Giro 2017, stage 10: Foligno - Montefalco 39,8km (ITT)

[alspacka]

Ladies and gents, we have a race on our hands!

Stelvio stage will be beautiful, without doubt.

 

[Escarabajo]

So the Giro is in the bag for Tom, huh?

 

[meat puppet]

Good for the race. Expected a gap of 2.30 but quintana still has the upper hand imo.

On the bormio stage I think movi will need to put men up the road on the mortirolo, with quintana attacking on the stelvio bridging to them. Those who can will join quintana and the movis, probably just nibali and perhaps only by descending.

Uphill finishes quintana will have to attack too as there is another TT. Dumoulin will probably fade a bit in the third week but will still take serious time in the TT.

 

[Ikbengodniet]

Re: Re:

Big Tom to blow the field apart here and be the new favourite come Tuesday evening. Between the 2 TT's Tom will take 3 mins on Quintana which he will have to claw back in the mountains. He has got 30 seconds already so will have about a further 2 1/2 mins to preserve. It's doable if he just keeps riding to limit losses which I think is his gameplan.

Just as predicted. In fact the gap was even bigger than expected. Dumoulin simply has to defend his position in the mountains all the way to Milan. If he goes into the TT less than a minute down then the Giro is in the bag. So effectively he has 3 1/2 minutes to play with. That should be enough barring a bad day.

He could lose 3 1/2 minutes on the stage to Bormio if Quinanta drops him on Mortirolo. Without a team to chase effectively, he'll be on his own most of stage.

And you think Quintana will pull a Landis or something?

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Big Tom to blow the field apart here and be the new favourite come Tuesday evening. Between the 2 TT's Tom will take 3 mins on Quintana which he will have to claw back in the mountains. He has got 30 seconds already so will have about a further 2 1/2 mins to preserve. It's doable if he just keeps riding to limit losses which I think is his gameplan.

Just as predicted. In fact the gap was even bigger than expected. Dumoulin simply has to defend his position in the mountains all the way to Milan. If he goes into the TT less than a minute down then the Giro is in the bag. So effectively he has 3 1/2 minutes to play with. That should be enough barring a bad day.

Simply? He lost 5 minutes in one mountain stage to tired Quintana at the 2015 Vuelta

But Dumoulin really trained for months this year to start in his best possible condition. He approached this Giro as a GC-rider. He didn't do that in the Vuelta, where he just came back after his Tour crash and was surprised he was in such a good position after the first week.

It doesn't say he can't lose big time on Nairo in the high mountains, but it is far more likely he will perform better on climbs like Mortirolo and Stelvio then he would have done in 2015. His perfomance on Blockhaus was by far his most impressive climbing performance till date.

 

[Winnen]

I actually think Quintana is still the clear favorite. He lost more than I expected but that doesn't really change my expectations for the final result. Still this is really great for the race.

This. NQ is forced to attack, I think everybody likes this.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

I actually think Quintana is still the clear favorite. He lost more than I expected but that doesn't really change my expectations for the final result. Still this is really great for the race.

I agree. Dumoulin has little mountain support and Quintana is a superior climber with multiple mountain stages to come. Chances are Dumoulin ships enormous time at least once. Either way, we should see a real race.

 

[capuldemetal]

i predict havok tomorrow.there isn't much flat between climbs!

 

[Jelantik]

This is why taking Giro-Tour double is hard or almost impossible to do. Now, that Quintana down to almost 3 minutes, not only that he has to attack on every climb but he also has to buffer a lot of time before the last ITT. These will be taxing for Quintana on the last week. Contador got Astana & Aru to drain him before the tour, Quintana has Dumoulin, Pinot, Nibali and maybe Thomas who will drain him in the next weeks to come. I'm afraid he'll come to the Tour more fatique that he would have expected.

Incredible ride by Dumoulin. He didn't loose his ITT power while climbing better (better than TJ).

 

[movingtarget]

Disappointing rides by Pinot, Zakarin and Steven. Nibali's was a solid ride as was Jungels and a very good one by Thomas. TJVG still confirming expectations. It could have been even worse for Quintana. I thought he was heading closer to four minutes down. Pretty good ride by Mollema as well.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Big Tom to blow the field apart here and be the new favourite come Tuesday evening. Between the 2 TT's Tom will take 3 mins on Quintana which he will have to claw back in the mountains. He has got 30 seconds already so will have about a further 2 1/2 mins to preserve. It's doable if he just keeps riding to limit losses which I think is his gameplan.

Just as predicted. In fact the gap was even bigger than expected. Dumoulin simply has to defend his position in the mountains all the way to Milan. If he goes into the TT less than a minute down then the Giro is in the bag. So effectively he has 3 1/2 minutes to play with. That should be enough barring a bad day.

