Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[theyoungest]

Pogačar just won his national ITT going over a minute faster than he did in 2020 as well (same parcours). Numbers like this don't tell the full story, as much as people enjoying gawking over them. Rog also did 'career best' numbers on Lo Port in Catalunya but I won't extrapolate that into broader conclusions regarding his chances elsewhere, i.e. each race is different, even when it's raced on the same roads.

You can't read too much into these different numbers, agreed. Just like I don't care about Strava records. But on 3 steep kilometres there's really not a lot of factors that can influence the race, other than the pure power of the riders. Also, if there's anyone who can judge whether Roglic really has a chance against Vingegaard, it's the Jumbo coaches, and I think they know he actually doesn't. Vingegaard is currently the best rider in the world on 20 minute plus efforts.

Don't get me wrong, there would be a wonderful redemption arc in Roglic winning the Tour, but the way for him to do it would be tactically and not by sheer power. Staying at Jumbo offers him that tactical option.

 

[Rackham]

You can't read too much into these different numbers, agreed. Just like I don't care about Strava records. But on 3 steep kilometres there's really not a lot of factors that can influence the race, other than the pure power of the riders. Also, if there's anyone who can judge whether Roglic really has a chance against Vingegaard, it's the Jumbo coaches, and I think they know he actually doesn't. Vingegaard is currently the best rider in the world on 20 minute plus efforts.

Don't get me wrong, there would be a wonderful redemption arc in Roglic winning the Tour, but the way for him to do it would be tactically and not by sheer power. Staying at Jumbo offers him that tactical option.

I remember some of the stories which emerged after the Olympics ITT, i.e. for example when we learned that Jumbo's performance people apparently told Rog not to race the ITT because their data suggested he stood no chance (words to that effect). So the science is not infallible (Rog himself has said there's an element of cycling which is beyond the control of watts & data, aka instinct). There was also another little anecdote from Tom Dumoulin who said Roglič had absolutely sh*t numbers in training just a few days before the 2020 TdF. These riders are not robots & the teams cannot accurately predict everything.

So the most important part for Rog is to stay on his bike, basically (even the recent Giro is a difficult gauge because he crashed hard in the second week & carried that injury until the end). If he prepares for the Tour correctly (no injuries beforehand, like in his 2022 season) & doesn't crash during the Tour itself, then we could see what's what.

Ineos have made 2 GC leader work many times.

Besides, I don't think Roglic can leave Jumbo and not get worse. IMO being 2nd fiddle to Vingegaard is still his best bet to win the Tour.

It'll be a question for the team to answer in the autumn. There are pros & cons to every scenario, I think. Vingegaard probably also has a say on the matter as well.

One thing is for sure, Rog is better than Kelderman (who got dropped like a rock yesterday & no one cared). I also think he could climb Marie Blanque faster than Sepp Kuss, i.e. certainly when his legs are working properly. So my conclusion is Rog in good shape could have dropped yesterday's Pog.

 

[theyoungest]

I remember some of the stories which emerged after the Olympics ITT, i.e. for example when we learned that Jumbo's performance people apparently told Rog not to race the ITT because their data suggested he stood no chance (words to that effect). So the science is not infallible (Rog himself has said there's an element of cycling which is beyond the control of watts & data, aka instinct). There was also another little anecdote from Tom Dumoulin who said Roglič had absolutely sh*t numbers in training just a few days before the 2020 TdF. These riders are not robots & the teams cannot accurately predict everything.

So the most important part for Rog is to stay on his bike, basically (even the recent Giro is a difficult gauge because he crashed hard in the second week & carried that injury until the end). If he prepares for the Tour correctly (no injuries beforehand, like in his 2022 season) & doesn't crash during the Tour itself, then we could see what's what.



It'll be a question for the team to answer in the autumn. There are pros & cons to every scenario, I think. Vingegaard probably also has a say on the matter as well.

One thing is for sure, Rog is better than Kelderman (who got dropped like a rock yesterday & no one cared). I also think he could climb Marie Blanque faster than Sepp Kuss, i.e. certainly when his legs are working properly. So my conclusion is Rog in good shape could have dropped yesterday's Pog.

