Dumoulin.

[Saint Unix]

Re: Re:

Who questions Quintana having possessed much of talent prior the 2013 Tour? What I'm talking about is it's not like tremendous talent legalises using doping. Dimoulin and Froome winning because of doping, while Quintana winning thanks to enormous talent is what I'm calling a complete BS. That's it.

You.

"This guy is just another donkey to racehorse transformation, certainly in terms of his climbing."

to which you responded

that's a kind of reasoning which can be with ease applied to any breakthrough performance. from quintana in the 2013 Tour...

Quintana never showed signs of being a donkey.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

Who questions Quintana having possessed much of talent prior the 2013 Tour? What I'm talking about is it's not like tremendous talent legalises using doping. Dimoulin and Froome winning because of doping, while Quintana winning thanks to enormous talent is what I'm calling a complete BS. That's it.

You.

"This guy is just another donkey to racehorse transformation, certainly in terms of his climbing."

to which you responded

that's a kind of reasoning which can be with ease applied to any breakthrough performance. from quintana in the 2013 Tour...

Quintana never showed signs of being a donkey.

OK, let me elaborate. I was saying purely about results shown in Grand Tours. Is it normal to leapfrog from being 36th in vuelta to finishing 2nd in the Tour? Yes, I know, he had really good showings at Cavandonga and Cuitu Negru, but still.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

what are you getting at? being an elite climber / all-rounder straight from the start of career gives more grounds to be a more credible doper or something like that?
after froome had knocked out dimoulin in the jafferau stage, the dutch was treated as a very likeable guy, who thankfully could keep hope alive in an unequal battle against froome for a long while. but once it got clear that dimoulin is as strong as froome in two consecutive gts on aggregate, there's no mercy to him either.

Being an elite climber / all-rounder right from the start of the career IS more credible than having a sudden transformation in your mid-20s. Of course it doesn't mean a rider is clean, but it does leave the possibility open - unlike a sudden transformation. And also, youngsters are very rarely put on a full, expensive, state of the art program. That comes after they've already proved themselves as potential GT winners. So results as young riders, although not foolproof, are probably still the best guide we have to who is naturally talented and who is a donkey.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Not to be a total *** but:

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/gp-du-portugal/2010

1 Dumoulin Tom 50 6:24:37
8 Atapuma John Darwin 18 0:55
48 Pantano Jarlinson 4:00
62 Quintana Nairo Cafe de Colombia - Colombia Es Pasion 11:57

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/giro-delle-regioni/2010/gc

8 Bardet Romain 18 1:10
13 Dumoulin Tom 8 1"48
24 Quintana Nairo Cafe de Colombia - Colombia Es Pasion 2:56

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/le-triptyque-des-monts-et-chateaux/2011
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/thuringen-rundfahrt/2011
1 Kelderman Wilco Rabobank Continental Team 25 21:02:03
3 Dumoulin Tom Rabobank Continental Team 14 1:01
9 Yates Simon 2 2:01

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-l-avenir/2011
1 Chaves Johan Esteban Cafe de Colombia - Colombia Es Pasion 25 28:20:22
16 Dumoulin Tom Rabobank Continental Team 4:09
21 Quintana Nairo Cafe de Colombia - Colombia Es Pasion 7:51
43 Yates Simon 41:34 (oh look)

and then his first pro year:
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/ruta-del-sol/2012
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/vuelta-a-burgos/2012/gc

this whole stupid conversation claiming dumoulin showed no all-round / gc talent before his mid-twenties is beyond *** and nothing like Thomas/Froome
This was 2010 (when he was 20) and his first pro year (2012) when he was 22. From there he already showed some clear allround potential. It got better every year

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

what are you getting at? being an elite climber / all-rounder straight from the start of career gives more grounds to be a more credible doper or something like that?
after froome had knocked out dimoulin in the jafferau stage, the dutch was treated as a very likeable guy, who thankfully could keep hope alive in an unequal battle against froome for a long while. but once it got clear that dimoulin is as strong as froome in two consecutive gts on aggregate, there's no mercy to him either.

