Giro 2017, stage 10: Foligno - Montefalco 39,8km (ITT)

[alspacka]

Re:

If Sky are smart they will exhaust Quintana by towing Dumoulin around Italy, if he has to go really deep the tour is in the bag for Froome. It isn't even like it is against their own interests, G and Tom are similar styled climbers.

It's a good point but I doubt they have the team to do so. Movi look far stronger.

 

[yaco]

The climbers will need to attack and from far - Anyway Movie Star has the team to attack the remaining mountainous stages.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Re:

Tom D has no team for multimountain stages, that will be a serious issue... I don't think it would be a problem for movistar.

Well, that's a bit harsch. Ten Dam and Preidler are stronger than just Lawson Craddock (Vuelta 2015).

But he will miss Kelderman...Kelderman was so crucial.

 

[ice&fire]

Quintana lost nearly 4 secs/km to Dumoulin. At that rate he needs a 2 min buffer for the last ITT.

 

[alspacka]

Re: Re:

Top 10

Isn't it safe to say that it's between Quintana and Big Tom? I don't think any of the other riders can take 2:30+ minutes on Dumoulin.

Quintana needs to win at least two more stages. Bonus seconds could be crucial.

Top 5 should be almost settled. Can't see the likes of Jungles and below being competitors and they are way over a minute behind the rest.

And with Blockhaus, the hardest MTF, gone.. how is Quintana going to gain 3 minutes (with a last TT in mind)? Not saying it is impossible, just very very very hard.

Tom must be dropped on stelvio imo, umbra is too late.

 

[ontheroad]

Re: Re:

Big Tom to blow the field apart here and be the new favourite come Tuesday evening. Between the 2 TT's Tom will take 3 mins on Quintana which he will have to claw back in the mountains. He has got 30 seconds already so will have about a further 2 1/2 mins to preserve. It's doable if he just keeps riding to limit losses which I think is his gameplan.

Just as predicted. In fact the gap was even bigger than expected. Dumoulin simply has to defend his position in the mountains all the way to Milan. If he goes into the TT less than a minute down then the Giro is in the bag. So effectively he has 3 1/2 minutes to play with. That should be enough barring a bad day.

Simply? He lost 5 minutes in one mountain stage to tired Quintana at the 2015 Vuelta

He has since lost a load of weight in a bid to improve his climbing. That Vuelta performance came out of nowhere and was unexpected. Dumouling has had almost 2 years to gear himself up for a proper tilt at GC and this was his seasons target. Whatever about having a bad day, I do not envisage Dumoulin losing several minutes on one single stage.

 

[ontheroad]

Re:

Quintana lost nearly 4 secs/km to Dumoulin. At that rate he needs a 2 min buffer for the last ITT.

That could be true. I'd say the difference will be somewhere between 1.30-2.00 mins. Tom needs to preserve 3.30-4.00 mins in the mountains to go into the final TT as favourite.

 

[spalco]

Re:

Today's result makes me sad, G would have been proper in the mix. Such a shame about the crash.

Had he finished the same time as Dumoulin yesterday (which looked possible until the crash, but who knows), he would be 49 seconds down if I calculated correctly. Even if he lost 30 seconds or so more, he would still be significantly ahead of Quintana after this stage.

 

[SafeBet]

The differences in the final TT are normally much smaller. Recovery is key.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Top 10

Isn't it safe to say that it's between Quintana and Big Tom? I don't think any of the other riders can take 2:30+ minutes on Dumoulin.

Quintana needs to win at least two more stages. Bonus seconds could be crucial.

Top 5 should be almost settled. Can't see the likes of Jungles and below being competitors and they are way over a minute behind the rest.

And with Blockhaus, the hardest MTF, gone.. how is Quintana going to gain 3 minutes (with a last TT in mind)? Not saying it is impossible, just very very very hard.

Tom must be dropped on stelvio imo, umbra is too late.

Yeah, I think Quintana can drop Dumoulin on any climb he wants to. The real battle will be whether Movistar can turn their superior team strength into a several minute advantage on one stage. Sunweb need to be so alert at getting riders in the break if Dumoulin wants a chance of defending in the final week.

