Teams & Riders Everybody needs a little bit of Roglstomp in their lives

[Rackham]

It's not so mysterious to me.

- He's generally pretty good at cornering and descending, especially on his TT bike. Less so in the rain
- He's bad in anticipating and responding to movements of other riders, especially in a big, frantic peloton
- He's a former ski jumper and an adrenaline junkie. This means he's less risk averse than he probably should be based on his bike handling skills.

In my mind the bunch is split into 3 danger zones and Rog tends to constantly exist in the worst. The back of the bunch is safest, except for inattention (like Gaudu's crash last week) and the resulting time loss. The very front of the bunch is also generally better but that's always populated by big rouleurs/teammates and the GC guys with lots of energy and yes, good handling.

Then you get the danger zone. That area immediately behind the front of the bunch stretching across let's say between position 10/15 back to position 40. That's where Rog exists, along with the likes of Bernal, Tao GH, Tiberi, Ayuso, Evenepoel, Mas and most others. And to no one's surprise those are the GC riders often listed when the ominous caída/chute/crash whatever shows up on the TV graphic.

And something else to note is the bigger teams with lots of power now drill it hard whenever they're approaching a danger zone, always accelerating into pinch points, sharp turns and narrow sections.

 

[Berniece]

Roglic twice during races. Ayuso twice during races. Landa and Hindley broke their backs. Tiberi went down hard. Ciccone is out. Del Toro himself crashed yesterday.

I remember seeing some stats that counted crashes in the last x years and while Roglic was above average, he wasn't close to being on top and he wasn't even that much higher than supposed great bike handlers.

The thing that annoys me is this fundamental attribution error thing we have going on where when other riders crash it's just a part of cycling, and every time Roglic' crashes there's people in this thread going "skill issue", even despite if you look at the actual crash happening, he's in a front 20 position in the peloton and the rider before him goes down.

People think it’s a skill issue because people feel he crashes more often, and misses a lot of goals due to it. I haven’t followed the Giro as much as I wanted due to professional obligations, so I don’t really know how his falls compares to others.

 

[Faserr]

I also think the most dangerous part in the bunch is in position 10 - 30 and thats were Roglic rides in 80 % of the finals. UAE except Del Toro are mostly riding in position 50-100 with a bit of a gap in this giro. They risk to loose time, but without crashing.
Pog is also often rinding in dangerous position, but he is avoiding some of the crashes with skill and perhaps a bit of luck.

 

[Cycling111]

I also think the most dangerous part in the bunch is in position 10 - 30 and thats were Roglic rides in 80 % of the finals. UAE except Del Toro are mostly riding in position 50-100 with a bit of a gap in this giro. They risk to loose time, but without crashing.
Pog is also often rinding in dangerous position, but he is avoiding some of the crashes with skill and perhaps a bit of luck.

Pogacar's only significant DNF was in Liège. When someone has so few, it's not just luck.

Pogacar is one of the best at positioning. That's why he's so good in the Classics, and his experience in the classics makes him betterr rider. Racing classics is a learning process as a cyclist

Pogacar has a terrible team in the Tour at positioning all years. If he didn't have that ability last year, he could´ve lost the Tour on the day of the schelons when his seven teammates were left behind with 100km to go.

Ayuso for example, if he went to De Ronde, he´d lose a lot of energy and options recovering positions. Last year, he was terrible at Amstel and Zurich for that reason.
That's not bad luck, it's ability. More ability, lless risks.

Pogacar may have a DNF one day due to bad luck or a mistake, but at the end of a sport career what counts is the trend, and when the trend is so favorable it´s not simple luck.

 

[Netserk]

Roglic's bike handling is a mystery to me. He can descend pretty well but he can't stay in a bunch and swerve from dangerous spots which lead to potential crashes. He is always trying to conserve energy and forgets to be attentive to other riders.
Anyone claiming this is just bad luck, has not been following this sport in the last 5 years.

He is good with handling high speed, his descents in Barcelona this year was a good example of that, but he's no magician on a bike, not even when alone. His greatest weakness is peloton skills, he gets pushed around very easily. You can also question his risk assessments, but it is a double-edged sword to be relatively risk tolerant as he also gains from it.

 

[Froome]

He survived to these crashes. The Giro is in the pocket.

 

[Rackham]

The historical perspective will become more nuanced as time goes by after he eventually retires.

It means when average speeds are increasing and the behavior of the peloton is becoming more & more focused on speed > caution, regular huge crashes will remain commonplace - without or without Rog in the peloton.

GC riders will be constantly chewed up and spat out onto the tarmac again and again, especially with gravel stages and the sort of Montmartre experiment becoming more and more popular. I expect lots and lots of tumbles, spills, slips and bumps for just about everyone over the next 10 years, basically.

