Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Oldermanish]

The only way I see Rog getting adventurous is if he needs to gain serious time. The way I see it, every day Rog holds Pog's wheel it'll be a victory in & of itself. Starting on Saturday. The moments when Pog launches it throughout the Tour (which he will... a lot) will be high stress situations, i.e. with a loaded gun aimed at Rog in the form of "if you can't hold this wheel, you lose the Tour".

So I don't think it's a stretch to say Rog's path to victory features two main components in a very basic strategy:

- hold Pog's wheel in the mountains
- beat Pog in the ITT's (namely the last one).

Failure to achieve either will pretty much guarantee a failure in GC, i.e. with every other path to victory becoming & more & more fantastical i.e. like relying on unpredictable race moments or tactical coups to get a lead against a stronger rider. Aka the sort of stuff which is very difficult to plan for.

We agree on those counts. Unfortunately he'll likely need more time than what he'll get in the last TT. This Tour shouldn't be decided by the Lemond benchmark.

 

[CyclistAbi]

So lets see on who first posts an image of Rogla in his brand new jersey in this thread.

 

[Peter von]

The only way I see Rog getting adventurous is if he needs to gain serious time. The way I see it, every day Rog holds Pog's wheel it'll be a victory in & of itself. Starting on Saturday. The moments when Pog launches it throughout the Tour (which he will... a lot) will be high stress situations, i.e. with a loaded gun aimed at Rog in the form of "if you can't hold this wheel, you lose the Tour".

So I don't think it's a stretch to say Rog's path to victory features two main components in a very basic strategy:

- hold Pog's wheel in the mountains
- beat Pog in the ITT's (namely the last one).

Failure to achieve either will pretty much guarantee a failure in GC, i.e. with every other path to victory becoming & more & more fantastical i.e. like relying on unpredictable race moments or tactical coups to get a lead against a stronger rider. Aka the sort of stuff which is very difficult to plan for.

indeed. I'd argue that if he is going to get adventurous he would even need different components. If Rogla isn't strong enough* to achieve your two goals, he probably isn't strong enough to get adventurous either, especially with the final stage being a hard, long-ish ITT.

So maybe if Pogi starts fading in final week or something like that, but even then Rogla will just get his team to put the hammer down(or even better let Lisa Bike do it) and hope Pogi cracks.

*or if Pogi is so strong that the two goals cannot be achieved.

 

[AmRacer]

Lisa Bike

 

[Rackham]

indeed. I'd argue that if he is going to get adventurous he would even need different components. If Rogla isn't strong enough* to achieve your two goals, he probably isn't strong enough to get adventurous either, especially with the final stage being a hard, long-ish ITT.

So maybe if Pogi starts fading in final week or something like that, but even then Rogla will just get his team to put the hammer down(or even better let Lisa Bike op it) and hope Pogi cracks.

*or is Pogi is so strong that the two goals cannot be achieved.

I think there's also a point in the Tour where the vibes need to be right.

This goes beyond tactics or merely legs, i.e. Rog & Bora need to be in the zone & not on the backfoot constantly. I think these races tend to unravel real fast when there's a series of mishaps, i.e. an accumulative amount of sh*t basically which eventually results in something horrible.

The heybale for example wasn't an isolated incident: Van Aert had crashed (minor, but still a crash), Vingegaard had his famous mechanical & Rog was left with only Laporte in the main group of favorites. But even prior to that stage, Rog had already been dropped by his own team when Van Aert won the Calais stage. So it already felt like the Tour 2022 was going wrong.

Same with 2021: Opi Omi, then 2 days later on stage 3 Gesink DNF's & Tony Martin is dropped after being taken out by a bizarre G Thomas crash. The final 20km of the stage is fast & dangerous whilst Rog is missing his bodyguards. Kaboom, Colbrelli happens.

So Red Bull Bora needs to start well on Saturday. I hope the heat helps in that regard (it's going to be 35 Celsius in Florence).

