Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

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Very nice... He enjoys marriage, had great holidays. Soon it‘s back to work. I‘m sure he can‘t wait for the 2022 season to begin.

The big goal is clear: although he will have problems beating Pogi in the Tour, he will want to improve: in 2020, he was 59 seconds behind Pogi in Paris, so everything which is less than these 59 seconds would be improvement. I think it could be like this in 2022:

  1. Pogi 90:00:00 hrs
  2. Primoz +29 secs
  3. Bernal +5 mins
It was more like 2 minutes at TDF 2020. But i am sure that Roglič can manage. It's not like it would be the first time to beat Pogačar on a GT, week or a day long race.

Win some, lose some.
 
Still it was two minutes the last time they faced each other on a GT race and not one minute. It's much harder to mitigate two minutes compared to one. But i do agree with you on the point where you are saying they should be much closer now. Compared to the @Skijumper Roglic fan estimate made above.
The last time they faced each other in a GT, a very injured Roglic limited his loss to 44 seconds in a 32-33 minute effort.
 
Very nice... He enjoys marriage, had great holidays. Soon it‘s back to work. I‘m sure he can‘t wait for the 2022 season to begin.

The big goal is clear: although he will have problems beating Pogi in the Tour, he will want to improve: in 2020, he was 59 seconds behind Pogi in Paris, so everything which is less than these 59 seconds would be improvement. I think it could be like this in 2022:

  1. Pogi 90:00:00 hrs
  2. Primoz +29 secs
  3. Bernal +5 mins
29 seconds, loool. It almost sounds as if Pogi himself posted this trolling Rogla and his fans.
Primoz is starving even during his honeymoon to finally beat Pogi there so give him a break!
 
Obviously if one is injured it's not really a race in between them anymore.
What does this suggest?

That Roglic rides faster when injured or that Pogacar rode at a leisurely pace now that Roglic was injured?

The fact is that while injured, he wasn't really that far off Pogacar. It doesn't really make much sense to claim that Roglic would probably have lost a minute more if he was healthy.

Now, you could argue that the placement in the race was very different from LPBF and stage 20 of next year's Tour and that would certainly have its merits but just shrugging this particular result off as not reflecting their true difference because Roglic was injured (and suggesting that it should be bigger) is pretty lame.
 
@tobydawq

The problem with it is i lost track of the point. It's like i would respond to your last post and would wrote something in the lines of when the sun is up it's called a day. Saying otherwise is lame. Now such claim by itself makes much sense and not much left to not agree with. It's rather clear. But there is i guess an elephant in the room. And that is where exactly did you say when the sun is up it is not called a day?

All in all what i said in the post you responded to is if one of them is injured the race in between them is more or less over. No real point in analyzing it further. Considering how close they are i feel that there is nothing lame or incorrect in this statement. It's as close to the fact as it gets. Competing against Roglič or Pogačar you need to be healthy and in good shape. Otherwise you likely already lost before the race started. And the same applies for the duo too.
 
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@CyclistAbi, it's not that complicated really. It started when you said:
Still it was two minutes the last time they faced each other on a GT race and not one minute.
To which @tobydawq reminded you of this year's TDF:
The last time they faced each other in a GT, a very injured Roglic limited his loss to 44 seconds in a 32-33 minute effort.
Now here you should probably cede your argument, acknowledging you were not right. But you opted for another way:
Obviously if one is injured it's not really a race in between them anymore.
The rest, as they say - is history :)
 
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@bNator

My point was TDF 2021 is not a relevant GT race to compare and make much conclusions from. As one of them didn't finish it and got injured early. Saying they faced each other on this race is like saying Bernal faced Landa on Giro 2021. Hence i don't find the @tobydawq remark relevant to the debate we were having.

The debate didn't start there. It started when @Skijumper Roglic fan said Roglič was a minute behind Pogačar and how Roglič will be half a minute behind Pogačar next time they face each other on a GT race (likely Tour). My respond to that was Roglič was not one minute behind. But two minutes behind. Then @BigCoward entered the debate and there was a sort of an agreement reached. Roglič has likely already reduced that 2 minutes deficit to an extent. Based on the overall performance in the 2021 season as a whole. Here my opinion still stands. That if they don't make a plan A on where they assume Pogačar is 2 minutes ahead. On the start of the next GT race they face each other. In that case they are rather stupid.

Now this point marks the time when @tobydawq entered in the debate. And thanks for confirming the entrance was more about trying to prove somebody wrong on the internet. To throw in a word like lame. Than actually discussing something relevant in regards to the ongoing debate.

Next time just be more direct. Just ask me to admit i am wrong. I have no problems with that. I am usually wrong. Have no problem in admitting that.
 
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I agree Roglic should want as much time as possible and take it wherever he can get it, but I would still favor Roglic in an ITT, despite Pogacar's performance in the 2020 Tour. If both are healthy, the odds of Pogacar repeating that performance are very, very slim IMO. Roglic is a monster against the clock. He should not assume Pogacar will gain 2 minutes.
 
GT race is not only about ITT performance. You need to perform well in other disciplines too. Like climbing, sprint, bonus seconds, cobbles, cross-winds, maintaining health ... And you and your team need to ace it tactically. Especially when the differences in between favorites are of the margin as in between Roglič and Pogačar. Roglič can indeed be rather confident. Still believing Pogačar doesn't have 2 minute advantage at the start of the race and more importantly not incorporating that in plan A. That would be an oversight.
 
GT race is not only about ITT performance. You need to perform well in other disciplines too. Like climbing, sprint, bonus seconds, cobbles, cross-winds, maintaining health ... And you and your team need to ace it tactically. Especially when the differences in between favorites are of the margin as in between Roglič and Pogačar. Roglič can indeed be rather confident. Still believing Pogačar doesn't have 2 minute advantage at the start of the race and more importantly not incorporating that in plan A. That would be an oversight.
It depends how good Roglic’s TT form will be and what kind of opportunities to gain time he gets… I don’t think it’s as simple as trying to get 2 minutes advantage for the final ITT at all costs and declaring that is the optimal approach. Going for it means taking risk and trying to get 2 minutes advantage during 3 weeks of racing usually means taking significantly more risk than just trying to not get dropped. If Rogla is indeed a better TT-er it might be a “statistically” better strategy to just hang on to Pogacar and try to win the last TT than taking chances unnecessarily and blowing it on the way to Paris…

That being said, I actually agree Roglic should go for it - because you never know with these two taking TT. If nothing else, Roglic could get flat during TT. And most importantly, it’s much nicer to watch when he really goes for it…
 
Currently i am leaning towards taking the risk. That is for Roglič and JV to for example try to blow up the race on cobbles. Crashing out while doing it to represent a realistic option. But if that would be plan A then taking part in Giro could be a nice touch too.

Realistically they likely won't take such risk. And hence Roglič will need to beat Pogačar in the old fashioned way.
 
Currently i am leaning towards taking the risk. That is for Roglič and JV to for example try to blow up the race on cobbles. Crashing out while doing it to represent a realistic option. But if that would be plan A then taking part in Giro could be a nice touch too.

Realistically they likely won't take such risk. And hence Roglič will need to beat Pogačar in the old fashioned way.
That would seem to involve less chance of crashing. The closer to the front you are, then the less people there are that can crash in front of you and the more likely you can pick good lines. The issue is having the legs to do that.
 
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