Doping In Athletics

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40279-017-0765-4

Doping prevalence at Worlds 2011 estimated to be 39.4-47.9%
at Pan Arab games 2011 estimated to be 52.4-61.8%

Once we're at those levels, doesn't it follow that it's basically ubiquitous? i.e. close to 100%, simply because the level of (doped) competition makes it impossible to even be there without doping.

That depends. Doping doesn't affect everyone the same. While the old adage of "only the poor athletes dope to keep up with the best" is clearly rubbish, there will be a section of athletes who fall in this bracket.

Obviously there is also a section of athletes at the opposite end who dope and are the best (we'll never know if they would be the best in a level playing field, plus it's kind of irrelevant).

It hinges on whether you believe someone can get to the World Championships without doping. I think that a talented athlete could (it might be country dependent, not a nationalism thing, just a level of competition for WC spots thing) but I'm unconvinced they could compete at the pointy end of the competition.

 

[Catwhoorg]

Slice out the medalists (which wasn't done) and compare the top #3 at each event to the participants.

That would answer that question.

My belief is that medalists would be significantly higher in percentage terms, (probably not 100%) but obviously there is no data to confirm or deny.

 

[thehog]

Re:

Slice out the medalists (which wasn't done) and compare the top #3 at each event to the participants.

That would answer that question.

My belief is that medalists would be significantly higher in percentage terms, (probably not 100%) but obviously there is no data to confirm or deny.

I would say finalists in major championships, all would be doping.

 

[Catwhoorg]

I really hope that if such a study is done again, the ask deep enough questions to determine finalists or medalists.

 

[wansteadimp]

Re:

I really hope that if such a study is done again, the ask deep enough questions to determine finalists or medalists.

It won't be done again, WADA commissioned it and the IAAF tried their hardest block it.

WADA won't be causing trouble for themselves (and their funders) by commissioning something similar.

 

[King Boonen]

Re:

I really hope that if such a study is done again, the ask deep enough questions to determine finalists or medalists.

I'm not sure how possible that is with randomised response surveys?

 

[Catwhoorg]

As far as I understand it*, its possible, but requires some detail advance set-up.

*No where near advanced enough a statistician to describe how its done though.

 

[SeriousSam]

The basic problem is, how do you encourage people to tell the truth? You need to protect them from the negative consequences of doing so.

This survey uses a clever strategy to make it happen. By introducing a chance that the answer to the doping question is "yes" whether they are doping or not, individuals can be truthful when asked whether they've been doping without their "yes" necessarily indicating that they've been doping.

Even if anonymity would be compromised and the data would be hacked, seeing in that data that an athlete answered "yes" would not be a confession. Because there's a fixed chance, by design, that the response would be "yes" regardless.

Yet when we want to know the fraction of athletes that dope, we can just subtract the noise probability from the fraction of people saying "yes", and that will be an unbiased estimate of the fraction that dopes, provided this setup makes individuals answer truthfully (More realistically, it merely reduces the bias the downwards bias by reducing, but not eliminating, lying).


The statistical cost of this procedure is that the estimator becomes noisier, but with a large enough sample, that doesn't matter.

In theory, you could do the same thing asking just medallists, but because the sample is much smaller, the noise problem would be worse, and in addition, because the sample is smaller and easily googable and recognisable, it might invite unwelcome public speculation about which individuals, if x% of them dope, are the dopers.

Anticipating this, medallists would be more likely to lie regardless of the setup.

 

[King Boonen]

Thanks SS, that was my understanding of it. It might work for finalists and medalists if the sample is large enough (not sure how big it has to be), but the incentive to lie and lower the percentage is greater as it's a smaller group, it's defined and easier to point fingers at.

 

[Catwhoorg]

Years ago, the basic premise of these was go into a booth.
Toss a coin/roll a die
Heads answer the question part A (doping or whatever sensitive subject)
Tails answer the question part B (did the coin land on tails)

Things have got a bit more sophisticated and a lot of these are done electronically and automatically.

 

[mrhender]

I heard the head of ADD (antidoping Denmark) comment on the survey today.

