years by their own standard and only very few of them are big stars that had bad years.

 

[MADRAZO]

Unsurprisingly a lot more people who submitted their list with CObo and Deignan and Schumacher and Di Luca after December 10th or so, went for 33 riders, no doubt reading not just other peoples lists but the discussion on this subject in the early pages. "

Another reason for this more than the contestants having looked at the other teams and "stealing" their picks/tactics, is just the simple fact that teams entered later on had simply had done more research and therefore had more steals included and a more well thought tactic.

As an experienced cycling-game-competitor I personaly was also quite surpriced that so many sent in their teams so soon. Normaly it would be standard to send such teams very close to the deadline to get as much info as possible before the final choises.

My guess is that most of the people sending in late would have spotted the obvious steals wether or not they were discussed in the thred or not, and if the people sending in early on had used a little more time they would have found them too. The only thing that might have changed something was the bit unclear rules in the beginning that might have kept some teams from looking closer at the low-scoring riders or ex-dopers.

 

[The Hitch]

As an experienced cycling-game-competitor I personaly was also quite surpriced that so many sent in their teams so soon. .

1 The reason people sent their teams in early because the original deadline was 23 days ago, so we sent them in to meet that deadline.

2 I know that the vast majority of people played it fairly. If you look at Cobo he was picked by 25 out of the 57 who sent their lists in later, which is 42% meaning 60% did not cheat.

But a few people have ALL the steals and it would take a LOT of time and be highly unlikely to find all of them.

Especially considering that once you get into the Cobo, deignan and Schumacher territory you have a huge number of riders.

Consider that you have 1000 riders in the 20-100 range

Theres another 1000 in the 5-20 range. Another 1000 in the 0- 5 range.

So i doubt people could find all these guys through simple research unless they were employing a company to do it

Are we to believe that all of these people thought "oh yeah Deignan, oh yeah Cobo, oh yeah Stybar" and so on and so on until you happen to get all the steals the rest of the forum got together?


Not to mention the fact that one person admited to having a sneaky peak and others who sent their lists in early said they would if they could.

 

[ingsve]

1 The reason people sent their teams in early because the original deadline was 23 days ago, so we sent them in to meet that deadline.

2 I know that the vast majority of people played it fairly. If you look at Cobo he was picked by 25 out of the 57 who sent their lists in later, which is 42% meaning 60% did not cheat.

But a few people have ALL the steals and it would take a LOT of time and be highly unlikely to find all of them.

Especially considering that once you get into the Cobo, deignan and Schumacher territory you have a huge number of riders.

Consider that you have 1000 riders in the 20-100 range

Default
Quote:
Originally Posted by MADRAZO View Post




As an experienced cycling-game-competitor I personaly was also quite surpriced that so many sent in their teams so soon. .
1 The reason people sent their teams in early because the original deadline was 23 days ago, so we sent them in to meet that deadline.

2 I know that the vast majority of people played it fairly. If you look at Cobo he was picked by 25 out of the 57 who sent their lists in later, which is 42% meaning 60% did not cheat.

But a few people have ALL the steals and it would take a LOT of time and be highly unlikely to find all of them.

Especially considering that once you get into the Cobo, deignan and Schumacher territory you have a huge number of riders.

Consider that you have 1000 riders in the 20-100 range

Theres another 1000 in the 5-20 range. Another 1000 in the 0- 5 range.

So i doubt people could find all these guys through simple research unless they were employing a company to do it

Are we to believe that all of these people thought "oh yeah Deignan, oh yeah Cobo, oh yeah Stybar" and so on and so on until you happen to get all the steals the rest of the forum got together?

Theres another 1000 in the 5-20 range. Another 1000 in the 0- 5 range.

So i doubt people could find all these guys through simple research unless they were employing a company to do it

Are we to believe that all of these people thought "oh yeah Deignan, oh yeah Cobo, oh yeah Stybar" and so on and so on until you happen to get all the steals the rest of the forum got together?


