He wasn't even in the Eurosport promo last year for TdF yet he won it. He surely could not climb like Froome in 2012 and Contador in 2011 and we will never know if he could in 2014. Maybe we will find out in July. As for Quintana they never climbed together in a GT.SeriousSam said:I know that 2014 Nibali's estimated w/kg curve as a function of length of effort is similar to 2013 Froome's, but I still find it hard to believe Nibali was that good. If he really was that good, why is it he is only 4th most likely to win the Tour, significantly less likely than Froome, Quintana and even Double-attempting Contador according to the bookies? In my opinion, it's because he just cannot climb like they can.Brullnux said:Nibali 2014 Tour was on par with Froome in 2013. Contador vs Nibali we have only really seen once, and Contador beat him by 6 minutes. However, this was 4 years ago, and Nibali has improved massively, whereas Contador not so much. Peak Contador is slightly better than Nibali and Froome, but we will probably not see peak Contador at the Tour.lenric said:Possibly.SafeBet said:They never really believed he could beat Contador, I fear. And at the moment Aru looks like someone who's missed some days of training at the wrong time. Maybe Astana knows he's going to fade, and that would explain why they are trying to have as many options still in GC contention. I wouldn't be surprised if Landa or Cataldo end up being the best placed Astana riders at the end of the Giro. Could be pessimism on my part, but he really looked sluggish yesterday.
But Nibali doesn't stand a chance against Froome (peak form) or this year Giro's Contador (peak Contador screws Nibali easily).