I think we need to conclude that Gigs doesn't watch enough cycling.Don't forget this either:
In before I jinx Pogacar and he totally disappears from GT contention in future years.
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I think we need to conclude that Gigs doesn't watch enough cycling.Don't forget this either:
In before I jinx Pogacar and he totally disappears from GT contention in future years.
He should be banned tbh.I think we need to conclude that Gigs doesn't watch enough cycling.
Quite the opposite. He watches far too much cycling for our entertainment.I think we need to conclude that Gigs doesn't watch enough cycling.
You know, I saw I got a reply in the Dauphine thread and I already knew this was coming.Yeah, it's almost as if it wasn't just obvious that this post of yours would age rather poorly - it was already rotten before you hit submit
(And it definitely has signature quality)
Should have written "at least one opinion doesn't turn to absolute dogshit"The one about Dumoulin?
So...well over a month has passed since I wrote this and I feel like I should take a look back. It's very well possible you don't care about what some armchair fan wrote a few weeks ago, in that case just ignore this. Anyway, point by point:I feel like hottakes right now so here we go.
Based on the previous history of their riders JV should right now probably realize that they have one obvious horse to back for the tour, that being Dumoulin. I'll keep saying the thing I've regularly said last year, Roglic is insanely overrated. He keeps doing his last kilometer efforts in preperation races which impress people so much that they decide to ignore his actual gt performances.
He won the Vuelta, sure, and you have to be a very strong rider to do that, but it doesn't automatically make you the top favorite for the tour. And then what gt performance is supposed to convince me that he is the current gc top guy? Him climbing on par with a 21 year old in the Vuelta? Him getting dropped by Carapaz and Nibali at will in the last week of the giro? I genuinely believe his most impressive gt climbing performances came in the 3rd week of the 2018 Tour where he still wasn't climbing better than a number of guys who will be his rivals this year.
Sure his preperation race results so far look great but so they did before last years giro. I don't buy it.
Meanwhile Dumoulin is slowly building up his form just like he always did. The lack of TT's might become a problem for him, but if it's just about his shape I'd argue he looks just like his former self again. And I know it's easy to forget but that former self was labeled as the one to derail Ineos less than two years ago. If it's about peak performance I absolutely think Dumoulin is still a level above Roglic and I'm inclined to think he'll hit that peak in France this year.
I guess the favorite for me is still Bernal though, but I'm starting to think he'll be just a slightly better (not even sure about that bit) version of Quintana. He got the tour win Quintana never achieved but was 2019 Bernal actually any better than 2013 Quintana? 2013 Quintana didn't win because 2013 Froome was around and neither would Bernal with peak Froome as his opponent. A year gone and I don't feel like Bernal improved. Now that's not catastrophic because there is still no 2013 Froome in sight, so he could still very well win. But he's not gonna become the next tour dominator and he'll have to take his wins before the next one arises.
Then of course there is Pogacar, the other young and upcoming star. He's not gonna be the next big thing either and I'd bet quite a bit that the hype surrounding him will largely disappear after this tour. He will without a doubt become a great rider, he might very well win a gt one day, but I get serious Enric Mas vibes by him who basically did the exact same thing as him at the Vuelta, just a year earlier and nobody is hyping him now. Of course Pogacar was even younger but still. There is something about him that makes me think he just peaked very early and got lucky with a super weak Vuelta field.
Meanwhile I wholeheartedly think this could be Pinot's year. Just like it could have been last year. There are so many big names lining up for the tour (argubly much bigger than Pinot's) but to me it feels like the field isn't actually much stronger than it was a year ago. If he is as good again and I have the feeling he will be, I genuinely think he has a decent chance to win.
I feel like many people will disagree with some of these things so I just want to say that I did not intend to offend anyone. We'll see soon enough about which things I'm right and about which I'm wrong soon enough (and I'm very well aware some of the things I wrote might reeeeally not age well ^^). So yeah, I'm just really looking forward to the tour really curious how things will go.
Yeah Thomas wasn't anywhere like this.You have 2018 Thomas in very high regard IMHO. Too high I would say.
Pogacar level is so high that only Remco can save us.
Can't really correct for route.The comfortable was more about Froome, though I still think Thomas could have won this.
Now my question is, do you think those riders would have struggled to win against Pogacar because you think they would have struggled last year too, or because you think Pogacar's and this Tour's general level was so high. And if it's the latter, why?
Can't really correct for route.
IMO Pog and Rog both beat Bernal handily. I've said previously I thought Roglic last year in the Vuelta was stronger than Bernal on any non ridiculous route. Porte I dunno but depends on crosswind action but he probably rides a really good ITT and doesn't lose in Pyrenees either. Bernal got off really lucky with how passively the Tourmalet was raced.
So were Buchmann and AlaphilippeWasn't Porte in the Tour last year, or am I missing something?
I mean, we do know where Bernal was after almost two weeks and it wasn't that far behind Roglic despite argubly being in even worse shape. The thing with Bernal last year is, once they did hit the Alps he was actually way better than everyone else, not just a little bit. When I look at Lopez outclimbing Roglic on stage 17 I just can't help but think peak Bernal would have taken a lot more time there.Can't really correct for route.
IMO Pog and Rog both beat Bernal handily. I've said previously I thought Roglic last year in the Vuelta was stronger than Bernal on any non ridiculous route. Porte I dunno but depends on crosswind action but he probably rides a really good ITT and doesn't lose in Pyrenees either. Bernal got off really lucky with how passively the Tourmalet was raced.
Took 30s on the Galibier on a group which were stuck together. Then a minute on Iseran when they group behind were riding to keep a domestique around. Iseran gaps were huge but that's more Ineos pace than just Bernal. I think Roglic takes 20s in the TTT (being generous assuing they don't go faster), drops Bernal on PdbF (that final suits Roglic like a glove), wins the ITT and then already has 2 minutes and probably takes more time on Prat d'Albis and Tourmalet while having Kruijswijk as a domestique. Maybe he lets Bernal have his half minute on the Galibier, maybe he sits on Kruijswijk on the Iseran (worst case scenario) then he still has at least half a minute on Val Thorens where he never gets dropped cause he's more explosive and will always be able to sit on Bernals wheel. In fact if Roglic has yellow there then Ineos have to pace the entirety of Val Thorens which makes them weaker towards the end of the climb.I mean, we do know where Bernal was after almost two weeks and it wasn't that far behind Roglic despite argubly being in even worse shape. The thing with Bernal last year is, once they did hit the Alps he was actually way better than everyone else, not just a little bit. When I look at Lopez outclimbing Roglic on stage 17 I just can't help but think peak Bernal would have taken a lot more time there.
Now that doesn't mean it would have been easy for Bernal. Even if he takes time on the two big mtf's and stage 18. Bernal does still have his big limitations, after all that was one of the points in my original post too, but riding against a guy who can outclimb you on the big climbs is just always super difficult. There might just be some long range or tactical shenanigans and suddenly you lose three minutes on one day. I also think that if Bernal had been in top shape and Ineos had ridden that way the style of racing would have suited Roglic much less than when his team was able to dictate the pace.