 

[Red Rick]

The historical perspective will become more nuanced as time goes by after he eventually retires.

It means when average speeds are increasing and the behavior of the peloton is becoming more & more focused on speed > caution, regular huge crashes will remain commonplace - without or without Rog in the peloton.

GC riders will be constantly chewed up and spat out onto the tarmac again and again, especially with gravel stages and the sort of Montmartre experiment becoming more and more popular. I expect lots and lots of tumbles, spills, slips and bumps for just about everyone over the next 10 years, basically.

Historical perspectives don't get more nuanced lol.

 

[noob]

Since my 2 favourite riders both are really bad at positioning but Rogla crashes while Almeida hardly ever even goes down. I think Almeida is even further back than Roglic?

I'm just so fascinated by how immensely they differ, because they're equally defensive riders.

 

[Rackham]

Historical perspectives don't get more nuanced lol.

I'll make sure they do. Whenever there's an accident I'll jump into every race day thread here and everywhere for the rest of my life shouting "you see, it's not just Rogla who crashes!".

Meanwhile I'll keep my fingers crossed when he's climbing Everest eh.

 

[noob]

I'll make sure they do. Whenever there's an accident I'll jump into every race day thread here and everywhere for the rest of my life shouting "you see, it's not just Rogla who crashes!".

Meanwhile I'll keep my fingers crossed when he's climbing Everest eh.

Has he done a lot of climbing before?

 

[Peyroteo94]

I also think the most dangerous part in the bunch is in position 10 - 30 and thats were Roglic rides in 80 % of the finals. UAE except Del Toro are mostly riding in position 50-100 with a bit of a gap in this giro. They risk to loose time, but without crashing.
Pog is also often rinding in dangerous position, but he is avoiding some of the crashes with skill and perhaps a bit of luck.

Pogacar is always well positioned in dangerous roads or critical points of the race. Just see PR.

 

[Rackham]

Has he done a lot of climbing before?

It's his stated post-cycling ambition. If there's one place on earth Rog should leave the "no risk no glory" motto at home, it's Everest.

 

[noob]

It's his stated post-cycling ambition. If there's one place on earth Rog should leave the "no risk no glory" motto at home, it's Everest.

I fear for him for real whether he does Everest or not. He will either do that or become addicted to something else. It's in his dna ;/ Why couldn't he just become a golfer or something instead 😢

 

[Rackham]

I fear for him for real whether he does Everest or not. He will either do that or become addicted to something else. It's in his dna ;/ Why couldn't he just become a golfer or something instead 😢

Have you even seen all those rich retired sport celebs doing the whole "I enjoy playing golf" cliché? They look bored out of their minds.

Funny fact Roger Federer admitted as much just recently.

 

[noob]

Have you even seen all those rich retired sport celebs doing the whole "I enjoy playing golf" cliché? They look bored out of their minds.

Funny fact Roger Federer admitted as much just recently.

Not surprised. Golf doesn't look like the biggest rush of adrenaline. Biologically/evolutionarily those people are meant for hunting and fighting so I get why they're so addicted to adrenaline.

I for one would have enjoyed his comments from a moto bike, but it's completely obvious that will never happen 🤣😢

 

[Red Rick]

Not surprised. Golf doesn't look like the biggest rush of adrenaline. Biologically/evolutionarily those people are meant for hunting and fighting so I get why they're so addicted to adrenaline.

I for one would have enjoyed his comments from a moto bike, but it's completely obvious that will never happen 🤣😢

Golf is so boring Murray rather voluntarily got yelled at by Djokovic rather than play more golf for 6 months.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Felix Gall likes playing golf.

 

[Red Rick]

Get the starting $ bag and go home man

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Time to focus on the Tour maybe?

 

[fenns]

whatever the issue is he's not going to improve enough to win this race - might as well withdraw and save himself for the Tour

 

[Rackham]

Time to focus on the Tour maybe?

Time for Rog to have a drink first, hopefully a strong one. He's earned it.

 

[Peyroteo94]

So my bet that he wouldn't top5 the Tour doesn't look that bad eh? Of course I think Roglic without crashes is top5 material but he is always crashing so it isn't that stupid to think he wouldn't top5.
This Giro is over. These long mountain stages are not made for him, specially when he is hurt.

 

[ppanther92]

He survived to these crashes. The Giro is in the pocket.

He only needs like 10-15 riders to bonk.

 

[Faserr]

I think the team won't go to the Tour with a 100% focus on Roglic.
They need some good racing. They were not there in the classics and now in the Giro.
I think they will take a sprinter and 2-3 stage hunters + some riders dedicated only to Roglic.