Dumoulin.

[Nomad]

Re: Re:

the 1993 stage should not be used to compare, it was at the end of the third week of a super hard typical '90's Giro

the '99 stage is similar enough, even if the days before that stage were harder, the peloton was still on EPO with no test other than the 50% rule, clean riders shouldn't be anywhere near those times even if it was a TT on the first day.

I don't think anyone here is suggesting TD is clean. The question for me is does he have an unfair advantage over Quintana or the other GC contenders? I don't think so. The interesting part is with the modern doping controls, blood passport, EPO tests etc , that times can still be close to 1999. Does anyone have Watts / Kg numbers for today?

2 programs being similar, the big guys has an advantage over the small guys. We could be seeing that with TD and with Froome.

There was an interest read about why the big riders benefit more over the small riders with the Oxygen vectors. If I see it I'll put it here.

If you have any references on that please post - I'm very intetested. I've wondered if it's more muscle mass that allows for a more efficient cellular intake from oxygen for some riders utilizing 02-vector doping. I was always amazed at that monster Indurain at ~176 lbs climbing as efficiently as some of the more smaller, dimuinitive climbing specialists. Any other heavier GT winners, say over 165 - 170 lbs? (Though he never won a GT, wasn't Colombian climber Santiago Botero something like 180 lbs?).

 

[classicomano]

Not so marginal gains.

 

[red_flanders]

Re: Re:

I find it amazing that anyone could imagine that the difference in how riders look after races comes from better training. If there is such a difference that's it's visible, that riders are notably less drained, it is a massive difference.

What do people imagine riders were doing in the 80's? Drinking beer all night and eating pizzas all day, only getting up for races?

I tend to suspect people have no idea how hard riders used to train. Recency bias seems strong.

Hyperbole at its finest. Like there is no grey area between drinking beer & eating pizza's and today's training. I tend to suspect you dont understand the difference between hard training and hard training + science.

I find it amazing that this is even a discussion.[/quote]

The point was to exaggerate to a point where obviously no one believed that, to make a point. Is the training better now? Sure, things advance. Is it as much of a difference as some have been clowned into believing? No, not even close.

People started looking un-tired after races in the early to mid nineties, all of a sudden. There was no magic training bullet which caused this, it was EPO and recovery drugs. If you think it's training now, that training has caught up with EPO, be my guest. I don't find it a very informed or realistic view, personally, if that is in fact your view.

Far greater a factor actually is the change in gears used. Back in the earlier days they used much larger gears, and put the stress on the musculature. This tired people out in a certain way. In the nineties EPO shifted the stress more to the cardio-pulmonary system, letting people use smaller gears and recover more easily. But you can't do that without oxygen processing enhancement, it's not magical training. Training is different now, but more different than it is better.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Well, now we know.

Yep. Too big a pill to swallow...

 

[GraftPunk]

I'm curious, as there are white knights jumping to Tom D's defense, but does anyone posting actually think he's clean? Now would be the time to show your ass for posterity.

 

[Craigee]

Re: Re:

People like to mention thee fact that he was always talented, but you also have to remember that he never was a great climber in the U23 ranks, other guys with big engines like Laengen and Matthews were pretty good climbers back then, Tom on the other hand never performed on that level as climber before turning pro.

Correct- really it wasn't until the 2015 Tour de Suisse when people started noticing his potential. Then the stage win in the Vuelta that sparked the creation of this thread showed he had gone nuclear.