Being an elite climber / all-rounder right from the start of the career IS more credible than having a sudden transformation in your mid-20s. Of course it doesn't mean a rider is clean, but it does leave the possibility open - unlike a sudden transformation. And also, youngsters are very rarely put on a full, expensive, state of the art program. That comes after they've already proved themselves as potential GT winners. So results as young riders, although not foolproof, are probably still the best guide we have to who is naturally talented and who is a donkey.

in theory, yes, but career goes linearly very rarely as there are too many factors in the mix, otherwise riders with undisputed natural talent would've always become grand tour kings while donkeys would've remained donkeys on a permanent basis.

 

[Saint Unix]

Re:

Not to be a total *** but:

Yeah, Dumoulin winning a bunch of flat races is proof of his GT potential. In other news, Geraint Thomas is in the yellow jersey now because he won Paris Roubaix Juniors in 2004.

 

[dacooley]

why the hell showing potential must be followed by delivering results in exactly the same racing department?

 

[Gung Ho Gun]

Re:

Not to be a total *** but:

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/gp-du-portugal/2010

1 Dumoulin Tom 50 6:24:37
8 Atapuma John Darwin 18 0:55
48 Pantano Jarlinson 4:00
62 Quintana Nairo Cafe de Colombia - Colombia Es Pasion 11:57

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/giro-delle-regioni/2010/gc

8 Bardet Romain 18 1:10
13 Dumoulin Tom 8 1"48
24 Quintana Nairo Cafe de Colombia - Colombia Es Pasion 2:56

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/le-triptyque-des-monts-et-chateaux/2011
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/thuringen-rundfahrt/2011
1 Kelderman Wilco Rabobank Continental Team 25 21:02:03
3 Dumoulin Tom Rabobank Continental Team 14 1:01
9 Yates Simon 2 2:01

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-l-avenir/2011
1 Chaves Johan Esteban Cafe de Colombia - Colombia Es Pasion 25 28:20:22
16 Dumoulin Tom Rabobank Continental Team 4:09
21 Quintana Nairo Cafe de Colombia - Colombia Es Pasion 7:51
43 Yates Simon 41:34 (oh look)

and then his first pro year:
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/ruta-del-sol/2012
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/vuelta-a-burgos/2012/gc

this whole stupid conversation claiming dumoulin showed no all-round / gc talent before his mid-twenties is beyond *** and nothing like Thomas/Froome
This was 2010 (when he was 20) and his first pro year (2012) when he was 22. From there he already showed some clear allround potential. It got better every year

Some of these results you post are really on par with Froome finishing ahead of Contador in Castilla y Leon.
Yes, Dumoulin did better than Quintana in Avenir 2011. You're conveniently ignoring the fact that Quintana won the thing in 2010 and Dumoulin never came close to winning, and that Quintana had no results to speak of in 2011. Dumoulin's 16th place was behind worldbeaters Mark Christian and Dimitri Le Boulch. GP Portugal was won ahead of the amazing GC rider Nelson Oliveira. Bardet has much better results elsewhere, and Yates is 2 years younger. If this is the best Dumoulin had to offer, it's not really making a great case for him becoming arguably the 2nd best GC rider in the world. I'm also missing how this is nothing like Thomas, seems pretty similar to me.

 

[dacooley]

the correlation between parking the field in tour de l'avenir and winning a gt (tour) is as feeble as between graduating with honors and becoming a millionaire. you, guys, seem to be reading way too much into what one or another rider showed in their young age, imo.

 

[ppanther92]

Re:

Not to be a total *** but:

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/gp-du-portugal/2010

1 Dumoulin Tom 50 6:24:37
8 Atapuma John Darwin 18 0:55
48 Pantano Jarlinson 4:00
62 Quintana Nairo Cafe de Colombia - Colombia Es Pasion 11:57

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/giro-delle-regioni/2010/gc

8 Bardet Romain 18 1:10
13 Dumoulin Tom 8 1"48
24 Quintana Nairo Cafe de Colombia - Colombia Es Pasion 2:56

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/le-triptyque-des-monts-et-chateaux/2011
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/thuringen-rundfahrt/2011
1 Kelderman Wilco Rabobank Continental Team 25 21:02:03
3 Dumoulin Tom Rabobank Continental Team 14 1:01
9 Yates Simon 2 2:01

