Ludwigzgz said:
skidmark said:
Okay, time to remind myself of my team entering this final year. I've gotta get some luck to turn my way to catch Ludwigzgz...
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Haugaard and Olivier, they neutralize each other
Lampaert and Gougeard, I think they may be close, but no problem, point for you.
Sepulveda can make more points than Barbero. Point for you
I think Valgren is better than Hansen. Point for me
Probably Herklotz will be more profitable than Boswell this year. Point for you
But... finally you have Sebas Henao and me Vuillermoz.
You do not have any rider like Vuillermoz. So I think "Pikachu" will be decisive
I agree with most of that, but I'm wondering why you are comparing Lampaert and Gougeard, and Seb Henao with Vuillermoz. Lampaert's total since this game started is 1071, and Vuillermoz's is 1074 (including what he got in San Luis). So I'd think they would be directly comparable. Unless you're saying Lampaert's 2015 was a fluke or something... I have to say he surprised me, for sure, and the cobbled classics aren't as 'sure' of a bet as someone who can climb. But I'd think they would be quite comparable, at least on a points basis.
Anyway, taking those two as similar, here's how I see the rest of our differences:
You're right about Haugaard and Olivier, except there is 0% chance I'm getting anything more from Olivier, whereas you might pick up a few.
Sepulveda has made 708 points so far (plus 112 this year). Gougeard has made 703 (plus 5 this year). I feel like Sepulveda maybe has the edge this year, although Gougeard is a great attacker who can get points all season.
Seb Henao has 345 since this started, Barbero has picked up 617. That's a clear advantage for you, and I think he'll beat Henao head to head in points, even if Henao improves (as I expect him to). I'd say Barbero could make 600 this year, Henao maybe 4-500 tops.
Hansen has made 233 points this year, Valgren has made 706. Ouch. However: Hansen made pretty much the same as Valgren last year, and this year he's moving to Stolting, where he will obviously get way more chances. I think Valgren is going to bounce back (I've got him on my main CQ team), but this might not be the blowout it could seem. However, Valgren is still going to get him in aggregate for sure.
That leaves Herklotz (259 so far) and Boswell (241). Herklotz has the obvious edge in ceiling potential, I think it's just a question of how much he can do this year, and how much of his seeming stagnation last year was just a blip and how much was real. Boswell looked good last year, though, at least it's the first time I've ever noticed him in races.
Anyway, to catch up this year, here's what I think I need:
- Lampaert to keep pace in points with Vuillermoz (possible; Lampaert can be a good foil for EQS in the classics, like a Vandenbergh that can sprint. But - Pikachu is the better solid bet for points, so I need lots of things to break my way).
- Haugaard continues to be irrelevant (very possible), Olivier decides to un-retire (impossible).
- Sepulveda needs to take a step up and start placing in big races (possible; he looked very good in San Luis) to get a couple of hundred points on Gougeard (who is also improving and very good).
- Seb Henao needs to take a step up (possible) to stay within 100 or so of Barbero (who will get lots of opportunities all year round).
- Hansen has to use his opportunities on a smaller team to score big and keep pace with Valgren (possible if Tinkoff use Valgren like they did last year, but I think not likely)
- Herklotz just really has to get it going. This is the biggest x factor. If Herklotz becomes a phenom and scores 600 points while Boswell is stuck at 250, I'm back in the game.
Looking at that realistically, I'm going to need a lot of things to break my way, so I think I probably have less than a 10% chance of that happening. But it'll be fun to follow along!
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