Cloxxki said:
I cannot imagine a dimension in which Johaug and Bjoergen BOTH lose 2 minutes in ski prep over 10km. They did have a bit more snow and wear on the tracks. Let's say that was worth 10 seconds.
But, Johaug and Bjoergen were not really racing. You can tell by how they calmly take off their skis as if they'd just done an easy sprint qualifier.
Weng beats them both I think, having started with similar start number.
Well, there you've got the double factor, one that if the skis aren't letting you get the power down properly you can't always necessarily go that deep. At the Olympic relay last year, when Johaug crossed the line on those joke skis that had huge clumps of ice stuck to the bottom, the group with her were sprawling out on the floor, Therese was able to take her skis off and walk off complaining; there there's no way she wasn't going all out. Here, once the skis were clearly no good and the podium was gone, it's an individual race, not a team one; if the skis are bad there's no possibility the race can be salvaged by somebody else having a better day etc., so you may as well ease up and preserve energy for the fight at the podium elsewhere. If anything, Kalla may be disappointed that the Norwegians had such bad skis, because the day she was on, she would have been hard to beat anyway, and then the Norwegians would have gone deeper; as it is, Kalla went all out for a time that in the end was a huge outlier and she needn't have given it her all - she could still have won with a lesser performance. She of course wasn't to know that.
Johaug should have an advantage over Bjoergen, more than her result showed, over soft snow. Johaug was slacking. Broken by strong splits from Kalla on slightly quicker snow with slightly faster skis makes sense. Kalla IS as good as it gets over 10km freestyle, and has home advantage of ski prep (lots of locals may have been spotting the weather and tracks). If Kalla goes out hard, no way Johaug or even Bjoergen on thicker snow can match that. It breaks them.
That said, Diggins seems to be the one outlier next to Kalla. Similar start number, slightly better snow, corrected to ~1 minute off Kalla's performance. If she did get the same intel for a ski prep to use as did Kalla, Kalla's time seems less extraterrestrial.
Gregg, she was just lucky. Put in a solid ski on the freshes tracks of the day. Not sure if pacing makes a difference on deteriorating tracks but she'll not have put a ski wrong. 1 minute 20 faster tracks than Diggins, 1m30 vs Kalla? Then still you can call he an outlier here I suppose.
Perhaps skis DO explain the podium them.
But, how did other Swedes do? Not stellar I think.
Johaug and Bjoergen slacking makes this result look crazier than it really was. On same ski prep as Kalla, I could see Johaug holding on better and not giving up, getting second. She may well have throw a full minute or more there. Even a bronze, with the skis she had on.
There is a chance, and I kind of hope it to be true, that the Swedes as organizers have found ways to get back t the Norweegians always publically belitteling them. Say, start rumors that there will be police raids of waxing cabins, other vehicles, and rooms. I've heard of XC runners packing their bag and racing home when a rumor of anti-doping controls was presented to them. And it's been documented on this forum of even master cyclists avoiding in-competition tests by just getting the heck out of there.
If I were the Swedes, I'd make the life of the Norwegians as difficult as possible. Maybe let electricity fail in their hotel (no freezers). Let a police bus be parked there when they get back from racing. Etc, etc.
That said, it didn't work on the sprint teams. Theories, theories....[/QUOTE]