Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Rackham]

I'd say the greatest 'danger' right now is how the collective cycling bubble will react on the internet if & when Rog takes the jersey from Kuss.

There's a lot of people out there who really don't like Roglič & something like the Imola 2020 coverage will happen again, but worse. Put bluntly, he'll get labelled as the bad guy for not helping Kuss win his first GT.

 

[Netserk]

What do we expect for Tourmalet? The first question is of course how Jumbo will ride before the climb. With the current situation, I expect them to ride like the Morzine stage. Van Baarle, Gesink, Tratnik and Valter should be able to keep a decent pace throughout the stage, and then Kelderman will pull on Tourmalet.

I think Rogla will be fine with waiting for a stomp. It's only if he senses some weakness from Evenepoel that he will attack sooner. The killer blow is for the day after.

 

[topcat]

What do we expect for Tourmalet? The first question is of course how Jumbo will ride before the climb. With the current situation, I expect them to ride like the Morzine stage. Van Baarle, Gesink, Tratnik and Valter should be able to keep a decent pace throughout the stage, and then Kelderman will pull on Tourmalet.

I think Rogla will be fine with waiting for a stomp. It's only if he senses some weakness from Evenepoel that he will attack sooner. The killer blow is for the day after.

I think Remco will ride them off the wheel on the Tourmalet.

 

[Berniece]

What do we expect for Tourmalet? The first question is of course how Jumbo will ride before the climb. With the current situation, I expect them to ride like the Morzine stage. Van Baarle, Gesink, Tratnik and Valter should be able to keep a decent pace throughout the stage, and then Kelderman will pull on Tourmalet.

I expect a Laruns stage. JV will send some riders in the break, and let Vingegaard attack on Aubisque already or on Spandelles. Kuss and Roglic then have the possibility to just follow UAE/SQS. While those riders that attacked early can help Vingegaard take a gap of 30-60s. On the Tourmalet we'll just have to wait what happens then, but JV will be in a great position.

If they do it like you said, they aren't using their numbers to tactically destroy UAE/SQS before Tourmalet starts.

 

[Red Rick]

What do we expect for Tourmalet? The first question is of course how Jumbo will ride before the climb. With the current situation, I expect them to ride like the Morzine stage. Van Baarle, Gesink, Tratnik and Valter should be able to keep a decent pace throughout the stage, and then Kelderman will pull on Tourmalet.

I think Rogla will be fine with waiting for a stomp. It's only if he senses some weakness from Evenepoel that he will attack sooner. The killer blow is for the day after.

To me all depends on if Vingegaard is good enough to send it early on Tourmalet. Roglic waits for the final km. Kuss probably HODLs.

Evenepoel will probably only attack Kuss really late if at all. Ayuso will also wait pretty long IMO

I dont believe in any breakaway domestiques and Spandelles attacks tbh.

 

[Netserk]

To me all depends on if Vingegaard is good enough to send it early on Tourmalet. Roglic waits for the final km. Kuss probably HODLs.

Evenepoel will probably only attack Kuss really late if at all. Ayuso will also wait pretty long IMO

I dont believe in any breakaway domestiques and Spandelles attacks tbh.

Kuss will attack. You'll love to see it.

 

[Berniece]

I dont believe in any breakaway domestiques and Spandelles attacks tbh.

Why not?

 

[IndianCyclist]

2- 15 s Stomp including bonuses will be enough to win against Remco provided Kuss has been dropped already. So he is not likely to attack other than in the final k. If Kuss is not dropped by Remco, then he wins the Vuelta and Roglic will only sprint to take away any bonuses. Of Course if Remco drops/shows any weakness, they will go full gas.

 

[svit]

I think Roglic will surprise everyone with a vicious attack on Col del Spandelles...

 

[Nick2413]

I think Rogla will be fine with waiting for a stomp. It's only if he senses some weakness from Evenepoel that he will attack sooner. The killer blow is for the day after.

How do you anticipate that stage plays out? There’s only 10k of climbing in the last 50k so whoever lands the killer blow will maybe not want to drop everyone until the final shorter climb.

 

[Rackham]

I still think this Vuelta will go like the recent TdF, i.e. gaps will be huge & riders will explode all over the place.

Because Niermann is in the team car & because Vingegaard is slightly behind in GC, I expect Jumbo will push a monster tempo tomorrow. It's just their style.

I think Roglic will surprise everyone with a vicious attack on Col del Spandelles...

It's a nasty climb for sure.

 

[Lequack]

Because Niermann is in the team car & because Vingegaard is slightly behind in GC, I expect Jumbo will push a monster tempo tomorrow. It's just their style.

They don't have Kuss now to set up the really strong pace in the end, as they need to protect him.

 

[Rackham]

They don't have Kuss now to set up the really strong pace in the end, as they need to protect him.

I think anything is possible with this team. After the TdF I'm pretty much done trying to analyse or make sense out of their tactics.

There are 3 points I'm willing to speculate on:

- Jumbo can be either ultra aggressive, or ultra defensive, depending on their mood & objectives. It makes them very, very difficult to read & anticipate.

