Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[gregrowlerson]

@Red Rick

There might be something to your points; it is quite different to attack after 150 kms of racing than it is going hard from the start of an ITT. But how much of those 150 kms are really 'raced'? And if anyone can attack at least 5 kms out and sustain it, surely that's a guy who can DOMINATE an Olympic ITT over mountainous terrain, no?

 

[Red Rick]

It's certainly riskier to attack 10 kms out as opposed to 1 km, but if you are feeling good, and are superior to your opponents, why not try to gain more time. Look at Armstrong (multiple times), Contador (Verbier, Etna), Froome (PSM); all could have settled for attacking very late and gained just a little time, but all chose to gain additional time by attacking from further out (and all could have relied on their ITT supremacy over most or all of their opposition if they wanted to). Pogacar was already well ahead after the first ITT in this years Tour and still chose to take a huge risk.

Well, of course maybe this could also be discussed elsewhere...

If you think these cases of one rider being far, far superior to the rest of the competition are comparable to Roglic yesterday or in general then I have a bridge to sell you.

I think he wanted to attack yesterday, then he saw how quickly Mas closed him down and he reconsidered his options.

 

[gregrowlerson]

If you think these cases of one rider being far, far superior to the rest of the competition are comparable to Roglic yesterday or in general then I have a bridge to sell you.

I think he wanted to attack yesterday, then he saw how quickly Mas closed him down and he reconsidered his options.

I agree that Roglic was not superior to Mas yesterday. I'm just speaking in general terms, over his career. I just find it weird that a guy with the strength to totally annihilate a hilly Olympic time trial (with less than perfect preparation also) hasn't had a 'PSM' type of moment. Though I realise that a lot of planets still have to align for such moments to happen.

 

[Red Rick]

@Red Rick

There might be something to your points; it is quite different to attack after 150 kms of racing than it is going hard from the start of an ITT. But how much of those 150 kms are really 'raced'? And if anyone can attack at least 5 kms out and sustain it, surely that's a guy who can DOMINATE an Olympic ITT over mountainous terrain, no?

Hilly ITTs don't correlate as much with climbing ability as you might think. Ganna and Kung were top 5, putting minutes into the likes of Uran, Vlasov and Almeida.

I agree that Roglic was not superior to Mas yesterday. I'm just speaking in general terms, over his career. I just find it weird that a guy with the strength to totally annihilate a hilly Olympic time trial (with less than perfect preparation also) hasn't had a 'PSM' type of moment. Though I realise that a lot of planets still have to align for such moments to happen.

Roglic is just not as far ahead of the pack in pure climbing as Froome used to be. It's that simple. And it doesn't help that Kuss doesn't drop everyone else with Roglic on his wheel like Lil Richie used to

 

[gregrowlerson]

I can see it now. It's the 2022 TDF, and it's the third week, but it's hot. They hit the Alp, and Steven pulls off, and Vingegaard goes into Little Richie mode.

10 kms from the finish, Rog turns around and gives Pog a look....

 

[Rackham]

Something to consider in this Vuelta is the lack of effective trains so far. Movistar are down 2 men & their climbing domestiques disappeared as soon as the action started, Ineos are missing Martinez (among other problems) & JV don't have last year's Tour strength to mow down everyone like the Sky glory years.

Point being: yesterday we saw the favorites group explode nearly 10km's out. I think we'll see more of that in the coming two weeks, ergo you might see Roglic in action way before his classic 1km stomp.

I think that whole "Roglic doesn't attack from a long way out" is a result of various things (sustaining high watts has been mentioned although I don't know), but I think that's overlooking one of the bigger realities of cycling over the past ten years, i.e. the aforementioned trains. Long range solo efforts aren't a good idea when rival domestiques manage the gap before their leader has even put his nose in the wind. But in this Vuelta, that might be different. Wait & see.

I mean we're not like likely to see Basque Country style attacks 50km out by Roglic, but I wouldn't be surprised if the red jersey group disintegrates again 10km out & Roglic finds himself mano à mano with Mas or another rival half way up a climb.

 

[Skalman]

A class of his own, he is just toying with the rest. He is so far above the rest in climbing its not even a competition in this year`s Vuelta, congrats bar a crash.

 

[Eeslliw]

A class of his own, he is just toying with the rest. He is so far above the rest in climbing its not even a competition in this year`s Vuelta, congrats bar a crash.

Hmm are we watching the same race? He is maybe the best climber (we will see in 3rd week), but class in his own? He looked on the limit yesterday to me...

