Does Andy Schleck lack the mental ability to ever win the TDF?

[Cobblestones]

What I found baffling is that after each of Andy's "attacks" he started to zigzag, hoping that someone would come to the front and setting tempo. Every time, that gave a moment of respite to Voeckler, and probably Contador.

Leopard/Trek was for a while the only team with two riders in the lead group. Every other team in this situation would put the domestique in front. Not the Schlecks. It's ridiculous. They have to sacrifice one to set the tempo, then either they wait for someone to attack (and both Jelle and Sammy did) to follow and counterattack. Or at some point the other Schleck has to attack while the one setting tempo simply stops pedaling. That should disrupt the chase enough to give the attacker a few extra bike lengths and a better chance to stay away.

It seems neither brother is happy leaving the other behind. The'd only attack if both can follow. That means together, they'll always ride like the worse of the two. That's a pretty steep handicap.

 

[Angliru]

Ah, you meant Plateau de Beille. You said Luz-Ardiden. If you meant Plateau de Beille, you're right. On Luz-Ardiden Fränk gained 30-something seconds, Andy about 15 seconds on Voeckler.

My bad. Thanks for catching that.

 

[thehog]

Looks like Riis handed Alberto that statement and said go read this! Alberto is 100% correct. To win they have to sacrifice one of themselves. Unfortunately for the Shleck boys this will only add more pressure to them. Masterstroke.

In addition to all of that what I can’t understand about the statements being made by Andy is that can you ever imagine Lance berating the opposition for not attacking? Stating that Ullrich needs to attack so he can follow? Did LeMond ever say something to this nature? I really hope Fignon puts in a big attack so I can follow him and maybe we can gap Delgardo. Has Contador ever said that he hopes Andy attacks so he can gain time on Evans? Never. Before the Tour Andy was still telling us about chain-gate. After day 1 he was schooling Alberto on how ride at the front. On day 2 Andy and Frank were sitting on the Canc in the TTT and lovin’ life & thinking this winning the Tour thing is easy. The first uphill finish Andy lost 8 seconds but that didn’t matter because he’s not very good at steep climbs. On the first real mountain stage Andy tried some limp wristed attacks which got nowhere and now he’s schooling the field that they should attack more when he’s attacking them!.... and low and behold now the climb is not steep enough! Neither Andy nor Frank will win the Tour. I think that’s sinking home to them now and now Contador is schooling them.

Looks like they need some advice from Alberto himself (or for that matter, this board):


http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/contador-confident-to-be-better-in-the-alps-than-the-pyrenees

You are basically right. Kim Andersen says it a bit diplomatic but a better Alberto would trouble Frank, which gives Andy Carthe Blanché to focus on the race instead of Frank.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I'm talking grand tours, not just the Tour.

Contador (4):
2007 Tour
2008 Giro and Vuelta
2009 Tour

Andy(2*):
2010 Tour
*2011 Tour (not a given if he can't shake Evans and he has yet to show he can)

Andy still has a whole lot of catching up to do.

I wasn't the one who said it, though. I just responded to your question. I think it is completely unfair if they take away his 2011 wins, however. You never know how the race would've developed without him. Honestly, I'd rather see no stripping at all, and no ban as well. 6/7 grand Tours to 0/1 is so, so much nicer than 4 to 1/2... >: )

 

[Publicus]

I wouldn't question Andy's mental toughness yet. He was in position to win last year and suffered some bad luck. This year, I suspect he's just testing the waters, dipping his foot before diving right in. If he doesn't capitalize on an obviously subpar AC, I would question his mental toughness, but not just yet; they haven't even hit the Alps.

I don't think it will be easy to get rid of Evans though.

Certainly not the way he is attacking. That being said, given that others will need to start narrowing the gap considerably (Basso, Contador, etc.) if they want to have a shot a podium or the top step, then they are going to have to start racing to win. That means their teams will have to set pace (no more of O'Grady and Voigt grinding out a pace that they can handle) and that's really the only way to get Cuddles climbing ugly (that's when I know he's in trouble).

The risk of course is that they don't have the legs. I think they need AC to be stronger, but not too strong. Strong enough to help them distance their other rivals, but not strong enough to summarily drop them like a bad habit. Problem is, AC is starting to look a lot more comfortable (especially on Stage 15) and I think that bodes poorly for the Schlecks (he doesn't need to completely erase the deficit to them prior to Grenoble, just eat into it (maybe at around a minute)).