I think you're mixing up anecdotes and freely interpreting them. Roglic' trainer was indeed a bit worried for his TT in Tokyo but it was Roglic himself who nearly offered up his spot in the TT to someone else because he felt he wasn't yet good enough.

Roglic is better than Kelderman, I don't think anyone doubts that, but I also don't think anyone thinks Kelderman has a chance of winning the Tour so I'm not sure what you're trying to say. In retrospect it's probably good for Roglic that it was Kuss and not Kelderman who accompanied him in the Giro, because Kuss saved his a.ss and I doubt Kelderman could have done the same.

As for Roglic dropping Pogi yesterday, well, maybe, although there's no real reason to assume that as I've basically never seen Roglic doing such an impressive attack on a climb. That's just not where his strength lies.

 

[Red Rick]

I remember some of the stories which emerged after the Olympics ITT, i.e. for example when we learned that Jumbo's performance people apparently told Rog not to race the ITT because their data suggested he stood no chance (words to that effect). So the science is not infallible (Rog himself has said there's an element of cycling which is beyond the control of watts & data, aka instinct). There was also another little anecdote from Tom Dumoulin who said Roglič had absolutely sh*t numbers in training just a few days before the 2020 TdF. These riders are not robots & the teams cannot accurately predict everything.

So the most important part for Rog is to stay on his bike, basically (even the recent Giro is a difficult gauge because he crashed hard in the second week & carried that injury until the end). If he prepares for the Tour correctly (no injuries beforehand, like in his 2022 season) & doesn't crash during the Tour itself, then we could see what's what.



It'll be a question for the team to answer in the autumn. There are pros & cons to every scenario, I think. Vingegaard probably also has a say on the matter as well.

One thing is for sure, Rog is better than Kelderman (who got dropped like a rock yesterday & no one cared). I also think he could climb Marie Blanque faster than Sepp Kuss, i.e. certainly when his legs are working properly. So my conclusion is Rog in good shape could have dropped yesterday's Pog.

Yeah Kuss coming back to Pogacar IMO says heaps about Pogs level.

 

[Rackham]

I think you're mixing up anecdotes and freely interpreting them. Roglic' trainer was indeed a bit worried for his TT in Tokyo but it was Roglic himself who nearly offered up his spot in the TT to someone else because he felt he wasn't yet good enough.

Roglic is better than Kelderman, I don't think anyone doubts that, but I also don't think anyone thinks Kelderman has a chance of winning the Tour so I'm not sure what you're trying to say. In retrospect it's probably good for Roglic that it was Kuss and not Kelderman who accompanied him in the Giro, because Kuss saved his a.ss and I doubt Kelderman could have done the same.

As for Roglic dropping Pogi yesterday, well, maybe, although there's no real reason to assume that as I've basically never seen Roglic doing such an impressive attack on a climb. That's just not where his strength lies.

Roglič has dropped Pog before on a climb. In 2020 he dropped him on Loze (anecdotal & a few years ago, maybe, but it did happen). He also dropped Evenepoel on stage 8 of the recent Giro. There's numerous examples.

The point about Kelderman is he's in the Tour as mountain domestique, yet Rog is clearly superior. The issue for Jumbo is how do they take a better rider than Kelderman & fit him into the team, aka a rider who also wants some protection & status for himself? That's probably what they couldn't agree on after the Giro (i.e. when Rog said he discussed doing the Tour but couldn't reach an agreement with the team).

If that question cannot be solved in the autumn (when they start to establish the season goals for next year), then it might be time to say goodbye to Jumbo. And regarding the performance scientists at Jumbo, I'm simply saying we have examples where their data wasn't omnipotent, i.e. there's an element of 'unknown' in all sporting performances which teams cannot accurately predict.

It means if Rog is on a good day & Vinge has a bad day (like Pog had yesterday, or like Vingegaard himself had in Paris-Nice in March), then suddenly the tables are turned. It's why we keep on watching, basically. I mean there's still 'uncertainty' in this sport, no matter how people like to talk about numbers & treat the science like gospel.

