- Jan 8, 2020
- 5,362
- 6,127
- 18,180
I see your point about Pog having to mark both Vingegaard and Roglic would be to Jumbo-Visma's advantage. Last year that was already the plan and the Dutch team was in the imcomfortable position of trying to get things sorted out so that Vingo could be leader, cleanly resolved, however,by Roglic's fall. This year it's different. Vingegaard will go into the Tour as undisputed team leader. So, depending on Roglic's level, should he actually start the Tour, how do you utilize the Slovenian? As a domestique deluxe? Do you send him up the road on a mountain stage to force UAE to work and then have Vingegaard counter? Do you use him to try and isolate Pog like last year on the Galibier, to then have Vingegaard make a monster attack? I suppose it also depends on how much say in the matter Vingegaard has in team plans and race strategies.
Horner said he thought Roglic's light schedule before the Giro reminds him of how he arrived at the 2013 Vuelta rested and fresh, which he carried through Worlds. However, the Giro is going to be way harder than anything Horner did before the Vuelta. So that means Roglic would show up at the Tour unlike Horner in the 2013 Vuelta. This is why I found his analogy so flawed.
Last edited:
- Feb 20, 2012
- 53,923
- 44,308
- 28,180
Yeah, Roglic coming out of the Giro is either a pure domestique or a weakened 2nd leader who doesn't hold much leverage when he attacks over Pogacar.
I think Roglic might still ressent being put away for obvious reasons and eagers going for the Tour. Like he has a point to prove.
Strategically, he ought to go to the Vuelta and enlarge his already brutal palmares.
Pogacar fell in a trap when he pursuited Roglic in the Granon. I doubt he would do that again with Giro legged Roglic.
Strategically, he ought to go to the Vuelta and enlarge his already brutal palmares.
Pogacar fell in a trap when he pursuited Roglic in the Granon. I doubt he would do that again with Giro legged Roglic.
- Jul 7, 2013
- 8,085
- 14,931
- 23,180
It's pretty known though: Las Canadas del Teide. He likely did one of those rides with huge V profile: 2400 m -> 0 m (small rest at the sea) -> ride back to 2400 m. Judging by the sun angle (early afternoon) and his direction he's almost at the end of training heading towards his hotel. Tenerife is a perfect place for training: all-year round good weather, and the possibility of night sleep above 2000 m and intense training at low and at high altitude.
Last edited:
Top 10 Climbers for the 2023 Season - Lanterne Rouge
The 2022 cycling season was full of top level climbing performances with many records broken and new climbers bursting onto the scene. The list of Top 10 climbing performances of 2022 was dominated by Evenepoel and Vingegaard but will the same riders dominate the long ascents in WorldTour races...
lanternerouge.com
Roglic behind Jay Vine is downright disrespectful.
- Jan 31, 2016
- 3,611
- 6,035
- 19,180
I would wager the opposite; that he will be riding the Giro to confirm form as much as possible. Certainly he and his trainer knows best but; if that was the first plan and he rides well he'll be in the Tour whether he wins the Giro or not. He may also be an unmanageable element for the other Tour teams combined with his brothers-in arms. It may look like LaVie Clare '86 to the competition.
@Extinction
If both Rogla and Jonas would end up at the Tour 2023. Then in my opinion the strategy would be to try to make Pogi chose. And here JV doesn't have a say over the outcome.
On why Horner might feel the way he does. You have to understand that in 2022 season. Roglič already proved it could be done. Roglič and Jonas cracked Pogi at the Tour. And after Roglič cracked Evenpoel (climbing) at the Vuelta.
In season 2023 he would hence just need to repeat that. And obviously finish both races healthy. As for haybale or sprinter assisted crashing. There are some statistical limits here to. It's just not reasonable to expect for that to happen in 2023 season.
An additional important factor and takeaway from 2022 season is. The limits are now known. You can express them in numbers. All involved riders now know where the limits are and what it takes to win. No more guessing needed.
All in all Giro really is the key here. If Roglič will win and his team will take some burden off. Like lets say deliver him to sprints for bonus seconds. Preventing Evenpoel to initiate long range attacks. Then medium amount of effort would be needed. And i feel that in such scenario Roglič can recover and prepare to be in good form for the Tour. Likely a couple of days of holiday would be at play too. Like lets say two.
But lets do Catalunya first. And build on that.
If both Rogla and Jonas would end up at the Tour 2023. Then in my opinion the strategy would be to try to make Pogi chose. And here JV doesn't have a say over the outcome.
On why Horner might feel the way he does. You have to understand that in 2022 season. Roglič already proved it could be done. Roglič and Jonas cracked Pogi at the Tour. And after Roglič cracked Evenpoel (climbing) at the Vuelta.
In season 2023 he would hence just need to repeat that. And obviously finish both races healthy. As for haybale or sprinter assisted crashing. There are some statistical limits here to. It's just not reasonable to expect for that to happen in 2023 season.
