Froome vs Quintana vs Contador

[Jspear]

AC fans will say the time could have been taken back.
Nibbes fans will say it never would have happened.
It was 2 years ago...who cares anymore.

 

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

He showed this though, and knowing how strong nibali was, it says something

He showed what, a 4 second gap on Nibali on one stage?

We don't really have a good idea of how strong Nibali was that year. He did beat a bunch of no namers at the time and even if some numbers were impressive, remember that Armstrong posted some crazy numbers back in 2009, yet none would argue he was close to his old elf even if the numbers did indicate it.

The only thing that we saw was that Contador was 2,5 minutes behind in GC as he abandons. And there were no illness and no crash before. Contador looked terrible at the cobblestage. Without suples, without power. The weakest of all GC riders. After that stage he was not able to drop Nibali at the first uphill finish, and it was by far not the strongest stage from Nibali. Two days later he crashed out. So i don't know why everybody hyped the 2014 Tour from Contador. He rode his worst first tour-week in his entire life.

Contador was in great shape. He is bad in cobbles!!! people are so dumb...that they don't understand this nothing have to do with shape but skills... is like ask to quintana if he could win a flat TT...

The year Frank Schleck crashed on the cobbles (or in between cobbled sectors) resulting in Contador having to ride the rest of the course with a warped wheel, he was on the front with Cancellara and Andy Schleck, having a fine day on the cobbles. He a lost a minute or so because of the crash, otherwise it can be believed that he could have finished without losing any time at all. I think he is well-rounded enough that he can hold his own on the cobbles with his grand tour gc rivals with the possible exception of Nibali.

 

[lenric]

About the cobbles stage (fifth stage I guess):

If the data of Vincenzo Nibali's dominating performance in Stage 5 of this year's TdF is correct (cyclingpro.it), then it is interesting to make some considerations on the numbers reported.



3h19’ at 285w average correspond to about 3600 Kcal.



In the stage, Nibali rode approximately:



- 75' at 180w average = 800 Kcal

- 34' at 260w average = 530 Kcal

- 26' at 320w average = 510 Kcal

- 24' to 390W average = 560 Kcal

- 17' at 450w average = 460 kcal

- 16' to 530W medium = 500 Kcal

- 8' above 600w = 290 kcal



Of the above caloric expenditure, 65' (from/above 390W average) were obtained, given the intensity, by CHO alone for a total of 1810 Kcal = 450g of glycogen.

Another 60' (from 260w to 320w average) came from the mix of approximately 70% CHO - 30% fat, with an additional consumption of 180g of glycogen.

The remaining 75' at 180w average utilized a mix of 50% CHO - 50% fat, which means another 100g of glycogen burned.



A total of 730g of glycogen assume a supersaturation of muscle and liver deposits that is difficult to achieve for an athlete of 63kg, within the few hours between two stages of the TdF.

Hence the hypothesis that Nibali actually expressed an incredibly high LIPID POWER that has allowed him to consume less glycogen than calculated above.



From the the average power outputs that he expressed (41 min above 450w) we can imagine an AT4 of at least 440W, equal to 6.98 w/kg, assuming a weight of 63 kg.

About the tour as a whole and Nibali particularly:

(...)
Apparently without ever engaging in a full on effort, he seemed to play with his opponents on the climbs, often expressing powers between 6.00 and 6.3 w/kg (378-397 watts, assuming a weight of 63kg), never showing a decline in performance in the three-week race.



An interesting analysis of the 17th stage, 3h35' for about 124 km, arriving in Pla d 'Adet:



- on the Portillon (590m at 7%) Nibali's group climbed in 22' at 5.94 w/kg

- on the Peyresourde (925m at 7%) he climbed in 40' at 5.13 w/kg

- the Val-Louron Azet (614m at 8.3%) was done by the best riders in 22'50" at 5.77 w/kg

- on the Pla d 'Adet (846m at 8.3%) Nibali climbed in 30'30" - 1664 m/h - 5.94 w/kg



Considering only the KOM climbs, the total climbing was nearly 3000m, done in about 115min.

The average power developed by Nibali on the 4 ascents was 5.63 w/kg = 355 watts (63kg).

An average power of 355W requires an expenditure of 1280 Kcal/h; therefore in those 115min of 4 KOM alone, the caloric request is 2450 Kcal.