And the Schecks can't have anything go wrong, including any self-inflicted wounds like last year's shifting fiasco (that wasn't bad luck IMO).

 

[just some guy]

Best thing for Andys future is to lose the tour this year and lepo saying to him your not riding much with frÄnk next year and your doing the Giro and not the tour. Every race you go in you race to win.

Only way he will be a better stage racer is to race.

 

[BYOP88]

Best thing for Andys future is to lose the tour this year and lepo saying to him your not riding much with frÄnk next year and your doing the Giro and not the tour. Every race you go in you race to win.

Only way he will be a better stage racer is to race.

Well the only thing preventing that is, Andy and Frank are the bosses of Leotard-Shrek.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Best thing for Andys future is to lose the tour this year and lepo saying to him your not riding much with frÄnk next year and your doing the Giro and not the tour. Every race you go in you race to win.

Only way he will be a better stage racer is to race.

That would be the best, but of course LAY-oh-pard-Schleck isn't going to do that. Andy is their biggest chance to win, they will always let him ride. Personally, I think if Andy doesn't take part next year it will be benificial for himself, Fränk and maybe even Fuglsang, as he can develop himself as a GC-guy.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

I think they need AC to be stronger, but not too strong. Strong enough to help them distance their other rivals, but not strong enough to summarily drop them like a bad habit.

Completely agree with that. What Basso was saying about attacking from a small group, not a selection of 20, rings very true, and I think they need AC's climbing legs to help out. They didn't seem strong enough to decimate the field at all, at least not the way they need to. Like I said maybe they weren't trying to blow it up, and they're waiting for the Alps. If that's the case, it's totally different than what we've seen from contenders in the past: attempting to stamp out authority on the first MTF. It's also a very dangerous move.

 

[Publicus]

Completely agree with that. What Basso was saying about attacking from a small group, not a selection of 20, rings very true, and I think they need AC's climbing legs to help out. They didn't seem strong enough to decimate the field at all, at least not the way they need to. Like I said maybe they weren't trying to blow it up, and they're waiting for the Alps. If that's the case, it's totally different than what we've seen from contenders in the past: attempting to stamp out authority on the first MTF. It's also a very dangerous move.

As strong as folks seem to think Leopard Trek is, they are fairly weak in the mountains (sorry when you waste your whole team and the result is your rivals still have multiple teammates then your team didn't really do any damage). Especially when their best mountain domestique (Frank) is entertaining visions of being a podium finisher.

I still think this is Andy's TdF to lose, but so far they haven't given me any confidence that they know how to WIN. Maybe that confidence comes this week.

 

[knewcleardaze]

Maybe someone can shed some light on this for me.
Imagine this hypothetical.
There are say 4-6 strong climbers on a high mountain. They are well ahead of the peloton and any chase group. Why does not a rider that is feeling strong just accelerate on his own and go for the win? Is it necessary to have someone ride tempo for you? Does psychology play a big role?
I understand it's advantageous to have a team mate with you, should there be a mechanical and the like. I do not see drafting playing into this, or am I mistaken?

 

[BYOP88]

Maybe someone can shed some light on this for me.
Imagine this hypothetical.
There are say 4-6 strong climbers on a high mountain. They are well ahead of the peloton and any chase group. Why does not a rider that is feeling strong just accelerate on his own and go for the win? Is it necessary to have someone ride tempo for you? Does psychology play a big role?
I understand it's advantageous to have a team mate with you, should there be a mechanical and the like. I do not see drafting playing into this, or am I mistaken?

Some riders are scared that they'll go in the red and pop! Others are just used to following, hoping they can sneak a few seconds at the end of the stage and some fit in both categories.

EDIT: F/E Vino would attack regardless if he felt strong or not.

 

[thehog]

Maybe it's just me, but the way I see it F&A haven't been able to put away AC despite the Giro and the bad knee. Geez I would love to see that fluid, effcient, seemingly effortless pedaling style again! On the road Frank has put 35 secs into him and Andy 2, despite AC riding lame (for folks that understand what a lame horse looks like!)

Now they want to use him to drop their competition for them? What *** and what dreadful tatics. I hope it all backfires and Cadel who has Won a stage, Been there every time it counted and ridden incredibly consistently makes the grade. Plus I hope AC makes the podium and if a Schleck does it's Frank. He at least rides all year to win races, unlike Andy......

PFFFTTT!!!

Wouldn't worry too much about the Giro. When Alberto was coasting along in Italy Andy was on the p1ss and dancing in clubs until 2am at the ToC. Contador is way ahead.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Probably been said already, but, by September, the record books will probably show that Andy had the mental ability to win the 2010 Tour.

