Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Peyroteo94]

Climbing records don't say anything really.

Depend mate. Of course most climbs have a weak record and easy to break for this new generation of riders (Galibier from south, Perthus, Grappa). But beating records from Pantani? Hum... this give us some information. Beating Pantani by almost 4 minutes where Froome was 2 minutes off? This is remarkable. If they bring Alpe d'Huez or Mont Ventoux back next year and Pogi/Vingo break Pantani's record, we know they made a legendary ride. I could say the same about Hautacam. These climbing records shouldn't be underestimated. So what Pogacar did yesterday, was really the best performance ever in a mountain stage.

 

[Berniece]

Depend mate. Of course most climbs have a weak record and easy to break for this new generation of riders (Galibier from south, Perthus, Grappa). But beating records from Pantani? Hum... this give us some information. Beating Pantani by almost 4 minutes where Froome was 2 minutes off? This is remarkable. If they bring Alpe d'Huez or Mont Ventoux back next year and Pogi/Vingo break Pantani's record, we know they made a legendary ride. I could say the same about Hautacam. These climbing records shouldn't be underestimated. So what Pogacar did yesterday, was really the best performance ever in a mountain stage.

Like I already said in the Remco topic, first of Pogacar got a big leadout that Pantani never got. On top of that he's riding in a completely different era. People like to say we can't take Merckx into account because that was a different era, but then compare Pantani of 26 years ago and use that as a correct benchmark.

Not saying what we saw yesterday wasn't immensely impressive, it was, but climb records don't say much, and definitely not with such a gap over time in it.

 

[CyclistAbi]

In the end on who really cares, i don't, this race ended for Rogla on stage 12 so much more important races now to come.

As for some takeaways, in a way i look positively on what i seen, that is after stage 12 Rogla was still in the fight and on an upwards trajectory. So good results on GT races seem to still be possible, riding for the new team. That is actually great, especial when comparing on how far ahead UAE and Visma are. Jorgenson and Yates, for example, on how much they progressed, joining this two teams, compared to riding for their previous teams, not to talk about team leaders. So in no way am i taking it for granted, that Rogla stayed competitive, joining a new team. In regards to GT racing, the next goal hence being to finish and to finish high.

In regards to Olympics, the verbal agreement seems to be, for Rogla to decide in next day or two, then selector to visit finale of the Tour in Nice, to talk to other cyclists and for final decision to be made. At least that is what Murn said in an interview.

So i guess there is still a chance of Rogla doing Olympics. Fingers crossed.

 

[stonerider]

Sorry Primoz fans but he is way past his prime and will never win the Tour unless Tadaj, Jonas, and Remco are not in the race. His best chance of winning the TdF was when he was in his prime and beaten by a still developing Tadaj. Now Tadaj is even stronger than when he won his first TdF and Primoz is weaker, and will continue to get weaker year after year unless he finds he is missing something in his training and nutrition. But I think Visma would have identified any training or nutritional shortfalls when he was still riding for them.

 

[Rackham]

Sorry Primoz fans but he is way past his prime and will never win the Tour unless Tadaj, Jonas, and Remco are not in the race. His best chance of winning the TdF was when he was in his prime and beaten by a still developing Tadaj. Now Tadaj is even stronger than when he won his first TdF and Primoz is weaker, and will continue to get weaker year after year unless he finds he is missing something in his training and nutrition. But I think Visma would have identified any training or nutritional shortfalls when he was still riding for them.

Rog is probably not getting weaker. It's not an accurate assessment.

What's happening is he's not getting as strong as the others. I mean take Landa for example: he's stronger now than ever before. There's no 'decline' there.

It's just the progression curve of the main two is such that someone gaining a few % year-on-year will get obliterated by someone gaining 10%.

Current Rog probably demolishes 2020 Rog. But that's still nowhere near enough to win the Tour.

 

[Wyndbrook]

Climbing records don't say anything really.

Totally agree, why we cannot even compare performances in the same time trial where a rider starts thirty minutes after another with speed wind changes, wind direction changes and even pressure changes.

 

[Rackham]

That's a fun "what if" game to play, i.e. imagine Pogi Poggers in the 2002 Tour de France? He'd put 6 minutes into Lance on the Plateau de Beille.

Then he'd get to have dinner with the president of the United States & date Sheryl Crow.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Sorry Primoz fans but he is way past his prime and will never win the Tour unless Tadaj, Jonas, and Remco are not in the race. His best chance of winning the TdF was when he was in his prime and beaten by a still developing Tadaj. Now Tadaj is even stronger than when he won his first TdF and Primoz is weaker, and will continue to get weaker year after year unless he finds he is missing something in his training and nutrition. But I think Visma would have identified any training or nutritional shortfalls when he was still riding for them.