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-l-avenir/2011
1 Chaves Johan Esteban Cafe de Colombia - Colombia Es Pasion 25 28:20:22
16 Dumoulin Tom Rabobank Continental Team 4:09
21 Quintana Nairo Cafe de Colombia - Colombia Es Pasion 7:51
43 Yates Simon 41:34 (oh look)

and then his first pro year:
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/ruta-del-sol/2012
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/vuelta-a-burgos/2012/gc

this whole stupid conversation claiming dumoulin showed no all-round / gc talent before his mid-twenties is beyond *** and nothing like Thomas/Froome
This was 2010 (when he was 20) and his first pro year (2012) when he was 22. From there he already showed some clear allround potential. It got better every year

Absolutely, made this argument around 20 pages ago. It was always clear that Dumoulin would be a possible GC contender. Thats not meaning he is not doping (he more than likely is), but calling him "donkey to race horse" - i have to ask myself if those people even follow cycling.

 

[ppanther92]

Re:

the correlation between parking the field in tour de l'avenir and winning a gt (tour) is as feeble as between graduating with honors and becoming a millionaire. you, guys, seem to be reading way too much into what one or another rider showed in their young age, imo.

Someone with a lot of time may calculate correlations for cq points. U23 and best season, U23 and 5 years after and so on. I am sure there is a connection.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Ofcourse these aren't world beating results. But the argument from donkey race horse is ***.

Sure he is probably doping, otherwise how can you keep up with Sky. But the comparisons to Froome make little sense, as do the donkey to racehorse bs from DFA.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

the correlation between parking the field in tour de l'avenir and winning a gt (tour) is as feeble as between graduating with honors and becoming a millionaire. you, guys, seem to be reading way too much into what one or another rider showed in their young age, imo.

Someone with a lot of time may calculate correlations for cq points. U23 and best season, U23 and 5 years after and so on. I am sure there is a connection.

of course, there is connection. nobody is going to argue with this. but still quintana downswinging after having showed such an immense prospect early in career or for example bernal never winning the tour, while dimoulin massively succeeding does not ring alarm bells whatsoever IMO. that's just a life with its uncertainty and unpredictability.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Some of these results you post are really on par with Froome finishing ahead of Contador in Castilla y Leon.
Yes, Dumoulin did better than Quintana in Avenir 2011. You're conveniently ignoring the fact that Quintana won the thing in 2010 and Dumoulin never came close to winning, and that Quintana had no results to speak of in 2011. Dumoulin's 16th place was behind worldbeaters Mark Christian and Dimitri Le Boulch. GP Portugal was won ahead of the amazing GC rider Nelson Oliveira. Bardet has much better results elsewhere, and Yates is 2 years younger. If this is the best Dumoulin had to offer, it's not really making a great case for him becoming arguably the 2nd best GC rider in the world. I'm also missing how this is nothing like Thomas, seems pretty similar to me.

I think the difference is that Thomas showed much more potential. He was at least winning very big junior races and was absolutely dominant on the track in his early 20s. Thomas's recent climbing ability is a bit ridiculous, but as a cyclist - he's no donkey.

Dumoulin's transformation is much, much more like Froome. A few promising results here and there - enough to carve out a respectable but unspectacular career as a pro. But absolutely nothing suggesting he was a very elite level cyclist, let alone a GT superstar - until a sudden transformation at the Vuelta in his mid 20s.

 

[ppanther92]

Re: Re:

Some of these results you post are really on par with Froome finishing ahead of Contador in Castilla y Leon.
Yes, Dumoulin did better than Quintana in Avenir 2011. You're conveniently ignoring the fact that Quintana won the thing in 2010 and Dumoulin never came close to winning, and that Quintana had no results to speak of in 2011. Dumoulin's 16th place was behind worldbeaters Mark Christian and Dimitri Le Boulch. GP Portugal was won ahead of the amazing GC rider Nelson Oliveira. Bardet has much better results elsewhere, and Yates is 2 years younger. If this is the best Dumoulin had to offer, it's not really making a great case for him becoming arguably the 2nd best GC rider in the world. I'm also missing how this is nothing like Thomas, seems pretty similar to me.

I think the difference is that Thomas showed much more potential. He was at least winning very big junior races and was absolutely dominant on the track in his early 20s. Thomas's recent climbing ability is a bit ridiculous, but as a cyclist - he's no donkey.