 

[Angliru]

Wouldn't worry too much about the Giro. When Alberto was coasting along in Italy Andy was on the p1ss and dancing in clubs until 2am at the ToC. Contador is way ahead.

I know you're kidding but what if Andy simply got complacent and over-confident knowing Contador wouldn't be at this best having the Giro in his legs. He already felt that he had bridged the talent gap at last year's Tour and continues to feel that the Tour was his and was stolen by, in his opinion, unsportsmanlike racing. Deep down he believes (IMO delusionally) that he would be the Tour defending champion if not for that one incident.

 

[Frihed89]

Lack of self confidence, so far

That's what it looks like + he seems to be rationalizing his behavior with tactical mumbo-jumbo. Wonder where he learned that. His behavior and his explanations don't fit the mantle of a TDF winner, at all. Or has the TDF really come to this? Is it like men's singles in tennis where the equipment and training completely defeated the staggering grace of the volley and serve as the strategy f winners. And maybe the possible decline in performance enhancing chemical compounds and procedures is playing a role, too.

Contador and Andy are signing, partially, the same tune when they say they are waiting for the Alps. But Contador hasn't shown the strength and Andy has lacked the will to attack in Pyrenees. Based on that, I think we'll see the same Andy, but possibly not the same Contador in the 2 remaining MTFs.

I would be happy to see Voekler win, but I think Evans has to be my favorite based on what Contador and Frank have been doing (not doing) on the mountain stages so far.

What if Voekler attacks on one or both MTFs? No seems to think he needs to or has got in him. But no one would have dreamed that he been in yellow jersey, either so late in the race once he snatched.

 

[Angliru]

That's what it looks like + he seems to be rationalizing his behavior with tactical mumbo-jumbo. Wonder where he learned that. His behavior and his explanations don't fit the mantle of a TDF winner, at all. Or has the TDF really come to this? Is it like men's singles in tennis where the equipment and training completely defeated the staggering grace of the volley and serve as the strategy f winners. And maybe the possible decline in performance enhancing chemical compounds and procedures is playing a role, too.

Contador and Andy are signing, partially, the same tune when they say they are waiting for the Alps. But Contador hasn't shown the strength and Andy has lacked the will to attack in Pyrenees. Based on that, I think we'll see the same Andy, but possibly not the same Contador in the 2 remaining MTFs.

I would be happy to see Voekler win, but I think Evans has to be my favorite based on what Contador and Frank have been doing (not doing) on the mountain stages so far.

What if Voekler attacks on one or both MTFs? No seems to think he needs to or has got in him. But no one would have dreamed that he been in yellow jersey, either so late in the race once he snatched.

If Voeckler is secretly hoping that his form holds and he can continue climbing with the best then he will need to pad his advantage over Evans. He is likely to lose at least 2 minutes to Evans in the ITT unless he has the ITT of his life.

 

[thehog]

I know you're kidding but what if Andy simply got complacent and over-confident knowing Contador wouldn't be at this best having the Giro in his legs. He already felt that he had bridged the talent gap at last year's Tour and continues to feel that the Tour was his and was stolen by, in his opinion, unsportsmanlike racing. Deep down he believes (IMO delusionally) that he would be the Tour defending champion if not for that one incident.

I'm not joking. Looking back Andy was booted from the Vuelta for his drinking and the reports from the ToC were much the same. Hardly the behaviour from a Tour winner. If that was Ullrich he would be universally panned.

 

[Jeanne]

I know you're kidding but what if Andy simply got complacent and over-confident knowing Contador wouldn't be at this best having the Giro in his legs. He already felt that he had bridged the talent gap at last year's Tour and continues to feel that the Tour was his and was stolen by, in his opinion, unsportsmanlike racing. Deep down he believes (IMO delusionally) that he would be the Tour defending champion if not for that one incident.

That is exactly what I've been thinking for quite a long time already. Not kiddin. That's what Andys behavior makes me think.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

As strong as folks seem to think Leopard Trek is, they are fairly week in the mountains (sorry when you waste your whole team and the result is your rivals still have multiple teammates then your team didn't really do any damage). Especially when their best mountain domestique (Frank) is entertaining visions of being a podium finisher.

I still think this is Andy's TdF to lose, but so far they haven't given me any confidence that they know how to WIN. Maybe that confidence comes this week.

