Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

With Paris-Nice done, now, soon, Tour de France in July is coming. The race Primoz wants to win this year.
July 1 offers this ITT (13 kms) in Denmark. Victory will probably be decided between Ganna and WVA there. Few seconds behind, I see Primoz - who, as I hope, will be 5-15 seconds faster than Tadej.

From stage 2 on, I hope for attacks from Jumbo. This year, there will be no waiting, not too much tactics - it will be full gas from the start on. Jumbo will want to show UAE that they are team #1, and that Primoz is here to win the GC of the Tour.

I expect a close battle, with small time gaps. Primoz is on top of his game, and full of motivation. IMHO, he will be the man who beats Tadej in TdF this year. We can look forward to an epic race.

This will be a battle of two equally strong riders. In the recent past, this never was the case: Froome was stronger than Quintana. Contador stronger than Andy Schleck. Lance stronger than Ullrich. Indurain stronger than Rominger. And so on. Primoz and Tadej, however, are the same level. This is like Lance Armstrong 1 against Lance Armstrong 2, or Eddy Merckx 1 against Eddy Merckx 2.
The situation 2022 is perfect for us as spectators. A battle which could not be any better!

 

[CyclistAbi]

From stage 2 on, I hope for attacks from Jumbo. This year, there will be no waiting, not too much tactics - it will be full gas from the start on. Jumbo will want to show UAE that they are team #1, and that Primoz is here to win the GC of the Tour.

IMHO it's perfectly OK if UAE does majority of the work.

So
Will the Gorenjska wolf and the Zasavje eagle leave any victory to their rivals?

Maybe there is a small chance at Grand Prix de Denain.

 

[Oldermanish]

IMHO it's perfectly OK if UAE does majority of the work.



Maybe there is a small chance at Grand Prix de Denain.

Couldn't agree more.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

The climbing level of Paris Nice was in general much higher than Tirreno and the data shows that clearly, so I'm not worried about Rogla, he just had a bad day due to bad weather on the last stage for the reason that whatever, but he convinced me quite a bit in the time trial, in Turini and even on the first day and in the stage where he was alone and put the hammer down to chase DFM on a 4-5% climb.

I saw on Twitter somewhere (just looked again but couldn’t find) that Yates’ numbers were huge and Roglic’s bad day wasn’t far off. Obviously Roglic was at his limit unlike Pogacar but do think competition was at a different level, which made the comparison look much worse for Roglic. As others pointed out, I’d Yates could string together only good days for the Tour, he’d hang with Pogacar. This was a good day.

 

[Oldermanish]

I saw on Twitter somewhere (just looked again but couldn’t find) that Yates’ numbers were huge and Roglic’s bad day wasn’t far off. Obviously Roglic was at his limit unlike Pogacar but do think competition was at a different level, which made the comparison look much worse for Roglic. As others pointed out, I’d Yates could string together only good days for the Tour, he’d hang with Pogacar. This was a good day.

Not that it's always important but isn't Roglic working off of about half the race days as anyone else? 3+ months to the Tour so he may not be in a crashing or fading mood, come July.
A dude's got to know his limits, too.

 

[Gargamel35]

Horner made a great video about PN yesterday. He thinks the main problem with Roglič was bad nutrition (not enough calories) and he supported that with good observations.

 

[Lequack]

Horner made a great video about PN yesterday. He thinks the main problem with Roglič was bad nutrition (not enough calories) and he supported that with good observations.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMPUrtWVCM4

 

[cellardoor]

Not that it's always important but isn't Roglic working off of about half the race days as anyone else? 3+ months to the Tour so he may not be in a crashing or fading mood, come July.
A dude's got to know his limits, too.