 

[Gargamel35]

Hmm are we watching the same race? He is maybe the best climber (we will see in 3rd week), but class in his own? He looked on the limit yesterday to me...

Not sure. He could be on limit or he just saw Mas is very strong and didn't decide to attack and burn too much power.

 

[Carols]

Hmm are we watching the same race? He is maybe the best climber (we will see in 3rd week), but class in his own? He looked on the limit yesterday to me...

What did you see to make you believe that? He never grimaced and was always totally in control of the final result. Best TT, best climber to date. Not saying it's over because it's never over until the finish line. But I saw no weakness or on limit indications.

 

[will-10]

Hmm are we watching the same race? He is maybe the best climber (we will see in 3rd week), but class in his own? He looked on the limit yesterday to me...

Hmmm. Before or after he dropped all but one guy?

 

[IndurainsTdF1994]

Hmmm. Before or after he dropped all but one guy?

Tongue out for Roglic probably does suggest close to max exertion (which one saw with everyone else too). And dropping all but one guy suffices to not be in a class of his own. Obviously, I can’t see past him for the GC.

 

[VeloMaster]

Roglič almost never attacks solo from far out. I can only remember 2 occasions - TDF 2017 Galibier stage and this years Paris-Nice (it wasn't really long range it it was what, 3 kms) where he succeded and then a number of times where he tried and didn't make it (2018 TFD stage 19, 2017 Lombardia, ...).

It's a bit weird to me too, but long range attacks are just not his cup of tea. That desn't mean, however, that he couldn't sustain a tempo that is required for a long range attack while following someone. Normally, you would expect this sort of characteristic from someone who sucks at pacing himself and is a bad time trialist, but this is clearly not the case for Roglič.

This is really puzzling...

One wonders whether or not it is a matter of personality and psychology -- he just prefers not to do it. And his overall success throughout his WT career would reinforce that, although there are times when he would clearly benefit from an all-out, solo, assault on the right climb.

 

[Oldermanish]

Okay, so this is about Roglic.

Red Rick touched on this in the stage thread yesterday, that Roglic has Rodriguez like acceleration, but unlike the Spaniard he can get away with riding more defensively because of his strong time trialling, and that Pogacar (who can do a long distance solo mountain attack like Romme/Columbierre) is the only one who can match and beat Roglic overall.

My question is this: Why can't Roglic attack from 10 kms out and sustain it? Being a great time trialer (which he obviously is) would suggest that he has the perfect skill set for it (unlike Rodriguez who was woeful in the time trial). I'm truly miffed about this.

P.S. Don't tell me it's because he's old

It's as you said; not never. In the long strategy of a stage race it's not wise to burn a ton of energy to get a gap that you may not be able to defend for 10-20km (unless there is alot of downhill element). If you can get 30 seconds over most everyone in 3km of uphill it makes strategic sense. Who knows what effort is required the following day? You could afford to be more aggressive going into a rest day and that's what we saw on Stage 9. Do you think he'd accomplish more by going 2,3 km earlier before Ineos had spent their guys? It's situational and not a great idea to attack when the other contenders still have 4 teammates with them, and you can't be certain of their strength.

 

[Põhja Konn]

The tempo Mas was able to sustain took most of Rog's usual final kilometer attack out of his legs . He was just about able to gap Mas in the last few hundred meters, but it was a significantly shorter and visibly more laboured effort than his usual last kilometer slaughterfests. To me that shows, he was not having it all his own way, and was probably quite close to his limits. The pacing of the final kilometers was in my opinion mostly dominated by Mas, not Roglic, and to some extent it told in the end.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The tempo Mas was able to sustain took most of Rog's usual final kilometer attack out of his legs . He was just about able to gap Mas in the last few hundred meters, but it was a significantly shorter and visibly more laboured effort than his usual last kilometer slaughterfests. To me that shows, he was not having it all his own way, and was probably quite close to his limits. The pacing of the final kilometers was in my opinion mostly dominated by Mas, not Roglic, and to some extent it told in the end.

Good point. Roglic's acceleration at the end was short and weak by his standards. Compare it for example with the way Pogacar smoked Mas at the finish in Luz Ardiden. I think this confirms what have been told here: Roglic was close to his limit (and so was Mas probably).

 

[Rackham]

Dan Martin beat Roglic in an uphill sprint in last year's Vuelta (stage 3 I believe with a category 1 climb finish).

It happens. I also seem to remember Valverde beating Roglic in the 2019 Vuelta as well. I really don't think Roglic is a literal cyborg, so even "if" he was on the limit, it doesn't really say much about the overall.