He said the usual stuff:

-Things was bad back then
-Bad leadership back then
-no proper testing back then
-It was to be expected that we would find past issues

It's funny how ,whenever these things come up, it's always a thing of the past.

 

[Catwhoorg]

2011 old dirty dopers like Bolt, Rudisha, Farah, not like the clean generation of 2015/2017 of Gatlin, Bolt, Rudisha and Farah.

 

[idunno]

https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/olympian-fined-for-steroid-sale-ng-b88592046z

“behaved out of character” when he illegally sold anabolic steroids..."

 

[Robert5091]

Not only is dope an IOC probelm -

http://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/41248774

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has been accused of "doing nothing" about its growing corruption crisis, by senior official *** Pound.

Several IOC officials have been implicated in corruption in 2017.

In the latest case, police last week raided the home of Carlos Nuzman, head of the Brazilian Olympic Committee, as they investigate "strong evidence" of vote-buying to secure Rio's 2016 bid.

"We've taken a severe hit in terms of credibility," Pound told BBC Sport.

"Every time another IOC member is implicated in something potentially nefarious we lose more credibility."

On Monday, IOC president Thomas Bach said the organisation would act on corruption allegations "once evidence is there".

But Canadian Pound, speaking to the BBC's Alex Capstick at an IOC executive board meeting in Lima, Peru, said: "What are we doing taking all these hits and doing nothing about it? We've got to recognise that we haven't done enough.

"If your conduct has put the IOC into disrepute, you should be liable to at least vigorous investigation and potentially sanctioned for it.

"That has not happened."

 

[Benotti69]

Re:

Not only is dope an IOC probelm -

http://www.bbc.com/sport/olympics/41248774

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has been accused of "doing nothing" about its growing corruption crisis, by senior official **** Pound.

Several IOC officials have been implicated in corruption in 2017.

In the latest case, police last week raided the home of Carlos Nuzman, head of the Brazilian Olympic Committee, as they investigate "strong evidence" of vote-buying to secure Rio's 2016 bid.

"We've taken a severe hit in terms of credibility," Pound told BBC Sport.

"Every time another IOC member is implicated in something potentially nefarious we lose more credibility."

On Monday, IOC president Thomas Bach said the organisation would act on corruption allegations "once evidence is there".

But Canadian Pound, speaking to the BBC's Alex Capstick at an IOC executive board meeting in Lima, Peru, said: "What are we doing taking all these hits and doing nothing about it? We've got to recognise that we haven't done enough.

"If your conduct has put the IOC into disrepute, you should be liable to at least vigorous investigation and potentially sanctioned for it.

"That has not happened."

*** Pound is not part any clean solution to sport. Pound said Coe was the man to clean up IAAF??

Coe thinks Federations have 'a role to play' in keeping sport clean! FFS, 'a role to play'.....idiot!

 

[Robert5091]

'dirtiest race in history'

http://www.bbc.com/sport/athletics/41371579
'dirtiest race in history'

Former Olympic 1500m champion Asli Cakir Alptekin has been banned for life after a third doping offence.

In 2015, the 32-year-old was stripped of her 2012 Olympic and European titles and suspended for eight years by the Turkish Athletics Federation.

She returned this year after the ban was halved and its start date backdated to 2013, but has since reoffended.

"We are never, ever going to allow doping," said Turkish Athletics Federation chief Fatih Cintimar.

Six of the first nine finishers in the women's 1500m final at the 2012 Olympics have been given drugs bans, leading some to refer to it as the "dirtiest race in history".

Straight after the race, Britain's Lisa Dobriskey, who finished 10th, told BBC Radio 5 live: "I don't believe I'm competing on a level playing field."

Cakir Alptekin previously served a two-year ban following a positive test at the 2004 World Junior Championships.

She finished 11th in the European Champion Clubs Cup Cross Country event in Portugal in February, helping Uskudar Belediyespor win the title.

The nature of her latest offence has not been made public.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re: 'dirtiest race in history'

http://www.bbc.com/sport/athletics/41371579
'dirtiest race in history'

Former Olympic 1500m champion Asli Cakir Alptekin has been banned for life after a third doping offence.