 

[theyoungest]

Roglič has dropped Pog before on a climb. In 2020 he dropped him on Loze (anecdotal & a few years ago, maybe, but it did happen). He also dropped Evenepoel on stage 8 of the recent Giro. There's numerous examples.

The point about Kelderman is he's in the Tour as mountain domestique, yet Rog is clearly superior. The issue for Jumbo is how do they take a better rider than Kelderman & fit him into the team, aka a rider who also wants some protection & status for himself? That's probably what they couldn't agree on after the Giro (i.e. when Rog said he discussed doing the Tour but couldn't reach an agreement with the team).

If that question cannot be solved in the autumn (when they start to establish the season goals for next year), then it might be time to say goodbye to Jumbo. And regarding the performance scientists at Jumbo, I'm simply saying we have examples where their data wasn't omnipotent, i.e. there's an element of 'unknown' in all sporting performances which teams cannot accurately predict.

It means if Rog is on a good day & Vinge has a bad day (like Pog had yesterday, or like Vingegaard himself had in Paris-Nice in March), then suddenly the tables are turned. It's why we keep on watching, basically. I mean there's still 'uncertainty' in this sport, no matter how people like to talk about numbers & treat the science like gospel.

Of course there are always uncertainties, like we can't be certain that Vingegaard wins this year's Tour because anything can happen. But if you're giving that as a reason why Roglic could still win the Tour you're basically admitting that he needs an "anything can happen" scenario rather than simply being the best. I just don't see how leaving Jumbo would increase the chances of such a scenario for Roglic.

You're also making it seem like Jumbo are a bunch of scientists in a lab pushing buttons and pulling plugs. The reason that his trainer worries about Roglic is that he knows him very well and has worked with him for 7 years now, not that he looked at his data and saw that a few numbers were not quite up to par.

 

[Divergence]

Vingo has never been better or looked better than Rog except during last year's Dauphine at one single stage. And Rog was recovering from an injury sustained at the Basque Country.
I think prime Rog puts 30sec into Vingo yesterday and probably catches Jai and wins the stage.
So, hopefully, either JV come to their senses and send Rog as a leader at the Tour or he leaves the team and wins for another one.
Considering Rog has been their most prolific rider for the past 5-6 years I would be more interested in the second option because it would also be fun to watch JV in disarray when they cannot win a single monument or a GT.

 

[Rackham]

Add world championship and that's it.

He will ride TdF 2024. The only question is in which team.

When I see G Thomas & the level he had in the Giro, it tells me there wouldn't necessarily be a drop off in terms of performance for Roglič at Ineos.

I mention Ineos because they did actually really enquire about signing him last year (which Zeeman refused). They have a gaping hole in their team in terms of GC leaders, hence why their name always comes up first in any potential transfer conversations.

Of course there are always uncertainties, like we can't be certain that Vingegaard wins this year's Tour because anything can happen. But if you're giving that as a reason why Roglic could still win the Tour you're basically admitting that he needs an "anything can happen" scenario rather than simply being the best. I just don't see how leaving Jumbo would increase the chances of such a scenario for Roglic.

Roglič has done enough to deserve a leadership role at the Tour simply based on who he is & what his overall level is (good days & bad days included), not just on what the science says or on 'certainties'.

If Carapaz got leadership in a team for the Tour (& Hindley, Gaudu, Skjelmose & even Bernal etc. have protected status), then Rog's participation in the Tour cannot be dependent on reaching an impossible & unreachable 'scientific' standard, i.e. a sort of "show us your numbers are as good as Vingegaard's or f off" sort of deal. That's not cool. Especially considering no one else on the Tour start list (certainly team leaders) have their positions under review based on such lofty preconditions. Not even Pog is held to such a standard.

That's my point here, i.e. Rog deserves a shot at the Tour. Simples. Irrespective of whether people say Vingegaard is better. There's no way an athlete should be barred from competing for his dream goal 'just because' science says his rival is better. That's the antithesis of sport IMO.

