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Call me crazy but I think we haven't seen the best of Primož just yet. I think he has another gear for the GTs and he needs to ride more classics. It's crazy to think this year was his first LBL participation and he hasn't ridden AGR nor FW.
Yup, his mileage is lower than his peers so he's still "young" in this regard. For a long time we had no idea what his limits are but were impressed by his rapid progress. I think he's rather close to his peak now but can still improve somewhat.
 
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His 2 highest peaks form wise in his cycling career have probably been at start of 2019 giro (before illness) and at Dauphine 2020 (before crash)... I'm not sure how his 2020 tour form would compare to his dauphine form, but I think it was most certainly better at dauphine than at the end of tour (and anything after), where he was actually really tested by others.
So I think we have not yet seen the highest peak of Primož in true (GT or other) action, but it's not so much about learning anything he would've known were he cycling from a young age but just getting it right in preparation (he usually does his training right (we could speculate about being too hot prior to 2019 giro, but the illness dilluded our experiment)) and having some luck (where there are quite some reserves left (illness in giro and injury in dauphine)).
 
In fact, I think this was the best Roglic we've ever had. From now on I wouldn't be surprised if he starts declining.
I would be very surprised if he starts declining. There's not one sign pointing in that direction. Since he started with pro cycling, he's added something new to his repertoire every year. This year was not an exception. This was the first time he looked like he has the legs to win the Tour and first time he's done two GTs back to back. Even more, he was competitive for the win in both of them. Adding a monument to his palmares was just a cherry on top.

Thinking about it, it's remarkable how linear his career and his progression have been. If I focus only at his Lotto Jumbo/Jumbo Visma years:
  • in 2016 he discovered his TT powers and had some good results in hilly races/stages with the Giro TT stage win being the biggest achievement.
  • in 2017 he improved his climbing and became a constant top5 in WT short stage races. Rides TdF for the first time and from the break wins the queen stage
  • in 2018 he improved his climbing even further and with his TT still strong, he became almost unbeatable in week long stage races. Starts the Tour with no pressure of a GC but ends up 4th and wins the queen stage again, this time from the group of favourites
  • in 2019 the goal is to win a GT and for the first time the team is built around him in a GT. He fails on the first attempt, coming 3rd in the Giro (I won't go into details what all went wrong there) but gets the revenge and wins the Vuelta late in the same year
  • it's 2020, the memory is still fresh, we know what happened. The goal was the Tour, it didn't happen but this year definitely wasn't a set back but another step forward in his career
So his progression has been as linear as it gets. Step by step (big steps), each year has been better than the previous one. Maybe that's it, maybe he won't improve anymore. But I don't believe he'll suddenly start declining. He can have a down year, maybe he won't win as much as in the last two years. But without some freak injury I believe he'll be on this level for the next 3-4 years.
 
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His best feature is the very high base level. That means he can do good in races even without the prefect preparation. He went into the Vuelta knowing full well preparation was far from ideal for a GT. No high altitude camp, very little rest from the Tour and two very hard one day races in between. He said himself that the legs were not nearly as good as the Tour (or pre Dauphine crash, where he was like two levels above the rest). Yet he still managed to win. If you look at many other GT riders, they "peak" for an event, and that is it. Nibali comes to mind. Also Froome post 2014. They do not feature in the one week races as much, they are not very good early in the season but when it comes to a GT they target, they raise their form for those two or three weeks. Pogačar seems to be that type of rider as well. But Rogla is simply good through the whole year. Specific preparation of course helps - as we have seen that his climbing (the long, aerobic efforts) in the Vuelta was not optimal. But his anaerobic component is so good he can compensate for the lack of the other. Similarly he semed to put less focus on the time trial training this year (simply because the routes did not feature many TTs). So he can adapt to the situation and improve on any given aspect of cycling from one year to the other.
 
Stage 12 was the queen stage of the 2018 Tour, not stage 19

Doing the double this year was easier than usual, because of the condensed schedule. Every rider in the top 10 of the Vuelta did the Tour, so there was not a single opponent who could rest up and rebuild the form.

And the linear progression tracks the rating of his team - 13-9-7-2-2 in CQ points in the last 5 seasons. on Ineos or EF vs Carapaz or Carthy with Jumbo level of support, Roglic loses the Vuelta. Given the limitations as a rider, I believe the level of team support will be one of the main factors determining whether Roglic can win more GTs in the future.
 
