Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Miha81]

I think hw will improve like in the Tour 2018 or last year Giro or others GT, but is quite concerning the perfomance of his team, so poor today.

TBH today every team got blown by UAE. Maybe they came a little "undercooked" since it is backloaded TDF.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Landa could have ended his Tour today I think.

 

[Rackham]

I also note today's stage on paper was a form of kryptonite for Rogla.

These sorts of long drags with a monster pace on progressively steeper gradients have never been his forte (he almost 'died' on Monte Bondone in the Giro last year on this sort of profile). He starts to suffocate & that's exactly what I saw happening in the final 2km of the climb. But he's tenacious as hell & fought on. Well done. That's what cycling is also about.

 

[Extinction]

I came here to say he's much better today & that was very promising for what's next... & I read that he sucks. Never change guys, never change.



Yes, because riders always remain at the exact same level throughout the 3 weeks of a GT, right? Especially when there's no real mountain stage again until... stage 14!

I mean seriously. I bet most people probably thought he'd explode & finish minutes down.

He got dropped on the last stage of the Dauphine, thus his form isn't on the upward trajectory. I think he'll crack in week three, but I don't hope so for the race.

 

[Miha81]

I also note today's stage on paper was a form of kryptonite for Rogla.

These sorts of long drags with a monster pace on progressively steeper gradients have never been his forte (he almost 'died' on Monte Bondone in the Giro last year on this sort of profile). He starts to suffocate & that's exactly what I saw happening in the final 2km of the climb. But he's tenacious as hell & fought on. Well done. That's what cycling is also about.

That is why I think was extremely happy in an interview. He was all smiles (at least in Slovenian part).

 

[Oldermanish]

Not at all, he was dropped, which means he will only lose more time in the mountains.

They were in the mountains. Where he started to look vulnerable was the 2km from the summit; likely due to altitude.
The fact that he caught everyone, including Jonas and pulled well to the finish was encouraging. Better than I'd hoped. Actually, Vingegaard and his team need to be concerned.

 

[Oldermanish]

I also note today's stage on paper was a form of kryptonite for Rogla.

These sorts of long drags with a monster pace on progressively steeper gradients have never been his forte (he almost 'died' on Monte Bondone in the Giro last year on this sort of profile). He starts to suffocate & that's exactly what I saw happening in the final 2km of the climb. But he's tenacious as hell & fought on. Well done. That's what cycling is also about.

I saw that same "tell" at 2km when he had to get out of the saddle. Combo of the climb length and altitude. IMO this looks fairly good for the 3rd week but he needs to make up some time. The TT will be a test, for sure.

 

[Extinction]

They were in the mountains. Where he started to look vulnerable was the 2km from the summit; likely due to altitude.
The fact that he caught everyone, including Jonas and pulled well to the finish was encouraging. Better than I'd hoped. Actually, Vingegaard and his team need to be concerned.

When you are off the pace uphill, no matter what you do on the descent has nothing to do with your real level. He lacks something and the mountains that are coming don't bode well for him.

 

[Rackham]

When you are off the pace uphill, no matter what you do on the descent has nothing to do with your real level. He lacks something and the mountains that are coming don't bode well for him.

There are no 'upcoming mountains'. They're a lifetime away. It'll be a different Tour de France by stage 14, it always is form wise.

Now it's just the long transitional phase which includes some serious dangers (included the dreaded gravel stage).

This was not a stage that was bad for Roglic.

If youw want your Bondone parallel that's Plateau de Beille.

At that infernal pace on the fourth stage of a GT, it's absolutely bad for Rog.

I think Red Bull Bora can be quite relieved at the outcome tbh. Things could have been way, way worse.

 

[Extinction]

There are no 'upcoming mountains'. They're a lifetime away. It'll be a different Tour de France by stage 14, it always is form wise.

Now it's just the long transitional phase which includes some serious dangers (included the dreaded gravel stage).



At that infernal pace on the fourth stage of a GT, it's absolutely bad for Rog.

I think Red Bull Bora can be quite relieved at the outcome tbh. Things could have been way, way worse.

