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Rogla is too good of a wheel sucker to be that far behind Pogi and Jonas as some tend to believe.
I also think Roglic is above Thomas but not that much, and certainly more close to him, than close to Vingegaard and Pogacar in terms of GT level.
I was talking in normal conditions, if Roglic at 100% against Vingegaard and Pogacar at 100%, but there's a possibility that Vingegaard and Pogacar will not go to the Tour at 100%, so the chances of Roglic increase a bit.
Rogla will do just fine. He is GOAT stage racer and on top of that the most experienced GTer from them all. Motivation is high and the team again fully behind him. A crash or some *** like that could prevent him winning, still i find that less likely. So optimal preparation for Rogla and the team and nobody can stop them. There is no such force in nature and beyond.
Elos Anjos
BANNED
LOL. Zero arguments. The usual personal interpretations of what's on other user's minds. Same b*****t. Every single time.
The only basis for a realistic comparison in a GT between Roglic and Geraint Thomas is Giro 2023. Roglic won by 14 seconds while injured and was belittled in his glorious victory by the usual gang around here because in the end he barely defeated an old man.
So since Geraint Thomas was 3rd in Tour 2022 by 10m or something to 1st (Vingo) and 2nd (Pogi), this is the "rationale" for stating that Roglic is closer to Geraint Thomas than Roglic is to Pog and Vingo.
Let's forget Vuelta 2023 where final times between contenders were much more closer and Geraint Thomas was 31st. And Roglic was the only one with a personality to state that he was there to win (or loose while trying). Vingo only managed to gain time on Roglic after a surprise attack for his "friend" (bollocks).
The lesson is that each race has its own story. You have to be smart to read what's going on in each one. Otherwise you keep seeing times differences as objective quantifications of performance that should prevail into other races. Which of course is an obvious mistake.
The only basis for a realistic comparison in a GT between Roglic and Geraint Thomas is Giro 2023. Roglic won by 14 seconds while injured and was belittled in his glorious victory by the usual gang around here because in the end he barely defeated an old man.
So since Geraint Thomas was 3rd in Tour 2022 by 10m or something to 1st (Vingo) and 2nd (Pogi), this is the "rationale" for stating that Roglic is closer to Geraint Thomas than Roglic is to Pog and Vingo.
Let's forget Vuelta 2023 where final times between contenders were much more closer and Geraint Thomas was 31st. And Roglic was the only one with a personality to state that he was there to win (or loose while trying). Vingo only managed to gain time on Roglic after a surprise attack for his "friend" (bollocks).
The lesson is that each race has its own story. You have to be smart to read what's going on in each one. Otherwise you keep seeing times differences as objective quantifications of performance that should prevail into other races. Which of course is an obvious mistake.
I'm mostly curious why we're talking about Thomas here.
Like if there is one dude you expect to not do a good Giro/Tour double it's Thomas.
Like if there is one dude you expect to not do a good Giro/Tour double it's Thomas.
Roglic will not win the tour until he learns how to state and prove the Hahn-Banach theorem.
If Thomas beats Pogacar this Giro, then obviously Pogacar is behind Thomas in GT riding. Unless it’s due to an injury.
It's not that black and white. It would also mean Pogacar was closer to Adam Yates than Vingegaard as a GC rider after the TdF last year
I don't know. What that would mean is there are currently top five-ish in top tier. And that perception is rather subjective. Considering all the discussions we had on where that is supposedly simply not possible.
Apparently, he seems to be a yardstick for being a bad GT rider for whatever reason.
Either that or he will blow everyone away for the n-th time by being a good GT rider. What a *** surprise…
I'm just saying that if Thomas is able to beat Pogacar one-on-one, I don't see Pogacar like I see him now.
You can't get away with not explaining the thought process that led you to this post in full detail.
Is this some very obscure joke about contract extensions?
And Thomas would likely get a different shade of aura too?
It's a trick question, as nobody can really explain that. So the main idea was for Rogla to take a bait and to fail at the Tour. Or if not that then to substantially bump the post number in this thread. And for all the participants to miss the Tour. Ultimate fail.
It is, but mostly I'm hoping most ppl will just say what the ***. I'm a maths professor by day and I come on the forum to get away from it all.
The tour:
Remco has a chance
Rog has a chance
Vingo has a chance
Pog has a chance
It's exciting, let's not make it boring.
Roglic is just better than Pogacar and Vingegaard in 2 areas that are not that important to win a Grand Tour.
1-sprint
2-short TT
Grand Tours are decided in the mountains stages, especially those long mountain stages with a lot of vertical meters and in the long Time Trials.
1-Pogacar and Vingegaard are a better bike handlers than Roglic. They crash less, they can position better in the peloton to get out of trouble, they also can descend better.
2-They are also better than Roglic in Time trials, especially in the last week of a Grand Tour.
3-Mountain stages and the ability to push high W/kg ( yes, this is very important, for some reason the riders and staff of the teams talk a lot about that).
Vingegaard and Pogacar can push more W/kg than Roglic, if we look at the performances in the last years. They can push more W/Kg in 15/20/30/40 min climbing efforts.
4-Roglic also has a big weakness especially compared with Vingegaard, the long mountain stages with a lot of vertical meters. Roglic suffers a lot on that type of stages.
5-Pogacar and Vingegaard recover better from the efforts on the previous days.
The gap between Pogacar and Vingegaard to the other riders in the mountain stages, tells everything. I just can't see Roglic being phisically to go with them. He never proved capable of doing that, day and day out, and for some reason Visma choosed Vingegaard to be the guy in the Tour.
I just can't see how Roglic can beat Vingegaard or Pogacar in a mano a mano, on normal conditions, but like i said, there's a chance of Vingegaard and Roglic not being there at 100%, so the chances of Roglic increase a bit.
While these may all be true, you have no samples to prove them (except issue number 1 minus descending). There simply isn’t enough samples of those two fighting against Roglic. And those that are, are inconclusive: Roglic for instance beat Vingegaard on a rather long TT in Vuelta, he appeared to be stronger in Angliru. There are long TTs where Roglic performed exceptionally: Giro 2019, OG 2021 and Vuelta 2020… long mountain stages in 2020 indicate they might not be such a problem after all…
Basically, we have seen Vinge and Pog get a chance to perform in the recent years while Rogla was ridden by crashes, injuries and bad luck (hale bale was simply out of his control). That’s why you deduce all these supposed weaknesses from Pog/Vinge’s strengths. But in reality, these are all just assumptions which were never confirmed.
The fact he had a lot of crashes and sometimes "bad luck" has to do with what i said on point 1.
I was talking about being at 100%. Obviously Vingegaard were not at 100% during the vuelta and was sick in the first week. Roglic did a good preparation to the Vuelta. I think it's better talk about the perfomances of Pogacar and Vingegaard at 100% compared with the perfomances of Roglic at 100%.
I think we can compare Angliru where Roglic was at his best, compared with the perfomances of Pogacar and Vingegaard at his best, being at 100%.
We can look at the gaps. Roglic on Angliru was 17 s faster than Landa. When Vingegaard and Pogacar go full gas like in the Tour France, for example, Tourmalet, the gap for the others riders is much bigger. They are phisically stronger.
I'm not going to talk about monte bondone because maybe Roglic was not at 100%, but we can compare Angliru where Roglic was at 100% with the perfomances of Vingegaard and Pogacar at 100%.
Long mountain stages with a lot of vertical meters, i honestly tought was something we all were going to agree abou being a weakness to Roglic compared with the other two. Roglic is clearly stronger in short stages, like he is strong is short efforts.
So long story short: Vingegaard and Roglic never competed while both at 100%, and Pog and Roglic competed once. That’s why I’m saying your claims are assumptions. Which is ok, by the way. It’s just that I don’t agree with most of them. I agree he is worse bike handler (but at least as good descender) and that he has problem with very long stages (which there are none at this year’s Tour). He might be a better TTer on average, has a better sprint, better 5-8 minutes average output and maybe (not sure about that) similar long climb power output.
Considering those assumptions: if he stays on his bike and reaches his best-possible FTP, he might have a chance against 100% Pog/Vinge.
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