He could lose 3 1/2 minutes on the stage to Bormio if Quinanta drops him on Mortirolo. Without a team to chase effectively, he'll be on his own most of stage.

And you think Quintana will pull a Landis or something?

Well, he kind of did in both of the GT's he's won so far. And in couple of ones he didn't win.

Without the ridiculous Landis bad day before hand though.

 

[Irondan]

I actually think Quintana is still the clear favorite. He lost more than I expected but that doesn't really change my expectations for the final result. Still this is really great for the race.

This. NQ is forced to attack, I think everybody likes this.

He's been forced to attack before and hesitated until the last possible moment, which cost him the Tour. It seems he's in the same position now.

 

[Velolover2]

Re:

Top 10

Isn't it safe to say that it's between Quintana and Big Tom? I don't think any of the other riders can take 2:30+ minutes on Dumoulin.

Quintana needs to win at least two more stages. Bonus seconds could be crucial.

 

[sir fly]

Top 5 still in the mix for the overall. The next 5 tactical nightmare.
Should be exciting.

 

[Jelantik]

I actually think Quintana is still the clear favorite. He lost more than I expected but that doesn't really change my expectations for the final result. Still this is really great for the race.

I agree. Dumoulin has little mountain support and Quintana is a superior climber with multiple mountain stages to come. Chances are Dumoulin ships enormous time at least once. Either way, we should see a real race.

Quintana better drops Dumoulin 3.30+ minutes for buffer before the last ITT. But he has to overcome almost 3 minutes down, and put 3 minutes buffer. That's a tall order.

 

[Singer01]

If Sky are smart they will exhaust Quintana by towing Dumoulin around Italy, if he has to go really deep the tour is in the bag for Froome. It isn't even like it is against their own interests, G and Tom are similar styled climbers.

 

[portugal11]

Re:

So the Giro is in the bag for Tom, huh?

Of course not, nairo is still the big favourite

 

[Arredondo]

Re: Re:

Lol, despite the fact i said like 133x Nibali is past his prime, he's in the mix. And well in the mix!

I think you and me both never got over the fact that Nibali seems unable to reach the level he had in 2014. But he's still very good.

It annoys me he has tranformed from an allround, big-hearted attacking champion who was in the mix in nearly every type of race (stage races, GT's and classics) to a rather boring cyclist who only peaks for 1 particular race.

The things he still does in a GT, are impressive. But for me it's not enough to get my sympathy really. I miss the old Nibbles

 

[hfer07]

not counting Tom, Quintana is ahead to Mollema by 15", Pinot by 17" & Nibs by 24" ..... The race is tight!! :surprised:

Like I stated: The real Giro can now commence !!!

 

[Põhja Konn]

Dumoulin smashed it as was to be expected, Nibali did very good, Quintana average or bit below and Pinot completely failed (yet is still very much in the mix).

I wouldn't bet on Nibali improving that much in the 3rd week. When he did show that improvement, he started out being clearly below his normal level, that's not the case this time. During his halcyon years he held similarily high level throughout. He is not at that level either right now, so significant improvement cannot completely be ruled out, but its far from certain he can reach that level anymore. If he does however, he is the favourite to win.

 

[Valv.Piti]

After just one MTF (discounting Etna) and ITT, the time gaps just exploded. Thats how it should be. We got ourselves a race and riders will already try to make that time up tomorrow - at least some of the top 20 guys which are still relatively close!

 

[sir fly]

Regardless of the results, general opinion is that tt profile was deceiving.

 

[King Boonen]

Re:

Top 10

Isn't it safe to say that it's between Quintana and Big Tom? I don't think any of the other riders can take 2:30+ minutes on Dumoulin.

Problem for Quintana is that Mollema, Nibali (and possibly Pinot) can effectively sit on his wheel and make him claw all that time back from Tam, safe in the knowledge that they can likely overturn their deficient in the final TT. He should be able to drop them all, but it puts him in a hard fight.

 

[Velolover2]

Re: Re:

Top 10

Isn't it safe to say that it's between Quintana and Big Tom? I don't think any of the other riders can take 2:30+ minutes on Dumoulin.

Quintana needs to win at least two more stages. Bonus seconds could be crucial.

Top 5 should be almost settled. Can't see the likes of Jungles and below being competitors and they are way over a minute behind the rest.

And with Blockhaus, the hardest MTF, gone.. how is Quintana going to gain 3 minutes (with a last TT in mind)? Not saying it is impossible, just very very very hard.

 

[Climbing]

I told you that this Nibali was the best in a while this early in a GC.
After 2014 of course...
Now we have a serious race, I hope we get fireworks everywhere and early on!