 

[woodburn]

Re: Re:

Big Tom to blow the field apart here and be the new favourite come Tuesday evening. Between the 2 TT's Tom will take 3 mins on Quintana which he will have to claw back in the mountains. He has got 30 seconds already so will have about a further 2 1/2 mins to preserve. It's doable if he just keeps riding to limit losses which I think is his gameplan.

Just as predicted. In fact the gap was even bigger than expected. Dumoulin simply has to defend his position in the mountains all the way to Milan. If he goes into the TT less than a minute down then the Giro is in the bag. So effectively he has 3 1/2 minutes to play with. That should be enough barring a bad day.

He could lose 3 1/2 minutes on the stage to Bormio if Quinanta drops him on Mortirolo. Without a team to chase effectively, he'll be on his own most of stage.

And you think Quintana will pull a Landis or something?

Just because he drops Dumoulin doesn't mean he is going solo. Put a teammate in the break. Ride a pace to allow Nibali or other contenders to stay with him. The problem for Dumoulin is his team won't be able to chase a stage like this. He could get help from other teams but it will be a challenge if he gets dropped on Mortirolo which suits Quintana.

 

[Mr.White]

The race is wide open. 2,5min is a hard task against a guy who finished 30sec down on Blockhaus. It's not impossible of course, cause Dumoulin's team is weak, and also he should fade a little in the high mountains in the 3rd week. I guess Nairo will break him somewhere, but he needs to break him hard, cause in the last TT he will lose significant time again. Also, he must watch Nibali and others, they could benefit from his work. Wide open race to me.

 

[Cookster15]

Great ride by Dumoulin confirming the strength he showed on Blockhaus and also dispelling any doubts his TT had suffered at the expense of his climbing. It is game on but this Giro suddenly got exciting. Where are all those premature doubters after Etna now? The climbers have no choice but to attack!

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

Tom D has no team for multimountain stages, that will be a serious issue... I don't think it would be a problem for movistar.

Well, that's a bit harsch. Ten Dam and Preidler are stronger than just Lawson Craddock (Vuelta 2015).

But he will miss Kelderman...Kelderman was so crucial.

As long as Dumoulin does not get isolated like he did in the Vuelta and can climb with Mollema, Pinot and maybe Thomas he should get some help from other teams. But if a few riders or even one get away with Quintana that could be a problem. Dumoulin also has another TT so I would say at this point there is more pressure on Quintana. Movistar will have to try and make Dumoulin's team work before they get to the mountains or at least not wait until the last climb. It will be interesting to see what they do tactically.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Lol, despite the fact i said like 133x Nibali is past his prime, he's in the mix. And well in the mix!

I think you and me both never got over the fact that Nibali seems unable to reach the level he had in 2014. But he's still very good.

Neither did Contador his 2009. It's the nature of things.

 

[Velolover2]

Another problem for Quintana is the descents.

Shouldn't Big Tom, a much heavier rider, be able to limits his loses on those?


This is the GC, bear in mind. Tom has almost 2:30 on Quintana.

 

[toolittle]

Re: Re:

Top 10

Isn't it safe to say that it's between Quintana and Big Tom? I don't think any of the other riders can take 2:30+ minutes on Dumoulin.

Quintana needs to win at least two more stages. Bonus seconds could be crucial.

Top 5 should be almost settled. Can't see the likes of Jungles and below being competitors and they are way over a minute behind the rest.

And with Blockhaus, the hardest MTF, gone.. how is Quintana going to gain 3 minutes (with a last TT in mind)? Not saying it is impossible, just very very very hard.

Tom must be dropped on stelvio imo, umbra is too late.

Last ITT is all going down. Favor Tom more. Quintana needs 3 minutes.

 

[woodburn]

Re: Re:

Top 10

Isn't it safe to say that it's between Quintana and Big Tom? I don't think any of the other riders can take 2:30+ minutes on Dumoulin.

Quintana needs to win at least two more stages. Bonus seconds could be crucial.

Top 5 should be almost settled. Can't see the likes of Jungles and below being competitors and they are way over a minute behind the rest.

And with Blockhaus, the hardest MTF, gone.. how is Quintana going to gain 3 minutes (with a last TT in mind)? Not saying it is impossible, just very very very hard.

