Critérium du Dauphiné 2024, June 2 - 9

[Pantani_lives]

The Dauphiné can be misleading.

In 2008 Carlos Sastre finished 20th, twelve minutes behind Valverde.

In 2014 Nibali finished 7th after being dropped uphill several times.

The only certainty is that Jack Haig always finishes 5th or 27th.

 

[tobydawq]

I hate to burst the bubble here, but this is not the Tour and it's basically training with the opportunity to see how well your rivals are doing. It will be more interesting to see who gets dropped as soon as the road goes up, then who wins.(Yes, I'm talking about you, Gaudu! and why's Mas not here?)
It's a "last chance saloon" for guys to get on the Tour team so expect monster performances by unexpected guys (and guys without a contract for next year).

Yeah, riders are always just riding zone 2 during the Dauphiné

 

[Rob5091]

Yeah, riders are always just riding zone 2 during the Dauphiné

That I did not say, but these guys are not going to race as it were the Tour . Also check the TV times if you want to watch live, as some stages start and finish early.

 

[Rackham]

I’m going:

1. Roglic in uninspiring fashion
2. Remco who I think is sandbagging
3. Ayuso

I agree on the bolded.

I also don't really get 'why' though. The real tell-tale sign was when he said he could ride domestique for Landa. I mean come on... considering Landa also ended Itzulia in an ambulance it's a pretty far-fetched scenario to assume Landa is somehow in good enough shape to win but Evenepoel isn't.

What does Evenepoel think might happen? Other teams will just let him ride away because he said he's not riding GC? I don't think so.

 

[tobydawq]

That I did not say, but these guys are not going to race as it were the Tour . Also check the TV times if you want to watch live, as some stages start and finish early.

I know to check TV times, this is not my first time watching cycling...

 

[tobydawq]

I agree on the bolded.

I also don't really get 'why' though. The real tell-tale sign was when he said he could ride domestique for Landa. I mean come on... considering Landa also ended Itzulia in an ambulance it's a pretty far-fetched scenario to assume Landa is somehow in good enough shape to win but Evenepoel isn't.

What does Evenepoel think might happen? Other teams will just let him ride away because he said he's not riding GC? I don't think so.

It's not like Remco normally lies directly into our faces, so I wouldn't be so sure that he is sandbagging.

 

[Rackham]

It's not like Remco normally lies directly into our faces, so I wouldn't be so sure that he is sandbagging.

Well, he sort of already did seriously sandbag before the Vuelta 2022: https://www.cyclingnews.com/feature...y-of-grand-tour-discovery-at-vuelta-a-espana/

"I’ve been training to do something good. A specific GC result is difficult to predict but if I can leave the Vuelta with a stage win or two, then it’d be a good Vuelta. Everything in the GC that comes would be extra," Evenepoel said recently, playing down his hopes.

I don't get why I should suddenly believe him. He's usually very good coming down from altitude as well. The only question mark is his recovery from his injuries. So we'll see.

 

[Berniece]

Well, he sort of already did seriously sandbag before the Vuelta 2022: https://www.cyclingnews.com/feature...y-of-grand-tour-discovery-at-vuelta-a-espana/



I don't get why I should suddenly believe him. He's usually very good coming down from altitude as well. The only question mark is his recovery from his injuries. So we'll see.

It was his first GT ever that he trained for properly. Last time he fell through in the Giro after 10 days. Why in the world would he claim he was going for the win? To then lose and get a shitstorm over him in the media.

 

[dazaau]

I agree on the bolded.

I also don't really get 'why' though. The real tell-tale sign was when he said he could ride domestique for Landa. I mean come on... considering Landa also ended Itzulia in an ambulance it's a pretty far-fetched scenario to assume Landa is somehow in good enough shape to win but Evenepoel isn't.

What does Evenepoel think might happen? Other teams will just let him ride away because he said he's not riding GC? I don't think so.

Well we have Remco riding for Landa and UAE saying Jonas is the favourite for the Tour and they need to watch Vlasov.

 

[Salvarani]

The Dauphiné can be misleading.

In 2008 Carlos Sastre finished 20th, twelve minutes behind Valverde.

In 2014 Nibali finished 7th after being dropped uphill several times.

The only certainty is that Jack Haig always finishes 5th or 27th.

Okay... but Wiggins, Froome, Thomas and Vingegaard all won it before winning the Tour. Looking at the last 15 years or so.

Yates second last year, 3rd in the Tour.

Vinge second in 2022, won the Tour.

Evans second in 2011, won the Tour.

Contador second in 2010, won the Tour (on the road at least).

Thats not even going through how many riders that finished top 10 in both the Dauphine and Tour the same year. I think it would be pretty common.

I would say it is a pretty good indicator of where a rider is at and that with a good performance it is likely they will do well in the Tour.

Saying that it is "misleading" is false imo. It more so depends on how they are building up and where they are at in their progress. What type of rider they are. Who they are.

