I hear & read this a lot. I get where everyone is coming from but when we see how he climbed the Angliru & his ITT performance... surely this is unchartered territory in pro-cycling as far as having a rider of this level being told "you can't win the Tour"?
And I'm not saying you're wrong either (although I do have a more nuanced appraisal of his chances, i.e. even if I'm realistic here), with Roglič people need to admit he's always underrated irrespective of his exploits on the road.
I mean if Juan Ayuso performed the way Rog did in the ITT & on the Angliru, a very different conversation regarding the 2024 TdF would be taking place right now (namely we'd see quite a lot of hyperbole about his chances versus Pog). And that's one of the things which I notice in cycling most, i.e. when a hyped rider (especially a younger one) has a good performance, we'll hear "he's going to smash everything, guaranteed". At least that's the prevalent mood & opinion. For example many 'watts obsessives' on social media & other influencers believed Ayuso was going to smash Rog in this Vuelta. Just as they said Almeida would smash him in the Giro.
IMO maybe (just maybe) he's just another Novak Djokovic-esque athlete & cycling commentators haven't realized it yet. Great personal hygiene, discipline, drive & determination to succeed... & a winner in his mid-30's.
That's it really.