Considering the expressed intensities, normally this energy demand could be met only by CHO: it would require about 612g.

If we imagine the rest of the stage, about 1h40', to be done at an average of 220 watts, it required approximately an additional 1400 kcal, of which at least 50% were provided by another 175g of CHO...



Almost 800g of CHO is an amount that far exceeds the maximum capacity of saturation of glycogen stores and therefore confirms the extraordinary ability of Nibali to use fat as fuel, saving the CHO for the final stage, where he made the difference over the rivals.



On the ascent to Hautacam (13.6 km at 7.8%) Vincenzo rode alone "in the wind" for 11 km, climbing in 37'30", VAM = 1696 m/h = 6.28 w/kg = 395w.

Everything was taken from here:

http://www.53x12.com/#!2014/bbivf

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re:

AC fans will say the time could have been taken back.
Nibbes fans will say it never would have happened.
It was 2 years ago...who cares anymore.

That's one of the great things about cycling. You can talk about it and discuss it even after years has passed. How many other sports can you say that about?

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

AC fans will say the time could have been taken back.
Nibbes fans will say it never would have happened.
It was 2 years ago...who cares anymore.

That's one of the great things about cycling. You can talk about it and discuss it even after years has passed. How many other sports can you say that about?

Oh I know.
I have taken part in this conversation many times, but now it's whatever. There aren't enough "hard facts" imo.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

One major advantage for Froome over his rivals is his training group. Not only is it incredibly advantageous to race behind the Sky Train, but he gets to do his training rides pushed by Landa, Poels, Thomas, and Froome until recently. Each are very, very accomplished riders in their own right and can doubtless push him in training rides, replicating conditions he will face against Quintana and Contador. Meanwhile, neither Quintana nor Contador has access to the same level of world class talent to train with.

 

[Pantani_lives]

One major advantage for Froome over his rivals is his training group. Not only is it incredibly advantageous to race behind the Sky Train, but he gets to do his training rides pushed by Landa, Poels, Thomas, and Froome until recently. Each are very, very accomplished riders in their own right and can doubtless push him in training rides, replicating conditions he will face against Quintana and Contador. Meanwhile, neither Quintana nor Contador has access to the same level of world class talent to train with.

The strength of Froome's team almost gives him an unfair advantage. His opponents have to attack twice: first to isolate him, then to drop him. It can be really discouraging if your rival still has four teammates with him while you're on your own.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

AC fans will say the time could have been taken back.
Nibbes fans will say it never would have happened.
It was 2 years ago...who cares anymore.

Actually, a lot of people

But you were right in the other post,its a bit pointless speculation

 

[SeriousSam]

We can say quite a bit about the Tour 2014 supposing that Contador hadn't crashed by drawing upon the best predictor available in cycling, the odds. Whatever the odds were that Nibli would win before Contador crashed is a good baseline estimate for the chance Nibali would win, had Contador not crashed out. A good baseline, but not the same thing because we now know more than we knew back then.

Those odds are actually a lower bound for the chance Nibali would have won, because they were based on information available up to that point, which included Contador's strong performance and Nibali's suckage in preceding races, but not that Nibali would go on to reach a climbing level he hadn't before and hasn't since.

So however likely Nibali was to win before Contador crashed according to the markets, knowing what we know now, he would be at least as likely to have won, had Contador not crashed.

 

[nesvik]

If history tells us anything I suspect it will be something ala Vuelta 14 with Contador vs Froome last time Froome faced a somewhat fresh or atleast the freshest hes faced, and that result speak for itself.

This year TDF Contador will be fresh and inform and noone will be able to touch him. Quintana will be the closest.

1. Contador
2. Quintana
3. Froome

 

[Valv.Piti]

Does your every post have to include a top-3? We know you think Contador will win, chill matey

 

[bassano]

tour 14 is just a speculation but clear is that we missed great show because contador crashed, it could be one of best tour in many years

 

[winkybiker]

Re:

About the cobbles stage (fifth stage I guess):

If the data of Vincenzo Nibali's dominating performance in Stage 5 of this year's TdF is correct (cyclingpro.it), then it is interesting to make some considerations on the numbers reported.



3h19’ at 285w average correspond to about 3600 Kcal.



