I guess it's by now rather safe to say 2023 edition will be special.
P.S. Rogla using the numbers game. Against Pogi and Jonas.
P.S. Rogla using the numbers game. Against Pogi and Jonas.
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Ineos had the full team in stage 5 including Roubaix winner and Geraint still crashed at the same time Roglic did. Switch teams and Roglic still goes down. Pogacar didn't had any team, yet managed to even win time. Team's protection is not failproof sometimes even teammates can take you down like Benoot did with Vingegaard.
When was Pidcock focused on Geraint's GC? Pidcock has contract until 2027 and aparently gets 5 million in his new contract. No way he is gonna be a domestique or he misses TdF at that price tag. Geraint and Bernal are gonna focus on GC, their own, they're not gonna bury themselves for Roglic. Apart from some weak pulls from Yates and Martinez, Geraint didn't have any support. Guys like Van Aert, Kuss or McNulty were better than the entire Ineos team. Everyone emphasized in the last week how Ineos had the full team and they could pull some things, they were nowhere to be found.
The second fact is not that helpful as you think it is. The 1-2 strategy is gonna be harder to pull bc everyone learned from it. Even if Roglic leaves, both UAE and TJV will have at least 2 leaders high. Secondary leaders would respond to these long range attacks and they will also have satellite riders. Imagine if Pog had Almeida to respond to Roglic's attacks then carry him few kms on Granon, how much time will he save.
Remember Giro 2019, how Landa was supposedly stronger, or Giro 2020 where Geraint was better than Tao. If Roglic is back to his Vuelta 2021 form, he has a chance against Jonas, the Tour starts in Basque Country, his playground. If Prudhomme gets scared of Jonas, they might put more explosive climbs where Roglic is better.
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In any case if Roglič wants to win the Tour. He will need to beat both Pogi and Jonas. In my opinion JV won't help him with that. At JV they likely believe he will make the sacrifice each year for Jonas. All their planning will go in this direction. Regardless of what they will be telling Roglič before the race. Hence hypothetically if he decides to sign for Ineos. He won't be in worse position. And lets not forget Ineos was the best team at this Tour edition. They just don't have the edge. On why Ineos cyclists didn't do more for Thomas. As Thomas himself said he won't chase Pogačar and Vingegaard up the hill. Hence what would be the point.
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Ineos was NOT the best team in that Tour. They just won a classification nobody (bar Movistar) gives a damn about. TJV were the best team. UAE even with limited numbers, did well too. Heck, even Gaudu's FDJ were better than Ineos imo.
Certainly, Roglic wouldn't be better at Ineos. As your point goes, basically demanding full support for Roglic, he has to be in a team where he is the sole leader. Otherwise he may be in a similar situation as in stage five.
We can always discuss metrics. Officially hence Ineos was the best. On top of that Martínez struggled. Healthy Martínez makes difference. As for you mentioning UAE. In the category of best teams. If you claim that then you have to admit that your metrics are a bit off? And yes. At Ineos i would expect for Roglič to be the sole leader at Tour 2023. What would otherwise be the point? That is for both. For Roglič and Ineos? If the switch happens then this goes without saying.
It could end up as a flop. There are no guarantees. But on the other hand it could end up as the switch Michael Schumacher made to Ferrari. In any case it can't be worse for Roglič. Compared to JV option. That is if not much would change in comparison to this year edition. But as this is cycling. Who knows as in the end maybe Jonas will sign for Ineos. My point is he can't be in worse position. In teams such as Ineos or Groupama-FDJ. Then he is at JV. That is if he wants to win the Tour. The rest should likely be fine in any team.
We'll see.
Ineos were what they needed to be. G can't compete with Jonas and pogi, and I don't mean that badly, he would agree and he was on great form. You can't deny that if they had Roglic they would have ridden a very different race. But it is also true, that you can't win the tour if you consistently crash heavily in week one - ask Richie Porte.
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Not really, no. Ineos were pretty much non existent. G's podium is solely down to him being the 3rd best rider in the race. He'd finish 3rd at most of the teams, probably even at BnB.
You see. Saying stuff like Ineos and B&B Hotels are basically the same teams. You have to understand that you will have a hard time selling that. But OK. If somebody buys it then it's on them.
I think you're just getting biased against Jumbo on a personal level. Team just won 6 stages, 2 jerseys, numerous of podiums while losing 2 important domestiques before the last week and you're claiming about different metrics? Really?
UAE had riders pulling for Pog more other than Ineos for Thomas and if Martinez makes a difference, all the DNF'ed UAE domestiques makes a difference as well.