Sorry, but i don't think this is accurate at all. He was one of the most promising youth prospects early on. Climbing wise he was more or less on the same level as Laengen back in his junior days. And this was a "near-to-the-top level". He already performed exceptionally well in TTs in his amateur days and did also really good at hilly one day races. Also his first season with Argos Shimano (at the age of 21) can be considered as absolutely promising (finishing 6th in Vuelta Andalucia, 17th in Strade Bianchi, 5th in Rund um Köln, 5th in Tour de Luxembourg and 10thin Vuelta a Burgos - all races with at least hilly terrain). 2013 (at the age of 22) he finished 6th at a Tour mountain stage from a break of 27 outclimbing the likes of Navarro, De Gendt, Roche, Voeckler, Velits, Trofimov, ... and 18th in Lombardia. From then on he pretty much progressed every year. Saying Dumoulin came out of nowhere, is like saying every winner of a bike race today is coming out of nowhere. I can really only think of a handful riders winning and therefore showing potential substantially more in their youth days (=U23) in recent years (Sagan and Sicard and maybe the Yates brothers, maybe Quintana, maybe Lopez, maybe Pinot, maybe Formolo). However, this is always kind of hard to compare.

What i want to say is - Dumoulin is not coming out of nowhere at all. Reminds a bit of the Giro Doping Thread where one guy asked yesterday - "where is this Gaviria guy coming from?"

I am of course convinced Dumoulin does what it takes to win.

I wouldn't compare what Dumoulin and Gaviria are doing. Yes Gaviria has worked only a short few years to gain the endurance needed to perform at the finish of a grand tour race but you are born with speed. Almost all doping is for improved endurance.

 

[42x16ss]

Second only to Pantani on Oropa

http://www.climbing-records.com/2017/05/new-top-50-oropa-closer-to-pantani.html?m=1

 

[IndianCyclist]

i expect him to release all his data after the Giro to counteract the suspicions.
Since he is the leader , he would be tested everyday. That should give the blood profile variation across the Giro. Also lets see what his performance is in the multi mountain stages.

 

[Fernandez]

Re:

I'm curious, as there are white knights jumping to Tom D's defense, but does anyone posting actually think he's clean? Now would be the time to show your *** for posterity.

I believe he is clean. In fact I believe all are clean meanwhile they arent caught in positive tests. I think its the way you should watch cycling. If you prefer to watch it thinking that all are cheating, then you have a problem.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I'm curious, as there are white knights jumping to Tom D's defense, but does anyone posting actually think he's clean? Now would be the time to show your *** for posterity.

As one of his bigger fans, I think he's on rocket fuel.

I generally think there's something new most of the peloton is using, as climbing times are through the roof compared to the last few years, and Dumoulin is probably on it too.

 

[ontheroad]

As one of my favourite current rider's, seeing Tom time trial back to and then sail past Quintana yesterday on Oropa was still one of those shake the head, not normal sort of moments. I can admire the rider because he has got style on a bike and charisma off it, but the performance still doesn't add up to me. Seeing a big guy like Dumoulin sail past diminutive little specialist climbers on a mountain defies the logic of Science.

I think we are seeing a guy that will go on to dominate grand tour GC over the next 5/6 years. If he takes a leaf from the Froome book, he will try and make it a bit more believable in the 3rd week and maybe lose a couple of minutes, still knowing that any sort of lead will guarantee him victory before the final TT.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I'm curious, as there are white knights jumping to Tom D's defense, but does anyone posting actually think he's clean? Now would be the time to show your *** for posterity.

I have a caveated answer to this. He's been one of the best TTists in the world for over three years now; perhaps alongside TdF Froome, the absolute best on hilly courses. And in many ways time trials are the discipline where a great doping program will translate most directly into wins. Almost no tactics and no rivals to worry about; just about pure watts and aerodynamics. (in fairness, he does have a great position on the TT bike as well, but that's only going to win if you're pushing 450+ watts). That alone waves huge red flags and makes me very suspicious of him.

But TTing his way up a couple of MTFs on otherwise easy stages, and following active recovery days, doesn't greatly add to that suspicion for me. It's the multi-mountain stages where he has to follow changes of rhythm on the early climbs to stay at the front of the race, which will reveal if he has moved to the 'next level' imo. If he can follow the changes in pace of Nibali or Quintana early in a stage and then still TT up the final climb at threshold, then it really will be Froome v2.

 

[42x16ss]

Re: Re:

I'm curious, as there are white knights jumping to Tom D's defense, but does anyone posting actually think he's clean? Now would be the time to show your *** for posterity.