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His best feature is the very high base level. That means he can do good in races even without the prefect preparation. He went into the Vuelta knowing full well preparation was far from ideal for a GT. No high altitude camp, very little rest from the Tour and two very hard one day races in between. He said himself that the legs were not nearly as good as the Tour (or pre Dauphine crash, where he was like two levels above the rest). Yet he still managed to win. If you look at many other GT riders, they "peak" for an event, and that is it. Nibali comes to mind. Also Froome post 2014. They do not feature in the one week races as much, they are not very good early in the season but when it comes to a GT they target, they raise their form for those two or three weeks. Pogačar seems to be that type of rider as well. But Rogla is simply good through the whole year. Specific preparation of course helps - as we have seen that his climbing (the long, aerobic efforts) in the Vuelta was not optimal. But his anaerobic component is so good he can compensate for the lack of the other. Similarly he semed to put less focus on the time trial training this year (simply because the routes did not feature many TTs). So he can adapt to the situation and improve on any given aspect of cycling from one year to the other.
Pogacar also has a very high base level the only stage race he has finished worse than 6th in since joining the WT was the 2019 Tour Down Under. His first WT race where he finished 13th.
 
Stage 12 was the queen stage of the 2018 Tour, not stage 19

Doing the double this year was easier than usual, because of the condensed schedule. Every rider in the top 10 of the Vuelta did the Tour, so there was not a single opponent who could rest up and rebuild the form.

And the linear progression tracks the rating of his team - 13-9-7-2-2 in CQ points in the last 5 seasons. on Ineos or EF vs Carapaz or Carthy with Jumbo level of support, Roglic loses the Vuelta. Given the limitations as a rider, I believe the level of team support will be one of the main factors determining whether Roglic can win more GTs in the future.
He was the only one already red hot at season restart that was riding for GC at the Vuelta. He was basically lowest on form yet won it. I think he would've gotten 2nd in the Tour even with a weaker team. Won the Vuelta last year with a comparatively average team.

It's also not like Jumbo was super powerful this Vuelta. This was pretty tame compared to most of the Ineos GT wins. I'd argue the only true positive outlier in that team has been Van Aert in his role. Naturally the big hope is Dumoulin will be better next year.
 
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Stage 12 was the queen stage of the 2018 Tour, not stage 19

Doing the double this year was easier than usual, because of the condensed schedule. Every rider in the top 10 of the Vuelta did the Tour, so there was not a single opponent who could rest up and rebuild the form.

And the linear progression tracks the rating of his team - 13-9-7-2-2 in CQ points in the last 5 seasons. on Ineos or EF vs Carapaz or Carthy with Jumbo level of support, Roglic loses the Vuelta. Given the limitations as a rider, I believe the level of team support will be one of the main factors determining whether Roglic can win more GTs in the future.
Every rider in the top10 of the Vuelta did the Tour, yes. But only Roglič and Mas (clearly started the Tour a little bit undercooked) were riding for GC. That makes a ton of difference. Carthy for example was 37th in GC more than 2 hours down. Their situations are not comparable at all wtf. Not to mention the mental aspect after what happened in Tour TT. Then take in consideration also the races in between the GTs. Again Carthy for example (I choose him because he, with Carapaz was the only other rider also in contention for the win) did two races, FW and WC, and was DNF in both.

Sure nobody had an ideal preparation for the Vuelta, that's true.

I'm not sure I'm following here...Are you saying he is only good because he has a good team? I don't think that's the case at all. This year is the first time he's had a significant help from his team. You can add last year's Vuelta but then again they crashed in the TTT, almost lost the race in echalons and made some other questionable decisions, not exactly super team performance.
 
Maybe? Maybe not. We don't even know if he'll even do the Tour next year. He could choose a Giro/Vuelta season to maximize his chances (like last year). That's "if" it's a normal cycling calendar year of course. But Primoz can be super happy with something I'd describe as a heroic 2020 season all things considered, i.e. 2nd in the Tour, win Liége & now 1st in the Vuelta. Bravo. I mean there are many riders who wished they'd maximize their form with a GT win, which Roglic just did.