 

[Barnacle Bill]

I'm sure JV would far rather keep Rog than see him strengthen a rival team, but from my perspective as a mere viewer I'd love to see the 2024 TDF with all the main contenders of this era going head to head with full team support. Ving, Pog, Rog, Remco, Hindley... (even other former GT winners like Carapaz and TGH given the latter's move and presumed team leadership). But time marches on and it's starting to feel like one of those heayweight boxing unification fights which never happens while the contenders are still in their prime, wouldn't be surprised to see Remco and Rog in the Giro again.

The Ineos situation is really interesting if both TGH and Rodriguez are leaving, as you say there's a massive GC leadership gap there.

 

[bNator]

I actually think Roglic has a better chance at beating Vinge than Pog even though Pog is a better rider. It’s just the risk he’s willing to take (that Pog isn’t yet) which could put him in a beneficial situation.

But he should switch teams now - there’s no doubt about that anymore. There will be no beneficial situation for him while in TJV. He will be the dom, hoping for Vinge’s bad luck. A bad idea IMO. If he really only sees Tour as a challenge, switch teams and risk losing performance due to worse methodology. Still a better prospect than waiting for Vinge’s bad luck. Especially from the psychological aspect.

 

[Divergence]

I'm sure JV would far rather keep Rog than see him strengthen a rival team, but from my perspective as a mere viewer I'd love to see the 2024 TDF with all the main contenders of this era going head to head with full team support. Ving, Pog, Rog, Remco, Hindley... (even other former GT winners like Carapaz and TGH given the latter's move and presumed team leadership). But time marches on and it's starting to feel like one of those heayweight boxing unification fights which never happens while the contenders are still in their prime, wouldn't be surprised to see Remco and Rog in the Giro again.

The Ineos situation is really interesting if both TGH and Rodriguez are leaving, as you say there's a massive GC leadership gap there.

From Rog's perspective JV have lost their credibility after they denied him a Tour sport this year. Therefore, whether they want something now or not should not be any of Rog's concern and, consequently he should switch teams.
I am hoping for a TdF24 with all of the best riders participating as well.

I actually think Roglic has a better chance at beating Vinge than Pog even though Pog is a better rider. It’s just the risk he’s willing to take (that Pog isn’t yet) which could put him in a beneficial situation.

But he should switch teams now - there’s no doubt about that anymore. There will be no beneficial situation for him while in TJV. He will be the dom, hoping for Vinge’s bad luck. A bad idea IMO. If he really only sees Tour as a challenge, switch teams and risk losing performance due to worse methodology. Still a better prospect than waiting for Vinge’s bad luck. Especially from the psychological aspect.

I believe Ineos's approach and team tactics are superior to Jumbo, so if he could sign for them I see it as an improvement in terms of equipment and training.

 

[Red Rick]

Hope is on the horizon

Vingegaards wife talking about Jonas doing the Giro-Tour double (actually talks about the triple)

 

[Divergence]

Hope is on the horizon

Vingegaards wife talking about Jonas doing the Giro-Tour double (actually talks about the triple)

Let us see him win this Tour first

 

[CyclistAbi]

Regarding the future Tour leadership tensions in the team. Giro-Tour double by Jonas ... I still feel it's premature to make such conclusions. After the stage 5. Lets first see how this years edition unfolds.

All in all i feel that Rogla will still get chances at Tour. Where there is will there is a way. On top of that i agree that current top GT GC riders. That none of them will win next 5 editions of Tour.

 

[Rackham]

Hope is on the horizon

Vingegaards wife talking about Jonas doing the Giro-Tour double (actually talks about the triple)

I wonder whether Vingegaard will do the Vuelta this year (after winning the Tour), instead of last year where he twiddled his thumbs for the rest of the season.

The Angliru would definitely suit his qualities. It would also be a chance for Jumbo to test how well Rog & Vinge can work together again.

