ToreBear said:Sciatic said:Torebear,
The logic and suppositions you've been making these past few stages is stunning.
For one thing, you're talking as though not only are some of the athletes in the suspicious group probably clean, but that skiers below the threshhold for "suspicious" are almost certainly clean.
Here's the description for the article: "The baseline for abnormal is any score that has less than a one in 100 chance of being natural. Many athletes were far beyond that point."
Another way to say this is that if you have 50 skiers in a race and they all have blood values that have a 1 in 50 chance of being "not doping." NONE would be on the suspicious list. But if you couldd give them all truth serum, you would learn that (on a statistical average) 49 of the 50 had indeed doped, and just one skier had the abnormal values due to a natural cause. But your logic would say "this was a clean race."
The problem is I do not believe in the the numbers that they have. For example Sødergren said that before there was a standard, there were a lot of variations in how the test were conducted. Sometimes they would take a second test on the spot because they did something wrong, other times they used the average of the two readings.
Hence these numbers prior to 2004-2005 are worthless without their context. The context is likely not in the available data, but is available to Fis/Wada probably in other files.
Aditionally I have learned that the "experts" are far to sure about their own science. They do not understand how small a part of the human body sciences actually understands. IIRC there was a case where Sachenbacher Stehle had weird values. This started a case, with Saltin saying her values where impossible. Finally Saltin agreed to monitor Stehle while on training camp. And guess what the weird values reappeared. Meaning this was the result of something the experts had no idea about.
So in my mind I would say 1/100 group is within normal range. 1/1000 is deviation and 1/10000 is suspicious. Though this is specifically for interpretation of this data set.
There is nothing to see here guys, the Iraqi Information minister or Norway has told you all the truth and nothing but the thruth once again.