So you actually think Rog is in crescendo?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Red Bull Bora in general? I think they are quite disappointed and hoped for more than this. Its a big budget teams with many stars who have put all their eggs in this basket. Vlasov and Hindley are nowhere to be seen, and Roglic doesn't look super good himself either and is just 'getting by'.

 

[Oldermanish]

When you are off the pace uphill, no matter what you do on the descent has nothing to do with your real level. He lacks something and the mountains that are coming don't bode well for him.

The one thing I learned and taught new riders: don't race to the summit to lose on the descent to the finish. Racing 101.
Every forum person including me had doubts about his form emergence after Dauphine. Today was the real deal and he didn't fold. It'd be interesting to see what Jonas and Remco would say about Primoz next weeks.
Talk after the TT.

 

[Faserr]

Red Bull Bora in general? I think they are quite disappointed and hoped for more than this. Its a big budget teams with many stars who have put all their eggs in this basket. Vlasov and Hindley are nowhere to be seen, and Roglic doesn't look super good himself either and is just 'getting by'.

They are all missing a bit. Don't now if they got something wrong. Now its 100% Roglic who has a chance for the podium.

 

[Extinction]

The one thing I learned and taught new riders: don't race to the summit to lose on the descent to the finish. Racing 101.
Every forum person including me had doubts about his form emergence after Dauphine. Today was the real deal and he didn't fold. It'd be interesting to see what Jonas and Remco would say about Primoz next weeks.
Talk after the TT.

The descent has to do with maintaining speed through the curves. You don't lose on the descent because you raced the climb, Remco was a clear demonstration of this. You lose or gain because of craft. The same Jonas lost downhill doubtless because he was scared from the Itzulia fall. Roglic will find the last week difficult, because he struggles uphill.

 

[Keelhaul]

Man it's just too early to tell. It's extremely hard to predict who peaks when, how fatigue impacts riders, especially true for both Pogi and Vinge. Minor infections come and go, a couple of bad days of sleep, three weeks is an INSANELY long time. We've seen Roglic improve and decline relative to his competition and he won and lost races either way.

If these were off days, then he did relatively well to limit losses, but of course he needs to put pressure on opponents at some point if he wants to win the race.

Both Pogacar and Vingegaard has reasons to have bad days. Roglic is capable of miraculous days. We will see. It is going to be super fun. So far it's Pogi's race to lose.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So long-range defence continues. In the first few days Primoz lost more time than one would expect, he lacks some power uphill. But the race is still long, maybe he will actually get stronger later and the fight for top3 is still very much open with 8 guys in contention.

 

[Rackham]

So you actually think Rog is in crescendo?

Yep.

A form curve isn't linear between races, not for this rider. I'd say for example he was much better in Catalunya back in March 2023 than he was in the first week of the Giro over a month later. But by the time Monte Lussari came about at the end of week 3, he was firing on all cylinders.

The most important thing is no crashes. That's the sine qua non for a successful Tour which gets Red Bull a podium.

Also, speaking of Catalunya 2023, stage 3's finish at La Molina pretty much encapsulated the exact same fast grind on shallower gradients which Rog hates. It's how Evenepoel beat him that day (& dropped him at the end). This isn't news to anyone. It's just the way he is. So the fact he survived today should make his team quite hopeful regarding what's coming next.

 

[Keelhaul]

So long-range defence continues. In the first few days Primoz lost more time than one would expect, he lacks some power uphill. But the race is still long, maybe he will actually get stronger later and the fight for top3 is still very much open with 8 guys in contention.

Given my prior expectation, it is a bit more, but given the racing, I think he is kind of doing okay-ish in terms of outcome.

Pogi is burning matches left and right - if he is able to keep this up in weeks 2 and 3, he wins, but that is an unprecedented level. Rog imo has been the most economical out of the big 4 in these days, but 80% of that was being forced to do so, but it could be beneficial in the long run.

 

[Extinction]

Yep.

A form curve isn't linear between races, not for this rider. I'd say for example he was much better in Catalunya back in March 2023 than he was in the first week of the Giro over a month later. But by the time Monte Lussari came about at the end of week 3, he was firing on all cylinders.