In the stage, Nibali rode approximately:



- 75' at 180w average = 800 Kcal

- 34' at 260w average = 530 Kcal

- 26' at 320w average = 510 Kcal

- 24' to 390W average = 560 Kcal

- 17' at 450w average = 460 kcal

- 16' to 530W medium = 500 Kcal

- 8' above 600w = 290 kcal



Of the above caloric expenditure, 65' (from/above 390W average) were obtained, given the intensity, by CHO alone for a total of 1810 Kcal = 450g of glycogen.

Another 60' (from 260w to 320w average) came from the mix of approximately 70% CHO - 30% fat, with an additional consumption of 180g of glycogen.

The remaining 75' at 180w average utilized a mix of 50% CHO - 50% fat, which means another 100g of glycogen burned.



A total of 730g of glycogen assume a supersaturation of muscle and liver deposits that is difficult to achieve for an athlete of 63kg, within the few hours between two stages of the TdF.

Hence the hypothesis that Nibali actually expressed an incredibly high LIPID POWER that has allowed him to consume less glycogen than calculated above.



From the the average power outputs that he expressed (41 min above 450w) we can imagine an AT4 of at least 440W, equal to 6.98 w/kg, assuming a weight of 63 kg.

About the tour as a whole and Nibali particularly:

(...)
Apparently without ever engaging in a full on effort, he seemed to play with his opponents on the climbs, often expressing powers between 6.00 and 6.3 w/kg (378-397 watts, assuming a weight of 63kg), never showing a decline in performance in the three-week race.



An interesting analysis of the 17th stage, 3h35' for about 124 km, arriving in Pla d 'Adet:



- on the Portillon (590m at 7%) Nibali's group climbed in 22' at 5.94 w/kg

- on the Peyresourde (925m at 7%) he climbed in 40' at 5.13 w/kg

- the Val-Louron Azet (614m at 8.3%) was done by the best riders in 22'50" at 5.77 w/kg

- on the Pla d 'Adet (846m at 8.3%) Nibali climbed in 30'30" - 1664 m/h - 5.94 w/kg



Considering only the KOM climbs, the total climbing was nearly 3000m, done in about 115min.

The average power developed by Nibali on the 4 ascents was 5.63 w/kg = 355 watts (63kg).

An average power of 355W requires an expenditure of 1280 Kcal/h; therefore in those 115min of 4 KOM alone, the caloric request is 2450 Kcal.

Considering the expressed intensities, normally this energy demand could be met only by CHO: it would require about 612g.

If we imagine the rest of the stage, about 1h40', to be done at an average of 220 watts, it required approximately an additional 1400 kcal, of which at least 50% were provided by another 175g of CHO...



Almost 800g of CHO is an amount that far exceeds the maximum capacity of saturation of glycogen stores and therefore confirms the extraordinary ability of Nibali to use fat as fuel, saving the CHO for the final stage, where he made the difference over the rivals.



On the ascent to Hautacam (13.6 km at 7.8%) Vincenzo rode alone "in the wind" for 11 km, climbing in 37'30", VAM = 1696 m/h = 6.28 w/kg = 395w.

Everything was taken from here:

http://www.53x12.com/#!2014/bbivf

I'm so glad these guys actually have to race their bikes against each other to determine who wins. It would be a bit of a borefest for them just go to a lab and post a set of "winning" w/kg numbers. But then I don't really like Strava either.....

 

[lenric]

Well, I agree. Watts per kg are a measure of physical prowess, which by itself is one thing that is necessary to win. However, having it doesn't mean you'll win.
For instance, a physical strong guy, though mentally weak, can push the most w/kg, but may not win, due to being nervous about his competition, which will probably make him have a worst rest, thus a worst recuperation and his w/kg will be harmed.

However, for those guys who like statistics and data it's cool to read this kind of stuff.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

Does your every post have to include a top-3? We know you think Contador will win, chill matey

You should cool down yourself he can write whatever he want,this thread is about those 3 riders

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Does your every post have to include a top-3? We know you think Contador will win, chill matey

You should cool down yourself he can write whatever he want,this thread is about those 3 riders

7 posts, 7 top-3's

Maybe I should

 

[Poursuivant]

“My main rivals will be Contador and Froome. We must find a strategy and wait to see how they go in the mountains,” Quintana said. “We have seen Froome attack and drop Contador in the Critérium du Dauphiné. I think that they have very similar strengths and I’ll try to take advantage of their rivalry to defend myself.

