Froome is Sky's best chance to win Le Tour

[luckyboy]

Wiggins should be the leader for the Tour because he has proven he can lead at the Tour. If Froome is ahead of him after the TT and first MTF then he should be their leader obviously.

 

[La Pandera]

We would not be arguing about who should be leader at the TDF if Froome was allowed to ride for the GC at the Vuelta instead of having to ride for Wiggins. That performance would have guaranteed him leadership.

Apparently you don't realize that up to the start of the Vuelta, Froome was an unproven commodity not worthy of a grand tour leadership. Wiggins was and should have been the protected rider. The Vuelta played out the way it did and Cobo won. Maybe Froome could have won it had he been given the freedom to pursue his own interests earlier but, as I stated, he was unproven and to hand over the team to him when you had Wiggins as the pre-determined leader would not have been the wisest of decisions.

 

[La Pandera]

I have a feeling Wiggins didnt particularly like Froome taking over the leadership towards the end of the vuelta. I remember even at one stage Froome doing all the work for Wiggins when in fact Froome had the leaders jersey on.

Wiggins is doing a lot of interviews lately and coming out with a lot of bullish talk about how he is capable of winning the tour. This is a ploy to get his teammates and management on side as he is worried about the shared leadership with Cav and also the possibility that Froome could take over the leadership in the latter stages of the tour.

He got too big for his boots at Garmin when he disrespectfully referred to them as Wigan. To me he looks like a rider who likes to be the leader at all times and especially doesnt like it to be challenged by his fellow teammates.

It's possible we could see a replay of the Vuelta if Froome is allowed to arrive at the Tour with it as his season focus. I think Froome is a better climber than Wiggins and potentially his equal in TT's. The only question is his ability to endure the Tour. I'm sure Wiggins is nervously looking over his shoulder with Froome having displayed his potential for Tour success.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

...

@captain_cavman
Angliru is no normal, pacing climb. Thier is no pacing team mates, on slopes with zoncolan and angliru your legs do the talking. I watched the stage, and in no way did wiggo alter froome's chances on this climb.

No slipstreaming advantage, but a significant advantage in just having to focus on the wheel in front and not have to pick your path through the crowds, worry about moves, gaps etc. What if Froome had gone with Cobo? Maybe he wouldn't have been able to go with him all the way to the top but he would have surely finished 2nd with less time gap and the time bonus.

As for losing it there, I mean in that situation, at that time regardless of the two weeks before froome essentially lost it here. He survives, he wins. At that time, there was no considering what happend yesterday or the day before; it was best man takes all.

Froome started 48 seconds ahead of cobo and was 20 seconds behind on gc afterwards. So yes, I do believe he lost the race on this slope.

In regards to mountains, cobo was undoubtedly the better ridder. In the TT froome and co. cleaned up.

But again that ignores that he wasn't trying to preserve his advantage, he was trying to preserve Wiggins's. The only time Froome and Cobo genuinely went head to head it was a virtual tie. I don't believe that Cobo outrode Froome in the Vuelta, it was just the way the cards fell, just as if a contender crashed etc.

The point being, I don't think you can classify Froome as 'sub-Cobo'. At the same time this was the guy who didn't have a contract for 2012 during the race. So that puts him somewhere between future GT winner and not worth a place on a Pro tour team.

 

[only1symo]

At this point I believe Wiggins is the rightful leader of Sky, however in a couple of years the focus will shift to Froome. Lets not forget the injury Wiggins had recovered from coming into the Vuelta and the poor choice of gearing which handed the win to Cobo.

Either way, what a p!sser for Brailsford eh, World Champion + Green Jersey contender and two potential GC winners? I am sure a lot of other teams would prefer his options at the moment.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

No slipstreaming advantage, but a significant advantage in just having to focus on the wheel in front and not have to pick your path through the crowds, worry about moves, gaps etc. What if Froome had gone with Cobo? Maybe he wouldn't have been able to go with him all the way to the top but he would have surely finished 2nd with less time gap and the time bonus.

Based on what? That is nothing more then speculation.

Even when wiggo was gone I didn't see him dropping poels?

I disagree froome could have done better. Froome only had to take the lead of the group and pace it up if he could, he did this neither (effectively that is) with wiggo nor when wiggo was gone.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

Based on what? That is nothing more then speculation.

Even when wiggo was gone I didn't see him dropping poels?