Dumoulin's transformation is much, much more like Froome. A few promising results here and there - enough to carve out a respectable but unspectacular career as a pro. But absolutely nothing suggesting he was a very elite level cyclist, let alone a GT superstar - until a sudden transformation at the Vuelta in his mid 20s.

Seems biased.

Total CQ points under age of...

...21:
Thomas: 73
Dumoulin: 154
...23:
Thomas: 119
Dumoulin: 1040
...25:
Thomas: 706
Dumoulin: 3805

First three seasons as pro (some argue thats the appropriate time to get used to the speed):
Thomas: 127
Dumoulin: 2294

Or this illustration from Procyclingstats:

Of course you can argue, Thomas did quite some track riding in his early years, but then i am still waiting for Ed Clancy, Andrew Tennant, Steven Burke, Peter Kennaugh and co. winning the TdF. Of course - Wiggins did it, but i don't know if thats a fact in favour of Thomas.

That said and Thomas talk aside - Dumoulin clearly was a huge talent early on. I really don't get you, when you say this transformation was "Froome-like".

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Some of these results you post are really on par with Froome finishing ahead of Contador in Castilla y Leon.
Yes, Dumoulin did better than Quintana in Avenir 2011. You're conveniently ignoring the fact that Quintana won the thing in 2010 and Dumoulin never came close to winning, and that Quintana had no results to speak of in 2011. Dumoulin's 16th place was behind worldbeaters Mark Christian and Dimitri Le Boulch. GP Portugal was won ahead of the amazing GC rider Nelson Oliveira. Bardet has much better results elsewhere, and Yates is 2 years younger. If this is the best Dumoulin had to offer, it's not really making a great case for him becoming arguably the 2nd best GC rider in the world. I'm also missing how this is nothing like Thomas, seems pretty similar to me.

I think the difference is that Thomas showed much more potential. He was at least winning very big junior races and was absolutely dominant on the track in his early 20s. Thomas's recent climbing ability is a bit ridiculous, but as a cyclist - he's no donkey.

Dumoulin's transformation is much, much more like Froome. A few promising results here and there - enough to carve out a respectable but unspectacular career as a pro. But absolutely nothing suggesting he was a very elite level cyclist, let alone a GT superstar - until a sudden transformation at the Vuelta in his mid 20s.

Seems biased.

Total CQ points under age of...

...21:
Thomas: 73
Dumoulin: 154
...23:
Thomas: 119
Dumoulin: 1040
...25:
Thomas: 706
Dumoulin: 3805

First three seasons as pro (some argue thats the appropriate time to get used to the speed):
Thomas: 127
Dumoulin: 2294

Or this illustration from Procyclingstats:

Of course you can argue, Thomas did quite some track riding in his early years, but then i am still waiting for Ed Clancy, Andrew Tennant, Steven Burke, Peter Kennaugh and co. winning the TdF. Of course - Wiggins did it, but i don't know if thats a fact in favour of Thomas.

That said and Thomas talk aside - Dumoulin clearly was a huge talent early on. I really don't get you, when you say this transformation was "Froome-like".

I am yet to see anything that suggests this was 'clear' at all. Of course he was a talented bike rider - most pros are. But one of the best GC riders of his generation? No.

It's ridiculous to compare Thomas with Dumoulin as a youth based on CQ points. Thomas was part of the best pursuit team in the world and had won several prestigious junior races on the road aged 20. He clearly had a way better junior record. Dumoulin won the Belgian equivalent of the Anatomic Jock Race, and not much else.

 

[Ripper]

There is some pretty funny reasoning going on in this page. TD, CF, and G have all had very different paths.

TD and G have shown promise from a very early age, and also shown development. All you need to do is look at the big picture. Sure, you can have selection bias and say one of these two were not performing, but then that's your own analytical failure The issue with G is similar to many classics riders if they were to suddenly be leading le Tour and climbing cols like a rock star at the age of 32. If Fabs or Boonen or even Sagan shipped 20-30 lbs. and could do what G just did, folks would be going coo coo. G's shift to GT rider has been transformational, and a fairly late age. So sure, argue TD is doping, but to say his development was more like CF is laughable.

I see TD and G both as super talented riders. As has been said already though, G's change in climbing is over the top. We'll see how the rest of the week goes.

