Right now it looks like he’s gonna be fighting for 3rd place. I don’t know if Remco is gonna lose significant time in the mountain stages, or if Pogi and Vingo crack later on, but judging by what I see, he should be ok with where he stands.
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He rode a measured last part of the Galibier and had a solid TT today. We’ll see if he can make some moves in the mountain stages, or will just ride defensively (more likely scenario) as Pog and Vingo will likely go at each other. If that happens and Remco can’t stay with them, I think Rog should focus on that and hope he has a nice gap to Remco before the final tt, even if the tt’s are infuriatingly short this year.
It’s his first attempt at a one GT super peak in a long time. Hopefully he gets this third week
Peak right
Peak right
He definitely looks lighter but his TT was a good ride. Vingegaard's even better with the interrupted prep. Will Pogacar come back to the field in the third week after riding the Giro, is the big question. The thing in his favor is that he wasn't pushed in the Giro but he still attacked quite a lot. Second week should set the race up nicely for the final stages. Question marks about all of the top four really, in different ways.
Hindley's preparation was about him riding as a helper and not a GC leader. He will be better in week three.
whats the most likely out of the two from you ?
IMHO, Rogla being the GOAT stage racer, he knows exactly what he is doing. If he got it right, and it seems he is doing a good job so far, then this long range defence strategy, applied from week one, will turn into long range attack strategy, utilized on week three and all by itself. That is Rogla won't change all that much, he will remain a constant, it's the peloton on the other hand, that will change. We'll see.
He's not the top contender for tomorrow's gravel extravaganza. I see Pogi and Remco managing that surface well, then Rogla and not at all sure how Jonas will do. It'll be stressful for all.
I think he's actually in good form as early as stage 4 but wasn't paying attention on that stage. The Galibier was also expected to have him stay within his prescribed limits and his recovery on the descent suggested he had a bit more to give. He's gotta quit second guessing his form tomorrow and in the hills to improve his podium possibilities.
Rogla is good on gravel and hopefully the team will be good at protecting and especially battling for positions on stage 9. Lets see if Rogla can finish in top 3 GC before the first rest day.
If he can that would be a good outcome; particularly if he takes time out of one of the other contenders as well. Positioning is key on this kind of gravel as it's smaller and more granular with loose edges. You get hooked into the shoulder and you end up on someone's champagne trellis. Have a bike problem and you'll wait for a long time unless a teammate is right there. I would anticipate fans being right in the riders' faces, too. Drunk fans.
? is that redundant?
Lets not forget, ages ago, when Rogla had some issues on a cobbles stage, the crash didn't happen on cobbles section. On top of that somebody threw something under his front wheel. AFAIR some sort of agriculture related object. But that was then and tomorrow i am sure that Rogla will do just fine.
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How was Roglic not paying attention when he dropped to the back of the group and almost lost the wheel repeatedly? He was even struggling to stay with the group after Pogacar attacked but recovered on the descent.
That had nothing to do with his bike handling but ended up being the signal moment that Visma screwed him and left him for dead.
Specifically: the peloton is snaking through a village long before a cobble section and a rider ahead of him clipped a hay bale used to screen street furniture and turned it into his path. At his point he was sitting good in pack position and ahead of the Dane by quite a bit. He crashed on his shoulder, dislocating it and then collected himself and reset the shoulder himself. Seriously; that is a dedicated hard man move.
Meanwhile the entire team and cars roll by their stricken leader and they put the full support in front of Jonas; assigning a single teammate to help Primoz back to the field on a cobbled stage. They chased for quite awhile including cobbled sections and reduced the gap but never closed a painful and exhausting day for him.
He was then assigned domestique duty which he performed with the damaged shoulder high into the Alps until he couldn't keep pace any more.
Tomorrow's stage challenges his pack positioning as well as familiarity with gravel sections. He hasn't done Strade Bianci to my knowledge and Tadej has had a field day there against several WC cyclocrossers.
What will be important tomorrow is gravel sections are not wide enough for 4 GC teams. So Bora needs to keep Rogla more to the front as otherwise if anything happens you quickly lose time, due to being too far behind. If at some point situation to require it then Rogla to take matters into his own legs and to show his gravel skills, riding at the front. Like he already did in the past, successfully.
Yes, he needs to be close to the front entering those sectors. Unfortunately, every DS will be yelling at their team to get to the front before they enter the gravel, and there’s not enough room for everyone. The approach to the gravel could cause more havoc than the gravel itself!
Stage 4 in Italy he was pinned to the barriers on the right side when Tadej attacked at the top on the left. He was not where he should have been.
The Galibier he was out of the saddle 3km from the summit which suggested he was hitting his max desired output. He drifted to the back prior to Pogacar's attack and rode his tempo to the top. He then lit it up and caught everyone on the descent; Evenpoel had to catch up snuggling up to Landa's wheel. Different situation and outcome as one was stupid inattention, the second was being strategically mindful of not blowing up above 6,000 ft.
His TT showed he knows where his sweet spots are for efforts but he needs to risk a bit more. Aside from tomorrow which could be a sh*t show for every contender; the steeper climbs in stages ahead will probably define his effort whether successful or painful.
We’re talking about stage 4 of the 2024 Tour de France right? Roglic was getting gapped because he was on his limit, not because he was inattentive.
Roglic looked like he was about to drop from Almeida’s pacing losing the wheels and dropped to the back of the group. Roglic only recovered from the pace letting up while Ayuso was messing around. Roglic stayed at the back the rest of the way. When Pogacar attacked Roglic was at the back, Landa was struggling to hang on and Roglic was struggling to hold Landa’s wheel. Roglic had space to respond on the left or right if he had the gas. We are then shown a very brief glimpse of Roglic struggling and a bike length or more gap to Almeida’s wheel who is in a group of 4 (C Rod 1st, Ayuso 2nd, Landa 3rd, and Almeida 4th). Who are then shown the group of 4 coming up to the top with Roglic still having a gap to them and just caught Landa’s wheel at the top. Roglic then stays second wheel behind C Rod on the descent until C Rod rides off and Roglic starts pulling. During that Roglic had a recovery from the effort and could assist with pulls when Roglic, Ayuso, C Rod, Evenepoel, and Vingegaard all come together.
Evenepoel caught up to Vingegaard, C Rod, Ayuso, and Roglic by himself. Landa was even further behind with Almeida.
Leading up to Pogacar attack 15:08
Roglic with a gap to the group of 4 15:4
Top of the climb 17:46
Roglic looked better in the TT and can definitely get to a better level, but he didn’t lose time on stage 2 and 4 due to his positioning or inattentiveness.
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Roglič actually did Strade Bianche twice, in 2017 and 2018.
Stage 18 of the 2020 TdF, Rog actually dropped everyone with a small gap on the plateau des Glières gravel section. He also did a decent race in Denain on cobbles a couple of years ago.
His skill on rough terrain isn't an issue. The behavior of the bunch he's riding in is.
The more hectic & aggressive the fight for position gets, the more likely something horrible will happen.
His skill on rough terrain isn't an issue. The behavior of the bunch he's riding in is.
The more hectic & aggressive the fight for position gets, the more likely something horrible will happen.
And lets not forget Rogla sold his dirt motorbike to buy a road bike.
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