Sastre for example was a GT-specialist. He hardly ever did any results at all in one-week races. 2006-2009 he was on a great run through every GT, so his win in 2008 was very deserved and he was one of the best at the time.

Nibali had some luck that everyone else crashed out or got injured, while also finding great form himself... but his biggest rival for the win was Peraud and a still relatively young Pinot. Nibali was also at his best in almost every GT during this period and had been since 2010. In 2014, he very much peaked for the Tour only and got a perfect scenario after a pretty mediocre season outside of the Tour.

Both of those are bad examples to that claim it can be "misleading". Both outliers and you are always gonna be able to find a couple of those, but claiming two great riders like this are outliers is also "weird" imo. Especially how proven they both were and that despite being mediocre before the Tour was seen as two big contenders.

 

[Rackham]

Well we have Remco riding for Landa and UAE saying Jonas is the favourite for the Tour and they need to watch Vlasov.

They're all equally full of sh*t as far as I'm concerned.

The favorites for the Dauphiné are Roglič & Evenepoel, then Ayuso & Rodriguez. The big unknown is how well Evenepoel has recovered from the crash. But the ITT will ensure he's there or thereabouts in the fight for the win.

As for the Tour, the number one favorite in a class of his own is Pogačar. Then on a tier beneath him I place a trio of Rog, Vingegaard & Evenepoel - for different reasons which amount to the same 'challenger' roles. Rog isn't expected to win but he's expected to compete for the podium. Evenepoel is in the same position. Vingegaard meanwhile has dropped down from the top tier because of his crash but he should still be at a high enough level if he's on the startlist to at least compete - a bit like in Paris-Nice last year.

But if Rog for example has a bad Dauphiné there will be no way to sugercoat it, i.e. it'll be concerning. Evenepoel is in a similar situation. There's a point where these riders simply have to 'deliver' what's expected of them.

This is it, aka game time.

 

[Salvarani]

They're all equally full of sh*t as far as I'm concerned.

The favorites for the Dauphiné are Roglič & Evenepoel, then Ayuso & Rodriguez. The big unknown is how well Evenepoel has recovered from the crash. But the ITT will ensure he's there or thereabouts in the fight for the win.

As for the Tour, the number one favorite in a class of his own is Pogačar. Then on a tier beneath him I place a trio of Rog, Vingegaard & Evenepoel - for different reasons which amount to the same 'challenger' roles. Rog isn't expected to win but he's expected to compete for the podium. Evenepoel is in the same position. Vingegaard meanwhile has dropped down from the top tier because of his crash but he should still be at a high enough level if he's on the startlist to at least compete - a bit like in Paris-Nice last year.

But if Rog for example has a bad Dauphiné there will be no way to sugercoat it, i.e. it'll be concerning. Evenepoel is in a similar situation. There's a point where these riders simply have to 'deliver' what's expected of them.

This is it, aka game time.

Roglic might need a race or he may not. It is how I see it.

Lets say he performs sub-par here... I still think he will come into great form for or during the Tour. Experience-wise and how solid he has been in GTs, outside of the DNFs, I dont see many reasons for concerns no matter how it goes here.

Only thing that would make me concerned is if he crashes again.

 

[Taxus4a]

Roglic, Rodriguez and Ayuso on podium in that order.

Yes, I didnt realized Roglic didnt have fractures and he was training just one week after the famous crash. Kuss didnt compete since Basque country as well, but anyway should be in a better shape and I dont think will be a big difference between them.

This edition is full of unkonws...that crash marked all this season and it is difficult to know how are people as Remco, Landa, Roglic,...

 

[Rackham]

Roglic might need a race or he may not. It is how I see it.

Lets say he performs sub-par here... I still think he will come into great form for or during the Tour. Experience-wise and how solid he has been in GTs, outside of the DNFs, I dont see many reasons for concerns no matter how it goes here.

Only thing that would make me concerned is if he crashes again.

An underperformance in the Dauphiné might make the political situation in Red Bull-Bora hansgrohe more difficult in the Tour. Rog would be well advised to at least beat Vlasov in the Dauphiné, otherwise...

There's also the management itself to consider, i.e. I was fine with Paris-Nice & his form there (or lack thereof) because it was easy to explain: first race in a new environment, bad weather, bad teamwork in the TTT & then bad clothing in the final stage. But apparently the team wasn't happy (& they expressed as much publicly), so I really want him to do well in this coming week just for sake of some peace of mind & stability before the Tour.

 

[Salvarani]

An underperformance in the Dauphiné might make the political situation in Red Bull-Bora hansgrohe more difficult in the Tour. Rog would be well advised to at least beat Vlasov in the Dauphiné, otherwise...

There's also the management itself to consider, i.e. I was fine with Paris-Nice & his form there (or lack thereof) because it was easy to explain: first race in a new environment, bad weather, bad teamwork in the TTT & then bad clothing in the final stage. But apparently the team wasn't happy (& they expressed as much publicly), so I really want him to do well in this coming week just for sake of some peace of mind & stability before the Tour.