Krujiswijk and Thomas certainly can finish top five, especially if Krujiswijk peaks as usual in third week.

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

Top 10

Isn't it safe to say that it's between Quintana and Big Tom? I don't think any of the other riders can take 2:30+ minutes on Dumoulin.

Quintana needs to win at least two more stages. Bonus seconds could be crucial.

Top 5 should be almost settled. Can't see the likes of Jungles and below being competitors and they are way over a minute behind the rest.

And with Blockhaus, the hardest MTF, gone.. how is Quintana going to gain 3 minutes (with a last TT in mind)? Not saying it is impossible, just very very very hard.

Tom must be dropped on stelvio imo, umbra is too late.

Yeah, I think Quintana can drop Dumoulin on any climb he wants to. The real battle will be whether Movistar can turn their superior team strength into a several minute advantage on one stage. Sunweb need to be so alert at getting riders in the break if Dumoulin wants a chance of defending in the final week.

This - Riders in the break give Dumoulin protection if he gets dropped in the second last mountain - Had Sunweb put a rider in the break in the 2015 Vuelta, Dumoulin probably wins that Vuelta seeing he was only 15 or 20 seconds behind when they went over the last mountain.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Regardless of the results, general opinion is that tt profile was deceiving.

Not sure where you saw that but it looked hard from the beginning!
That's what I read as well. just saying!

 

[alspacka]

Re: Re:

Tom D has no team for multimountain stages, that will be a serious issue... I don't think it would be a problem for movistar.

Well, that's a bit harsch. Ten Dam and Preidler are stronger than just Lawson Craddock (Vuelta 2015).

But he will miss Kelderman...Kelderman was so crucial.

I kept an eye on Ten Dam's timing today hoping he would cruise around at Pelucchi pace. Seems he put some effort in though for some reason.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

People who say he pulled a Wiggins have no clue hwat they are talking abot. They have no eyes in their head either.

You don't see any parallels between Wiggins's 2012 Tour performance, where he climbed very well and also dominated the TT's?

No, because Wiggins dropped 10 Kilos plus, became ultra ultra skinny and yet had the same power as he had before. Dumolin simply improved in the mountains and kept his weight and power.

Dumoulin has dropped weight ..the man himself said so ..Plus Wiggins improved slowly in mountaisn too
They are very similiar riders ...but go ahead SKy haters see what you want

You never read well. Dumoulin said he had the same weight as Vuelta 2015. So he dropped nothing. He lost weight compared to last year when he focussed on ÏTT's. But compared to Vuelta 2015 he lost nothing. 0.0, NADA. Still 70kg. So let that stupid myth die please.

 

[ice&fire]

Re:

Another problem for Quintana is the descents.

Shouldn't Big Tom, a much heavier rider, be able to limits his loses on those?


This is the GC, bear in mind. Tom has almost 2:30 on Quintana.

Descents are not a problem for Quintana. Just recall what he did in Stelvio. When the group realised he was ahead he had an advantage of 50 seconds. He got to Prato more than 2:30 ahead of the group.

 

[huangho]

What if...
What if...
What if...

Sky decides to protect Tom D and helps Sunweb on multimountain stages, in order to tire NQ and favour CF on TdF?? That's not so crazy to think ATM!!

 

[alspacka]

People who say he pulled a Wiggins have no clue hwat they are talking abot. They have no eyes in their head either.

You don't see any parallels between Wiggins's 2012 Tour performance, where he climbed very well and also dominated the TT's?

No, because Wiggins dropped 10 Kilos plus, became ultra ultra skinny and yet had the same power as he had before. Dumolin simply improved in the mountains and kept his weight and power.

Dumoulin has dropped weight ..the man himself said so ..Plus Wiggins improved slowly in mountaisn too
They are very similiar riders ...but go ahead SKy haters see what you want

You never read well. Dumoulin said he had the same weight as Vuelta 2015. So he dropped nothing. He lost weight compared to last year when he focussed on ÏTT's. But compared to Vuelta 2015 he lost nothing. 0.0, NADA. Still 70kg. So let that stupid myth die please.

Maybe he has slightly more muscle and lower fat %? He looks a bit more gaunt in the face to my eye.