I believe he is clean. In fact I believe all are clean meanwhile they arent caught in positive tests. I think its the way you should watch cycling. If you prefer to watch it thinking that all are cheating, then you have a problem.

Pantani never tested positive...

 

[Fernandez]

Re: Re:

I'm curious, as there are white knights jumping to Tom D's defense, but does anyone posting actually think he's clean? Now would be the time to show your *** for posterity.

I believe he is clean. In fact I believe all are clean meanwhile they arent caught in positive tests. I think its the way you should watch cycling. If you prefer to watch it thinking that all are cheating, then you have a problem.

Pantani never tested positive...

I meant nowadays. Still, I have to recognise my serious doubts about performances. For example Astana´s in the two past Giros, Cobo, Horner, etc. But I believe in general terms cycling is clean; at least all clean it can be.

 

[Bolder]

Re: Re:

I'm curious, as there are white knights jumping to Tom D's defense, but does anyone posting actually think he's clean? Now would be the time to show your *** for posterity.

I have a caveated answer to this. He's been one of the best TTists in the world for over three years now; perhaps alongside TdF Froome, the absolute best on hilly courses. And in many ways time trials are the discipline where a great doping program will translate most directly into wins. Almost no tactics and no rivals to worry about; just about pure watts and aerodynamics. (in fairness, he does have a great position on the TT bike as well, but that's only going to win if you're pushing 450+ watts). That alone waves huge red flags and makes me very suspicious of him.

But TTing his way up a couple of MTFs on otherwise easy stages, and following active recovery days, doesn't greatly add to that suspicion for me. It's the multi-mountain stages where he has to follow changes of rhythm on the early climbs to stay at the front of the race, which will reveal if he has moved to the 'next level' imo. If he can follow the changes in pace of Nibali or Quintana early in a stage and then still TT up the final climb at threshold, then it really will be Froome v2.

This is a reasoned response.

"Clean" is not really a word you can say with a straight face about any top level professional athlete. (Read the fascinating NYT story about Salazar and Nike -- using legal meds off label in exceptionally risky ways) This is why pro sports suck for fans: You know in your mind and heart that they are not playing by the "fair play" rules that we knew as kids or as amateurs who race only for the love of it, but you love the spectacle and the competition. Yet you still continue to hope that SOMEONE is still following those rules and winning at the same time.

After the EPO era shattered the last illusions, I just don't know how much time and energy I can expend on watching pro cycling anymore. My compromise is to focus on classics and queen stages and ignore the rest as it's just become static.

 

[Cycle Chic]

Why why why ????

do these doped up riders (Froome, Dumoulin Porte...etc) put in performances which ARE TOTALLY UNNNECESSARY ?? Dumoulin, just like Froome is unable to restrain himself. There was no need to do that yesterday to Quintana !

Cant they see - cant the DS's see- that this type of performance will send alarm bells !! I just dont get it - ARE THEY SO THICK ??

 

[The Hitch]

Re: Re:

I'm curious, as there are white knights jumping to Tom D's defense, but does anyone posting actually think he's clean? Now would be the time to show your *** for posterity.

I believe he is clean. In fact I believe all are clean meanwhile they arent caught in positive tests. I think its the way you should watch cycling. If you prefer to watch it thinking that all are cheating, then you have a problem.

Interesting choice of words "prefer"

You can "prefer" to believe whatever makes you sleep better at night. The world is great and peaceful and nothing bad ever happens.

The difference between you and those who believe cyclists dope is that we form opinions based on what is true, not what makes us feel better

 

[Netserk]

It's also a false dichotomy. Either you have to believe that the riders are clean OR you have to believe that they are doping. Just because one dislikes assuming what is the most probable reality (that riders dope, and that the best riders almost certainly do so), doesn't mean that the only alternative is to assume the opposite. It is entirely possible to just not assume anything, and therefore *not* assume that the riders are clean (or dirty for that matter).