As for Roglic (hypothetically) being at Ineos as a sole leader, that's exactly 0 chance, given how crash prone he is.
Like it or not, the best chance for Roglic to actually win the Tour is Jumbo. For that, he has to stay on his bike first and the team is not responsible for that
Lool..When did I say they're the same team?
All I said was, for Thomas it wouldn't make a difference the team he rides for and even with much weaker team, he'd be third.
I agree with this. Martinez and Yates were of little help to G.
Right there. By saying Thomas would be third in any team. That is basically saying they are all the same teams. Reducing Ineos to scrap. At the same time you claim UAE was superior to Ineos. But you do understand that if UAE would be a stronger team then stage 11 would likely never have happened? Lets say if Pogi would be riding for Ineos. Or likely if he would have had Almeida.
As for you claim on how Roglič can only win the Tour at JV. And a few words before that saying he was a mere domestique. I don't have problems if you feel that way. Just don't call other people as being biased then.
Martínez had health issues. And Thomas himself said he won't chase the duo up the hill.
No. They are NOT the same teams. All I'm saying is, Thomas was the third best rider in that Tour, by a mile behind the top 4 and mile ahead the 4th. Hense why a weaker team doesn't change his overall result. It's not like he'd fight Vingo with prime Sky. Not like he'd drop 7 minutes to Gaudu in a worse team.
As for stage 11, it would likely happen, unless UAE has strong enough secondary leader to follow Roglic. And they were not that weak. Soler came to Pog mid Galibier, Majka was untill 5 km oh Grannon. It's just Pogacar thinking he is the strongest.
As for Roglic being domestique for the Tour, he was once he dropped 14 minutes behind, even he knows that. If next year Vingo falls and Roglic fights with Pog, Vingegaard will be domestique, plain and simple. That's how team dynamics work in a race.. But if you want full support, you have to stay on your bike first. No team or support can guarantee you that.
@YavorD
I feel that you underestimate the know-how and access to best materials ... In my opinion Thomas would struggle much more in other teams you mentioned. And as said Thomas said he won't chase the duo up the hill. Having the Giro level motivated Martínez would hence not change much for him.
As for UAE indeed if they were stronger then stage 11 would like not have happened.
As for Roglič vs Jonas. I agree that if Roglič stays at JV and does Tour 2023 and finds himself ahead. Then Jonas will work for him. BUT his team will be plotting against such scenario from the get-go.
Bottom line if Roglič is not interested in winning the Tour anymore. Then he will mange just fine. In JV or any decent team. If he is still interested. Then he will need to beat at minimum Pogačar, Vingegaard and Jumbo–Visma. Hypothetically Ineos hence is a viable option. Beating JV from within is an option too. But in my opinion a harder option. As in pro cycling team matters a whole lot and if team is not fully behind you then good luck with that.
I feel that you underestimate the know-how and access to best materials ... In my opinion Thomas would struggle much more in other teams you mentioned. And as said Thomas said he won't chase the duo up the hill. Having the Giro level motivated Martínez would hence not change much for him.
As for UAE indeed if they were stronger then stage 11 would like not have happened.
As for Roglič vs Jonas. I agree that if Roglič stays at JV and does Tour 2023 and finds himself ahead. Then Jonas will work for him. BUT his team will be plotting against such scenario from the get-go.
Bottom line if Roglič is not interested in winning the Tour anymore. Then he will mange just fine. In JV or any decent team. If he is still interested. Then he will need to beat at minimum Pogačar, Vingegaard and Jumbo–Visma. Hypothetically Ineos hence is a viable option. Beating JV from within is an option too. But in my opinion a harder option. As in pro cycling team matters a whole lot and if team is not fully behind you then good luck with that.
It originally came from Raymond Kerckhoffs in a WielerFlits article: Nederlandse en Sloveense vlag achter Tourzege Jonas Vingegaard | WielerFlits
That's the source everyone (& every outlet) is quoting (although in his article, he himself quoted Radio Peloton).
Kerckhoffs for what it's worth is followed by Jumbo Visma & Richard Plugge on Twitter, so I'll presume he's not just spreading rubbish (or else he'd soon lose credibility). Of course the story remains merely a 'rumor', so a pinch of salt is required as always.
No. It's for now a hypothetical discussion. One of the options worth considering. If there is anything worth considering about.
And lets not forget his bike position. Next year likely positioned somewhere behind Kuss already. On his back wheel.
Vinge got some special royal treatment. He flew home on a private jet. Roglič probably had to go home in his motor home.
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