Agreed. Their strategy seems to keep the Schlecklet safe and let them trade attacks once they get in the mountains, like they don't even need mountain domestiques. They are a formidable pair, but the strategy won't work if they put out the least work necessary to gain an advantage. I firmly believe they are just treading the waters at this point, and we'll see some real attacks in the alps. I think they know more than most are giving them credit. If these time gaps stay relatively the same heading into the TT, well, I think we're looking at Evans in Yellow, Schleck the elder in second, and Schleck the younger in a very fortunate third (narrowly holding off AC). Either way a failure for the Schlecklet; at that point I WILL question their ability to win.

 

[rides like a girl]

Agreed. Their strategy seems to keep the Schlecklet safe and let them trade attacks once they get in the mountains, like they don't even need mountain domestiques. They are a formidable pair, but the strategy won't work if they put out the least work necessary to gain an advantage. I firmly believe they are just treading the waters at this point, and we'll see some real attacks in the alps. I think they know more than most are giving them credit. If these time gaps stay relatively the same heading into the TT, well, I think we're looking at Evans in Yellow, Schleck the elder in second, and Schleck the younger in a very fortunate third (narrowly holding off AC). Either way a failure for the Schlecklet; at that point I WILL question their ability to win.

Not sure I have the answer, but based on what I have seen this year and last, not sure they have a strategy, have learned from last year or know more this year. Based on what I saw last year. Watching stage 15 from last year again today, chain gate stage. As the group is going up the Port de Bales, Andy used Chris A Sorenson, Nicki Sorenson and Jacob Fugelsong to set a pace at the beginning of the mountain. Mainly CAS. CAS was the one who set a high tempo that broke up the group a bit. Not much, but a bit That is when Andy attacked. Then his chain fell off. Andy used CAS to set a high pace to set up his attack.

Seemingly the Schlecks again have no one to set a pace and get them to a point to attack. They are worse off than last year when Andy was often alone with the Astana mountain goats going up hills. LeOard Trek knew they didn't have CAS and so far didn't seem to have a plan to get them up the hills. They had a perfect opportunity to dislodge AC and they didn't. Neither one of them would set a high enough pace to hurt AC and drop him.

They get to the hills by running thru their team, yet can't set a pace high enough in the hills with what they have in their team to get rid of the diesels and launch their attacks. They are again looking for other teams to do the pace work to get the select group that Basso talks about. No other team is going to help them. Lacking a strategy to dislodge Cadel, Basso, AC and Tommy V. they look lost.

Perhaps they will surprise me and in the Alps they will use one brother to pace the other up the hill and dislodge diesels, Tommy V and AC. They could launch an attack set up by that high tempo. That would mean that one brother would have to sacrifice his ambitions and GC spot for this plan to work. I just don't see one brother making that decision, a decision that would mean both cannot land on the podium.

Short of hitching a ride on AC's team of spanish mountain goats and CAS in the Alps if they set a high pace to dislodge the diesels, that is a big if, not sure AC feels well enough to use his team this way. I cannot see how the Schlecks break up the group with just the two of them making small attacks while both fighting for a podium spot.

Another interesting thing from stage 15 last year, chain gate, was won by Tommy V. Perhaps getting a win from a Schleck miscue. Interesting that this year Tommy V got his lead on a stage that Thor, Fabian and seemingly Andy (he clapped his hands high overhead as it was happening) agreed to partially neutralize. A Schleck miscue could again give the win to Tommy V.

 

[Marcuccio]

I some times wonder if both brothers would ride better if they were on different teams..

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

He's still a young rider and its a young team, maybe thats the problem. Maybe its too early. Theyre learning.

One thing Andy needs to learn is to act with killer instinct. He clearly does not have it yet.

 

[ustabe]

He already felt that he had bridged the talent gap at last year's Tour and continues to feel that the Tour was his and was stolen by, in his opinion, unsportsmanlike racing. Deep down he believes (IMO delusionally) that he would be the Tour defending champion if not for that one incident.

So what is Andy doing to set himself up as the defending Tour champion in 2012? Rope-a-dope at this stage of his career is not inspiring.

 

[woodburn]

In addition to all of that what I can’t understand about the statements being made by Andy is that can you ever imagine Lance berating the opposition for not attacking? Stating that Ullrich needs to attack so he can follow? Did LeMond ever say something to this nature? I really hope Fignon puts in a big attack so I can follow him and maybe we can gap Delgardo.

LeMond did need Parra to attack on Luz Ardiden to break Chiappucci in 90.