Not really sure where to put this (or if anyone will find this interesting) but I asked Chat GPT to rank the top GT riders from the 21st century assuming they rode at their peak in an average Tour de France. I also asked it to make a guess on how previous riders would have ridden in 2024, given the general spike in performance across riders. Putting it here because you know who is number 1…
From ChatGPT: “Comparing across eras is inherently complex because each rider maximized their potential within the context of their time.
To account for this, let’s reframe the comparison: how would these riders’ physiological capabilities scale with 2024-level support systems?
Assumptions
1. Equal Access to Modern Advancements: All riders benefit from 2024-level equipment, aerodynamics, altitude training, nutrition, and analytics.
2. Same Era Competition: The mental and tactical aspects of racing are neutralized—everyone is racing with the same understanding of modern tactics.
3. Peak Physical Performance: We’re isolating physiological potential (e.g., watts/kg, recovery, and endurance).
Revised Comparison with Equal Era Adjustments
1. Tadej Pogačar (2024)
• Why He Remains #1:
• Pogačar’s physiological ceiling is extraordinary, even by modern standards. With equal resources, he still likely has a slight edge in explosiveness, versatility, and recovery over a three-week race.
• His performances in 2024 showed he could dominate in every terrain: mountains, time trials, and tactical stages.
• Projected Watts/kg: ~6.7 W/kg.
2. Alberto Contador (Adjusted to 2024)
• Why He Climbs to #2:
• Contador’s explosiveness on steep climbs was his hallmark, and with modern training and analytics, he could improve his pacing efficiency and sustain higher power for longer efforts. His physiological makeup (lightweight frame and anaerobic capacity) aligns well with today’s performance benchmarks.
• With 2024-level equipment, Contador’s time-trialing—already strong in 2009—would improve significantly.
• Projected Watts/kg: ~6.6-6.7 W/kg (climbing at par with Pogačar).
3. Jonas Vingegaard (2024)
• Why He Drops to #3:
• Vingegaard’s climbing is the best ever recorded at altitude (~6.5-6.7 W/kg in 2023/2024), but he lacks the explosiveness and tactical aggressiveness of Pogačar or a modernized Contador. His focus on steady pacing could leave him vulnerable to attacks.
• On flatter terrain or shorter climbs, Contador and Pogačar could gain time.
• Projected Watts/kg: ~6.7 W/kg (steady climber).
4. Lance Armstrong (Adjusted to 2024)
• Why He Rises to #4:
• Armstrong’s physiological base (incredible VO2 max, lactate threshold, and consistency) would scale well in a modern context. With access to better training data, pacing strategies, and equipment, his time trials and climbing would improve significantly.
• While his climbing (~5.9-6.1 W/kg) in the early 2000s was below modern levels, he could likely push closer to ~6.5 W/kg with today’s advancements.
• His tactical mastery and mental toughness would keep him in contention.
• Projected Watts/kg: ~6.4-6.5 W/kg.
5. Primož Roglič (2024)
• Why He Stays Competitive:
• Roglič’s 2024 Vuelta performance showed career-best climbing (~6.4-6.6 W/kg). His strong time-trialing and consistency in modern racing conditions keep him near the top, but he lacks the sustained climbing dominance of Vingegaard or Pogačar.
• Projected Watts/kg: ~6.4-6.6 W/kg.
6. Chris Froome (Adjusted to 2024)
• Why He Rises:
• Froome was a master of sustained climbing, and his diesel-engine pacing style (~6.0-6.2 W/kg) would scale well in the modern era. With access to better analytics and nutrition, he could improve his climbing numbers to ~6.4 W/kg.
• However, Froome lacked the explosiveness of Pogačar or Contador, making it harder for him to respond to attacks.
• Projected Watts/kg: ~6.4 W/kg.
7. Remco Evenepoel (2024)
• Why He Drops Slightly:
• Evenepoel’s climbing (~6.3-6.5 W/kg) is still improving, but he relies more on steady efforts than explosive power. His time-trialing remains world-class, but in a field of modernized greats, his climbing may leave him just off the top tier.
• Projected Watts/kg: ~6.3-6.5 W/kg.
8. Vincenzo Nibali (Adjusted to 2024)
• Why He Remains a Contender:
• Nibali’s versatility (descending, tactical attacks) would remain an asset in modern racing. His climbing (~6.0 W/kg) could improve with better analytics and nutrition, but he would still struggle to match the raw power of Contador, Pogačar, or Vingegaard.
• Projected Watts/kg: ~6.3 W/kg.
9. Egan Bernal (2019)
• Why He Stays Lower:
• Bernal’s climbing (~6.0 W/kg) is strong but not at the level of the 2024 riders. His time-trialing would remain a liability even with modern advancements.
• Projected Watts/kg: ~6.2 W/kg.
10. Cadel Evans (Adjusted to 2024)
• Why He Stays Lower:
• Evans’ consistent, steady style remains effective, but his climbing (~5.9-6.0 W/kg) and time-trialing wouldn’t scale as well as Armstrong’s or Froome’s. He would remain a top-10 rider but lack the explosiveness to contend for podiums.
• Projected Watts/kg: ~6.2 W/kg.
Revised Standings with Era Adjustments
1. Tadej Pogačar (2024)
2. Alberto Contador (2009, adjusted to 2024)
3. Jonas Vingegaard (2024)
4. Lance Armstrong (2003, adjusted to 2024)
5. Primož Roglič (2024)
6. Chris Froome (2015, adjusted to 2024)
7. Remco Evenepoel (2024)
8. Vincenzo Nibali (2014, adjusted to 2024)
9. Egan Bernal (2019)
10. Cadel Evans (2011, adjusted to 2024)
Key Takeaways
• Pogačar and Contador Shine: Pogačar’s combination of explosiveness, versatility, and endurance keeps him #1, while a modernized Contador’s raw climbing power makes him incredibly close.
• Vingegaard’s Limits: While his numbers are extraordinary, his lack of explosiveness prevents him from surpassing Pogačar and Contador.
• Armstrong’s Era Scaling: Armstrong would benefit significantly from modern advancements, but his climbing ability, even adjusted, would likely remain slightly below the very top.
• Technology Elevates Everyone: With equalized technology and training, the differences become smaller, but the best physiological engines (Pogačar, Contador, Vingegaard) still shine.”
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram