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You may find best training numbers ever in any random post from Contador between 2013 and 2017.
Or maybe 2020 was.I think the main factor skipping races are not current injuries but possibility that Jonas will not race Tour or will not be 100% and Pogi will have Giro (with or without crashes) in legs. Roglič and team want to be 120% prepared and not risking new injuries. This year is once in a life time (career) chance to win Tour.
I'd give him 2%I do believe the numbers are good and will only get better. No way has Rogla aimed at 110% for his spring campaign, such effort and training block is reserved for the Tour. As for his "only" chance(s). Lets not forget Rogličes chances last year were exactly 0%. As he wasn't selected into the Tour team. So chances should be slightly higher this year and beyond.
I'd give him 2%
I think ppl are underestimating Roglic this year and he might very well be stronger than he has in years. The TT in Itzulia was like prime Roglic or atleast incredible good. Think he lost closer to 20sec than 15 on that missturn too. having to break down and start from scratch etcIt appears he's in good shape:
'His training is producing really good numbers' – Roglič recovered from Itzulia injuries, builds toward Tour de France
Head sports director tells Cyclingnews the 2023 Giro d'Italia winner is confirmed for training camps, Criterium du Dauphinewww.cyclingnews.com
I think ppl are underestimating Roglic this year and he might very well be stronger than he has in years. The TT in Itzulia was like prime Roglic or atleast incredible good. Think he lost closer to 20sec than 15 on that missturn too. having to break down and start from scratch etc
I agree, I think Vingegaard, Pogacar, Roglic and Evenepoel will all compete for victory. Mostly due to Vingegaard not going to be 100% ready, Pogacar feeling the Giro, and thus reducing the gap with Roglic/EvenepoelI'm completely biased anyway but I totally believe Rog will compete for victory in July.
Deal. Rogla would have settled with 1%, he doesn't need more.
Jonas Tour VueltaWell if Jonas will really be pushing for the Tour, then in my opinion that slightly increases the chance we will get to see a double this year.
What do you mean, 1% chance just means he has to race it for 50 years and he is 50/50 to bag the missing yellowYes he does.
I don't think you know how probabilities workWhat do you mean, 1% chance just means he has to race it for 50 years and he is 50/50 to bag the missing yellow
Actually he would need to race for ~69 years to have that 50/50 chance.What do you mean, 1% chance just means he has to race it for 50 years and he is 50/50 to bag the missing yellow
I can't wait for the tour, shaping up to be one of the greats and this is as good a chance as Roglic could ever have hoped for.
I don't think you know how probabilities work
I think it's you who cares too much and @Red Rick was just being humorous and not really assaulting your cognitive abilities...I think you care too much, but not enough to know the answer or educate anyone it seems? You see, like you I do not come here to do maths, but rather write general thoughts about cycling without thinking too much.
It was a general point with some humour that 1% is a bit tough and that Roglic is too old for that. Though CyclistsAbi is making the point Roglic is the master of his own destiny.
But sure, it's a 39.5% chance over 50 years, you got me. And if he raced it 100 times he would be not be certain to win.