 

[Monte Serra]

Are they going bring Roglič to the Red Bull Bora Hansgrohe team presentation? I hope not.

 

[Lequack]

Boss

 

[Berniece]

Boss

He looks very sharp

 

[Froome]

Boss

Nice new kit.

 

[Rackham]

Eyes on the prize:

 

[Netserk]

Boss

🤤🤤🤤

 

[johnymax]

I've seen enough. Roglstomps incoming...

 

[Rackham]

He's aiming for victory:

Primoz Roglic kijkt uit naar gevecht tussen de 'Grote Vier': "Dauphiné was een bevestiging"

Primož Roglič keert na een jaar afwezigheid terug in de Ronde van Frankrijk. De Sloveen won onlangs het Critérium du Dauphiné, maar het had in de slotrit wel bijzonder lastig. Toch hield hij een positief gevoel over aan de Franse rittenkoers. Dat vertelde Roglič in gesprek met Het Nieuwsblad. De...

www.wielerflits.nl

My own pre-Tour hype-o-meter says I think he's got some decent form going into this Tour. I think he should enjoy the hot weather at the weekend as well (for as long as it lasts).

 

[johnymax]

He's aiming for victory:

Primoz Roglic kijkt uit naar gevecht tussen de 'Grote Vier': "Dauphiné was een bevestiging"

Primož Roglič keert na een jaar afwezigheid terug in de Ronde van Frankrijk. De Sloveen won onlangs het Critérium du Dauphiné, maar het had in de slotrit wel bijzonder lastig. Toch hield hij een positief gevoel over aan de Franse rittenkoers. Dat vertelde Roglič in gesprek met Het Nieuwsblad. De...

www.wielerflits.nl

My own pre-Tour hype-o-meter says I think he's got some decent form going into this Tour. I think he should enjoy the hot weather at the weekend as well (for as long as it lasts).

Of course he is aiming for victory, he is a champion. It's what he does. Unlike some favourite belgian son who is aiming for a top 5. A generational talent...

 

[Extinction]

Of course he is aiming for victory, he is a champion. It's what he does. Unlike some favourite belgian son who is aiming for a top 5. A generational talent...

And what were Primoz's prospects in his first Tour? Then he came 38th in 2017, no, followed by 4th in 2018, then 2nd in 2020. So I can't see how Remco can go into his first Tour, and in this generation, stating more at the outset.

 

[ManicJack]

And what were Primoz's prospects in his first Tour? Then he came 38th in 2017, no, followed by 4th in 2018, then 2nd in 2020. So I can't see how Remco can go into his first Tour, and in this generation, stating more at the outset.

Had Roglic already won a GT when he did his first TdF?

 

[AmRacer]

And what were Primoz's prospects in his first Tour? Then he came 38th in 2017, no, followed by 4th in 2018, then 2nd in 2020. So I can't see how Remco can go into his first Tour, and in this generation, stating more at the outset.

What had Rogla won before his first Tour?
He wasn't a favourite.

 

[Berniece]

Had Roglic already won a GT when he did his first TdF?

I thought that was a fluke?

 

[AmRacer]

I thought that was a fluke?

Yes, but Roglic couldn't even win a GT by fluke.

 

[johnymax]

And what were Primoz's prospects in his first Tour? Then he came 38th in 2017, no, followed by 4th in 2018, then 2nd in 2020. So I can't see how Remco can go into his first Tour, and in this generation, stating more at the outset.

Rogla going into his first Tour had only one Volta ao Algarve victory, Remco has three already. That's a big difference...

 

[Berniece]

Yes, but Roglic couldn't even win a GT by fluke.

I wonder if Remco is mentioned more in this thread then Roglic

 

[AmRacer]

I wonder if Remco is mentioned more in this thread then Roglic

Good question, you should do a count.

 

[Extinction]

Rogla going into his first Tour had only one Volta ao Algarve victory, Remco has three already. That's a big difference...

Huh?

 

[Red Rick]

Every Ozempic chick is jealous of Roglic' cheeks

 

[CyclistAbi]