I was going to mention this. Roglic has had two one day races where he wasn't really in the mix. Pogacar had the UAE Tour as prep for T-A. Pogacar has also stated that he's close to Tour de France form and if we take that at face value I'd be concerned about him holding that form until LBL.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I too suspect JV is not yet up there with the best. When it comes to nutrition. Some mention cold weather but that in my opinion only added to the main issue. I feel that PN exposed the real "issue". If you look at the number of stages and the number of times Rogla maxed out. It's too much. Longer the (stage) race more they need to be conservative when building up accumulated fatigue. In that article where Rogla said clothing might be a part of the problem. In a same breath he did mention the real reason. Turini. I will go further and say a stomp at the Turini. IMHO if it would be only lets say ITT and Turini plus a stomp on this race. Rogla would be just fine. Defending his position at the last stage. But overall it was just too much. He was way to lavish when it comes to building up accumulated fatigue and it took a toll. A day didn't go by where he wasn't maxing out. Due to being isolated or chasing his own or some other team ambitions.

They need to start using their biggest strengths more sparingly on longer (stage) races. And to strike only when needed. For example they don't need stage wins, Rogla really shouldn't result to stomp. Focus instead on crucial stages, where they can gain time. And on stages where they will need to respond and bring Pogi back.

Bottom line they need to start managing accumulated fatigue better.

 

[cellardoor]

@bNator

On PN i would say too frequent isolation was the main problem. Due to PN being a hard race. But the final toll was in my opinion that glorious stomp. This just messes with the body too much. And on top of that it didn't help JV being aggressive on the last stage.

I feel that JV should acknowledge that and rather sacrifice a stage win or two and to focus on the GC instead. When it comes to Rogla on a race such as the Tour.

I find it very difficult to believe that a 200m sprint took a huge toll on his energy reserves. This plays into the narrative that he has a recovery problem and should ride conservatively. I think the opposite, by keeping things tight he invites others to probe him and find his bad day (which everyone has in a GT imo). I think he should instead be looking to increase his advantage on his good days.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I find it very difficult to believe that a 200m sprint took a huge toll on his energy reserves. This plays into the narrative that he has a recovery problem and should ride conservatively. I think the opposite, by keeping things tight he invites others to probe him and find his bad day (which everyone has in a GT imo). I think he should instead be looking to increase his advantage on his good days.

On one day races this is not a big problem. On a stage race you must add that on top of everything else. Especially if you are not racing conservatively. In the next day to again perform on the best levels. They just need to stop doing this. Before Pogi it worked. Now they need to leave more in the tank and only focus on not to lose anything meaningful. On a stage such as a "queen stage".

As for in general finding it difficult to believe such sprint can take a substantial toll. IMHO you need to reevaluate on just how special such sprint is. Once you will accept that it will be easier to evaluate on just how big of an toll it can take.

 

[Red Rick]

I was going to mention this. Roglic has had two one day races where he wasn't really in the mix. Pogacar had the UAE Tour as prep for T-A. Pogacar has also stated that he's close to Tour de France form and if we take that at face value I'd be concerned about him holding that form until LBL.

Pog wasnt even 100% in LBL last year

 

[bNator]

On one day races this is not a big problem. On a stage race you must add that on top of everything else. Especially if you are not racing conservatively. In the next day to again perform on the best levels. They just need to stop doing this. Before Pogi it worked. Now they need to leave more in the tank and only focus on not to lose anything meaningful. On a stage such as a "queen stage".

As for in general finding it difficult to believe such sprint can take a substantial toll. IMHO you need to reevaluate on just how special such sprint is. Once you will accept that it will be easier to evaluate on just how big of an toll it can take.

The thing is: probably none of us know how that sprint affects nex-day performance in this specific case. And more importantly - TJV probably do know. I would assume they know what they are doing and have tested these scenarios in depth and can predict the response of Primož's body to that kind of stress better than anyone on this board. And they can probably estimate very well how a certain effort is going to affect next days/weeks performance.

 

[tobydawq]

I saw on Twitter somewhere (just looked again but couldn’t find) that Yates’ numbers were huge and Roglic’s bad day wasn’t far off. Obviously Roglic was at his limit unlike Pogacar but do think competition was at a different level, which made the comparison look much worse for Roglic. As others pointed out, I’d Yates could string together only good days for the Tour, he’d hang with Pogacar. This was a good day.

So Roglic is not a better climber than Van Aert?

 

[CyclistAbi]

The thing is: probably none of us know how that sprint affects nex-day performance in this specific case. And more importantly - TJV probably do know. I would assume they know what they are doing and have tested these scenarios in depth and can predict the response of Primož's body to that kind of stress better than anyone on this board. And they can probably estimate very well how a certain effort is going to affect next days/weeks performance.