We forgive you.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Imagine 2024 TdF Landa in 2015 Giro

Astana management would still convince him to babysit Aru

 

[perico]

Depend mate. Of course most climbs have a weak record and easy to break for this new generation of riders (Galibier from south, Perthus, Grappa). But beating records from Pantani? Hum... this give us some information. Beating Pantani by almost 4 minutes where Froome was 2 minutes off? This is remarkable. If they bring Alpe d'Huez or Mont Ventoux back next year and Pogi/Vingo break Pantani's record, we know they made a legendary ride. I could say the same about Hautacam. These climbing records shouldn't be underestimated. So what Pogacar did yesterday, was really the best performance ever in a mountain stage.

For context, Pantani put a full 1:30 seconds into noted climbing legend Bobby Julich, whose time was still in the Top 10 before yesterday. He was the best of the rest of the GC riders that day. I don’t think Pantani’s record was all that impressive on that particular climb, just that circumstances and race strategy have probably prevented it from being broken until yesterday. I don’t remember every finish I have seen at PdB, but the only other one I even remember being all that important was in 2007 when Contador vs The Chicken was a bunch of stop start accelerations. It was amazing to watch, but slowed them down.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Analysing crashes, 2021, 2022 and 2024 edition. So basically it's flat stages, on where disaster hit. It all started with getting crashed out while riding at the front, then three crashes happening somewhere in the belly of the peloton, some of them in the line of a chance meteor hitting. Going forward hence some risk will still be needed, at the end of flat stages, team keeping Rogla at the front. As for the rest of flat stages i feel the best strategy is to trade time for health and to ride further back in the peloton, to purposely avoid any risk. We'll see.

P.S. In 2023 Rogla didn't even had to crash out, he was not even selected, at 2024 edition he would likely be used to launch Jonas on stage 15, riding for Visma, all to no avail. So still some positives to take from it and to rather build on that, going forward. Crash and all taken into consideration, it's still better, then the alternative.

 

[skippo12]

Question for him is if he wants to continue to chase the Tour pipe dream or if tries to maximize his palmares.

 

[Rackham]

Question for him is if he wants to continue to chase the Tour pipe dream or if tries to maximize his palmares.

Maximize his palmarès with what?

Pog hinted he wanted to go back to the Giro. Vingegaard will try for the Vuelta at some point again (this year or next). Hell, Pog will probably try for the Vuelta at some point as well. Mrs. Vingegaard hinted last year Vingegaard could do all 3 GT's in one season (I read that in an article somewhere).

Everywhere you look, everywhere you turn, whenever you think you're alone... you're not. Pog & Vinge will be there to spoil the party.

The 'only' window he maybe has in this year's Vuelta but I won't hold my breath (just like the pros don't hold their breath when they're inhaling carbon monoxide at altitude training...).

 

[Valv.Piti]

Really hope he will make it to the Vuelta. He deserves a proper shot at a GT this year. I was being very sceptic and called him lucky to not sit further minutes behind Pog before the Pyrenees (and I stand by that), but his performance on stage 11 was an uplifting one in an otherwise mediocre year. Very high level and despite it not being being a "real" mountain stage, it was still hella hard. Now I know he won Dauphine, but I was not at all convinced by that performance, so the level is definitely still there somewhere if everything goes right, its just that we don't see that level that often anymore and the more worrying part is obviously that there's no way in hell you win against Pog and Vingegaard operating at these levels.

 

[skippo12]

Maximize his palmarès with what?

Pog hinted he wanted to go back to the Giro. Vingegaard will try for the Vuelta at some point again (this year or next). Hell, Pog will probably try for the Vuelta at some point as well. Mrs. Vingegaard hinted last year Vingegaard could do all 3 GT's in one season (I read that in an article somewhere).

Everywhere you look, everywhere you turn, whenever you think you're alone... you're not. Pog & Vinge will be there to spoil the party.

The 'only' window he maybe has in this year's Vuelta but I won't hold my breath (just like the pros don't hold their breath when they're inhaling carbon monoxide at altitude training...).

Spring peak (he cannot retire without winning Fleche Wallone) + Vuelta (if you have to face Pog and/or Vinge do it when both of them aren't pushing july w/kg numbers).

 

[Peyroteo94]

Roglic should be fine in the Vuelta. Route is perfect for him and the field will be weak. No Vingegaard, Pogacar, Remco so he is the overwhelming favourite. UAE will be strong however.

 

[Gargamel35]

I think Vinge will go to Vuelta if he looses TdF. And even Pog could go to Vuelta if he wins TdF to complete a 3 GT win streak.

 

[acm]

I think Vinge will go to Vuelta if he looses TdF. And even Pog could go to Vuelta if he wins TdF to complete a 3 GT win streak.

Neither of them will go. Jonas and Trine are expecting 2nd child and we know how much family means to him, Pogi said a million times he won't go to Vuelta this year. WC is his bigger goal.

 

[acm]

Rog is probably not getting weaker. It's not an accurate assessment.

What's happening is he's not getting as strong as the others. I mean take Landa for example: he's stronger now than ever before. There's no 'decline' there.