 

[Trofonios]

Vingo has never been better or looked better than Rog except during last year's Dauphine at one single stage. And Rog was recovering from an injury sustained at the Basque Country.
I think prime Rog puts 30sec into Vingo yesterday and probably catches Jai and wins the stage.
So, hopefully, either JV come to their senses and send Rog as a leader at the Tour or he leaves the team and wins for another one.
Considering Rog has been their most prolific rider for the past 5-6 years I would be more interested in the second option because it would also be fun to watch JV in disarray when they cannot win a single monument or a GT.

For real, you actually believe that?

 

[Rackham]

If someone is a glass half empty sort of person, the talk of Vingegaard doing the Giro-Tour double (or triple with the Vuelta? like how would that even be possible...) could be bad news, actually.

We're in an era where 'sky is the limit' & if Vingegaard & his clan (his wife is his manager after all) have eyes on racing the other GT's + the Tour as well, then that doesn't leave much for Rog.

 

[CyclistAbi]

... and doesn't hit a haybale, Colbrelli or Fred Wright...

Here i feel that additional explanation must be made. Was it Rogla or was it haybale, Colbrelli or Wright. We could debate it further but in the end i feel that we all agree on one thing. Just don't do it again and we are good.

 

[Divergence]

For real, you actually believe that?

Sure I do. Rogla can go just as fast uphill, maybe a bit faster than Jonas, say 5 sec by attacking the last 300m and then he descends like a demon and is faster on the flat.

 

[Trofonios]

Sure I do. Rogla can go just as fast uphill, maybe a bit faster than Jonas, say 5 sec by attacking the last 300m and then he descends like a demon and is faster on the flat.

Faster than JV went yesterday? And where is the proof that he can do that? JV took 37s on Pog and over a minute over the rest of the GC contenders in just a couple of kilometers. How often do we see Rogla do something like that? And how often have we seen Rogla riding away from Pog and gaining more than 30s on him? Vuelta when Pog was just 20 doesn't really count. No doubt is Rogla an expectional rider, but that he is a stronger climber, or was, than Vingegaard is right now I find doubtful.

 

[Rackham]

At least Roglič knows how to put his own dropped chain back on.

 

[Divergence]

Faster than JV went yesterday? And where is the proof that he can do that? JV took 37s on Pog and over a minute over the rest of the GC contenders in just a couple of kilometers. How often do we see Rogla do something like that? And how often have we seen Rogla riding away from Pog and gaining more than 30s on him? Vuelta when Pog was just 20 doesn't really count. No doubt is Rogla an expectional rider, but that he is a stronger climber, or was, than Vingegaard is right now I find doubtful.

We have seen him go faster than Jonas many times and we have never seen Jonas go faster than Rog.

 

[Netserk]

I wonder whether Vingegaard will do the Vuelta this year (after winning the Tour), instead of last year where he twiddled his thumbs for the rest of the season.

The Angliru would definitely suit his qualities. It would also be a chance for Jumbo to test how well Rog & Vinge can work together again.

As much as I'd like it, I don't think he'll do the Vuelta this year. I think a different prep is required for that, at least mentally.

 

[Trofonios]

We have seen him go faster than Jonas many times and we have never seen Jonas go faster than Rog.

JV could have left Rog in Dauphine last year and you know it. What you disregard is Vingegaards progression the last two years. We saw an exceptional Pogacar in the tour last year, but he never managed to drop Vingegaard, instead Vingegaard dropped Pog twice. The other contenders weren't even close, not even GT who Rogla barely managed to beat in the Giro this year.

And this year JV have shown an incredible level since Basque contry. He just rides away when he feels like it, never seen Rogla been that dominant.

 

[theyoungest]

We have seen him go faster than Jonas many times and we have never seen Jonas go faster than Rog.

In the Dauphiné last year Vingegaard had to hold back so he wouldn't drop Roglic... I'll ignore Planche des Belles Filles because Roglic wasn't at his best there.

I think being a Roglic fan should not make you blind to the man's limitations. There's no way Roglic does what Vingo did on Granon last year or Marie-Blanque yesterday. It's not his style and it's not where his strength lies.