PS - not really commenting on CF as his 'development', if you can call it that, is nothing like G or TD. He was a middling level pro who suddenly transformed in the space of weeks/months. Totally ridiculous.

 

[Saint Unix]

Re:

Ofcourse these aren't world beating results. But the argument from donkey race horse is ***.

Sure he is probably doping, otherwise how can you keep up with Sky. But the comparisons to Froome make little sense, as do the donkey to racehorse bs from DFA.

What needs to be taken into consideration is rider specialization. Wiggins wasn't a TT donkey at any point in his career, but when he suddenly started climbing alongside Contador, Schlecks and Armstrong in 2009 it was definitely a donkey to racehorse transformation in terms of climbing ability. The same can be said of Dumoulin. He was always a good TTer, but in terms of riding GTs he had shown neither the climbing ability nor the staying power to contend in the GC until that 2015 Vuelta.

If Quintana suddenly started shattering the field in flat TTs it would definitely be classified as "donkey to racehorse" regardless of how good Quintana has been in the mountains throughout his career. As soon as someone starts dominating in a discipline they have a long history of being just decent at best in we're in donkey to racehorse territory.

 

[telencefalus]

Re: Re:

Ofcourse these aren't world beating results. But the argument from donkey race horse is ***.

Sure he is probably doping, otherwise how can you keep up with Sky. But the comparisons to Froome make little sense, as do the donkey to racehorse bs from DFA.

What needs to be taken into consideration is rider specialization. Wiggins wasn't a TT donkey at any point in his career, but when he suddenly started climbing alongside Contador, Schlecks and Armstrong in 2009 it was definitely a donkey to racehorse transformation in terms of climbing ability. The same can be said of Dumoulin. He was always a good TTer, but in terms of riding GTs he had shown neither the climbing ability nor the staying power to contend in the GC until that 2015 Vuelta.

If Quintana suddenly started shattering the field in flat TTs it would definitely be classified as "donkey to racehorse" regardless of how good Quintana has been in the mountains throughout his career. As soon as someone starts dominating in a discipline they have a long history of being just decent at best in we're in donkey to racehorse territory.

that's the point but froome is a worse case rhan dumoulin

 

[Saint Unix]

Re: Re:

that's the point but froome is a worse case rhan dumoulin

Absolutely no arguments there. Froome is the most ridiculous case of all time in cycling, and possibly even all sport.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

DFA is really frustrated because he's been wrong about Dumoulin.

I won't argue that he is doping. But to call his transformation the same as Froome or saying he has shown the same level of mediocre talent as Froome before GT's is ridicolous. It was pretty obvious pretty fast that Dumoulin would, at the least, be a world class time trial specialist. And also really early in his career it became obvious he would, at least, contend 1 week stage races with a long time trial.

That he turned into a good climber was unexpected but also not unreasonable.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

DFA is really frustrated because he's been wrong about Dumoulin.

I won't argue that he is doping. But to call his transformation the same as Froome or saying he has shown the same level of mediocre talent as Froome before GT's is ridicolous. It was pretty obvious pretty fast that Dumoulin would, at the least, be a world class time trial specialist. And also really early in his career it became obvious he would, at least, contend 1 week stage races with a long time trial.

That he turned into a good climber was unexpected but also not unreasonable.

Perhaps his progress is clear to you, just as Froome's was to Sky fans circa 2012-13. If you take of the rose-tinted glasses then his transformation is every bit as ludicrous.

 

[DNP-Old]

Froome showing signs of being human, meanwhile this guy, who is riding his first ever double as a cyclist, let alone a GC contender, is just casually going strong. What?

 

[hrotha]

Re: Re:

Perhaps his progress is clear to you, just as Froome's was to Sky fans circa 2012-13. If you take of the rose-tinted glasses then his transformation is every bit as ludicrous.

"Every bit as ludicrous" is absolutely false.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Froome showing signs of being human, meanwhile this guy, who is riding his first ever double as a cyclist, let alone a GC contender, is just casually going strong. What?

Yep, he's the number one alien now. Would have won the Giro if it wasn't for tactical errors. He's already a better TTist than Froome, a better one day racer, an equal climber and now seems to have better endurance and recovery.

Let's just hope he never figures out how to actually race with his new-found abilities.