In 2015, the 32-year-old was stripped of her 2012 Olympic and European titles and suspended for eight years by the Turkish Athletics Federation.

She returned this year after the ban was halved and its start date backdated to 2013, but has since reoffended.

"We are never, ever going to allow doping," said Turkish Athletics Federation chief Fatih Cintimar.

Six of the first nine finishers in the women's 1500m final at the 2012 Olympics have been given drugs bans, leading some to refer to it as the "dirtiest race in history".

Straight after the race, Britain's Lisa Dobriskey, who finished 10th, told BBC Radio 5 live: "I don't believe I'm competing on a level playing field."

Cakir Alptekin previously served a two-year ban following a positive test at the 2004 World Junior Championships.

She finished 11th in the European Champion Clubs Cup Cross Country event in Portugal in February, helping Uskudar Belediyespor win the title.

The nature of her latest offence has not been made public.

Dirtiest race in history is probably the Seoul 1988 100m men's final...

 

[Robert5091]

A sad state of affairs when we can argue about the dirtiest race in history.

 

[idunno]

http://olympstats.com/2017/09/26/2008-12-olympic-doping-re-test-an-update-update/

The reshuffling of Olympic results...comical.

 

[The Hitch]

Re: 'dirtiest race in history'

http://www.bbc.com/sport/athletics/41371579
'dirtiest race in history'

Former Olympic 1500m champion Asli Cakir Alptekin has been banned for life after a third doping offence.

In 2015, the 32-year-old was stripped of her 2012 Olympic and European titles and suspended for eight years by the Turkish Athletics Federation.

She returned this year after the ban was halved and its start date backdated to 2013, but has since reoffended.

"We are never, ever going to allow doping," said Turkish Athletics Federation chief Fatih Cintimar.

Six of the first nine finishers in the women's 1500m final at the 2012 Olympics have been given drugs bans, leading some to refer to it as the "dirtiest race in history".

Straight after the race, Britain's Lisa Dobriskey, who finished 10th, told BBC Radio 5 live: "I don't believe I'm competing on a level playing field."

Cakir Alptekin previously served a two-year ban following a positive test at the 2004 World Junior Championships.

She finished 11th in the European Champion Clubs Cup Cross Country event in Portugal in February, helping Uskudar Belediyespor win the title.

The nature of her latest offence has not been made public.

Dirtiest race in history is probably the Seoul 1988 100m men's final...

Several of the bolt world and olympic finals are way more dodgy in my eyes. That 2012 800m and some of the city marathon races from the 2009-2015 period as well

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Brits don't dope
http://www.bbc.com/sport/athletics/41471489

s/he who has no sin launch the first javelin.

 

[noddy69]

Had to smile at this bit from Coe: “Let our imagination run wild,” he proclaimed, warning that purists mightn’t relish athletics being part of the entertainment business but that’s the reality.

Other highlights for me :
Track and field isn’t alone in fighting such cynicism but it is at the forefront of its impact. Anyone able to watch top-flight international athletics entirely at face value has clearly had their credulity gland removed.
and
But athletics needs such a flip. It also needs to acknowledge that for much of the public it has been reduced to little more than a game of guess the pharmaceutical cheat

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/other-sports/athletics-isn-t-staying-relevant-it-s-chasing-relevance-1.3256756

 

[armchairclimber]

European 5000m Champion nicked in doping related raid. https://www.thelocal.es/20171025/european-5000m-champion-arrested-in-spanish-doping-raid

 

[masking_agent]

Is the world ever going to find out the truth about Usain Bolt ? or are we witnessing ANOTHER greatest sports cover up ever ? Anything that raises eyebrows in the recent past that anyone has come across ? I'd love to know. thx

 

[noddy69]

http://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/was-sonia-osullivan-cheated-back-in-1993-461530.html

Was Sonia cheated ? Maybe the headline should read were the Chinese doping ? Simple answer is yes...was Sonia doping too ....harder to answer