- Vingegaard looks like he's running on empty (from my perspective anyway), so I'm leaning towards a roll the dice moment for him, i.e. an all out long ranger in the coming days.

- Kuss won't necessarily conform to expectations either, i.e. just because he's got the lead, Jumbo says he's going for GC & his teammates say he can win, doesn't mean he won't be sacrificed in another bluff.

 

[Divergence]

I'd say the greatest 'danger' right now is how the collective cycling bubble will react on the internet if & when Rog takes the jersey from Kuss.

There's a lot of people out there who really don't like Roglič & something like the Imola 2020 coverage will happen again, but worse. Put bluntly, he'll get labelled as the bad guy for not helping Kuss win his first GT.

Yes, it is very likely that there will be comments like "if only Rog did not attack after Kuss was dropped he would have stayed in red".
I believe Rog would have no problem with Kuss winning the whole thing but unless Kuss is extremely strong I believe there will be a moment when Rod will sense he needs to attack or he will be told to attack and, him being the best, he will make up the time gap and take red. Then the comments will probably start.

 

[Luthor]

Vinge needs to get some time on Tourmalet, it's the high mountains he waited for. If he can't break everyone, he isn't winning. Spandelles attack is really risky unless they have Valter/Kelderman in the break.

For Remco to be broken Jumbo has to gamble and attack early. If they're waiting for Tourmalet then I don't believe Vinge can take enough time on the others. Ayuso might also want to go early. The wind is gonna be very important on Spandellles/Tourmalet. If there is headwind nobody is gonna risk given the next stage.

 

[Volderke]

Results from the Sporza poll (Belgian, but also (large proportion?) Dutch voting):

Who is going to win the Vuelta? (35592 votes)

**** (41%) - Roglic
*** (33% ) - Evenepoel
** (22%) - Kuss
- (3%) - Vingegaard
- (1%) - Ayuso
- (1%) - Soler

Vlasov, Almeida, Mas, Martinez all close to, or equalling 0% of votes.
No votes for Vino, but that wasn't an option so it's not a good poll

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Results from the Sporza poll (Belgian, but also (large proportion?) Dutch voting):

Who is going to win the Vuelta? (35592 votes)

**** (41%) - Roglic
*** (33% ) - Evenepoel
** (22%) - Kuss
- (3%) - Vingegaard
- (1%) - Ayuso
- (1%) - Soler

Vlasov, Almeida, Mas, Martinez all close to, or equalling 0% of votes.
No votes for Vino, but that wasn't an option so it's not a good poll

Are you sure that isn‘t the Sepp Kuss Fanclub Voting?

 

[Volderke]

Are you sure that isn‘t the Sepp Kuss Fanclub Voting?

I think lots of cycling fans have been impressed by Kuss in the TT and already know his climbing pedigree.
It's all extrapolation, but in theory there is no one who can beat Kuss in climbing. He already showed he is often on the same level as the guys he is working for, and even after finishing his work, he often stays within touching distance of the group he was working in. Combine this with the strong JV team, and Kuss is a big contender. Even if he loses time in one of the coming days, he can be in the running: e.g. if he loses red, he has all the more reasons to attack and he will be marked less while doing so, compared to Roglic and Vingegaard (although I feel no one is underestimating him anymore).

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Are you sure that isn‘t the Sepp Kuss Fanclub Voting?

It's definitely not the Soler fan cult.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

It's definitely not the Soler fan cult.

They‘re the reason the numbers add up to 101%.

 

[Berniece]

I think lots of cycling fans have been impressed by Kuss in the TT and already know his climbing pedigree.

I think a lot of people just aren't knowledgeable enough. What % of voters doesn't properly follow the Vuelta you think? Or cycling in general.

 

[theyoungest]

Results from the Sporza poll (Belgian, but also (large proportion?) Dutch voting):

Who is going to win the Vuelta? (35592 votes)

**** (41%) - Roglic
*** (33% ) - Evenepoel
** (22%) - Kuss
- (3%) - Vingegaard
- (1%) - Ayuso
- (1%) - Soler

Vlasov, Almeida, Mas, Martinez all close to, or equalling 0% of votes.
No votes for Vino, but that wasn't an option so it's not a good poll

There will be some Dutch votes, but not a large proportion. Hardcore Dutch cycling fans follow Sporza, but don't confuse the Dutch people on cycling forums with the general public.

And the numbers seem about right to me. I'd give Ayuso a way bigger chance though.

 

[Nick2413]

I think a lot of people just aren't knowledgeable enough. What % of voters doesn't properly follow the Vuelta you think? Or cycling in general.

Probably somewhat but Vingegaard would get way more votes if they were largely just aware of TdF headlines

 

[cen]

They don't have Kuss now to set up the really strong pace in the end, as they need to protect him.

Kuss should pace..

 

[Sciatic]

How do you anticipate that stage plays out? There’s only 10k of climbing in the last 50k so whoever lands the killer blow will maybe not want to drop everyone until the final shorter climb.

I assume you mean Sat’s stage re: “only 10 Km of climbing” since Tourmalet is close to 20km?