The idea that Floyd had a "carefully orchestrated plan" doesn't make much sense.
Floyd played the denial game as long as he could. He only stopped when he was broken financially and emotionally. Floyd was not a calculating man at that stage.
Floyd unveiled the "come clean" game at about the same time the qui tam was launched. That's obviously no coincidence. The qui tam lawsuit would have taken some time to prepare. The qui tam was Floyd's last chance to tap into Lance's money and rescue himself from the financial crapper.
Before proceeding with the qui tam, Floyd had to decide how he was going to present his past. He had three choices: Come totally clean (admit to the testosterone); continue denying; or equivocate.
Continuing the denial would kill the qui tam. That was no option for Floyd.
Admitting testosterone clearly exposes Floyd to the risk of criminal prosecution for fraud. A fraud conviction would hurt Floyd because the qui tam jurors would be informed that their star witness is a convicted fraudster. That matters to jurors when they have to evaluate the truthfulness of a witness. And when Floyd is making his decision, he doesn't yet know that George and Tyler and others will back up his story. Also, a felony conviction would really stink for the rest of Floyd's life. Admitting testosterone also exposes Floyd to a risk of a civil lawsuit. Floyd's whole point in the qui tam is getting Lance's money. It defeats the purpose if Floyd get's Lance's money only to have to pay a big chunk (or all) of the money back to the people that he defrauded.
Floyd's equivocal denial (in other words, his lie)--"I was doping but I didn't do the dope that they said that I did" can be seen as Floyd's attempt to have his cake (the qui tam) and eat it too (not get convicted of fraud). I'll believe that equivocal denial (lie) when I meet Tyler's Twin.
I think that we can fairly assume that the Feds crawled Floyd every bit as much as the feds crawled Lance. Floyd, unlike Lance, had to be cooperative--otherwise he'd doom his qui tam chances. Also unlike Lance, Floyd didn't have any resources to protect himself from the feds. If, in the course of their developing investigation, the feds found out that Floyd lied about the testosterone (from witnesses, bank receipts, Floyd himself, etc.), the feds would not be happy. That would very much explain an eagerness to prosecute Floyd.
The feds won't charge Floyd unless they have a very strong case that they lay out in their indictment. If Floyd is charged, he'll plead guilty. There won't be any trial. Floyd will plead, act contrite, and will do no time. Fighting, and lying some more, is not in Floyd's best interest.
Merckx Index makes good points about what is a "material" lie when it comes to fraud. If the feds charge Floyd, I suspect that the relationship between the lie and the donations will be clear enough to satisfy an average juror. If they can't provide that clarity, they won't charge.
I don't think we'll have to wait too long, because the feds must be sensitive to the statute of limitations.