I mean if someone wants to extrapolate "Mas is stronger because he pulled harder in the final km's", I wouldn't go there, at all. Roglic knows the numbers he's doing & can read his bike computer. And "if" we're judging body language, sprint details or whatnot, we should probably take into account Roglic' overall relaxed demeanour as well. It's not like after the first Sunday in last year's Tour de France when Roglic publicly stated "perhaps Pogacar is the strongest". No, this time he even said he's looking forward to the coming stages. He's in a good place mentally & physically.

And the reason Roglic talks mostly about the team & avoiding problems is because that's really what constitutes the most danger. No disrespect to Mas (he's clearly in top condition), but he's not Tadej Pogacar (aka a literal bogeyman in the Roglasphere).

 

[Red Rick]

Helmet hair kid is the true fear of the Roglstomp. There is no fear for the little kid who was born with receding hairline

 

[Skalman]

Hmm are we watching the same race? He is maybe the best climber (we will see in 3rd week), but class in his own? He looked on the limit yesterday to me...

Really curious how you come that conclusion?
Because of what? face expression?
He didn't need to make the effort to drop Mas when he could use him to gain time on the rest. With the ease he pulled away from Mas the last 200 metres i would say he was on comfortable ground and had dropped Mas too if he it was needed.
Mas on the other hand didn't seem to be able to sustain a higher tempo than he did.

 

[dercuforever]

If Roglic produces a performance somewhat similar to the Olympics ITT, he'll put at the very least 2min to the 2nd GC rider.
They need to make him work chasing, but it seems unlikely, as movistar will always ride as his teammates because they protect their GC place against everyone (even their own rider).

Roglic is smart, he almost never ride in front of a group unless he is already on the limit. He attacked to make the jump as soon as Kuss dropped.

If Movistar had the same mentality as Ineos, he'd be in trouble, but they are not willing to take any risk of losing a podium spot (which could be understandable when you look at their season).

 

[Red Rick]

If Roglic produces a performance somewhat similar to the Olympics ITT, he'll put at the very least 2min to the 2nd GC rider.
They need to make him work chasing, but it seems unlikely, as movistar will always ride as his teammates because they protect their GC place against everyone (even their own rider).

Roglic is smart, he almost never ride in front of a group unless he is already on the limit. He attacked to make the jump as soon as Kuss dropped.

If Movistar had the same mentality as Ineos, he'd be in trouble, but they are not willing to take any risk of losing a podium spot (which could be understandable when you look at their season).

I don't necessarily think it's about them being stupid, they've been tactically perfect. But the race route leaves very little to the imagination and Movistar are already down to 6 guys.

 

[Pirazziattacks]

I agree that Roglic was not superior to Mas yesterday. I'm just speaking in general terms, over his career. I just find it weird that a guy with the strength to totally annihilate a hilly Olympic time trial (with less than perfect preparation also) hasn't had a 'PSM' type of moment. Though I realise that a lot of planets still have to align for such moments to happen.

My assessment of Roglic is that he's very risk-averse. He relies on his punch and TT to gain time and because that combination gives him such an advantage over everyone other than Pogacar, he rarely has to do anything outside his comfort zone.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

I think Roglic not going for longer range efforts in his career is more a result of the common tactics at the times he broke through rather than his abilities. He and we had seen for years how the Sky train nullified longer efforts and that GC action often came down only to the last 1-2km. If you're capable of sitting on and outpunch everyone most of the time (as well as take times in the TTs) it sure becomes a preferable strategy.
It's only been in recent times that longer isolated efforts have become popular again, mostly down to Pogacar who just wants entertainement, although TdF 2019 was already a shake up.
Roglic also has mostly been in a situation where he has to simply defend so attacking early makes often just less sense.

 

[Red Rick]

Roglic rode with normal aggression in the 2018 Tour. It didn't work cause he wasn't climbing better than Thomas and Dumoulin at that point.

Pogacar is just better but seriously when you have the legs of a god when everyone is suffering it's just a stupid comparison.

 

[dercuforever]

I don't necessarily think it's about them being stupid, they've been tactically perfect. But the race route leaves very little to the imagination and Movistar are already down to 6 guys.

They are not stupid, but they play it safe :
When ineos attacked, if they wanted to win the vuelta, they should have let Jumbo then Roglic do the work. But doing so they expose themself to a Roglic attack, which would maybe drop Mas. They also risk their podium spot in case Roglic won't close the gap.
When Roglic is alone vs 3+ riders, they should attack one after the other and never ever work with Roglic. This is the only way to beat a stronger rider, unless he has bad luck before Madrid.