Yeah just bad legs today. No way he should be gapped by Mas on a climb like that. On the other hand, Vingegaard and Pogacar crushed the previous record, which was held by Roglic, on this climb. Vingegaard is somehow in extremely good form.
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It's a rollercoaster & always has been.
I mean sure I sort of watched that finale unfold with my head in my hands. That's clearly not what any of his fans wanted. Respect to Pog for seizing the moment though, i.e. it looked like he was the only rider who thought it was a good time to attack & take time on Rogla whereas the others either did very little (Vinge did the bare minimum pulling) or nothing at all. Maybe they'll regret that.
That's not copium BTW, i.e. Rog has a long history of proving doubters wrong - namely through displaying a helter-skelter form curve in which a very bad performance (like the Olympics road race) is followed by one of his best ever (Olympics ITT), or Monte Bondone in the Giro last year followed a few days later by Monte Lussari. There's also some historic 'scars' in there as well like the 2018 TdF with the podium loss in the ITT after his epic win in Laruns, i.e. in that respect the near 'collapse' we saw in the Dauphiné was totally in character. FYI his peaks are usually super performances that offset his time losses elsewhere. There's basically a 'narrative' which says he's a consistent performer all year long which misses the finer details, namely the fact he has serious ups & downs (this is a rider who gets dropped & always has done).
When do we 'give up'? If he gets dropped by his podium rivals on stage 14 on Pla d'Adet, it'll be game-over more or less. He could even afford to lose more time on Tuesday (it's not exactly unusual for a podium finisher to start slowly & finish strong) but by stage 14, he must have form.
That's because this Tour is very, very backended & other than the Galibier on stage 4, there's no real climbing test until stage 14.
The fluctuations you talk about can still lead to victory when your highs are a fair bit higher than your competition, but when you race Pogi and maybe a Jonas that can go the distance, fluctuations are not really allowed. There really have to manifest a very particular set of circumstances, before he can pull a rabbit out the hat after showing worrying form.
I don't think anyone is even talking about Pog & Vinge here or fighting them for the win, i.e. simply about the more pressing & immediate concern about Rog's prospects for the podium. It's about some of the conversations which are happening right now whereby Vlasov should be given freedom based on yesterday's stage results. Stuff like that.
What I'm saying is wait & see. Following every Formigal, there's often a Moncalvillo. Again, I'm not talking about winning the Tour, I'm simply talking about Rog showing what he can do in the GT & getting a good result.
I get your point and agree, still think he has a fair shot at the podium. I was mixing your views up with Albi's
I'll be honest here, i.e. of course I dream of him winning the TdF. I mean obviously. I don't want to drag another 'famous' name into this thread but I'd wager Evenepoel fans secretly dream of a TdF win as well. It's normal.
But life isn't a fairy-tale & I'm a total realist. I don't go around saying "he's going to win!" because life doesn't work like that & it also invites all sorts of problems, namely when it predictably doesn't materialize. There's a thousand other issues between now & a prospective podium anyway, such as A/showing decent enough legs tomorrow (without shipping too much time if does drop), B/surviving without incidents (especially today but also the gravel stage) & C/showing decent enough ITT form.
Then, if he gets through that little set of potential snafus, we can start to think about the Pyrenees.
That would be nice. Vlasov and Hindley in addition to Landa and Van Wilder gives Remco quite brilliant mountain support.
In my opinion is a bit deluded to say 'oh it's his bad day and if a bad day is 21 seconds lost then it's all ok'
For sure if Roglic cracked on plateau de belle and limited the loss to 21 seconds, maybe
But we have stage 2 on a climb were Roglic was not beaten by anyone from 2019-23, in conditions that suit him, and he totally flopped.
It's too early for it to be a bad day, he's literally just not good at the moment.
The one silver linning is that what happens in stage 2 is usually irrelevant by state 20
For sure if Roglic cracked on plateau de belle and limited the loss to 21 seconds, maybe
But we have stage 2 on a climb were Roglic was not beaten by anyone from 2019-23, in conditions that suit him, and he totally flopped.
It's too early for it to be a bad day, he's literally just not good at the moment.
The one silver linning is that what happens in stage 2 is usually irrelevant by state 20
I think it's to be expected it will probably take Bora as a team around 4-5 years to catch up with the likes of UAE, Jumbo & Ineos to be capable of winning Le Tour and they're really only in their third year proper as a GT squad after Sagan years. It took Sky 3 years and a lot of investment to catch up with Saxobank. If we take UAE being a reset of Lampre's darker years, them 4 years, if we take Lotto Jumbo being the reset of Rabobanks darker years then them 7 years to catch up with Sky.