“Froome’s attacks were very powerful and no one could follow. This year, he has said he has delayed his preparation a little to be at my level in the last week. Hopefully, we can put up with the attacks. I have prepared well, have made some preparations to make those changes in pace.”

Unlike his main rivals, Quintana opted not to race the Critérium du Dauphiné or the Tour de Suisse. Like in last years, he preferred to stay at home as long as possible at 2800 metres altitude before returning to Europe to take on the five stage Route du Sud.

 

[infeXio]

Re:

“My main rivals will be Contador and Froome. We must find a strategy and wait to see how they go in the mountains,” Quintana said. “We have seen Froome attack and drop Contador in the Critérium du Dauphiné. I think that they have very similar strengths and I’ll try to take advantage of their rivalry to defend myself.

“Froome’s attacks were very powerful and no one could follow. This year, he has said he has delayed his preparation a little to be at my level in the last week. Hopefully, we can put up with the attacks. I have prepared well, have made some preparations to make those changes in pace.”

Unlike his main rivals, Quintana opted not to race the Critérium du Dauphiné or the Tour de Suisse. Like in last years, he preferred to stay at home as long as possible at 2800 metres altitude before returning to Europe to take on the five stage Route du Sud.

It sounds so utterly defensive... &#128528

 

[red zone]

Re: Re:

“My main rivals will be Contador and Froome. We must find a strategy and wait to see how they go in the mountains,” Quintana said. “We have seen Froome attack and drop Contador in the Critérium du Dauphiné. I think that they have very similar strengths and I’ll try to take advantage of their rivalry to defend myself.

“Froome’s attacks were very powerful and no one could follow. This year, he has said he has delayed his preparation a little to be at my level in the last week. Hopefully, we can put up with the attacks. I have prepared well, have made some preparations to make those changes in pace.”

Unlike his main rivals, Quintana opted not to race the Critérium du Dauphiné or the Tour de Suisse. Like in last years, he preferred to stay at home as long as possible at 2800 metres altitude before returning to Europe to take on the five stage Route du Sud.

It sounds so utterly defensive... &#128528

He should be defensive and as he says wait and see how his opponents form is in the mountains before he finalizes his strategy . There's nothing to be gained by going into the tour with a set strategy because you believe your main opponents will be in top form .

Sky/Froome doesn't look as strong as last year where Q with a little luck may have won so if i'm him i'd wheel suck until i see a good time to attack and then go full out .

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

“My main rivals will be Contador and Froome. We must find a strategy and wait to see how they go in the mountains,” Quintana said. “We have seen Froome attack and drop Contador in the Critérium du Dauphiné. I think that they have very similar strengths and I’ll try to take advantage of their rivalry to defend myself.

“Froome’s attacks were very powerful and no one could follow. This year, he has said he has delayed his preparation a little to be at my level in the last week. Hopefully, we can put up with the attacks. I have prepared well, have made some preparations to make those changes in pace.”

Unlike his main rivals, Quintana opted not to race the Critérium du Dauphiné or the Tour de Suisse. Like in last years, he preferred to stay at home as long as possible at 2800 metres altitude before returning to Europe to take on the five stage Route du Sud.

omg Nairo,grow some balls

 

[infeXio]

Re: Re:

“My main rivals will be Contador and Froome. We must find a strategy and wait to see how they go in the mountains,” Quintana said. “We have seen Froome attack and drop Contador in the Critérium du Dauphiné. I think that they have very similar strengths and I’ll try to take advantage of their rivalry to defend myself.

“Froome’s attacks were very powerful and no one could follow. This year, he has said he has delayed his preparation a little to be at my level in the last week. Hopefully, we can put up with the attacks. I have prepared well, have made some preparations to make those changes in pace.”

Unlike his main rivals, Quintana opted not to race the Critérium du Dauphiné or the Tour de Suisse. Like in last years, he preferred to stay at home as long as possible at 2800 metres altitude before returning to Europe to take on the five stage Route du Sud.