I disagree froome could have done better. Froome only had to take the lead of the group and pace it up if he could, he did this neither (effectively that is) with wiggo nor when wiggo was gone.

Of course it's speculation, that's what we're all doing. You're the one who is trying to assess Froome's Tour chances based on the result of one completely atypical stage of the Vuelta. That's about as speculative as it gets I'd have thought.

It's clear he was pacing Wiggins, so how can you deny he would have been further up the road if he hadn't had to? Menchov presumably would have stuck with Wiggins and Poels who knows/cares?

 

[Winterfold]

I am not convinced that Froome is better than an in-form Wiggins.

Yes, he might be better than an "I just crashed, and conserved my energy badly during the ITT" Wiggins. But better than an in-form Wiggins?

+1 No way Wiggins screws up his pacing in the ITT like that again. Froome will not be close.

Also, Froome will be watched carefully, in more ways than one

 

[theyoungest]

Of course it's speculation, that's what we're all doing. You're the one who is trying to assess Froome's Tour chances based on the result of one completely atypical stage of the Vuelta. That's about as speculative as it gets I'd have thought.

It's clear he was pacing Wiggins, so how can you deny he would have been further up the road if he hadn't had to? Menchov presumably would have stuck with Wiggins and Poels who knows/cares?

And you're the one saying he'd surely finished 2nd on that stage...

Could be, of course. I don't think he could have done better on the Angliru, but there's certainly a few stages when he rode about half the climb on the front, into a headwind. By all means a more impressive performance than the guy on his wheel, Wiggins.

 

[Dancing On The Pedals]

For me, Froome needs to show that he can produce his Vuelta performance again. I suspect that he will go to the Tour as a domestique and then target the Vuelta as team leader - anyone able to confirm or deny this? Also, I don't see Wiggins cracking as much in France, as there are none of the super steep ramps that Angliru has. More gradual climbs with easier gradients he can diesel his way up quite effectively

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Menchov would have spent the whole climb on Froome's wheel and taken the 2nd place from him anyway. If Menchov hadn't been such an idiot in week 1, he'd have won that Vuelta easily, because he was super strong in week 3.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Of course it's speculation, that's what we're all doing. You're the one who is trying to assess Froome's Tour chances based on the result of one completely atypical stage of the Vuelta. That's about as speculative as it gets I'd have thought.

It's clear he was pacing Wiggins, so how can you deny he would have been further up the road if he hadn't had to? Menchov presumably would have stuck with Wiggins and Poels who knows/cares?

It wasn't clear to me, sure he was at the front of wiggo on the climb but on slopes like this it means little. Like I said even when wiggo was gone, in the last few km froome made no ground on the others in the group either.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Again. Big difference between Cobo and Froome. Froome is a great tter and Cobo isnt.

Oh and @ youngest i have high expectations for Velits at the Tour yes.



And Cobo. Cobo won on time bonuses and cos Froome was working for Wiggins. Froome was the better rider.

Really??? I don't think Velits will ever, ever, become a good Tour rider. Maybe top 10 with a lucky break somewhere. But he's nowhere good enough climbing...

 

[El Pistolero]

He'll own at the Tour.

 

[jens_attacks]

looking at the belgian teams this last two years,i think velits has a shot at the top5 in le tour.but he has to survive to the first week crash festival to do it.

 

[greenedge]

Not quite so. I can assure you that post-suspended Basso is still at least no worse tter than Cobo. Lets take Vuelta 2009 results (the most demonstrative example since both finished the race in top-10): prologue, one absolutely flat 30km tt and one 28km almost flat and Basso is slightly faster in every of these tts (I won’t even take head-to-head Basso vs Cobo tt results as an argument because it would be the kind of a low blow, since Basso was hands down better time trialist before suspension and the year 2010 wasn’t good for Cobo).
It’s not that easy with Scarponi because he has never ridden the Tour-like long flat tts (apart from this year’s Vuelta which I don’t take into consideration for obvious reasons) but I can assure you (again ) that Scarponi is at least no worse tter than post-suspended Basso since for the last two years Basso hasn’t won any tt against Scarponi.
Important. Don’t get me wrong in the end, I’m not trying to disparage Froome’s talent. If the guy can tt and at the same time climb on the Angliru-like walls he definitely has an awesome GT potential but still the Vuelta 2011 was not a race that unambiguously makes Chris a Tour 2012 favourite or just better than Wiggins. Probably in several years (maybe even in 2013) he will become the biggest British Tour hope but imo it won’t happen this year.