I still see at as a reach/stretch that Vlasov and Roglic would somehow be on the same level in the hierarchy.

Management is just plain stupid if that would be the case. I dont think so.

Of course they might have been "unhappy" with the result in PN... but it doesnt mean they are not happy with Roglic or that his leadership in the Tour would be under threat, if he doesnt outperform Vlasov here. I dont interpret it that way at all.

I think a good result and something to build on is exactly what they are after here, for as you say... peace of mind and stability. I think other stuff is just talk with no substance to it as of now. Unless Vlasov goes full Vingegaard like in 2022, otherwise Roglic leadership status should be fine no matter what. Vlasov havent shown that type of level in 2021 (like Vinge before 2022) or previously for matter to be able to step up like that, so it would just be unwise from Bora to split leadership if Roglic is getting there and still just improving his form. Knowing his much higher level and ceiling. Unless again... Vlasov have shown some crazy level in training or something. I dont believe that.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Do we have a profile of the hill on the circuit today?

 

[CyclistAbi]

First week of Tour will be demanding, so Rogla and Bora both need to open up legs on this race.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

First week of Tour will be demanding, so Rogla and Bora both need to open up legs on this race.

I hope they're bringing a qualified surgeon then.

 

[Berniece]

First week of Tour will be demanding, so Rogla and Bora both need to open up legs on this race.

Isn’t the last week backloaded?

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Isn’t the last week backloaded?

You have to be at 100% for stages 2 and 4, as well as the gravel stage on day 9. The pace will be brutal, even if the stages aren't super hard. Those who go into the TdF undercooked will end up paying the price.

See the talk re: Vingegaard. They want him in monster shape at the start.

 

[shadowrider]

I agree on the bolded.

I also don't really get 'why' though. The real tell-tale sign was when he said he could ride domestique for Landa. I mean come on... considering Landa also ended Itzulia in an ambulance it's a pretty far-fetched scenario to assume Landa is somehow in good enough shape to win but Evenepoel isn't.

What does Evenepoel think might happen? Other teams will just let him ride away because he said he's not riding GC? I don't think so.

Of course he is NOT sandbagging. He never does. On the contrary. He often publishes his superdata, his KOM's when in shape. When he would be better off not doing that.
He revealed he was suffering a lot during the altitude training. On yesterdays pictures (of his face) one can notice he is at least 1 kg or 1,5 kg above his topshape weight. Evenepoel just has to work for his teammates Van Wilders and Landa (if in shape). After that, no more pushing in the final. Maybe go in a break when he is far behind in the GC.

 

[Rackham]

Of course he is NOT sandbagging. He never does. On the contrary. He often publishes his superdata, his KOM's when in shape. When he would be better off not doing that.
He revealed he was suffering a lot during the altitude training. On yesterdays pictures (of his face) one can notice he is at least 1 kg or 1,5 kg above his topshape weight. Evenepoel just has to work for his teammates Van Wilders and Landa (if in shape). After that, no more pushing in the final. Maybe go in a break when he is far behind in the GC.

If Evenepoel wins the Dauphiné you're going to go completely wild & say "he won the Dauphiné when he was totally off form & not even aiming for GC!" "TdF here we go!". I mean there's a middle ground, right? Evenepoel & his fans just have to accept he's one of the best & one of the favorites in every race he enters.

I mean if he's really 'off' here in the Dauphiné then it doesn't bode well for the Tour. The same applies to everyone else - including Rog.

 

[Berniece]

Evenepoel & his fans just have to accept he's one of the best & one of the favorites in every race he enters.

Sure, but if he says himself that he is going to play domestique for Van Wilder and Landa, as well as his coach saying he's not in the best shape, I tend to believe them, and not expect him to win this.

 

[Volderke]

If Evenepoel wins the Dauphiné you're going to go completely wild & say "he won the Dauphiné when he was totally off form & not even aiming for GC!" "TdF here we go!". I mean there's a middle ground, right? Evenepoel & his fans just have to accept he's one of the best & one of the favorites in every race he enters.

I mean if he's really 'off' here in the Dauphiné then it doesn't bode well for the Tour. The same applies to everyone else - including Rog.

Evenepoel is pure class on rolling terrain so I expect him to be in the mix in the TT, but he isn't a natural born climber and if not in great shape, he would have to force himself greatly to follow uphill (and there is nothing but uphill) to stay up there in the GC.

So even if he wins GC in Dauphine (zero % chance imho), I wouldn't applaud that, because I know he would have been waaay to deep to achieve this and it isn't improving his Tour shape.

 

[Netserk]

It's not like Remco normally lies directly into our faces, so I wouldn't be so sure that he is sandbagging.

I wouldn't say that sandbagging is lying "directly into our faces", but I do think he sandbags quite often.