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Actually he was closing the gap to Vlasov and Ciccone here. Check some videos on X or IG. He was caught too far back, otherwise there's no way he wouldn't have been able to keep up with the first group.
The interview I saw with him was he said he was too far out of position and the team still have things to work on to improve, so I think mostly inexperience at a team level to keep him well positioned, maybe tactics and nutrition etc too. I assume he's gone from Ketones to no Ketones now like Jumbo use in the final because MPCC teams are not supposed to be using them as members and that might have a small factor too. It's also getting difficult to keep your leader at the front because there's now not just Jumbo or UAE strongest but several teams. I think he'll climb well though, he's done a bit of a Wiggins in the weight department Roglic for this year it seems.
Rogla and Bora not really fighting for positions, at the end of stage 3, rather smart. First big test at this Tour edition ahead tomorrow, on where stage 2 already long forgotten. At this point it likely still makes the most sense to leave it up to UAE and Pogi, testing Jonas, Visma likely emptying themself too. In crucial moments both Rogla and Bora hopefully to counter it with ease.
I've never given up on someone who stole my heart until he hung up his bike. It was easy to be a fan from 2018 on. The only hole in his palmares is the Tour. I fear he will never get it. It should have been his in 2020. But he's given me thrills for 5 years showing up just as Alberto and Nibali were aging out. Now he is aging out
. I may give up that he'll win this Tour but I won't give up respecting and rooting for him until he retires .So much angst around here. He said I didn't have legs and there are 19 more stages. Now there are 18. Tomorow we'll learn more about his condition for this race. There are other races.................
Regardless if being religious or not we can all hold hands and pray for good legs, don't ever give up hope, as it was never about being easy, it was always going to be hard. Rogla never ever promised to win the Tour on stage 2!
That stage 4 may not be the toughest it is also the first opportunity to ditch some JV unknowns. Not much definitive has been seen yet other than Pogacar having the desire to make something happen at great risk on Stage 2 and everyone else scrambling to not lose too much time. That will probably be the concern tomorrow as well.
The attack was chaos that Pogi saw, attacking on the daylight side. Roglic had been moving up on the opposite side with a teammate and they got stalled out just before Tadej left the building. Jonas' had his bungee cord attached to Tadej's seatpost until the time it was unhitched and he was asked to work. The swarm of descenders were not responsive and Remco saw and opening. Smartly, he took it as much for clear view on the descent as anything. Lots of stupid decisions in a small space and the guys with the initiative succeeded.
Long alpine climbs require a whole lot less thought. That'll be a separation opportunity.
I've never given up on someone who stole my heart until he hung up his bike. It was easy to be a fan from 2018 on. The only hole in his palmares is the Tour. I fear he will never get it. It should have been his in 2020. But he's given me thrills for 5 years showing up just as Alberto and Nibali were aging out. Now he is aging out
So much angst around here. He said I didn't have legs and there are 19 more stages. Now there are 18. Tomorow we'll learn more about his condition for this race. There are other races.................
I could look at stage 2 several ways, i.e. more positively (as I tried to express earlier) or more... negatively.
I mean like I said there's nothing I want more than for this rider to finally get his TdF but whenever something like Sunday happens (dropping on San Luca) I can't just ignore it. There's basically multiple ways to interpret what happened - including some which are quite honestly worrisome, i.e. namely throwbacks to races like Itzulia 2022 in which he got dropped everywhere because he was carrying an injury.
We'll find out more today because out of all the explanations given, age & declining is actually one I consider less likely at this stage. If there is an underlying issue in this Tour I'd be more inclined to lean towards injury issues. It has happened before (like a recurring shoulder problem or the knee which took a knock in Itzulia back in April).
We'll find out soon enough regarding his form in any case. I expect some big attacks from Pog/or Vinge on the Galibier. It is still my hope he's just started the Tour relatively undercooked because all the major difficulties are in week 3.
And if it doesn't go well... then it is what it is. I'll leave the meltdowns to fans of other riders (I'm sure there will be many).
He's smiling while being wrapped like a burrito and pushed on the bike to continue the next day. It's probably Lora (wife) that gets to see the real R.He is still smiling, no need to worry.
Very nice damage control today, if he can somehow improve from this base he can still get atleast 3rd. Honestly kind of the big winner for me today, finishing with Vingegaard considering how he looked 5km from the top of Galibier is huge
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