Imagine (for example) if Bernal & Pogacar & also Evenepoel all base their entire season on the 2021 Tour? i.e. just like Bernal in 2020, when you lose, you lose big. Honestly I think we're entering into a highly competitive era with a lot of GT contenders, a lot of teams aiming for the top prizes & only a few will reach their goals.

I bet (for example) there are quite a few relieved people at the top of Jumbo right now.
Yeah, this season was very good for him, or for almost any other rider. That's also why I think this year will be known as peak Roglic.

Roglic may have a low mileage when compared with other riders, but he's still 31. Physically, he'll get worse. Whether that means it can be compensated with a better prep, or whatever, that remains to be seen. I just can't see him winning the Tour, unless it gets TT heavy and Pogacar's ITT performances revert to his mean.
 
Call me crazy but I think we haven't seen the best of Primož just yet. I think he has another gear for the GTs and he needs to ride more classics. It's crazy to think this year was his first LBL participation and he hasn't ridden AGR nor FW.
I honestly think he's hit his peak, or about as close to it as we'll see him. And even if i'm wrong, i'm not so sure whatever he can still gain, will matter all that much. Pogacar is only going to get better and get better support. Carapaz is still going to get better (and get actual support), Dumoulin is a year younger, and he hasn't been "worn out" either and is sure to return significantly better than in 2020. Bernal is going to come back better. Carthy, Mas, Evenepoel, Hindley... all have a much bigger chance to leapfrog him, than him finding a so called magical "other gear". Having seen him winning plenty of one week stageraces comfortably, i can't help but get the impression three weeks is seriously "stretching him thin". I also think he isn't the strongest guy from a mental point of view.

In a sense he's caught between generations, and in his case, that may very well have been his luck. Froome, Thomas, Nibali... are all done (not to mention Contador etc), but Bernal, Pogacar are much younger and already hit a higher peak, caught a bigger fish than him. Even if he still has a small margin of improvement, there are guys waiting in line, who still have a much bigger margin of improvement while they almost or already surpassed him. It may very well have been his only real shot at winning the Tour, and i wouldn't bet my house on him ever winning any other GT either. Just like the window of opportunity has closed for Landa, Bardet, Pinot, Yates and others in their late 20's to early 30's.

In any case, i sincerely hope we get a less formulaic version of Roglic in 2021, because he's bored the snot out of me this year. In fact, imho it is an extra indicator there is no other gear. The scripted manner in which he rides (or the team for him), seldom if ever (since becoming an actual GT GC contender) attacking further than 400 meters away, tells me that is all he can spare in order to get the job done. Barely and in unspectacular fashion.
 
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I honestly think he's hit his peak, or about as close to it as we'll see him. And even if i'm wrong, i'm not so sure whatever he can still gain, will matter all that much. Pogacar is only going to get better and get better support. Carapaz is still going to get better (and get actual support), Dumoulin is a year younger, and he hasn't been "worn out" either and is sure to return significantly better than in 2020. Bernal is going to come back better. Carthy, Mas, Evenepoel, Hindley... all have a much bigger chance to leapfrog him, than him finding a so called magical "other gear". Having seen him winning plenty of one week stageraces comfortably, i can't help but get the impression three weeks is seriously "stretching him thin". I also think he isn't the strongest guy from a mental point of view.

In a sense he's caught between generations, and in his case, that may very well have been his luck. Froome, Thomas, Nibali... are all done (not to mention Contador etc), but Bernal, Pogacar are much younger and already hit a higher peak, caught a bigger fish than him. Even if he still has a small margin of improvement, there are guys waiting in line, who still have a much bigger margin of improvement while they almost or already surpassed him. It may very well have been his only real shot at winning the Tour, and i wouldn't bet my house on him ever winning any other GT either. Just like the window of opportunity has closed for Landa, Bardet, Pinot, Yates and others in their late 20's to early 30's.

In any case, i sincerely hope we get a less formulaic version of Roglic in 2021, because he's bored the snot out of me this year. In fact, imho it is an extra indicator there is no other gear. The scripted manner in which he rides (or the team for him), seldom if ever (since becoming an actual GT GC contender) attacking further than 400 meters away, tells me that is all he can spare in order to get the job done. Barely and in unspectacular fashion.
Kinda agree. I think it's more about how much the younger riders can still improve. Experience usually means they will ride smarter but for some riders that have success at a young age, the problem is maintaining it or improving on it. Pogacar is already physically mature as was Sagan at a young age. A phenomenal year for him to go from Vuelta podium in a weak field to Tour winner in a stacked field at a very young age. Bernal won't get back on track until his back issues are resolved. Quintana never regained the grand tour form of his earlier years and Contador's later years were not that successful compared to his early years.