I never said they were that bad, just not great.

 

[greenedge]

In a perfect, black and white, world Sky will be doing this. Yet other factors play out: Wiggins' ego, Froome not being a pure Brit (politics) might prevent Froome from riding the Tour this year.

Cav is not Pure British either. Neither is Murray, yet that does not stop them from claiming each of the 2.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

It wasn't clear to me, sure he was at the front of wiggo on the climb but on slopes like this it means little. Like I said even when wiggo was gone, in the last few km froome made no ground on the others in the group either.

If it means so little, how come Froome, Menchov and Poels (and Wiggins for the most part) were separated by no more than a bike length or two for the whole climb? Coincidence?

 

[Captain_Cavman]

Cav is not Pure British either. Neither is Murray, yet that does not stop them from claiming each of the 2.

Are you sure you're not confusing Andy Murray with Chris Evert Lloyd?

 

[Duartista]

WRT to Froome/Wiggins, it shouldn't be a big problem because unlike in the Vuelta there will be no need for Sky to set the pace on the climbs. Radioshack will surely take that responsibility. It will quickly become obvious if Wiggins isn't up to it.

As for Velits, I imagine he will be working for Leipheimer, who was saying in L'Equipe yesterday that he's aiming for the win.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

WRT to Froome/Wiggins, it shouldn't be a big problem because unlike in the Vuelta there will be no need for Sky to set the pace on the climbs. Radioshack will surely take that responsibility. It will quickly become obvious if Wiggins isn't up to it.

As for Velits, I imagine he will be working for Leipheimer, who was saying in L'Equipe yesterday that he's aiming for the win.

That would make sense as Leipheimer is their only outside chance of a top 5, or podium. Velits certainly isn't. His track record as a climber is wishy-washy at best.

 

[movingtarget]

WRT to Froome/Wiggins, it shouldn't be a big problem because unlike in the Vuelta there will be no need for Sky to set the pace on the climbs. Radioshack will surely take that responsibility. It will quickly become obvious if Wiggins isn't up to it.

As for Velits, I imagine he will be working for Leipheimer, who was saying in L'Equipe yesterday that he's aiming for the win.

I'm not sure R/Shack will set the pace. I think they will send riders like Kloeden and Frank Schleck up the road. They will play tactical games and try more breakaways. If they wait for Contador to attack they can't win. But they can draw out riders like Menchov, Wiggins and Evans who prefer to ride defensively in the mountains and make up time in the TTs. The advantage they have is that while I can't see a R/Shack rider winning the Tour, the other teams will not be able to give riders like Kloeden and Horner and Frank too much time. They are all top 10 riders. If Cancellara wins the prologue, I don't think R/Shack will defend the yellow jersey.

 

[gustienordic]

That would make sense as Leipheimer is their only outside chance of a top 5, or podium. Velits certainly isn't. His track record as a climber is wishy-washy at best.

Martin has a better chance than Velits... just saying. Though when Velits is on good form and having a good day he can climb fairly well.

 

[Parrulo]

Martin has a better chance than Velits... just saying. Though when Velits is on good form and having a good day he can climb fairly well.

ya a guy that's has never shown any ability to climb has a better shot at a tour podium then a guy who already made the podium on a GT, that makes sense . . . .

on the luz ardiden stage last year velits crashed and then had 2 mechanicals on the way to the tourmalet so he had the to do both the tourmalet and luz ardiden on his own trying to cut his losses, and despite all that and having started the tourmalet climb about 2 minutes behind the main group where martin was he still managed to finish like 4 minutes ahead of martin and around the top 20/top 25 of the stage.

he also there on the stages to gap and the Alpe even tho his GC placing was long ruined.

and btw since this is the froome thread in before some1 uses the argument that velits podium place was a fluke on the vuelta, so was froome's and people are saying he has a chance at the podium, which he might due to the amount of itt k's

 

[will10]

Martin has a better chance than Velits... just saying. Though when Velits is on good form and having a good day he can climb fairly well.

Martin has a better chance than Velits of winning a stage and losing 10 minutes on the first mountain stage, but a better chance of finishing high on GC? Martin is completely unproven over three weeks, Velits finished 3rd at the Vuelta. Nuff said