An additional important factor and takeaway from 2022 season is. The limits are now known. You can express them in numbers. All involved riders now know where the limits are and what it takes to win. No more guessing needed.
All in all Giro really is the key here. If Roglič will win and his team will take some burden off. Like lets say deliver him to sprints for bonus seconds. Preventing Evenpoel to initiate long range attacks. Then medium amount of effort would be needed. And i feel that in such scenario Roglič can recover and prepare to be in good form for the Tour. Likely a couple of days of holiday would be at play too. Like lets say two.
But lets do Catalunya first. And build on that.
- Aug 13, 2011
- 7,883
- 12,034
- 23,180
If I was Pog I’d just let Roglic go. I wouldn’t play those games again and do my own thing with Vingegaard. We could then see if Vinge is fine with Rolgic gaining time.
- Jan 31, 2016
- 3,611
- 6,035
- 19,180
Stage 16 is a 22km ITT. I'm not sure anyone can afford to let either of them gain time. Sepp Kuss is looking good as is....the entire team. It'll be a test of choices, for sure but they'll both make him work for it.
- Jan 8, 2020
- 5,362
- 6,127
- 18,180
I think if Jonas continues to replicate his climbing dominance, Jumbo-Visma would be unwise to send Primos to the Tour after the Giro with anything but a support role, if they send him at all. For one thing it would show little confidence in Vingegaard, the only one who can really drop Pogacar. Secondly, it won't be like La Vie Clare '86, because Roglic is the Hinault without Hinault's palmarès or prestige within the team, Vingegaard the Lemond in Hinault's position of the pecking order, if that makes sense. In other words, Vingegaard is younger, stronger and will get full support, unless something drastic happens. He has effectively already pushed Roglic out of the GC team leadership role, which is why Jonas is going to the Tour, Primos the Giro. Thus Jumbo-Visma, if Vingegaard is capable of out-performing the rest on the climbs, would be crazy to have a loose canon in Roglic at the Tour the way Hinault was on La Vie Clare '86. This is why I say it's not gonna happen. Of course, much in the way of the unforeseen can occur in cycling, Jonas could crash, get sick at the wrong moment, but bar this I can't see him not having undisputed team leadership at the Tour.
Last edited:
- Jun 7, 2011
- 20,975
- 20,309
- 28,180
Early season dominance doesn't necessarily translate into TDF dominance, ask Roglic, ask Pogacar. Ideally (for the team) his form permitting, they would bring Roglic in a free role and see what happens. Either he comes good and they can once again try to tag team Pogacar, or he doesn't come good and he will still be a valuable helper for Vingegaard, likely better than anyone else they have on the team. In any case, if Vingegaard ends up this dominant as you assume he will, he should have no issue claiming team authority on the road over a rider who has already finished a GT two months earlier.
- Jan 8, 2020
- 5,362
- 6,127
- 18,180
To the bolded, Jonas cracked Pogacar after the latter stupidly followed an attack by Roglic, which clearly was designed as part of a flurry of jabs intended to set up the KO punch by Vingegaard. However, in Jonas's form that day he would have dropped Tadej anyway, just perhaps gaining less time in the end, but still enough to win the Tour. Secondly Roglic did not crack Evenepoel, but dropped him after the Belgian crashed heavily leading to his only well-managed bad day of the Vuelta. When someone "cracks," he ships big time, the GC is over, instead Evenepoel was dropped for 1:01 or something like that, with Mas somewhat further ahead, who a recovered from the crash Remco went on to beat again on the last serious MTF. Hence, Evenepoel experienced a temporary setback and clearly would have prevailed in the end regardless.
At any rate, back to Roglic's hypothetical potential/role at the Tour, I find this whole discussion, which was triggered by some knucklehead comments by Chris Horner, rather silly, because bar mishap Vingegaard is going to be the undisputed team leader at the Tour. He has to be, he is younger and stronger than Roglic, as well as, unlike Primos, a proven past winner of the Grand Bouclé. At 33, Roglic can hope to win the Giro, but with a healthy and exclusively prepared Vingegaard in top shape for the Tour, I can't even believe people are talking about Roglic's "possibilities at the Tour," a race in which at present he is not even designated to participate.
Now as far as Roglic winning the Giro against Evenepoel with "medium effort" is concerned. You can't be serious, can you? Do you actually think that with Remco a year older, with last season in his legs and with his talent, not to mention with three ITTs of the Corsa Rosa, Roglic's just going to be teed-up by his team to sprint away from the Belgian and win the Giro without too much effort, and all of this despite a particularly hard third week? Well, I suppose anyone can harbor fantasies, and in cycling stranger things have happened, but come on man that just seems ridiculous! Yet I'm willing to entertain all of this and reassess things after the Giro, but I can't at the moment think any of what you (and Horner) suggest could take place actually will.