It's just the progression curve of the main two is such that someone gaining a few % year-on-year will get obliterated by someone gaining 10%.

Current Rog probably demolishes 2020 Rog. But that's still nowhere near enough to win the Tour.

And why is he not getting stronger? I think that Bora is at least a level or two below Visma and UAE in terms of performance, nutrition... They don't even use ketones. They have good riders, but it seems like they are missing something to be even better. I hope they'll find that with RB.

 

[CyclistAbi]

When assessing i feel that Rogla doing the Tour 2025 is not even down to a choice, team would make him ride it regardless. Unless i guess Remco really joins the team and leadership issues emerge, then i guess anything is possible. Said that i feel that Rogla is still motivated, to invest the needed respect into this race. Likely he would even be prepared to sign for a new team in 2026, if pushed back in his current team, for the Tour 2025 edition.

Some things should be evaluated realistically, though. That is UAE and Visma are too far ahead, as teams. So even if Rogličes current team progresses, we are still around 5 years from the level of top 2 teams. I mean they were still strong at sector 1, gravel stage, the rest of them, all 13 of them, it was in between UAE and Visma. Moreover on when UAE and Visma started power playing, going up the hill, Roglič was isolated before any resemblance of mano a mano action started to happen. On top of that the team had one big goal in regards to this Tour edition and that is for Rogla not to crash, flat stages, and especially not to crash on his shoulder. It was not possible to prevent that.

So, considering the team will likely improve, but still far from UAE and Visma level, considering Rogla will likely invest needed respect and will prepare good for the Tour 2025 edition. Some other things need to change, to prevent such outcome. Promises, on how Rogla will be kept protected in the bunch, flat stages, he won't. Rather ride at the back of the bunch and reduce the level of respect invested in such stages. Rather trade time for health. On ITTs and on when launching of extraterrestrial(s) is imminent, then for Rogla to get a notification and saying here, hold my beer. Hopefully a team member at least to still be there, to hold his beer. For Rogla to finish it at the end of the stage.

Stomps and things like that, on a GT like Tour, that is out of the question now, much more important to keep consistency through the whole race.

As for national campaigns, seem like some people would be happy if fatigued Pogi would get a couple of helpers, for Olympics/Worlds RR. So obviously this must not happen and Rogla to be there, doing Rogla things.

 

[CyclistAbi]

But what about if Remco joins the team which seems plausible he will? Doubt he comes there without beeing able to choose his own program.

Lets first see on how it goes, it's not like Rogla has much control over that. If Rogla would be pushed back, Tour 2025, then in my opinion he could still sign for a different team going into 2026 season, that is if the Tour ambition would still be going strong.

What Rogla can do, though, is he can keep being competitive. That part is on him and that is on what Rogla has the most influence on and control over. Until Rogla can stay competitive i feel that he will get chances, one way or another.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Will be interesting to see if he does the Olympics. He has no chance of a result and Pog is presumably gonna be the leader there

In my opinion it's a must, to be there and to do Rogla things. As for your sentiment, supposedly yes, that is on how the narrative goes. Time to put a stomp on that.

 

[RedheadDane]

Will be interesting to see if he does the Olympics. He has no chance of a result and Pog is presumably gonna be the leader there

According to the Olympics thread, the deadline for team announcements for the Olympics was 8/7. So... probably not.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Im doubting Pogacar in the OL but Roglic maybe too duo to the crash and the effects from that. The OL is not far away. But would be nice to see Roglic do well there, I think he will win the Vuelta and that would be awesome.

Pogi si doing Olympic RR. Only question remaining is will he have 2 or 3 helpers.

Yes very true but if Remco is coming which I believe he will ofcourse be influenced by that.

It would be interesting for sure, on how it would unfold i don't know, could be positive or it could end up being negative. Lets wait till August, on where such things will get officially announced.

According to the Olympics thread, the deadline for team announcements for the Olympics was 8/7. So... probably not.

Provisional. The final decision will be made after the Tour.

 

[Rackham]

And why is he not getting stronger? I think that Bora is at least a level or two below Visma and UAE in terms of performance, nutrition... They don't even use ketones. They have good riders, but it seems like they are missing something to be even better. I hope they'll find that with RB.

I've got a feeling of... fatalism right now.

Looking forwards to the future, what concerns me is the barriers Pog & Vinge have punched through. It's an entirely different level now. God knows how fast the peloton is going to be racing next spring, i.e. yesterday's "wow look how crazy fact Pog's climb is!" becomes next year's normal.

In that world, guys like Rog find it harder & harder to exist. Too many rockets, basically. So IMO based on what we know, the upcoming Vuelta really does start to look like the last great opportunity to add a 5th GT to his name.

But even then, there's likely to be a swarm of UAE riders hellbent on getting their own personal glory (Yates, Ayuso, Almeida etc.).

We'll see. Recency bias is still strong (as is the impression of invincibility Pog & Vinge have demonstrated in this Tour in which they've jumped a level from last year).