It sounds so utterly defensive... &#128528

He should be defensive and as he says wait and see how his opponents form is in the mountains before he finalizes his strategy . There's nothing to be gained by going into the tour with a set strategy because you believe your main opponents will be in top form .

Sky/Froome doesn't look as strong as last year where Q with a little luck may have won so if i'm him i'd wheel suck until i see a good time to attack and then go full out .

I don't particularly disagree with him having to assess Froome's (and Contador's) strength, but I just long for him stating an actual intention to attack and wanting to take on the obstacles with an offensive attitude, rather than just persisting with the defensive mind set - especially as he himself does seem to have the strength and ability to do so. - Or - as Ilovecycling so neatly put it!

 

[hfer07]

This is how I foresee the battle between the big three in this year's Tour:

IF Contador reaches Froome's level and appear equal ala 2014 - I'd say either Contador or Quintana win
IF Fromme is slightly above about Contador in a all -out-battle - I'd say Quintana wins.
IF Froome's is far above Contador's - I'd say either Froome of Quintana win.
IF Quintana's form has gotten much better than last year's - Quintana wins

IF all three go thermonuclear - WE ALL WIN

So Froome hasn't a chance?

yes- just read my post once more

IOW for him to win this year's tour, either he goes a level beyond thermonuclear to demolish them all OR he's going to have a lot of resistance to win if all three are equal in shape.

 

[red zone]

Re: Re:

“My main rivals will be Contador and Froome. We must find a strategy and wait to see how they go in the mountains,” Quintana said. “We have seen Froome attack and drop Contador in the Critérium du Dauphiné. I think that they have very similar strengths and I’ll try to take advantage of their rivalry to defend myself.

“Froome’s attacks were very powerful and no one could follow. This year, he has said he has delayed his preparation a little to be at my level in the last week. Hopefully, we can put up with the attacks. I have prepared well, have made some preparations to make those changes in pace.”

Unlike his main rivals, Quintana opted not to race the Critérium du Dauphiné or the Tour de Suisse. Like in last years, he preferred to stay at home as long as possible at 2800 metres altitude before returning to Europe to take on the five stage Route du Sud.

It sounds so utterly defensive... &#128528

He should be defensive and as he says wait and see how his opponents form is in the mountains before he finalizes his strategy . There's nothing to be gained by going into the tour with a set strategy because you believe your main opponents will be in top form .

Sky/Froome doesn't look as strong as last year where Q with a little luck may have won so if i'm him i'd wheel suck until i see a good time to attack and then go full out .

I don't particularly disagree with him having to assess Froome's (and Contador's) strength, but I just long for him stating an actual intention to attack and wanting to take on the obstacles with an offensive attitude, rather than just persisting with the defensive mind set - especially as he himself does seem to have the strength and ability to do so. - Or - as Ilovecycling so neatly put it!

It would be entertaining if he had a more outgoing personality but i believe he will attack and attack on multiple stages whether he says it or not . He attacked multiple times last year so i don't see why that would change this year regardless of what he says leading up to the tour .

Froome seems to need to have a set plan and doesn't react well when things don't go according to script , so i believe the time to attack him is before he attacks . Let his train do there thing and when the majority of them have peeled off attack , there's no use going too early when he has numbers since they'll just pace him back up .

 

[SeriousSam]

That would work only if Quintana is stronger than Froome, but if so, he might as well attack Froome once he's attacked and gain more time than he would following your advice. If Quintana can stay with Froome, he should probably do what Contador did at the Vuelta in 2014, hang on for dear life and then gain 10-15 seconds in a last km sprint.

Unless of course Quintana is a lot stronger. Than he could try attacking from further out and put serious time into Froome.

 

[Valv.Piti]

That would work only if Quintana is stronger than Froome, but if so, he might as well attack Froome once he's attacked and gain more time than he would following your advice. If Quintana can stay with Froome, he should probably do what Contador did at the Vuelta in 2014, hang on for dear life and then gain 10-15 seconds in a last km sprint.

Unless of course Quintana is a lot stronger. Than he could try attacking from further out and put serious time into Froome.

Everything indicates so far that Quintana '16 is a superior climber to Quintana '15. But how much?
The other question Froome which is more uncertain. I think he have progressed very slightly from '15, I don't think he was super strong '13-esque, but minimally. The interesting part is how much worse he will be early on and how much better later? Intriguing.