The three weeks seem to have Roglic right on his limit as the last few days always test him. Maybe some training and and racing changes could make him stronger over the final week but four consecutive podiums with two wins is still very good. Froome coped better in the final week when he stopped being so aggressive on the climbs to build a lead early in the race and relied more on his TT while taking seconds where he could without making huge efforts. Froome always looked pretty much in control after his first few grand tour wins while Contador would go deep and often and never left much in reserve for the final week especially in the second half of his career. Roglic often sprints for bonus points as it's been successful for him but he can be vulnerable in the mountains sometimes and his TT while often great, sometimes isn't, depending on how fatigued he is.

I'd like to see Roglic have another shot at the Giro next year but with the proposed route of the Tour he probably won't unless he is targeting the Olympics where many riders will use the Giro as preparation. Dumoulin will also like the Tour route. Jumbo and Ineos will have plenty of options but also plenty of riders with their own ideas of which races they want to target !
 
He just has the perfect skill set for modern day Vuelta routes. Punch/sprint combined with great TT ability. He is even better in shorter stage races for a reason because both skills are even more valuable in races like Tireno-Adriatico.
Not sure if that will translate to a Giro or Tour victory. Other posters already mentioned his tendency to fade in the 3rd week (or at least have a bad day) and I think that on longer climbs or stages with multiple HC climbs guys like Carapaz or Pogacar are stronger.
In a way a guy with his sprinting ability is the next evolution of the Sky/Ineos train but compared to Froome he lacks the ability to create big time gaps in the mountains. Roglic entire scheme is based on bonus seconds and TTs. Making it more difficult to control the race because more riders are still in contention for the win.
 
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I'm not sure you can say Roglic doesn't have any headroom for improvement -- it's more like, "we just don't know."

As mentioned, he was one of only two Tour GC riders to also ride for GC at the Vuelta. So he had 2 full GTs going full gas plus WC plus LBL plus Dauphine as a GC target (in which he was injured).

If Roglic tailored next season in a more Froome- or Armstrong-like way, with a single peak for the Tour, who knows what he could do? Alternately, with his sprint, he could be an Alaf-like one-day rider.

Maybe what's holding him back from (what the forum sees as) true greatness is his racing schedule. Too much too soon in 2019/2020? On the other hand, he wins a lot, which means that it's probably hard for him to hold back when he's feeling good.

Feels kind of odd to imply that the TdF runner up, LBL winner and Vuelta winner is already washed up. (that's exaggerating a bit, but let's wait for a true fail before declaring him yesterday's news)
 
I also think he isn't the strongest guy from a mental point of view.
I dunno -- he really hasn't cracked in a way you might expect. He was dropped on the Mortirolo, Angliru, on Covatilla, and yet rode within himself to limit losses. I'm not quite sure what happened on PDBF, that could have been a mental issue, but maybe a one-time thing.

In any case, i sincerely hope we get a less formulaic version of Roglic in 2021, because he's bored the snot out of me this year. In fact, imho it is an extra indicator there is no other gear. The scripted manner in which he rides (or the team for him), seldom if ever (since becoming an actual GT GC contender) attacking further than 400 meters away, tells me that is all he can spare in order to get the job done. Barely and in unspectacular fashion.
Agree 100 percent. I'd like to see him attack more in some less consequential races to see how it goes. His strategy seems to be riding hard for as long as he can but saving, as you note, a little bit in reserve for a last push. This year that worked 50% of the time when leading a GT into the final stage:)
 
If Roglic tailored next season in a more Froome- or Armstrong-like way, with a single peak for the Tour, who knows what he could do? Alternately, with his sprint, he could be an Alaf-like one-day rider.
Not really.
His sprint might be good enough against the GT climbers, but he doesn't stand a chance against the top notch classic riders (Ala, WVA, Hirschi, MVdP). He's not prime Valverde.

