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Froome vs Quintana vs Contador

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I expect Froome suffer as usual last week, after dominating the first two. For me it is a its limit the last week, where he does not collapse but becomes vulnerable. we have already seen in 2013 and 2015, and is not a matter of praparazione in my opinion.
Let's be realistic: if in 2015 the Movistar didn't have Valverde to pick up at all costs on the podium, they would have done hard race and Froome would have lost (without talk about wind stage where Nairo lost a minute and half ).
 
Third week is not a problem for him, Put you there a long 50 Km flat ITt as it was usual and quintana will be at 4 minutes behind and Contador will be 2 minutes behind.

The problem is that if you are not a pure climber, after lot of days of mountains, pure climbers have advantage, and in a stage with little flat, can beat Froome. But does he really fade the last week with Contador, a rider with very good recovery?

In 2008 his best stage was the last ITT, in 2011 Vuelta he was the strornger at the end, and the year Wiggins won he was very strong as well the last week .But it i a differet perception if people as Quintana is there and if there is no a flat ITT.

Froome is not going to fade the last week, but of course after the flat he will be the stronger in the mountains and later could be stronger people...

Last week:

http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=21641
http://www.cqranking.com/men/asp/gen/race.asp?raceid=21645
 
I don't know. Valverde strikes me as having a rather important job over there, trying to chase down one or another attack. I think maybe Aru can be a factor there, but it's all quite blurry.
Stage 7, on the other hand, seems to me as being kind of perfect for an Astana/Movistar partnership, particularly after the Col D'Aspin.
 
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Miburo said:
lenric said:
I'll laugh if Contador teams up with Froome to get Nairo :p

Stage 5, i would try something for sure. Doesn't suit quintana at all, explosive and in the first week

Stage 5 will be a tester no doubt, but if I was a leader I would have my team primed for protection on Stage 2 before that. Then it's bang bang bang Stages 7,8 & 9. Really not sure at all who the first week suits best. Leaning towards Froome and his boys I think...
 
This is how I foresee the battle between the big three in this year's Tour:

IF Contador reaches Froome's level and appear equal ala 2014 - I'd say either Contador or Quintana win
IF Fromme is slightly above about Contador in a all -out-battle - I'd say Quintana wins.
IF Froome's is far above Contador's - I'd say either Froome of Quintana win.
IF Quintana's form has gotten much better than last year's - Quintana wins

IF all three go thermonuclear - WE ALL WIN :)
 
Singer01 said:
Scarponi said:
In the past the Sky train has only had to deal with weak attacks (Evans 2012, Contador, valverde last year) or minimal amount of stages in a row from Quintana. I think this year by the third week the train is going to be cooked, we already saw last year at times Froome only had one rider left and they did not attack as much as this year will with Contador, Aru and Quintana all together. Recovery is just as important for Froomes train seeing they are riding hard in the mountains most days.
i think their method last year of not having the whole train working every day may have been specifically to counter this.
if you use up Landa and Henao one day, and Poels and G the next neither 'team' gets really tired and then can stay with him right up to the end.

Jumping back to this, I 100% agree with your opinion

Sky's big strength isn't necessarily that they have the mythical train chugging away day in day out, it's that they are able to cycle their doms effectively so they end up with multiple riders putting in huge supporting efforts across the tour. See last year where we had Porte, Thomas and Poels all offering huge efforts on select stages.
 
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BlurryVII said:
Dauphiné 14' was neither Contador's nor Froome's best. Maybe Froome's but certainly not Contador's. It's quite incredible to still pick that race, which is essentially preperation, as supposedly a reference point just because they were wheel to wheel lol.

No, not at their best, but at similar stages to peaking in their preparations. Froome going on to win the TDF in 2013 and 2015 after winning the Dauphne shows that he doesn't peak for Dauphne, though is not a massive distance off it. Likewise Contador in 2014 had very good form in the Dauphne, and would have won it if not for a weak team.

I think that race is a better reference than the '14 Vuelta, because whilst the standard in Spain was a little higher, I think that race showed us more so that Contador is better than anyone else at handling adversity. They both had to recover from injuries. Froome responded very well, but Contador even better. He is better than anyone when his back is against the wall. Take the Vuelta '12 of course, but even the final ITT of the TDF '11; a very solid ride after exhausting himself in the Alps (and in the Giro) and having that banged up knee. Still pulled out a good ride.
 
Feb 21, 2014
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Re: Re:

Valv.Piti said:
BlurryVII said:
Dauphiné 14' was neither Contador's nor Froome's best. Maybe Froome's but certainly not Contador's. It's quite incredible to still pick that race, which is essentially preperation, as supposedly a reference point just because they were wheel to wheel lol.

I think thats the problem with you. In what world was Froome at his best at Dauphine 2014, but oh no, Contador most certainly wasn't?

It just doesn't make sense. You can tell that to yourself over and over, but it won't make it true.

Just like saying Froome's absolute best is better because he won a prologue at the Dauphiné and Col du beal by 0 second on Contador who was back from 8 weeks break and looked twice skinnier at the Tour.

That's *** just as much.
 
Re: Re:

BlurryVII said:
Valv.Piti said:
BlurryVII said:
Dauphiné 14' was neither Contador's nor Froome's best. Maybe Froome's but certainly not Contador's. It's quite incredible to still pick that race, which is essentially preperation, as supposedly a reference point just because they were wheel to wheel lol.

I think thats the problem with you. In what world was Froome at his best at Dauphine 2014, but oh no, Contador most certainly wasn't?

