Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[CyclistAbi]

I do believe the numbers are good and will only get better. No way has Rogla aimed at 110% for his spring campaign, such effort and training block is reserved for the Tour. As for his "only" chance(s). Lets not forget Rogličes chances last year were exactly 0%. As he wasn't selected into the Tour team. So chances should be slightly higher this year and beyond.

 

[glassmoon]

I do believe the numbers are good and will only get better. No way has Rogla aimed at 110% for his spring campaign, such effort and training block is reserved for the Tour. As for his "only" chance(s). Lets not forget Rogličes chances last year were exactly 0%. As he wasn't selected into the Tour team. So chances should be slightly higher this year and beyond.

I'd give him 2%

 

[CyclistAbi]

I'd give him 2%

Deal. Rogla would have settled with 1%, he doesn't need more.

 

[velaso montador]

It appears he's in good shape:

'His training is producing really good numbers' – Roglič recovered from Itzulia injuries, builds toward Tour de France

Head sports director tells Cyclingnews the 2023 Giro d'Italia winner is confirmed for training camps, Criterium du Dauphine

www.cyclingnews.com

I think ppl are underestimating Roglic this year and he might very well be stronger than he has in years. The TT in Itzulia was like prime Roglic or atleast incredible good. Think he lost closer to 20sec than 15 on that missturn too. having to break down and start from scratch etc

 

[Rob5091]

As it is today, Roglic seems to be the top contender against the G.O.A.T. at the Tour.
edit add- I wonder if Bora are hopping it'll be 30C every day for the last two weeks of the Tour.

 

[velaso montador]

Also think ppl are overestimating Pogs chances in the Tour a little. For me the Giro-Tour double is more than X's and O's, its more than that and harder and just like inflation more sticky than the data shows, same here. Seen it time and time again before.

 

[Rackham]

I think ppl are underestimating Roglic this year and he might very well be stronger than he has in years. The TT in Itzulia was like prime Roglic or atleast incredible good. Think he lost closer to 20sec than 15 on that missturn too. having to break down and start from scratch etc

I'm completely biased anyway but I totally believe Rog will compete for victory in July.

I'm not a futurologist so I can't say he'll win but IMO he'll absolutely be in the fight for yellow. I like the look of that final stage ITT as well.

 

[Berniece]

I'm completely biased anyway but I totally believe Rog will compete for victory in July.

I agree, I think Vingegaard, Pogacar, Roglic and Evenepoel will all compete for victory. Mostly due to Vingegaard not going to be 100% ready, Pogacar feeling the Giro, and thus reducing the gap with Roglic/Evenepoel

 

[tobydawq]

Deal. Rogla would have settled with 1%, he doesn't need more.

Yes he does.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Well if Jonas will really be pushing for the Tour, then in my opinion that slightly increases the chance we will get to see a double this year.

 

[AmRacer]

Well if Jonas will really be pushing for the Tour, then in my opinion that slightly increases the chance we will get to see a double this year.

Jonas Tour Vuelta

 

[dazaau]

Yes he does.

What do you mean, 1% chance just means he has to race it for 50 years and he is 50/50 to bag the missing yellow

I can't wait for the tour, shaping up to be one of the greats and this is as good a chance as Roglic could ever have hoped for.

 

[Red Rick]

What do you mean, 1% chance just means he has to race it for 50 years and he is 50/50 to bag the missing yellow

I don't think you know how probabilities work

 

[QueenStagiaire]

A

What do you mean, 1% chance just means he has to race it for 50 years and he is 50/50 to bag the missing yellow

I can't wait for the tour, shaping up to be one of the greats and this is as good a chance as Roglic could ever have hoped for.

Actually he would need to race for ~69 years to have that 50/50 chance.

 

[dazaau]

I don't think you know how probabilities work

I think you care too much, but not enough to know the answer or educate anyone it seems? You see, like you I do not come here to do maths, but rather write general thoughts about cycling without thinking too much.