On the other hand, I agree his overall potential is still unclear. He has an insanely high base level. Can that translate to an insanely high peak performance a la Froome? I'm not sure, but you can't rule it out just yet. I'm curious if Jumbo will try a different approach for next year. His consistency is kind of unprecedented among GC riders this century. He's basically a Valverde who can podium any GT he rides. Perhaps they could sacrifice a bit of that consistency to have him fresher for his main target of the season?
 
I get where people are coming from that see Roglic as kind of shaky and not as dominant as his results might insinuate.
Of course I agree that he is no peak froome (thankfully). But he was one less miracle performances away from winning a very one-sided tour against a field as stacked as it could be at the time (of course there was bernals injury, but then again before the injury roglic seemed to be able to handle him).
At the vuelta he handled carapaz, carthy and mas with dwindling form - only losing seconds in the mountains to me rather indicates that mentally that guy is tough as nails than anything else. Surely you should conclute that in a prepped GT, he should be able to handle that bunch again (maybe carapaz could have made some other decisions, maybe he will never have such weak support again, but he fought like a lion and didn't get that much out of roglic). Remco is still unproven at GTs, might dominate everything, might not.

The way I see it: Of course there are guys out there that might beat roglic next year in his prime target, no way he is head and shoulders above the rest. But there's noone I would exactly put money on beating him. Pogacar must be the most likely, but would probably need to either improve further in the mountains or TT at least in the vicinity of his tour TT - debatable how likely that is (or get a first class last domestique, that might also change a lot). Bernal would need to improve I think, given roglic handled him quite well pre-tour. I don't see carapaz distancing peak roglic in the mountains after the vuelta, froome and thomas are old and injured/unmotivated. Remco still unproven. Dumolin needs to get back to the top, and is his diesel climbing enough to keep up with peak roglic climbing? maybe, maybe not. Carthy, Mas, Lopez, Porte? I don't see it.
 
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I don't see Roglic as having a climbing potential of peak Froome/Contador/Nibali. I think him doing slightly worse in ITTs this year because he worked on his climbing might indicate he's near his peak?

Then there's the fact that it's cycling in 2020 and we basically know *** all for next year anyway.
 
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I don't want to take away from what he's achieved this year, he's been the best throughout. What I would like to say is he could have won the Tour if he hadn't tried his best to get his pal, Pog onto the podium. Yes Pog did an exceptional last ITT to overtake him but I still believe he could have made up enough time through the Tour to have had enough in hand to win overall. As for the Vuelta, I think if it had gone on for the full 21 days, he could well have lost this GT if there was an other multi mountain stage on stage 19/20 if they had gone the full hog. Carapaz was coming on well (yes, he/his team was pretty naff this Vuelta) and could well have taken the win.
 
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1.Primoz did not plan to ride this Vuelta let alone to win it. He was very reluctant to go and brought there by the TJV to domestique Dumo (who misjudged his readiness to be the leader again).
  1. Mainly his insatiable lust for competing and intelligent reading of competitors brought him to the top this time - not his peak form which he could not rely on.
  2. Of course, the team can always count on his training/lifestyle discipline and his command of the body which is a result of his engagement in professional sport since his childhood. Ski-jumping stands out as an endless balancing between strength and weight and is psychologically one of the most demanding sports.
 
1.Primoz did not plan to ride this Vuelta let alone to win it. He was very reluctant to go and brought there by the TJV to domestique Dumo (who misjudged his readiness to be the leader again).
  1. Mainly his insatiable lust for competing and intelligent reading of competitors brought him to the top this time - not his peak form which he could not rely on.
  2. Of course, the team can always count on his training/lifestyle discipline and his command of the body which is a result of his engagement in professional sport since his childhood. Ski-jumping stands out as an endless balancing between strength and weight and is psychologically one of the most demanding sports.
Where did you get this?
 
Where did you get this?
He said that many times. Dumo was supposed to be the captain in Vuelta and Roglič would go there as super domestique and maybe fight for stage wins. It all changed quickly, when Dumo was not feeling good from day 1 and TJV decided to go all in for Roglič. Roglič form was far from perfect, so even more kudos to him for the result.

And he also said many times, Dauphine crash was really bad and he came to TDF far from perfect form. Would it be enough against nuclear Pogačar? Probably not, but who knows. If Roglič would win TdF he wouldn't go to Vuelta at all.
 
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