In the end i would say it's not a rocket science.

P.S. After all the analyses done and conclusions and future possible strategies made. There is another aspect involved. Rogla fans signed up for the drama. They wouldn't have it any other way. For people that can't cope with a bit of drama. There are other options in the peloton. As for people saying Rogla has no chances at the Tour. After winning Paris–Nice. Well, maybe he can still bounce back at Grand Prix de Denain. Only one day remaining.

 

[Red Rick]

So Roglic is not a better climber than Van Aert?

Where does it say that?

Roglic' "bad" day being the 3rd best climber in a strong field isnt that bad. I was surprised by how high Yates numbers were considering the weather. Its also Van Aerts best climbing performance of his career IMO

 

[tobydawq]

Where does it say that?

Roglic' "bad" day being the 3rd best climber in a strong field isnt that bad. I was surprised by how high Yates numbers were considering the weather. Its also Van Aerts best climbing performance of his career IMO

If that performance was about as good as Roglic gets and he had trouble following Van Aert, then that conclusion would follow quite logically.

 

[No Risk No Glory]

Hello everyone! I‘m a newbie here and a big fan of Rogla, as you can probably tell by my nickname
Started to really watch cycling only last year, and the man who came back after such an unlucky Tour de France to claim Olympic Gold impressed me right away. And the Vuelta was awesome. Before that, I was beginning to feel interested in this sport but it‘s him who made me fall in love with it!
So I‘ve still got a lot to learn about and therefore beg your pardon for the silly questions that may come... And one of them is, I‘ve watched both documentaries about his first two Vuelta victories and was wondering if they filmed anything like that last year? Thought there were lots of cool episodes they could have showed!

P.S. I love the name of this thread, think it’s by far the coolest in this forum!

 

[Oldermanish]

I was going to mention this. Roglic has had two one day races where he wasn't really in the mix. Pogacar had the UAE Tour as prep for T-A. Pogacar has also stated that he's close to Tour de France form and if we take that at face value I'd be concerned about him holding that form until LBL.

Pogi is such an anomaly and young it's hard to know what his limits are for LBL. Maintaining peak through the end of July would be his concern, or should be. Roglic has built his form gradually to the first GT and then has had some recovery in the past.

 

[acm]

And one of them is, I‘ve watched both documentaries about his first two Vuelta victories and was wondering if they filmed anything like that last year? Thought there were lots of cool episodes they could have showed!

P.S. I love the name of this thread, think it’s by far the coolest in this forum!

No, sadly they didn't film a documentary about Vuelta, but only about TDF 2021 (Plan B - the fall & rise).

 

[CyclistAbi]

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As for the last day performance. I agree that it was not Rogla best performance ever. But for sure it wasn't the worst one either. Considering this was Rogla on a bad day. From GC competitors point of view i feel that overall he did show the most on this edition of PN. Hence he not only deserved to win he has earned it.

 

[No Risk No Glory]

No, sadly they didn't film a documentary about Vuelta, but only about TDF 2021 (Plan B - the fall & rise).

Ah I see. That’s a pity. Must admit I still don’t have the courage to watch their TdF documentaries, although The Fall & Rise looks very interesting and I quite like Jumbo Visma as a team. Perhaps I’ll go back and watch them when Roglic wins the TdF

 

[Gargamel35]

Ah I see. That’s a pity. Must admit I still don’t have the courage to watch their TdF documentaries, although The Fall & Rise looks very interesting and I quite like Jumbo Visma as a team. Perhaps I’ll go back and watch them when Roglic wins the TdF

I was actually surprised how little of Roglič was in that documentary. It was like...ok, here we are on TdF...and Roglič crashed...and fine, we move on. Done.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Any predictions for cobbles?

 

[Rackham]

Any predictions for cobbles?

Chute dans le peloton! chute à l'arrière!

Just kidding. He'll take it easy & learn. I still think cobbles are most certainly not his forte (he's too light), but it's just a matter of surviving that cobbled Tour de France stage this summer & today is part of that process.