acoggan said:
Indeed, I did miss it, but one possible explanation (aside from fatigue, tactics, etc.) is that there is indeed an inverse relationship between VO2max and fractional utilization, and/or between VO2max and efficiency, such that individuals capable of such a performance are less common than you might expect based on non-association between the three parameters.
As an example: assume* that 25% of the pro peloton has the requisite VO2max, but only 25% of those can maintain 90% of VO2max for an extended duration, and only half of those have average efficiency. Then only 3% of the riders would be capable of producing 6.1 W/kg up one of the longer climbs even when fresh.
But there is no evidence at all for an inverse relationship between utilization and V02max, is there? Or between LT, which I assume must correlate fairly well with utilization, and V02max? In one of your own studies that you linked upthread, the subjects were divided into high and low LT groups, with high > 80% and low about 65%. But the mean V02max values of the two groups were identical.
In that same study, the H group was able to ride at about 88% V02max for an average of about an hour, considerably longer than the 40-45 minutes we might consider for a typical TDF extended climb. Even the L group, with a mean LT of about 65%, averaged about 30 minutes, albeit there was a lot of variation. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I assume any elite rider would have a LT much greater than 65%, certainly after years of training.
So starting with that assumption of 25% with a V02max of 80 or greater, I’d think most of them could maintain close to 90% of that for forty minutes. As noted previously, they’d need an efficiency of about 24% to reach 6.0 W/kg. If there is an inverse correlation between efficiency and V02max, it would have to be pretty strong. Another study claiming this inverse relationship, which I’m sure you’re familiar with, by Santalla et al., examined twelve elite riders, and though they measured DE rather than GE, it seems that as many as five of them might have the values to put out about 6W/kg. This was a very select group, but if there were five in this group of twelve, there would probably be more in the peloton.
Now whether Froome has ever had his VO2max, etc., assessed before he joined Team Sky, I do not know. Maybe somebody else here does and can point to a source?
In his interview with Kimmage last year, Froome claimed his V02max was measured at about 85 in 2008 or 2009. At 90% of that, an efficiency of about 23% would be enough for 6 watts/kg.
Of course, the problem with Froome is the sudden transformation. Why was he never able to put out power anywhere near that value before the 2011 Vuelta? Beyond the schisto story, which I think has been pretty thoroughly debunked as a valid explanation, in the interview he implied that he might have increased his V02max because he lost weight. But this assumes he really could lose weight without losing any power. The Santalla study of riders between the (average) age of 22-23 and 26-27 reported no change at all in V02max, which is in line with general thinking. It would make more sense for Froome to argue that his efficiency improved, and cite Santalla. If he actually had the data, that would be very useful. But he still would be suspicious, because even researchers like Santalla, and presumably you, who believe this improvement can occur, don’t postulate that it happens overnight, in a month or two.
Someone on here I am sure will know more than me, but I am pretty sure Froomes w/kg for his ride on Tuesday that virtually exploded the clinic were the exact same as Nibali's up Hautacam last year, in fact Nibali, Bardet, Pinot and a few others went over 6 w/kg in last years Tour, I am sure there is a little graph showing w/kg on the climbs of last years TDF.
Yes, Nibs' VAM up Hautacam last year was very similar to Froome’s PSM. Also, on the Port d’Bales climb. Other climbs were shorter, and I don’t think anyone else exceeded 6 watts/kg for a climb as long as Froome’s 40+ min. But I don't think many in the Clinic believe Nibs is clean.
ASO are estimating Froome 7.04w/kg on La Peirre-Saint-Martin. Pierre Sallet.
His time doesn’t come close to indicating that, unless there was a ferocious headwind, and we know there wasn’t from Gesink’s data. In fact, if Froome was at 7.04, Quintana and some others were over 6.5.
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