Not to mention the fact that one person admited to having a sneaky peak and others who sent their lists in early said they would if they could.

Well, to be fair I think you are overestimating how hard most of the finds are to find. Just by going through the transfer page for all the PT and pro conti teams you can easily find most of them.

Some probably did look at the lists etc but to say that everyone who chose Cobo after the extended deadline found him in this thread would wrong.

At the end of the day I don't think this game will be decided by the obvious finds but rather who has made the overall best guesses about what riders will improve most.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Not fair, stick to a deadline, don't let people enter teams past the deadline.

 

[Armchair Cyclist]

The rules are not fair,but if we are not seriously for a match,this would give us more surprises,may be more fun.

If you let me know what seems unfair to you, I can try to avoid such errors if I run something similar next year

 

[sublimit]

Jaylew should be allowed to enter a team because i recall him winning a TDF fantasy game last year. He seems an expert like T-L-R, Hrotha, and er.. myself. I want to go head to head with the best.

But Its up to Hugo Koblet on this one..

 

[The Hitch]

As an experienced cycling-game-competitor I personaly was also quite surpriced that so many sent in their teams so soon.

Teams were sent in early because the original deadline was December 9th. After they were sent in the deadline was extended.

Jaylew should be allowed to enter a team because i recall him winning a TDF fantasy game last year. He seems an expert like T-L-R, Hrotha, and er.. myself. I want to go head to head with the best.

But Its up to Hugo Koblet on this one..

Hrotha is a cycling genius but his team has a lot of wildcards. He went very big on Gesink who is highly unlikely to beat his last year total and on Bole, Van Armeret and Ricco.


While Timmy Loves Rabo did very well in the Tour, he didnt exactly try to win this one He went for riders he likes, and lots of riders who had a very good last season.

For me the favourites are.

1 From those with less time

Hugo Koblet, Melow Velo, Kvinto, Buemington, Hrotha Contre Lemond, nvpachi, Jukebox for positions 10-3.

Hugo has all 33 and a lot of good picks at around 200 but Anton and Breschel will cost him.

COntre and Buemington have very good teams with well spread out lists.

Kvinto Melo and nvpachi have a lot of wildcards who could turn out big points.

However. 2 clear favourites have emerged. Ingsve and Roundabout.

Insgave and would have been favourite for overall if he could leave his hatred for dopers behind. Me, id choose OJ simpson if i felt he was going to get me points.

Then theres Hrotha, The Cobra, Parrulo as wildcards.


2 From those with more time

Ham and eggs
Mortland
Noblis
Madrazo
The Amateur
Handbrake
Sneeks
have ALL of Schumacher, Vandevelde, Di Luca, Gerrans and Cobo and will fight the overall amongst themselves.

Also good teams from those with more time have Waterloo Sunrise and the youngest though Gesink will cost him.

So to conclude, for the overall i see the above list with maybe a challenge from youngest, roundabout or ingsve.

from the regulat posters i see it as

1 Roundabout
2 Ingsve
3 Waterloo
4 youngest
5 Melo

What about the rest of you?

Who do you all see as the favourites

Note: I did not include myself in this.

 

[sublimit]

I've gone for several SKY riders so it wont be me. I must admit i havnt studied other teams that closely but sneekes team looked quite good but I'm not sure he's still competing.

Francois the postman should of entered but he's a mod so didnt!? maybe next time.

 

[skidmark]

No, that seems about right with Bennati. He is way to expensive. The main thing that I focused on was riders that had a good possibility of at least doubling their score or close to that and for Bennati to be worth it he would have to get 1100-1200 which he has only gotten once before and with the way sprinting is right now there is very little chance of that. He's simply not as fast as the Cavs, Farrars, Greipels etc out there. He will most likely end in the 600-800 point range next year if he has a decent year.

Yeah, that's why I didn't pick him too, but I guess I almost did so I thought more people might have taken that hope, however faint. But yeah, he was pretty expensive.