acoggan said:
First, I would submit that calling 94 mL/min/kg "alien" implies that you don't believe such "context" is really necessary, i.e., you have established a clearly demarcated "doping line" for VO2max (just as others have for power output), at least in your head.
Words like "alien", and especially "exceedingly unlikely" point not to an absolute line, but to very high probabilities, the essence of science. It is very well established that a V02 max this high is indeed exceedingly rare. And a line is frequently drawn at p values like 0.01, with the understanding that the line is not absolute, but nevertheless a very good indicator.
Second, even if you had historical data on Froome, what would a sudden increase in his VO2max tell you that a sudden increase in his actual performance would not?
Given that every time Froome decimates the peloton on a climb, in a time ranking him right up there with known recent dopers, people come crawling out of the woodwork to argue it wasn’t really that impressive—because of a tailwind, because the competition is weak, etc.—I would say a sudden increase in VO2 max would tell us a lot more than a sudden increase in performance. Everyone agrees Froome is performing much better now than he did two years ago, but there appears to be very strong debate over whether his performance puts him in the ranks previously populated only by known dopers. IOW, performance is relative, V02 max is much less so.
I believe you among others have been arguing that wattage values calculated on road performance are of very limited use, because of all the variables that go into them. Having a VO2 max eliminates those variables.