This all seems reasonable. Roglic is great, or was great (TBD on current state), but if he beats Remco in the Giro, either Remco will have crashed or completely messed up his pre, OR Roglic will have gone very, very deep to do so. He will not have anything left for the Tour. He could be a highly impactful super dom for sure, but he will not win.
Contador was very strong in 2015 after his 2014 renaissance, and he faced inferior opponents in Aru and Landa, and he had to dig way too deep to them successfully contest the Tour. Granted, he crashed a few times as he was want to do, but Roglic will probably crash too. And in any case, neither Froome or Dumoulin could complete the double even though that year’s Tour winner, GT, had climbing performances that quantitatively paled in comparison to Pogi or Vingo.
- Jan 8, 2020
- 5,362
- 6,127
- 18,180
To the bolded, let's see what transpires from here on out, Pogacar came out swinging and Vingegaard has responded in kind, which is fantastic mind you. It shows they both are fired up and want to strike early and hard, before the big showdown in July. I'd wager that Jumbo-Visma and UAE know what they are doing and so, rest assured, they will by firing on all cylinders, nay with even more power, at the Tour.
Moreover, I think each rider is different, but with Vingegaard you may now (as we already saw last year) get peak performances in the mountains that are superior to the other two. This is because he truly only came into his own last year, despite already having shown more than promising signs at the 2021 Tour. Of course this must be seen, however, potentially I see him as having a larger margin for improvement than certainly a 33 year-olds Roglic and even Pogacar, who already broke out in 2019 (3rd at the Vuelta with 3 stage wins) and of course 2020 that was confirmed in 2021, whilst 2022 wasn't too shabby either.
I also just don't see Roglic coming out of a really hard Giro against Evenepoel (but also Thomas and a few others), especially if Primos triumphs, which is not to be excluded if in top shape, with enough reserves to tackle the Tour in a position of strength within the team. I just think the Giro will be too draining and, besides, I predict Jonas will be even stronger and better prepared for this year's Tour.
But I guess if having a two-pronged attack against Pogacar worked for Jumbo-Visma last year at the Tour, they could opt for the same strategy again this year. I just see this as less likely, because, unlike last year, Roglic is going to try to win the Giro before and Vingegaard I bet will be just too strong to go in with the same approach. Also because, I see Jumbo-Visma looking at Jonas as the next 5 Tour de France winner, whereas Roglic is simply getting too old. It's a harsh reality, but such it is with top level sport. No matter how good one has been, as soon as someone better comes along one is demoted.
At any rate, the up and coming battles at PN, Catalunya and then the Giro should give us enough entertainment to, for the time being, not think about the Tour.
Last edited:
- Jun 7, 2011
- 20,975
- 20,309
- 28,180
Main reason why Pogacar lost last year was because he was racing like an idiot. Let's wait and see before declaring Vingegaard superior just yet. I also clearly stated a condition for Roglic's TDF participation: his form permitting.
- Jul 7, 2013
- 8,085
- 14,931
- 23,180
I think it's actually the opposite. Roglic proved he's able to be competitive in two GTs in a row. If he rides himself into form during the Giro then he can be in a very good form during the Tour (given the freshness factor he will have this year).
- Jan 8, 2020
- 5,362
- 6,127
- 18,180
Oh, I'm waiting to see alright. My sense is that Vingegaard will go thermonuclear is all, but yes Pogacar if he is super, which doubtless he will be, could win too. In any case, it could be a battle for the ages.
- Feb 20, 2012
- 53,923
- 44,308
- 28,180
I think the gaps were too big to by strategic blundering on the Galibier alone. Also think the Hautacam gap was way bigger than you can explain by just "Pogacar did more work than Vingegaard". Also getting beaten soundly in the TT doesn't speak well for Pog.
But that was 2022. 2023 could easily be different. I can't really think of consecutive Tours where the 2 main contenders had the exact same levels relative to each other.
- Jun 7, 2011
- 20,975
- 20,309
- 28,180
- Feb 20, 2012
- 53,923
- 44,308
- 28,180
Peyragudes and Planche were nearly identical between the two though.
Only thing for Pogacar is that he may have really suffered from his crash on both Hautacam and in the ITT.
Granon was obviously because of his own poor decisions cause he should never not get 2nd on that stage based on the entire rest of the Tour.
- Jun 7, 2011
- 20,975
- 20,309
- 28,180
He had been showboating well before the first uppercut.
TRENDING THREADS
-
World Championship 2025: Men’s RR, September 28- Started by Berniece
- Replies: 2K
-
Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread- Started by DNP-Old
- Replies: 35K
-
Teams & Riders Tadej Pogačar discussion thread- Started by Lequack
- Replies: 41K
-
Il Lombardia 2025, monument, October 11
- Started by Krzysztof_O
- Replies: 792
-
Teams & Riders The Great Big Cycling Transfers, Extensions, and Rumours Thread- Started by RedheadDane
- Replies: 13K
-
European Championship 2025: Men’s RR, October 5- Started by Berniece
- Replies: 854
-
Facebook
Twitter
Instagram