(Dutch Beer Race) Amstel Gold Race 2021, 216.7k. Sunday.

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Pick the winner.

  • Pidcock / Kwiatkowski

    Votes: 9 11.3%
  • Bagioli / Vansevenant / Alaphilippe

    Votes: 10 12.5%
  • Schachmann / Schelling

    Votes: 3 3.8%
  • van Aert / Roglic

    Votes: 33 41.3%
  • Valverde

    Votes: 5 6.3%
  • Hirschi

    Votes: 2 2.5%
  • Fuglsang

    Votes: 1 1.3%
  • Matthews

    Votes: 2 2.5%
  • Hindsgaul Madsen

    Votes: 3 3.8%
  • All these choices are ridiculous, I'm making my ballot invalid.

    Votes: 12 15.0%

  • Total voters
    80
  • Poll closed .
I think it's a hard course, and we will not see any kind of bunch or reduced bunch sprint. This is harder than WC 2012, where we didn't have Geulhemmerberg. Way harder than Bergen, and I think harder than Canadian races too...
 
I think it's a hard course, and we will not see any kind of bunch or reduced bunch sprint. This is harder than WC 2012, where we didn't have Geulhemmerberg. Way harder than Bergen, and I think harder than Canadian races too...
Montreal is 263 meters of climbing per lap, here it's probably something like 220 on the 3-climb lap and probably something like 170 tops on the last lap.

Montreal is 4700 meters total, Amstel Zero is probably something like 2800, 3000 maximum.
 
But it has always been a bit strange why so little happens in Montréal. Maybe the recovery periods are too long there. Or maybe the big riders don't really have the incentive to make their moves early because it's hard enough to do the difference in the final lap (which really has never been the case, though).
 
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But it has always been a bit strange why so little happens in Montréal. Maybe the recovery periods are too long there. Or maybe the big riders don't really have the incentive to make their moves early because it's hard enough to do the difference in the final lap (which really has never been the case, though).
I think it's proximity to the finish of the main climb, and the fact that there's a somewhat significant descent right after the hill. And max gradient, I think more explosive reps do more damage than a slightly longer climb, though I still don't think Cauberg is particularly hard.

And yeah it's harder than the 2012 Worlds, but that was super easy. Average speed of 43kph, and some sprinters without any Ardennes history finished in the main group a few secons after Gilbert.
 
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The toughest section, with Eyserbosweg and Keutenberg are out. However doing the Cauberg twelve times will be serious, so I do look forward to this race. They limited the distance to make it more feasible. In a WCh the distance would be longer, but there would be a flat first part. The climbers shouldn't wait too long, because after the final Cauberg it's still almost 20km. Tactics will also be important in the final part.
 
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Controversial opinion: Amstel is closer to Ronde than Fleche and Liege. It's a like a cobbled classic without the cobbles.

I think we could see other riders being great in this race. The same as you see in the cobbled classics. It's perfect for rouleurs like Küng, Stuyven, GVA and Vanmacke.

Geulhemmerberg and Bemelerberg are 5% rouleur hills with no double digit gradients.

And Cauberg is a bit overrated too. I mean, several of the paved climbs in Tour of Flanders are harder (Kanarieberg, Knokteberg, Berendries).
 
Controversial opinion: Amstel is closer to Ronde than Fleche and Liege. It's a like a cobbled classic without the cobbles.

I think we could see other riders being great in this race. The same as you see in the cobbled classics. It's perfect for rouleurs like Küng, Stuyven, GVA and Vanmacke.

Geulhemmerberg and Bemelerberg are 5% rouleur hills with no double digit gradients.

And Cauberg is a bit overrated too. I mean, several of the paved climbs in Tour of Flanders are harder (Kanarieberg, Knokteberg, Berendries).
But they don’t have the cafes on both sides of the street at the base of the climb that add so much atmosphere (in normal years)
 
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Controversial opinion: Amstel is closer to Ronde than Fleche and Liege. It's a like a cobbled classic without the cobbles.

I think we could see other riders being great in this race. The same as you see in the cobbled classics. It's perfect for rouleurs like Küng, Stuyven, GVA and Vanmacke.

Geulhemmerberg and Bemelerberg are 5% rouleur hills with no double digit gradients.

And Cauberg is a bit overrated too. I mean, several of the paved climbs in Tour of Flanders are harder (Kanarieberg, Knokteberg, Berendries).
Yeah quite a few hills in de Ronde are harder than Amstel. The only thing that makes Cauberg interesting is it's location and the steep pinch being right at the start. And in Amstel it's generally the accumulation of hills and the Eyserbosweg/Keutenberg/Kruisberg/Fromberg is proper Ardennes terrain.

There was a Tour stage finishing just after the Cauberg once with not much else and it was a bunch sprint.
 
I think this year's route is just too easy for the strongest of the hilly classics riders, especially those who also excels in Grand Tours like Roglic. If they are in peak form, I think one of the more explosive and most typical hilly classics specialists will win. Ala, Hirschi, Schachmann, etc. will win. Van Aert would have been the top favorite if I thought he was in absolute top form, but that does not seem to be the case.
 
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Bagioli won't start. Apparently he needed a small knee operation as a consequence of his crash at Trofeo Laigueglia. He will have to take three weeks of complete rest and they hope he can return to competition towards the end of July or early August.

Big blow for the Ardennes team of DQS. They have had their fair share of injuries lately.
Early August???
That's 5 whole months without competition for what was supposed to be a minor crash.

Italian youngsters can't catch a break this year.

Edit: I just read on his IG page that he hopes to come back end of June / early July.
 
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The toughest section, with Eyserbosweg and Keutenberg are out. However doing the Cauberg twelve times will be serious, so I do look forward to this race. They limited the distance to make it more feasible. In a WCh the distance would be longer, but there would be a flat first part. The climbers shouldn't wait too long, because after the final Cauberg it's still almost 20km. Tactics will also be important in the final part.
Isn't the main reason for this, that they need to finish the women's race before the men can start? If it had been the usual distance, they would need to finish more than an hour later (at approximately 7 pm. instead of 5:45).
 
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