It was a general point with some humour that 1% is a bit tough and that Roglic is too old for that. Though CyclistsAbi is making the point Roglic is the master of his own destiny.

But sure, it's a 39.5% chance over 50 years, you got me. And if he raced it 100 times he would still not be certain to win.

 

[Rob5091]

"write general thoughts about cycling without thinking too much." Hey! That's my shtick!

 

[bNator]

I think you care too much, but not enough to know the answer or educate anyone it seems? You see, like you I do not come here to do maths, but rather write general thoughts about cycling without thinking too much.

It was a general point with some humour that 1% is a bit tough and that Roglic is too old for that. Though CyclistsAbi is making the point Roglic is the master of his own destiny.

But sure, it's a 39.5% chance over 50 years, you got me. And if he raced it 100 times he would be not be certain to win.

I think it's you who cares too much and @Red Rick was just being humorous and not really assaulting your cognitive abilities...

 

[Blanco]

Or maybe 2020 was.

Twice in a lifetime chance then..

 

[Blanco]

I agree, I think Vingegaard, Pogacar, Roglic and Evenepoel will all compete for victory. Mostly due to Vingegaard not going to be 100% ready, Pogacar feeling the Giro, and thus reducing the gap with Roglic/Evenepoel

Vingegaard won't make it, even if he starts the race.
Remco will fade, he won't make it to the podium.
Pogacar will feel the Giro, although he will fight for the win.
Roglic will be a contender for the win.
Bernal will emerge from the "dead" and fight for podium, at least...

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Remco will fade, he won't make it to the podium.

I'm afraid something like this will happen as well. In the third week he will lose up to 10 minutes, which will diminish his 30 minute lead over runner-up Pogacar to merely 20 minutes. After finishing the TT in Nice, instantly immense festivities ensue and Evenepoel gets carried by the crowds into the night, and he won't make it to the podium ceremony.

 

[Berniece]

Vingegaard won't make it, even if he starts the race.
Remco will fade, he won't make it to the podium.
Pogacar will feel the Giro, although he will fight for the win.
Roglic will be a contender for the win.
Bernal will emerge from the "dead" and fight for podium, at least...

Roglic fans can hope, it's the only way he can win the TDF

 

[Elos Anjos]

Roglic is currently lurking and waiting that the Gods grant him another chance. With Pogi a bit battered and Vingo still in doubts, he has a chance. Actually, he already had one. IMO he can be as good as those two.

I'm personally waiting for Remco to battle it out but I feel he will be competitive for some stages until he fades out with a bang in some stage.

 

[Froome]

Roglic is currently lurking and waiting that the Gods grant him another chance. With Pogi a bit battered and Vingo still in doubts, he has a chance. Actually, he already had one. IMO he can be as good as those two.

I'm personally waiting for Remco to battle it out but I feel he will be competitive for some stages until he fades out with a bang in some stage.

No, he can't be as good as those two. Wishfull thinking.

Currently, Roglic level on a GT is more close to the level of guys like G.Thomas than close to the level of Pogacar and then Vingegaard.

 

[Extinction]

No, he can't be as good as those two. Wishfull thinking.

Currently, Roglic level on a GT is more close to the level of guys like G.Thomas than close to the level of Pogacar and then Vingegaard.

I think he's above Thomas, really, but it depends on Vingegaard's state of affairs and Pogi's recovery from the Giro as to whether or not Roglic can be higher than they. Of the three, it seems Primoz has the most ideal trajectory in terms of preparation and pre-race build-up, which shall be more understood after the Dauphine.

 

[AmRacer]

I think he's above Thomas, really, but it depends on Vingegaard's state of affairs and Pogi's recovery from the Giro as to whether or not Roglic can be higher than they. Of the three, it seems Promoz has the most ideal trajectory in terms of preparation and pre-race build-up, which shall be more understood after the Dauphine.

Froome means the distance between Rog and Thomas is less than between Rog and Pog.