 

[Brullnux]

Today Dumoulin will attack on the Selvino, and time trial his way to victory as his pure power and strength will be too much for all of Movistar's manpower. He will win with two minutes to spare.

 

[veganrob]

Re:

Why why why ????

do these doped up riders (Froome, Dumoulin Porte...etc) put in performances which ARE TOTALLY UNNNECESSARY ?? Dumoulin, just like Froome is unable to restrain himself. There was no need to do that yesterday to Quintana !

Cant they see - cant the DS's see- that this type of performance will send alarm bells !! I just dont get it - ARE THEY SO THICK ??

Well, they really don't have to worry about getting caught, so they may as well put on a show.

"Welcome back my friends to the show that never ends. We're so glad you could attend, come inside, come inside."

 

[fmk_RoI]

Dumoulin on 2015:

"I knew I was really skinny – not like Froome skinny,” he laughs, “but for me it was quite skinny."

On realising he could climb:

“I wasn’t in the grupetto, but I could never make the front group back then, I was never really competitive in the mountain stages. But then, I won this really hard time trial, which was just up and down the whole way, no flat at all. At that point I started to think, ‘Why isn’t it possible to do that in a normal road stage? Why was I only doing it a time trial?’ That got me thinking. Maybe it was only a mental thing, maybe it was about the way I was using energy? Maybe I was a rider who burned a lot of energy in carbs that meant I could generate a lot of power but only for a shorter time, so that all my energy was gone after three hours of a stage. That was always my problem in the Under-23 races.”

Source: Kenny Pryde interview

 

[webvan]

Re:

Why why why ????

do these doped up riders (Froome, Dumoulin Porte...etc) put in performances which ARE TOTALLY UNNNECESSARY ?? Dumoulin, just like Froome is unable to restrain himself. There was no need to do that yesterday to Quintana !

Cant they see - cant the DS's see- that this type of performance will send alarm bells !! I just dont get it - ARE THEY SO THICK ??

That's a good point...but it possibly comes down to "putting time in the bank while you can".

 

[The Hitch]

Re: Re:

I find it amazing that anyone could imagine that the difference in how riders look after races comes from better training. If there is such a difference that's it's visible, that riders are notably less drained, it is a massive difference.

What do people imagine riders were doing in the 80's? Drinking beer all night and eating pizzas all day, only getting up for races?

I tend to suspect people have no idea how hard riders used to train. Recency bias seems strong.

Hyperbole at its finest. Like there is no grey area between drinking beer & eating pizza's and today's training. I tend to suspect you dont understand the difference between hard training and hard training + science.

I find it amazing that this is even a discussion.[/quote]

So just by saying the word- "science" you automatically proved that the techniques they have now are so much more advanced than 10 years ago?

 

[Oude Geuze]

Awesome performance from a great rider thus far. Seeing him best Nairo on a climb was truly magnificent. Also, his looks really suit a Giro GC contender Definitely my new favorite rider! Hopefully he will challenge the sky train in tdf from 2018 and onwards. If not, I'm happy with him going for giro and vuelta, the giro especially is my favorite as the racing is exciting and often unexpected with lots of attacks. Fabio Aru last year was also great.

Forca Tom-Bella!

 

[Eyeballs Out]

Re: Re:

I find it amazing that anyone could imagine that the difference in how riders look after races comes from better training. If there is such a difference that's it's visible, that riders are notably less drained, it is a massive difference.

What do people imagine riders were doing in the 80's? Drinking beer all night and eating pizzas all day, only getting up for races?

I tend to suspect people have no idea how hard riders used to train. Recency bias seems strong.

Hyperbole at its finest. Like there is no grey area between drinking beer & eating pizza's and today's training. I tend to suspect you dont understand the difference between hard training and hard training + science.

I find it amazing that this is even a discussion.

So just by saying the word- "science" you automatically proved that the techniques they have now are so much more advanced than 10 years ago?[/quote]
If the science we are talking about is pharmacology then hard to argue