The most important thing is no crashes. That's the sine qua non for a successful Tour which gets Red Bull a podium.

Also, speaking of Catalunya 2023, stage 3's finish at La Molina pretty much encapsulated the exact same fast grind on shallower gradients which Rog hates. It's how Evenepoel beat him that day (& dropped him at the end). This isn't news to anyone. It's just the way he is. So the fact he survived today should make his team quite hopeful regarding what's coming next.

I would have thought Rog needed to show a sign of strength on San Luca (precisely his territory) and today have been with Vingegaard to believe your forecast. After all, he's not racing against Thomas for the win.

 

[Keelhaul]

I would have thought Rog needed to show a sign of strength on San Luca (precisely his territory) and today have been with Vingegaard to believe your forecast. After all, he's not racing against Thomas for the win.

The Roglic teleport is a super nice skill to win stages and get bonies.

I'd argue that the last two GTs he won was not due to the patented Roglic teleport, but demonstrating super high power in critical moments and the mental strength to limit losses on off days.

We need to see whether there is a correlation between the two. My guess would be, there might be some but not much. Power curves adjust weirdly with age, form and training. We will know by week three, but even then, likely we won't know.

 

[Extinction]

The Roglic teleport is a super nice skill to win stages and get bonies.

I'd argue that the last two GTs he won was not due to the patented Roglic teleport, but demonstrating super high power in critical moments and the mental strength to limit losses on off days.

We need to see whether there is a correlation between the two. My guess would be, there might be some but not much. Power curves adjust weirdly with age, form and training. We will know by week three, but even then, likely we won't know.

Or he could just as well collapse in the decisive moment as in 2020. Look, he's old, on a new team, so I think his time has come.

 

[skippo12]

Given my prior expectation, it is a bit more, but given the racing, I think he is kind of doing okay-ish in terms of outcome.

Pogi is burning matches left and right - if he is able to keep this up in weeks 2 and 3, he wins, but that is an unprecedented level. Rog imo has been the most economical out of the big 4 in these days, but 80% of that was being forced to do so, but it could be beneficial in the long run.

Last part is probably the reality of things. It's not like Roglic is saving energy. He has to dig deep to limit the damage. When he was barely holding on to the group they showed a close up of Evenepoel who was still breathing through his nose. Pogacar was on the radio. Telling his team to push harder. Vingegaard was his usual stoic self.
They are probably saving more energy than Roglic because they don't have to go over threshold levels as early and often.

 

[Gargamel35]

Roglič basically said today that he's fighting with himself and he's happy with how it went because it was a bit better then 2 days ago. He also knows he's fighting for podium, not TdF win.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Yep.

A form curve isn't linear between races, not for this rider. I'd say for example he was much better in Catalunya back in March 2023 than he was in the first week of the Giro over a month later. But by the time Monte Lussari came about at the end of week 3, he was firing on all cylinders.

The most important thing is no crashes. That's the sine qua non for a successful Tour which gets Red Bull a podium.

Also, speaking of Catalunya 2023, stage 3's finish at La Molina pretty much encapsulated the exact same fast grind on shallower gradients which Rog hates. It's how Evenepoel beat him that day (& dropped him at the end). This isn't news to anyone. It's just the way he is. So the fact he survived today should make his team quite hopeful regarding what's coming next.

Rog hates slow grinders, he suffers on Monte Bondone (which is a 'standard' HC MTF), he's up in down on shorter climbs.. all according to you. Which climbs are he actually good at then? Whats the plan here? Just try to follow as long as possible, do well in the time trials don't crash and finish somewhere between 3-5th as a result?

 

[Gargamel35]

Rog hates slow grinders, he suffers on Monte Bondone (which is a 'standard' HC MTF), he's up in down on shorter climbs.. all according to you. Which climbs are he actually good at then? Whats the plan here? Just try to follow as long as possible, do well in the time trials don't crash and finish somewhere between 3-5th as a result?

Yes. And all that would be considered good.