It just doesn't make sense. You can tell that to yourself over and over, but it won't make it true.

Just like saying Froome's absolute best is better because he won a prologue at the Dauphiné and Col du beal by 0 second on Contador who was back from 8 weeks break and looked twice skinnier at the Tour.

That's ****** just as much.
forget about that theory. quintana wrecked it in the tour of catalunya.
 
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Re: Re:

dacooley said:
BlurryVII said:
Valv.Piti said:
BlurryVII said:
Dauphiné 14' was neither Contador's nor Froome's best. Maybe Froome's but certainly not Contador's. It's quite incredible to still pick that race, which is essentially preperation, as supposedly a reference point just because they were wheel to wheel lol.

I think thats the problem with you. In what world was Froome at his best at Dauphine 2014, but oh no, Contador most certainly wasn't?

It just doesn't make sense. You can tell that to yourself over and over, but it won't make it true.

Just like saying Froome's absolute best is better because he won a prologue at the Dauphiné and Col du beal by 0 second on Contador who was back from 8 weeks break and looked twice skinnier at the Tour.

That's ****** just as much.
forget about that theory. quintana wrecked it in the tour of catalunya.

They don't have the same physiology, now do they?
I'd rather refer myself to AC in previous Dauphiné's who was miles from his Tour shape. But thanks for your input.
 
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Froome winning 3 Dauphiné's and AC 0 would suggest that one is usually closer to top shape at that point than the other. Just common sense.
 
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BlurryVII said:
Froome winning 3 Dauphiné's and AC 0 would suggest that one is usually closer to top shape at that point than the other. Just common sense.
my humble 5 cents is that you rely on the 2007-2010 dauphine way too much. that's been awhile since then. opposition changed, training methodics changed, cycling itself is constantly changing. so 2013, 2014, 2016 are way more representative. in a month we'll know the whole picture. :p
 
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Valv.Piti said:
BlurryVII said:
Dauphiné 14' was neither Contador's nor Froome's best. Maybe Froome's but certainly not Contador's. It's quite incredible to still pick that race, which is essentially preperation, as supposedly a reference point just because they were wheel to wheel lol.

I think thats the problem with you. In what world was Froome at his best at Dauphine 2014, but oh no, Contador most certainly wasn't?

It just doesn't make sense. You can tell that to yourself over and over, but it won't make it true.

I think given their approaches to the Dauphine, I would say that Froome was closer to his peak than Contador. That was true in 2014 and I think it was true this year as well.
 
Re: Re:

Publicus said:
Valv.Piti said:
BlurryVII said:
Dauphiné 14' was neither Contador's nor Froome's best. Maybe Froome's but certainly not Contador's. It's quite incredible to still pick that race, which is essentially preperation, as supposedly a reference point just because they were wheel to wheel lol.

I think thats the problem with you. In what world was Froome at his best at Dauphine 2014, but oh no, Contador most certainly wasn't?

It just doesn't make sense. You can tell that to yourself over and over, but it won't make it true.

I think given their approaches to the Dauphine, I would say that Froome was closer to his peak than Contador. That was true in 2014 and I think it was true this year as well.
How do we know? Its all based on what we'd like to think.
 
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People forget that Contador has never used to win Dauphine, he said it himself even before this years the objective was to get speed in his legs and use it only as good training and he wouldnt empty himself completely, and he looked damn fine doing it aswell. Hes gonne be a beast in this years Tour, and we all know that if Contador is in beast form noone can touch him!

Only 16 days left, AC gonne be a beast this years TDF barring any injuries etc some people who already seem to have forgotten will get surprised what a fresh in-form Contador do to people.

1. Contador
2. Really torn betwen Quintana and Froome but I suspect over the 3 weeks Quintana will edge him this time
3. Froome.


Btw found this funny and couldnt agree more and I bet 80% of the cycling world agree aswell ''Romain Bardet: "Modern cycling bores me. Fortunately, there still are riders like Alberto Contador. He inspires me." (L'Equipe)
 
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I guess we'll see, but regardless bringing the Dauphiné 14' once again always makes me laugh lol.
Pretty sure Froome would've still lost on Finault Emosson without the crash seeing his inconsistency day by day and Contador obviously getting better.
 
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nesvik said:
People forget that Contador has never used to win Dauphine, he said it himself even before this years the objective was to get speed in his legs and use it only as good training and he wouldnt empty himself completely, and he looked damn fine doing it aswell. Hes gonne be a beast in this years Tour, and we all know that if Contador is in beast form noone can touch him!

Sure matey.
 
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dacooley said:
BlurryVII said:
Froome winning 3 Dauphiné's and AC 0 would suggest that one is usually closer to top shape at that point than the other. Just common sense.
my humble 5 cents is that you rely on the 2007-2010 dauphine way too much. that's been awhile since then. opposition changed, training methodics changed, cycling itself is constantly changing. so 2013, 2014, 2016 are way more representative. in a month we'll know the whole picture. :p

2013-16 are consistent with his same approach IMO. By his own admission before this Dauphine he never targets the overall for this race. If were to come, so be it, but he doesn't approach it that way (compare to Paris Nice and Catalunya where he was targeting overall). I don't think he wanted to lose time on Stage 5, but at the same time, I don't think it surprised him (he was saying that he lacked speed in his legs and that he was hoping to get that from the Dauphine--all of this before the race started and even after he had the maillot jaune). Maybe I'm just a fan boy, but I think he's happy with where things are heading into the TdF (given that it is back loaded with the final week and a half).